by Ben Davey

The final leg of the offseason tour lands us in beautiful Portland, Oregon. Last year the Beavers finished a dissapointing 60-84, good for last place in the Pacific division of the PCL, and good enough for last place in the PCL. 2009 was really a year to forget if you are a Beaver fan.  2010 should be a different story, and it all begins with the offense.

Last year Portland finished dead last in BA (.251), 15th (of 16) in OBP (.328), 14th in SLG (.390), 14th in SLG (.718), 15th in SB (60), 15th in RS (590) …..I think you get the picture. The offense was BAD last year. Sure you can atribute some of it to the revolving door between Portland and San Diego Padres, where top prospects like Kyle Blanks and Will Venable left Portland with gaping holes in the lineup. Those holes were uhhh “filled” by guys like Russ Adams, Val Pascucci, and Danny Putnam. Well maybe its a good thing that the 2010 Beavers will only return 2 starters from last years horrendous team (Huffman and Antonelli). Unlike the 2009 edition, you can use words like “athletic, speedy, talented, and FUTURE,” to describe members of the 2010 Beaver team. At the very least the Beaver team should begin the year with a fairly talented group of batters looking to beef up their stats before getting a shot in Petco.

Your 2010 starting lineup (batting, age on opening day):

1 CF: Luis Durango (Switch, 24) In 2009 Portland stole 60 bases as a team. In 2009 Durango stole 44 bases by himself. Durango is your prototypical leadoff hitter. He has tremendous speed, hits for a good average, can draw a walk, and is probably one of the best drag bunters in baseball. Durango sports a career .328/.422/.385 line, which is impressive for a leadoff hitter. Durango needs to keep on doing what he is doing, get on base, steal bases, score runs; however Beaver fans beware if he is going to be more than a speedy PR in the big leagues he needs to hit for SOME sort of power. Durangos 3 lifetime HR in 406 minor league games, is a problem, but for right now speed and a solid group behind him will help Durango be top 10-20 in BA, OBP, SB, and RS.

2 SS: Lance Zawadzki (switch, 24) Madfriars #7 prospect, he has the potential to be a 5 tool prospect. But of course potential is a big word. He hit 15 HR and stole 17 bases last year and has the potential for more. .285/.369/.456 last year and should improve upon that in the hitter friendly PCL. He is an above average defender at both 2nd and short, and the only thing keeping him from being the future Padres 2B/SS is averaging a K a game. If he can improve on pitch selection he will become a household name in both Portland and San Diego pretty quickly. For 2010 look for good average, power, speed, and good D.

3 3B: Logan Forsythe (RHB, 23) Madfriars #5 prospect. Yes there are talks everywhere about Forsythe moving to 2B, but for the 2010 season he will mainly be a 3B. Of the 4 major 3B (Headley, Forsythe, Darnell, and Rincon) he is probably the best defender at 3rd (although he is maybe a tick above average). Offensively he is SANDY BALL…aka patiently aggressive. Last year hit .300/.429/.440 across 2 leagues, while being top 5 in all of baseball in walks (102). He also stole 11 bases and hit 11 HR. He has always been a high BA high OBP guy. The big question is does he have enough power to stay at 3B, or better yet does he have enough power to stay at 3rd when Darnell is breathing down his neck? Whether or not he remains at 3rd is a different topic, but look for high BA, high OBP, and some amount of power and speed out of this top prospect.

4 RF: Aaron Cunningham (RHB, 23) Here is the big question with Cunningham 4A suspect, or MLB prospect? He has given his time in the PCL spending most of the last year and a half going against the Beavers as a member of the Sacramento River Cats. Last year in 83 PCL games he hit .302/.372/.479 11 HR, 11 SB…which was a tick under his average numbers in the minors. The only problem is in 45 big league games (over 2 years) Aaron has given a .211/.271/338 line. Many scouts think this is just due to his lack of playing everyday, but we wont know till he starts for the Padres. As of right now he is slated to be the Beavers RF but he could beat out Wil Venable which would put Will in this spot. If it is Aaron though expect similar numbers to last year, which would have ranked him as Portlands best hitter last year haha.

5 LF: Chad Huffman (RHB, 24) Huffman far and away led the Beavers in HR last year with 20, and also won the PCL HR derby. He has MLB power, the question is does he have the BA and OBP that can translate to the bigs. Maybe he just needs some protection, we will see when the season begins, but look for Chad to be near the front in HR.

6 1B: Craig Cooper (RHB, 25) Cooper led the Missions last year in almost every stat hitting .312/.405/451 in the tough Texas League. Cooper has a pretty good eye at the plate and hits for a good average. Baring severe injuries he should be the starting 1B for the entire year in Portland, and wouldnt be surprised if he is there for the next couple years.

7 C: Mitch Canham (LHB, 25) (also Dusty Ryan) Canham was billed, and might still pan out to be a Jason Kendell type of catcher. When he was drafted and up through last year we heard “good BA, great eye, some power, surprising speed, needs to work on D” Well we didnt see much, if any of that last year in SA where he hit .263/.339/.371. The talent and ceiling is still there the question is will he hit well enough to start, and whether his D is passable. If not/splitting time will be Dusty Ryan who hit .257/.359/.455 in the nonhitter friendly IL (AAA).

8 2B: Matt Antonelli (RHB, turns 25 on opening day) 2 years ago, a fan asked Keith Law who would you rather have Dustin Pedroia (after his rookie year) or Matt Antonelli who had just come off a year where he hit .307/.404/.491 in High A and AA. Well Law said he would rather have Antonelli, because he thought Matt would be a more complete player with average, power, and speed. Hmmm…. as Padre fans dont we wish we could have made that trade. Matt has struggled and batled injuries the past 2 years and he went from #2 prospect in the Padres org and top 50 overall, to playing for a starting job. Anton has the talent and the ceiling to be an all star 2B in the major leagues, unfortunately this is his last chance to show to the Padres and the Beavers that he has any chance of reaching that ceiling. IF he can than wow! if not…well it just becomes another sad story of a Padre bust.

Also making appearance will be Mike Baxter, Bret Dowdy, and Sean Kazmar, who everyone knows from last year. Any way you look at it HUGE improvement from last year, as the Padres great drafts in 07-09 are reaching AAA and soon to be the majors. I’ll finish off with the pitchers *gulp* at the end of the week, and then get to sleepers/picks to click (thanks Hawk CWS) in the next few weeks.

by Daniel Gettinger

Question of the week: Spring Training has barely begun, and already the Adrian Gonzalez trade rumors are in full swing. What are the odds that Gonzalez makes it through the entire 2010 season as a member of the Padres?

My response:

The San Diego Padres are very likely to trade Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a good player, paid like a mediocre player, and not at all overrated. Which is exactly why the Padres should trade him. As he is in the prime of his career, and his contract only runs through 2011, Gonzalez provides optimal value to a team built to compete over the next two seasons. The Padres are not such a team. They are most likely to compete from 2011-20??. Gonzalez will fetch a package of good, young players. Trading him will greatly accelerate the rebuilding process.

Every year MadFriars.com publishes its annual Top 20 Prospect rankings which is usually picked up by all five of the San Diego Padres’ affiliates for use on their websites and in their programs (the AZL Padres do not have a website). This year a condensed version of the article is also scheduled to run in several newspapers.

As with last year we interviewed the two authors, Denis Savage and John Conniff, who between them visit every site and interview nearly every Padres’ prospect, coach, scout, manager and front office personnel - and maybe even this year a few of the batboys.

This is part III, the final section, of our interview.  Part I can be found here, and part II here.  Thanks again to John and Denis for answering our questions!

Former 1st round picks Schmidt, Dykstra, Carrillo, and Antonelli were all ranked within 6 spots of each other in Denis’ rankings.  What are the chances that any of them live up to their former potential?  What are the chances that any of them become productive MLB players?

John: I would take Dykstra. A big part of his struggles had to do with two factors. One, because of his size and power in college he saw a steady diet of outside pitches which led him to somewhat “dive” into the ball and become vulnerable to the inside pitch. In the off-season the team really worked with him on changing many parts of his swing but an off-season injury to his wrist, always a tricky injury, really got him off to a bad start.

In August everything finally came together with a .319/.432/.505 line. Also better umpiring is going to help him to as he moves forward. I think with a healthy off-season and coming back to California he could do some damage.

Denis: I would take Schmidt first, Dykstra second, Antonelli third and Carrillo last. Wait a second – am I that predictable or if you look long enough is there a pattern everywhere?

Schmidt has been the first guy coming off Tommy John who was absolutely praised to me in all facets by the staff who handled his recovery. I don’t recall anyone being spoken about so glowingly in their recovery. That speaks volumes to me. He is working at it. When others see it, that warrants consideration.

I think Dykstra committed to changing his approach. He struggled through things along the way and didn’t revert back. Sticking with it through the tough times says a lot about his character. He is willing to suffer now, knowing it will help him in the future.

Plenty of people are not on the Antonelli wagon. I am. I don’t know why or how or when, but it is my belief that Antonelli will break out in a big way. We will laugh about it – or he may just laugh at us.

Carrillo doesn’t have what I call a killer instinct. If you look at him, you get the feeling he is nonchalant about the whole thing. I don’t really believe it is true, but lasting impressions are everything. I think he had such innate ability that he took a lot for granted. Whether he goes Tim Stauffer on us and rebounds by working his tail off remains to be seen. His numbers say that isn’t happening.

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Every year MadFriars.com publishes its annual Top 20 Prospect rankings which is usually picked up by all five of the San Diego Padres’ affiliates for use on their websites and in their programs (the AZL Padres do not have a website). This year a condensed version of the article is also scheduled to run in several newspapers.

As with last year we interviewed the two authors, Denis Savage and John Conniff, who between them visit every site and interview nearly every Padres’ prospect, coach, scout, manager and front office personnel - and maybe even this year a few of the batboys.

This is part II of our interview.  Part I can be found here, and part III will run tomorrow…

Please tell us something that will keep us from completely jumping off the Cedric Hunter bandwagon.

John: I can’t really help you there. In my opinion the best case scenario is that Hunter turns into Tony Gwynn Jr., only without the on-base skills and defense.

I know that sounds harsh and I had ranked as the Padres number one prospect going into 2009 based on his performance with the Storm, his age and most importantly the progress that I believed he would make in AA.

In San Antonio he was still able to put the bat on the ball, he only struck out 43 times in 566 plate appearances, but he also only had 28 extra-base hits and 25 walks. There are many external factors behind his struggles, tough park to hit in, better and more experienced pitching but the dominant factor was Hunter’s lack of selectivity at the plate.

Hunter is still very young, he will only be 22 going into this season. But in order for him to succeed he is going to have to fundamentally change his game, learn to work counts, drive the ball and become more of a threat when he gets on base. He could do it, and I could certainly be wrong, but making that drastic a change at the AA level is very difficult.

Denis: Well, I have some disagreements here. I think Hunter could hit .300 in the big leagues with some pop.

He needs to get stronger – there is no doubt about that. He needs to really work the weight room and he has the frame to add muscle and sustain it. As John mentioned, he also needs to be more selective. I asked this question to the Padres brass after 2008 and was rebuffed – I wondered if he made too much contact and was swinging outside the zone. The response I received was you could get away with it for a while but not over a full season.

They were wrong. I was right. Sometimes you look back and wish you stuck with your gut. Other times you wish you were swayed by something someone said. I have been in both categories and have also stuck to my guns and been rewarded.

Back to Hunter – he needs better pitch selection. Swinging outside the zone has resulted in weak contact. He has such amazing hand-eye coordination that Hunter could be deadly – if he was swinging at the right pitches. I think he can be taught and perhaps that is the difference between John and I. I think he can parlay impressive bat control into something more. He is a smart kid. He has listened to the wrong people at times but is coming around. I still have hope.

Read the rest of this entry »

Every year MadFriars.com publishes its annual Top 20 Prospect rankings which is usually picked up by all five of the Padres’ affiliates for use on their websites and in their programs (the AZL Padres do not have a website). This year a condensed version of the article is also scheduled to run in several newspapers.

As with last year we interviewed the two authors, Denis Savage and John Conniff, who between them visit every site and interview nearly every Padres’ prospect, coach, scout, manager and front office personnel - and maybe even this year a few of the batboys.

Seriously, the MadFriars.com rankings is the most comprehensive anyone will find in print and on the Internet because it takes into account not only what got the players onto the list, but also what can take them off.

Additionally, as everyone will see in the interview, there is a reason that they live three thousand miles apart.

What is your opinion on the new management’s apparent desire to de-emphasize scouting and development in Latin America?

John: I’m not sure if they are de-emphasizing the program, they just didn’t sign someone of the stature of Adys Portillo this year. Its great that the team has more of a presence in Latin America, especially the Dominican Republic than before, but it is also the area of development which also has the most risk. Remember the players that are being scouted are around 14 or 15 and sign with a big league team at 16; so projecting what they may or may not be six or seven years is incredibly difficult.

Denis: As John mentioned, I don’t believe this is true. The divorce of John Moores had an effect on how the Padres acted during the signing period last year, but Randy Smith has also been very active in waiting the market out. He signed Engel Beltre – thought to be one of the top prospects – for much less than he originally wanted. He has also added Yoan Alcantara and Ramon Mercedes – two high profile hitters that have significant ceilings. I think we have to wait before making a determination on the future of the Padres efforts in Latin America.

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by Daniel Gettinger

The St. Louis Cardinals have reportedly signed second baseman Felipe Lopez.  According to MLB Trade Rumors, the deal is for one year at a base salary of $1MM, plus some “easily attainable performance bonuses that could be worth up to $1.2MM.”  In all, the deal looks like it will be worth no more than $2.2MM.

David Eckstein is the San Diego Padres presumed second baseman.  He is a terrible player.  His fielding and batting are both below average.  Essentially, Eckstein is a replacement level player at this point in his career.

Felipe Lopez is a pretty solid player.  He was excellent last season, posting a WAR of 4.6, but regression should be expected.  2009 was a career year for him, and constituted a significant improvement upon his 2008 and 2007 seasons in which he posted WAR’s below 1.0.  The projection systems see Lopez as approximately a 2.0-2.5 WAR player in 2010, but it should be noted that the variance around Lopez’s expected WAR is probably larger than for most players.

Even though Lopez’s 2010 performance is somewhat uncertain, he would have been a great signing for the Padres.  Lets assume the Padres could have signed him for $3MM guaranteed–a significant raise over what the Cardinals will be paying him.  Even at a 1.0 WAR season–well below Lopez’s expected WAR–the signing would be a value relative to the $3.5MM/win players have been signing for this off-season.  A 2.0 WAR season–the lower end of his expected performance range–would place the Lopez signing at $1.75MM/win, an absolute steal.

Because David Eckstein is so bad, Lopez would have been a large marginal improvement.  Given the low risk of the signing, the Padres should have inked him to a one-year deal.  That the club did not take advantage of an opportunity to improve the team at such a low expense is somewhat puzzling.

by Daniel Gettigner

This week I was asked whether the San Diego Padres should sign Braden Looper.  My response was “no”:

Braden Looper may have won fourteen games in 2009, but he was not any good. He struck out very few batters (4.6 K/9), while allowing a lot of homeruns (1.8 HR/9). Looper is very hittable, and does not project to be much better than replacement level going forward. The Padres may not have an ace on staff, but they do have an abundance of players who are near league-average pitchers. The players currently under consideration for the back-end of the Padres rotation are cheaper, younger, and just as good as Braden Looper.

Steve Adler, from Friarhood, also chimed in.

by Myron Logan

Our pal Mike Rogers has an article at Project Prospect looking at the best college seasons of the past three years.

Mike is also looking for help compiling college data throughout the 2010 season.

by Ben Davey

Two weeks ago I took a look at the 2010 Missions Batting.  Its now time for the pitching.

To put it bluntly pitching in the upper minors (AA and AAA) will be a cluster $&$@. The reason for this of course is the major league team. Having only one spot open in the rotation and guys like Stauffer and Gallagher out of options means players that should be in the majors (Leblanc and Latos) will probably be in AAA, while someone like Luebke who should be in AAA and knocking on the door to the majors will be in AA to start the season.

I am giving 6 starters for SA (below) but am not including Garrison (AAA), Culp, Buschman, Frieri, Faris, and probably a few others. I don’t know where in AAA I will put them (since that rotation will already have Poreda, Leblanc, Ramos, Inman, Carillo, Latos, Garrison) but I guess I will worry about that in a couple weeks when I do Portland.

Last year the Missions finished 3rd in pitching (thanks in part to the extremely pitcher friendly home field), but were also 2nd in K’s and 2nd in WHIP.  I would be shocked if this team is not #1 in pitching next year.

Details after the jump…

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by Daniel Gettinger

The guys at hotstove.com recently asked me, and a few other Padres bloggers whether the Padres should “take a flyer on Jermaine Dye if he could be had at a bargain bin price.”

This was my response:

Signing Jermaine Dye makes no sense for the Padres. Dye still has an above-average bat, but his defense is so poor that he is no more than a bench player in the National League. While the Padres’ outfield is not overly impressive, Dye does not necessarily constitute an improvement over any of the players currently under contract. Dye is most valuable to a playoff contending team looking for a bit more power off the bench, or to a team in desperate need of a designated hitter. He is not a good fit for the Padres.

Geoff Young and Steve Adler also weighed in with a similar conclusion.