BRIEF Miguel Tejada Analysis

July 29th, 2010  |  Published in Daniel Gettinger, San Diego Padres, baseball, roster moves

by Daniel Gettinger

Miguel Tejada is not a good player anymore.  He doesn’t hit that well, and he doesn’t field that well.  But the San Diego Padres did not give up much to get him, as Wynn Pelzer looks unlikely to become anything more than a middle reliever.

Tejada provides some depth in the infield, and looks to be a slight marginal upgrade.  But hey, when you’re in the playoff hunt in late July, a slight marginal upgrade could make the difference in the end.

Latos Is Good…But Not This Good

July 25th, 2010  |  Published in Daniel Gettinger, Mat Latos, San Diego Padres, baseball  |  6 Comments

by Daniel Gettinger

Mat Latos has had a fantastic season.  He has struck out 106 batters compared to only 30 walks in 112 innings pitched.  His 2.48 ERA is accompanied by 11 wins to 4 losses.  Not bad for a second year pitcher.

Latos has great stuff.  His 94 mph fastball is 1.63 runs above average per 100 pitches, and he throws it about 60 percent of the time.  His slider is actually better on a per-pitch basis–2.82 runs above average per 100 pitches–and is thrown one quarter of the time.  Latos’s change-up, his next most frequently thrown pitch is also over a run per hundred pitches above average.

Basically, Latos is young, has good stuff, and has learned how to use that stuff effectively.

The thing is, as good as Latos has been, he has not been 2.48 ERA good.  His FIP stands at 3.35, and his xFIP is 3.51.  Both numbers are incredibly solid, but suggest that Latos has been a bit lucky this season.

The main driver has been a ridiculously low BABIP.  Latos’s BABIP is a miniscule 0.251, fourth lowest in the National League amongst Fangraph’s qualified pitchers.

Latos has also been great at stranding runners, rather than allowing them to score.  His 84.2 percent strand rate is also fourth lowest in the National League (Wade LeBlanc at 85.7 percent leads the league).

Mat Latos is a solid pitcher, and projects to be very good going forward.  But, a low BABIP, low strand rate, and the wonders of Petco Park have combined to make a good pitcher look like a Cy-Young pitcher.  Latos might be one some day, but he is not there quite yet.

Quick notes: Wily Mo, Miguel Tejada, and the Cliff Lee trade

July 19th, 2010  |  Published in Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, baseball, links  |  4 Comments

by Myron Logan

Busy day for the Padres, as they have apparently signed Wily Mo Pena to a minor league deal, along with the aforementioned extension of manager Bud Black’s contract.

Pena hasn’t played in the majors since 2008 with the Nationals, where he hit .205/.243/.267. He does have a respectable career line of .253/.307/.447. Pena, amazingly, is still just 28 years old, and he’s spent this season playing for the Bridgeport Bluefish.

Pena is your typical shot in the dark acquisition; low risk, (likely) low reward. There’s always a chance, however, that he catches fire with new major league life, and contributes something down the stretch. I watched Pena play in 2006 for Boston, and he was, at the time, best described as a raw talent. When he got a hold of one, he could hit it as hard as anyone, but that didn’t happen all that often.

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MLB Trade Rumors also reports that the Pads are interested in Miguel Tejada, Orioles third basemen.

Pass.

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My second article at The Hardball Times is up; it’s on the Cliff Lee-Justin Smoak deal. Check it out!

Bud Black extended

July 19th, 2010  |  Published in Bud Black, Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, baseball, links  |  1 Comment

by Myron Logan

The San Diego Padres announced that they’ve extended Bud Black’s contract through 2013, with options for 2014 and 2015.

I’ve always been sort of an agnostic toward the value of managers, but it’s tough to quibble with this move, as Black gets everything out of his teams, often outperforming expectations. This year is a perfect example, as the projected bottom-feeder Padres sit atop the National League.

Much deserved congrats go out to Buddy for the job he’s done, and to the Padres for having the sense to keep him around.

Ernesto Frieri sharp in 2010 debut

July 18th, 2010  |  Published in Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, baseball, pitchf/x  |  1 Comment

by Myron Logan

On Friday night, after the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks had long been decided, San Diego Padres pitcher Ernesto Frieri entered to pitch the top of the ninth. Frieri promptly retired all three Diamondbacks he faced – Justin Upton, Miguel Montero, and Mark Reynolds – in order, the last two by way of the strikeout. It was only his third career major league inning, first this season.

Here’s the PITCHf/x data on Frieri’s 2010 debut:

Frieri

Frieri threw just two off-speed pitches out of 14, both curveballs at 79 and 75.6 MPH, respectively. His fastball ranged from 92.9 to 95.2 MPH, averaging 94 MPH.

There isn’t a ton you can glean from an inning, but Frieri’s stuff looked nasty and his minor league track record is impressive. If Frieri can quickly develop into a reliable reliever, it could allow the Padres to trade someone from the pen or – if there’s any interest – Frieri himself for a starting pitcher or a bat.

Cumberland Out For Season

July 18th, 2010  |  Published in Ben Davey, San Diego Padres, baseball, prospects

by Ben Davey

Make it 3 years in a row now for Padres top minor league SS Drew Cumberland. Drew fractured his left patella while sliding into the 3B railing chasing after a foul ball in Thursday’s game. The fracture will more than likely require surgery, a stiff brace, and then a lot of physical therapy all of which would put him out for 6 months. Luckily he should be healthy in time for ST next year.

Tough break for Drew and for the Padres.

None Taken

July 18th, 2010  |  Published in Jeff Caldwell, San Diego Padres, baseball  |  1 Comment

by Jeff Caldwell

“…no disrespect to them, but that’s a team that we should beat I think.” –Dan Haren, on the Pads, April, 2010

Haren v. Padres last night:  5.0 innings, 6 ER, 2 HR

Friday linkage

July 16th, 2010  |  Published in Myron Logan, links  |  7 Comments

by Myron Logan

Shameless self-promotion out of the way first.

You can purchase the 2010 San Diego Padres Trade Deadline Primer for $9.95. I contributed the Padres chapter, and the e-book includes commentary on every team from some of the best bloggers on the net. Check it out!

In case you missed it, I’m writing a The Hardball Times, and on Monday I took a look at our own Luke Gregerson and how he’s found success in the Padres bullpen. I also posted a short piece on THT Live about this week’s Braves-Blue Jays trade. You should see an article up at THT from yours truly every Monday.

Finally, I’ve started a blog on Tumblr as both a place to catalogue my online writing and to share my (longer than twitter, shorter than full-length article) thoughts on baseball. Also, you can always follow me on Twitter.

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I tuned in an inning too late to catch Simon Castro pitch in the Futures Game, but apparently he wasn’t at his best. Jeremy Greenhouse commented on his stuff at The Baseball Analysts:

Simon Castro has a good enough slider, but his fastball lacked luster. A 91-MPH tailing fastball will get hit in the Majors, so he’ll need to cut down on his walk rate. He pitches with very little separation between his fastball and his change.

The Padres placed Mat Latos on the DL, and the whole process has caused some controversy.

Geoff Young created a Padres all-star team out of short (5-9 and under) players. Not pretty.

Tom Krasovic talks about the Padres potentially have insurance on Chris Young’s contract, amongst other things.

Colin Wyers has a thoughtful piece on fielding metrics at Baseball Prospectus. Mike Fast responds at THT.

Beyond the Boxscore discusses the Yunel Escobar trade and the Padres excellent bullpen.

The N.L. Wins the All-Star Game

July 14th, 2010  |  Published in Daniel Gettinger, San Diego Padres, baseball

by Daniel Gettinger

Looks like the Padres will have home-field advantage in the world series!

Does Anyone Care About All Star Week?

July 14th, 2010  |  Published in Ben Davey, baseball, rants  |  1 Comment

by Ben Davey

Baseball is Americas past time because its relaxing, competitive, and fun. Anyone could play baseball, and, it never mattered if you were overweight, crippled, short, tall, etc… give em’ a bat and a glove and you could play in your yard for hours on end. Best of all you could then go home or to a stadium and see your favorite player do the same exact thing. It was fun, and the all star game was like the world series. Even if your team was in dead last and destined to lose 100 games, you could still watch YOUR teams player square off against the best of the best. I could think of no better memory then a game 12 years ago in Coors.

12 years ago the all star break had me glued to the TV. The All star game was in Denver, and I remember watching sports center after sportcenter where all they talked about was the Coors field effect, and how the balls just sail over the fence. The HR derby had the likes of Big Mac, ARod, Griffey, Thome, Castilla, etc… playing in the game. 2 hours before the HR derby even started I remember practicing my best Chris Berman impersonations “back, back, back, back, back, back….GONE” Sure Griffey only hit 3 in the final round and still won 3-2 over Thome, but the HR derby was exciting. The All star game (also won the by AL) became the highest scoring ASG ever. The AL blasted 19 hits while the NL had 12. That might have been the most memorable moment of the year had that not have been the year Tino Martinez struck out on a 2-2 pitch in game 1 of the World Series (oh wait!)

This years all star week on the other hand has already been arguable the most forgettable all star week already, and the game hasnt even been played yet. The only reason it might not be number 1 is because I already dont remember much about the last few years ASG aside from the fact that the AL Won (which they always do). Instead of the likes of ARod, Adrian, Pujols, Fielder, Braun, etc… we saw Chris Young, Vernon Wells, and Nick Swisher. In fact I turned on the HR Derby just in time to see the other CY hit 1 HR and Wells hit 2, then quickly turned the channel before I fell asleep. The derby used to be the place where the biggest hitters face off against each other, and sure they might have all been juiced, but it was fun to watch. Now its draw a name out of a hat and hope that someone is willing.

Even worse then the HR Derby might be the all star game. I know every year a few players decline due to injury, but this year a staggering 16 players (17 if you count Beltre) 16!! Sure a few of them are legitimately injured (Utley, Pedroia, Tulo…) but are you really going to tell me that Mariano Rivera is too injured to play? Or do you think these players might rather fake a “slight” injury and decline to play?

The MLB All Star Game was the greatest ASG of the 4 major sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL) because it was fun,and not just for the fans. Anyone remember when Tori Hunter robbed a HR from Barry Bonds and as they passed eachother at the end of the inning they started laughing? Or when Larry Walker turned his cap around against Roger Clemens? Heck, seeing Clemens face a lineup with Gwynn, Big Mac, Bonds, Chipper, etc… was worth being pumped over. David Price vs Yadier Molina, Martin Prado, and Andre Either….not so much.

Bud Selig with his “this time it counts” was supposedly designed to make the game more exciting because it gave the players something to play for. Instead it turned the game from something fun to something serious. In that 1998 game we could have seen Griffey come to the plate with a whiffle ball bat against the Big Unit and everyone would have laughed. Now, if Pujols does that against CC (oh wait hes not playing), Mariano (nope), Weaver (try again), Cliff Lee (finally), you would have people being upset because “this game means something.” Yes, baseball is a business and competition is great but not the all star game. Save that for August and September or any time a “rivalry” series is happening (and no not Padres vs Mariners). BS Bud Selig, quit changing baseball, and maybe both the fans and players can start having fun again!