Friar Forecast

by Myron Logan

Brian Giles has had a pretty interesting career. His skill-set and his environment have made him arguably one of the most underrated players of this era. And since coming to San Diego, a lot of the talk surrounding Giles has been about his hefty contract and his disappointing play. Giles detractors are, in some ways, right on both issues.

Brian Giles has indeed made a pretty good chunk of change  while playing for the Padres, especially for an organization with a relatively low yearly payroll. And, yes, Giles has not quite lived up to expectations, even after taking into account his hitting environment.

However, in his time in San Diego, he has hit  .279/.380/.435 (121 OPS+), His fielding, according to UZR, has been a little bit below average (about 10 runs overall). Giles, overall, has been worth 19.6 wins above replacement in San Diego, according to FanGraphs’ calculations. That’s around 3.5 WAR per full season (650 PA), which is well above average performance. 

So while Giles has not lived up to expectations – he hit .308/.426/.591 in 5 years in Pittsburgh – he’s still been a very good player. Now let’s quickly touch on Giles’ contract. Since 2004, Giles’ performance, again according to FanGraphs, has been worth about $66 million (that’s counting the negative 7.3 figure from this year, which is debatable). Over that time he’s been paid about $53 million (including this year).

We’ve found that Giles has been an above average player and that his contract has actually been a bargain, compared to what you should pay on the free market for his performance. Let’s look at one more issue Giles detractors like to point out: the trade that involved Jason Bay – I know that Oliver Perez was in it too, but I’m ignoring him in this simplified analysis.

Here’s a chart of Bay’s and Giles’ performance in WAR, since the deal:

Look at that – Giles and Bay have basically been equal in performance since the trade. So much for the idea that Bay has been a much better player than Giles. Ahh, but wait. Bay’s made a lot less money than Giles over that time period. From ‘04 through ‘08 with the Pirates, Bay was only paid ~$9.3 million. During that same time period with San Diego, Giles was paid almost $9 million per year.

Looking back, the trade hasn’t been a good one for San Diego. They probably would have been better off keeping Bay and Perez (though, as others have noted, nobody really expected Bay to turn out the way he did). The fact that the trade hasn’t quite worked out for the Padres isn’t really the fault of Giles. Again, he’s been a very good player, worth more than his contract. Jason Bay’s explosion is to blame for the results of the trade (or, if you’d like, the Padres front office).

My point here is not to do a detailed analysis of that trade back in 2003, or Giles career in San Diego. I just hope that, amidst his terrible struggles this season, fans realize just how good Brian Giles has been. No, he hasn’t been the guy he was in Pittsburgh and he also hasn’t been as valuable as Jason Bay. But he has been a very good player on some very good teams, and I think that’s what he deserves to be remembered for.

by Daniel Gettinger

Yesterday, against the Mets, Trevor Hoffman earned his 18th save of the season.  He did so by throwing only one pitch.

When the bottom of the ninth inning began, the Brewers were leading the Mets 10-3.  Brewer’s reliever Carlos Villanueva retired the first batter he faced, but then got into some serious trouble by allowing the following sequence of hits to the next five batters: Double, Double, Homer, Single, Infield Single.

Queue the bells.

Hoffman entered what was now a 10-6 game, with runners on first and second with one out.  Brian Schneider swung at Hoffman’s first pitch, and grounded into a 6-3 double play to end the game.

I am pretty sure Hoffman is not the first reliever to record a one pitch save.  It might not even be his first career one pitch save.  But it is still pretty cool.  And certainly more interesting than anything that happened in last night’s Padres game.

by Daniel Gettinger

I have no idea what has gotten into Kevin Correia.  Over his past 5 starts, Correia has a 2.43 ERA in 33 and 2/3 innings.  He has struck out 29 batters, while only allowing 3 walks and 3 homeruns.  What is so baffling is there was no indication this was coming.

Over Correia’s first 10 starts this season, he pitched like a fifth starter, striking out 41 batters and walking 25 in 52.5 innings.  He also gave up 7 homeruns.  There was no upward trend in his performance either. Correia was consistently mediocre, only providing two “quality starts” prior to June 6th.

Of course, what we want to know is whether we can expect Correia to continue his success.  Unfortunately, even after scanning the pitch f/x data, and analyzing his starts on a game by game basis, I cannot answer that question.

Correia’s average fastball speed has been trending up throughout the year, but his top speed has remained pretty constant.  It is possible this is due to an increased ability to hold his velocity later into the game. Definitely a plus, but probably not the reason he is pitching so much better.

Correia’s success over the past five games is not due to an increase in strikeouts, but rather a decrease in his walk rate.   In his first 10 starts, Correia walked 4.29 batters per 9 innings, but has lowered that mark to 0.8 BB/9 in his last 5 starts.  Better stamina does not really explain his new found pinpoint control.

The thing is, I don’t know what does explain his great control in recent starts.  My hunch is that Correia has just strung together a couple of good games, and will regress towards his typical performance level.  Correia has been around long enough that it would be odd for something to suddenly click, and his walk rate to plummet.  But it is possible.

Perhaps Correia has been working with Darren Balsley, and made a mechanical adjustment.  Or maybe Correia woke up one morning and said to himself: “Kevin, it’s time that you trusted your stuff,” and made a conscious decision to go right after hitters.  These are things the numbers cannot answer.  We just have to hope Correia did make some type of fundamental adjustment.  If so, a rotation led by him and Chad Gaudin might be a lot better than expected.

by Daniel Gettinger

If you think I gush too much about Chad Gaudin, you should have heard me discussing Russell Branyan a few years back.  He batted 0.197 for the Padres in ‘07, but I liked to point out the very reasonable (at least for that batting average) 0.748 OPS.  I told everyone who would listen that all Russ needed was consistent playing time.  Most thought I was crazy.  To this day, I am still heckled by my friends about my weird Russell Branyan obsession.

This year though, it is me doing the laughing.  Branyan is having a career year, and the media has picked up on it.  The thing is, Branyan is not doing all that much differently.  For his career, Branyan has walked 12.4% of the time.  This year: 13.3%.  His line drive, ground ball, and fly ball rates are all almost exactly the same as his career numbers.  So is his HR/FB rate.  The only noticeable difference is a K% that is significantly lower than his career mark, but almost identical to his 2008 mark.

This season, Branyan has an OPS 1.009, a high mark for sure, but not one that is all that shocking to me.  He has only been to the plate 263 times.  Branyan has a career OPS of 0.832.  We expect players with a 0.832 OPS to occasionally string together a couple hundred great plate appearances.

Nick Swisher is one of Branyan’s closest comparable according to Baseball Reference.  Swisher’s career OPS is 0.812.  His best season was in 2007, when he finished with an OPS of 0.836.  He started that season much like Branyan has in 2009.  In Swisher’s first 204 plate appearances (I am using 204 just because the numbers are easily accessible via split data), he had a 0.433 OBP and a 0.536 SLG, for an OPS of 0.969, not too different from Branyan’s 263 plate appearances in 2009.

Players do not play at their true talent levels at all time.  In 2007, Nick Swisher had a great two months before regressing.  Russell Branyan is probably in store for a similar fate.  The thing is, based on his career performance, we should not be surprised Branyan has hit as well as he has.  Performance is highly variable. Sometimes good hitters have a great year.  Even more often, good hitters have great half years.

by Daniel Gettinger

A few days ago, Brian Giles was placed on the disabled list.  Yesterday, Scott Hairston was activated from the disabled list and took Giles’ place on the roster.  It is possible we may have already seen Giles’ last game in a Padre uniform.

Much has already been written about Giles’ struggles at the plate this season.  But in case you missed all those stories, here is all you need to know: in 2009, Giles has been the worst every day player in the major leagues.  Early in the season, many experts (and also non-experts such as myself) preached patience.  The theory was there was no way Giles could go from being a 4.7 WAR player in 2008 to being the worst player in baseball in 2009.  His poor start was attributed to a combination of bad luck and a small sample size.

But here we are in late June, and Giles has not turned things around.  Maybe his performance has been affected by an injury.  Maybe the sample is still be too small.  Or perhaps age is just taking its toll.  I don’t know.  And I don’t really care.  Giles has played poorly, has not shown signs of improvement, cannot do much to salvage the team’s season, takes up a valuable roster spot and an inordinate amount of playing time, and is not a part of the Padres’ future. Brian Giles should be granted his release.

By releasing Giles, the Padres do not save any money.  They are still required to pay him in full.  What the Padres do save is a roster spot.  They will also able to give their other outfielders more playing time.  As it stands, the Padres employ Chase Headley, Scott Hairston, Tony Gwynn Jr, Will Venable, and Kyle Blanks.  All outfielders.  Blanks will probably be sent back down once interleague play ends, but that still leaves three players (Headley, Hairston, and Gwynn) who should play every day, and a fourth (Venable) who probably deserves a chance at the major league level.  Toiling away in AAA is Drew Macias, another guy that should benefit from an extended stint in the major leagues.

None of these guys are great.  But they are all young, and consistent playing time in the majors should help their development.  At the very least, the team will have a better idea about which of them will be able to contribute in future seasons.

Brian Giles is not young, and will not be back with the team next season.  Even if he were to return and play at an MVP level, his contributions would not push the Padres into the playoffs.  It is too late for that. Considering it is more likely Giles will continue to struggle than play at an MVP level once he returns, there is no good reason for him to remain on the roster.

I appreciate Giles’ contributions to the club over the past six seasons.  He never performed at the level he did while in Pittsburgh, but he was still very valuable, and helped the Padres reach the playoffs a few times. Unfortunately, he can no longer help the Padres.  Even if he was guaranteed to play well the rest of the season, there is still a very valid argument for releasing him.  His roster spot and playing time is too valuable to waste on a sendoff tour.

by Daniel Gettinger

I really like Chad Gaudin.  Yeah he can be wild, but he also has decent stuff, which helps him miss bats and keep the ball in the yard.  Unfortunately, the traditional stats do not paint a pretty picture.  Since joining the Padres, Gaudin has gone 2-6 with a 5.98 ERA.  Amongst NL pitchers with 50 or more innings pitched, only four pitchers have a worse ERA than Gaudin.  Josh Geer’s is just as bad.

Luckily, ERA and win percentage do not tell the complete story.  I believe there is reason for optimism going forward.  Gaudin has a FIP of 4.28, a full 1.72 points below his ERA.  His xFIP, a measure similar to FIP, but which attempts to normalize home run rates is 4.47.  A bit higher than his FIP, but still much lower than his ERA.

The reason for the large differential between Gaudin’s ERA and his defense independent marks may be the scary combination of a high batting average on balls in play, and a low strand rate.  Gaudin’s BABIP of 0.336 is the ninth highest in the NL amongst pitchers with 50 or more innings pitched.  And pitchers with a high BABIP are not necessarily bad.  Tim Lincecum and Cole Hamels are amongst those with an even higher BABIP than Gaudin.  Gaudin’s BABIP should regress towards the mean.

Gaudin’s strand rate is just as bad as his BABIP.  Chad has stranded just 63.2% of base runners this season. Sixth worst in the NL (amongst pitchers with 50 or more innings pitched).  Much like we expect his BABIP to regress towards the mean, so too should his strand rate.  Had a more reasonable percentage of base runners not been allowed to score, Gaudin’s ERA would look much prettier.

Chad Gaudin will never be a great pitcher.  He walks too many batters.  But he strikes people out, and does not give up the long ball too often.  Poor luck has masked what has actually been an okay season.  I see no reason to revise my previous prediction that Gaudin will be a league average pitcher for the Padres.  I urge fans to have similar patience as we wait for regression to work its magic.

by Daniel Gettinger

On Friday, for the first time in Padres history, the pitcher batted eighth in the lineup.  Rookie shortstop Everth Cabrera batted ninth.  The same lineup configuration was used on Saturday and Sunday.  In defending the somewhat unorthodox move, Bud Black explained: “Once the lineup turns over the first time, it gives us two leadoff hitters.”

Black is correct.  There are good reasons to bat the pitcher eighth, but merely saying “it gives us two leadoff hitters” is not very illuminating.  There is more to it than unleashing the mythical powers of the “second leadoff guy.”

In The Book, it is revealed that an optimal lineup will bat the pitcher eighth.  As The Hardball Times Joe Beamer explained, “The theory is that by batting the pitcher in the number eight slot then the number nine hitter has a better chance of getting on base and being driven in by the number two to four hitters (or specifically Pujols in this case).”  The benefits of having more guys on base for a team’s best hitters will outweigh the costs of the pitcher getting more at-bats, and having a few more guys on base for him to attempt to drive in.  Simulations tend to support the “bat the pitcher eighth” theory.

That said, the authors of The Book found batting the pitcher eighth instead of ninth is only expected to add two runs per season.  Not even half a win.  Due to variance, it is even possible that batting the pitcher eighth will hurt a team over the course of a season.  In reality, batting the pitcher eighth won’t help the Padres score many more runs, but it probably won’t cost the Padres any runs either.

Besides contributing to a slightly more optimal lineup, batting Cabrera ninth may be better for his development.  As a young player who prior to this season had never seen action above single-A, Cabrera is still very raw.  Batting him any higher than eighth may put more pressure on him than the team would like. Batting eighth, in front of the pitcher, he might see a bunch of junk pitches, and since he is so young and undeveloped, he may get anxious and start chasing those bad pitches.  Batting Cabrera ninth puts him in a “more natural,” low pressure hitting environment.

I am not sure how much Cabrera’s development will benefit from him batting ninth instead of eighth.  It might not even help at all.  But because batting the pitcher eighth is actually optimal, there is little to lose. It will not hurt Cabrera, and it will not hurt the team.

by Ben Davey

In a completely roundabout way, I ended up looking into the International Signing day that is slated for a couple weeks from now.  According to MLBTR, Randy Smith said that the Padres will sign at least 1 big name.  Now I am almost 100% sure that that big name will not be Miguel Sano.  But a name I did stumble upon is Daniel Sanchez.

This is from La Esquina (ESPN Latin Baseball Blog):

“Last week in Maracay, Venezuela, right-handed pitcher Daniel Sanchez likely established himself as the premier pitcher for this year’s July 2 signing period. In front of scouts from at least 25 teams, Sanchez—a thin, but not spindly-built power pitcher—threw a fastball that ranged from the low to mid 90’s. He threw with almost perfect form and his delivery was very advanced, said several who saw him.

“He will be Michel Inoa of this year,” one scout said, referring to the Dominican pitcher who last year received $4.2 million from the Oakland A’s.

It’s unlikely the Venezuelan Sanchez will receive that much—Inoa was left-handed which is considered a much rarer commodity—but Sanchez should at least get the $2 million bonus the San Diego Padres gave Venezuelan pitcher Adys Portillo last year.

Certainly, Sanchez isn’t a finished product. One scout said his breaking ball, a slurve at this point, still needs work.

“He could have an above average slider,” said one scout.”

Of course the part I left out was that some scouts have questioned whether or not he is 16.  People believe Portillo will eventually throw mid to upper 90’s, but you don’t see a 16 year old throwing 98 (and if you do then holy expletive).  Could he really be 16?

“”He’s way too advanced to be a guy that young,” another scout said.”

He is represented by the Diamond Club which is the same org that represents John Smoltz.  Does that make them trustworthy?  Here is another guy that could develop into a front end starter.  If you are the Padres do you take a chance on this guy?  Give him $2 mil and put him on a similar path as Portillo (start next year in Eugene the way Portillo will start the opening game later this week).  And what about the age issue?  Last year the Padres signed Jeffery Pena to $325,000; he is now being scrutinized for age issues.  If he is found guilty, the Padres would still not be able to collect any of the 325k and Pena would be suspended for a year. (Although I love the quote from Smith: Most frustrating for the Padres is that MLB investigators did not have significant enough concerns with Peña’s age last year to warrant voiding the player’s contract prior to when San Diego paid out the bonus).

Could that fiasco be enough to sway the Padres away from Daniel Sanchez?

I know these are a lot of questions to ask in a blog, but if this guy is 16, with the type of stuff that he has, he could become the next King Felix (and projections), whose name I mainly mentioned because he destroyed the Padres 2 days ago.   From what I can tell he has not been linked to one particular team, but the Padres seemed to be linked (aka the player has had “private work outs”) to almost every player (outside of Sano).  There are probably a good 10-15 players this year that could easily receive over $1 and chances are the Padres will sign at least 1 or 2 of them.  (One such player is Little Uggie, aka Ugith Urbinas son who is 16 and set to sign this year).

If we do sign Sanchez, then I would like to give Friar Forecast some love for “calling it.”  Also keep an eye on Jose Alberto Pena (IF), Wagner Mateo (OF), Victor Payano (P), and Jacob Beltre, all of which are expected to get at least $1 mil and have been linked to the Padres among other various teams.

Finally, props to La Esquina for doing a great job informing me on players I have never heard of but will become household names in a few years (ala Portillo).  It is an insider blog, but is well worth the cost of insider to read.

by Mike Rogers

So, I’ve been absent ’round here, well, all year. But, with the MLB draft taking place last week, my forte comes a’callin’ again.

…But not quite yet.

Until then, Paul Depodesta’s taken a look at the 2008 Padres draftees over at his blog. I also took three looks of my own at the Padres college bats taken this time last year.

After perusing the numbers, I must admit that Logan Forsythe’s out-performed my expectations thus far. I thought James Darnell would be the better hitter, as I liked his power potential and his eye at the plate more than Forsythe’s. But, I’m happy to be relatively wrong as Darnell’s only slightly out-performing Forsythe, albeit at a lower level then Logan.

Allan Dykstra really has struggled thus far, but Depodesta notes that they’ve made some adjustments to his swing in Spring Training and that is possibly the cause. His plate discipline has been great thus far (19.5% BB rate), and I suspect that his power will come. I still like James Darnell the most out of the college bats that San Deigo took last year.

Now, as I said before, my college hitters numbers are on the way, but I don’t have an exact date as of yet (nor a real timetable, either). I have 199 hitters — most of which were draft eligible this year — updated with 2009 numbers. I need to flesh those out with the full conference data, and when I do that, I’ll be able to pen something on the college hitters San Deigo took last week. But I can give you a sneak peak.

The Padres top college bat taken in the 2009 draft was Miami (FL) Hurricane’s catcher Jason Hagerty. He had a breakout season in 2009. Of the 199 hitters I have stats for in 2009, Hagerty’s season came out 20th best as judged by my “score” ranking. He had an adjusted wOBA of .447 (26th best in my 2009 numbers), .306 adjusted Isolate Power (20th in my 2009 numbers), while walking 16.5% of the time and striking out 18.8% of the time in 260 plate appearances. The strikeouts are a little disconcerting, but from what I’ve read, he’s likely to stick behind the plate. So, you can live with some offensive short comings for a catcher, as their bats are often less potent and consistent then other position players.

The problem I’ve got with Hagerty is his past performance. I’m always a little leery of breakout players in their Junior seasons. Let’s peruse his 2008 numbers:

64.56 Score*
.358 adjusted wOBA
.220 adjusted IsoP
7.4% BB rate
25.9% K rate
162 PA’s

* = this score is slightly different then my 2009 score. For the 2008 and 2007 seasons, I have calculated an average wOBA for each conference and then adjusted that by the conference’s average park factor and strength of schedule. I use that to get a Runs Above Average number for each hitter in the conference. For instance, in 2008, the average adjusted wOBA in the ACC was .389 — Hagerty was 4.36 runs below the average ACC hitter in 2008. I take this into account in my score, but don’t for 2009 because I don’t have full conference data yet.

And his 2007 numbers:

22.78 Score
.233 adjusted wOBA
.023 adjusted IsoP
9.0% BB rate
27.0% K rate
100 PA’s

The average adjusted wOBA for ACC hitters in 2007 was .383. Hagerty was 13.02 runs below the average ACC hitter in 2007.

Now, these 2007 and 2008 numbers need to be taken with a barrell of salt. Combined, it’s just 262 PA’s, while he had 260 in 2009 alone. He was a utility man of sorts for his first couple of years before finally settling into the starting catchers role this year. So, sporadic playing time in his freshman and sophomore seasons may have been a big part of the bad numbers. That said, I am always a bit skeptical of players that have drastically improved statistics in their junior years. His improvement in the walk and strikeout department is a very good one and if that carries over to the pro game (assuming they sign him), then I think he’s got some offensive upside. As of now, his ability to stick behind the plate could be enough to get him to the majors as at backup backstop.

by Ben Davey

It seems like the season is going down hill fast, and while I am not abandoning ship until they are officially eliminated, the way things are looking, some changes need to be made.  But what exactly do the Padres do? Do they call up prospects?  If so what prospects?  Do they release their overpriced under performing vets?  Maybe.   Do they have a “fire sale?”  Probably not.  If the Padres do make a trade, or make some moves who will they call up.

Lets start with the rotation.  Who stays and who goes?

With Peavy on the DL and out possibly for the season there is at least one spot open.  IMO that spot will go to Wade Leblanc.  While Leblanc hasn’t put up the flashiest of numbers (1-4, 4.08 ERA), he has been the Beavers most consistent starter.  More importantly he is young (24 years old) and a Padre draftee.  2 things that the Padres desperately want (mainly to show that their farm can produce players).  Oh did I mention he is left-handed which the Padres really haven’t had since Randy Wolf?  Best case scenario he turns out to be a solid #3 starter with an ERA under 4.  Worst case scenario he pitches like he did last year, and the Padres find out that he might be a bust (aka nothing better than a 4A pitcher).

With 4 starters left that leaves Geer, Correia, Gaudin, and CY.  Of them only Correia is on a 1 year contract.  The rest of them are signed for a few years (but of course that doesn’t mean anything).  None of them, aside from CY, can really be viewed as a mainstay in the Padres rotation.  Chad Gaudin and Josh Geer both have ERA’s of well over 5.5.  And that is in a pitchers park.  Gaudin has some pretty good stuff but cant find the plate, and Geer, as my colleague pointed out, is a poor mans Brian Lawrence (when we just signed BLaw).  So my thought is keep Correia if you want (as he has pitched fairly well) but Geer is nothing more than a 4A pitcher and Gaudin needs to desperately work on his control (in AAA).

So by the all star break I see 2 more spots opening up in the rotation.  Who gets it?  Well I am going with top Prospect Mat Latos as a pretty safe bet.  He has dynamite stuff and it would be hard for the Padres not to call him up (and hope he becomes the next Peavy/Ollie).  The other starter however is a toss up, where I think the Padres will look for fresh blood (or go with BLaw).  Names that you might possibly see are former 1st round pick Cesar Carrillo and Tim Stuaffer (who just got called up to AAA).  Walter Silva might even get another chance.  Either way Gaudin and Geer will not be in the rotation in 2 months.

Well what about the lineup?  How much longer will Giles and Floyd be a Padre?  I don’t think much longer.  But more importantly who do they call up.  In a recent interview with KT they talked about giving Venable more PT.  Well as well as Gwynn has been playing I wouldn’t guess that he would lose much playing time, and unless they trade Kouz (or Headley), Chase will still be the primary left fielder.  So when Hairston comes back where does Venable play?  And even more important between Headley, Hairston, Gwynn, and Venable who would get the call if/when Floyd is traded or released?  They wouldn’t call up Blanks/Huffman because they wouldn’t see much playing time.  I guess that leaves Macias who they already have called up many times.  Blanks is deserving, but again PT becomes in issue as everyone “ahead” of him is young and by far a better defender than Blanks in the OF.

The infield is pretty well set with the really only difference being Cabrerra getting more playing time.  The only other disposable position is 2B, and while I am a huge Anton fan, he has yet to show that he can hit in AAA, and I don’t think they would call up Sogard directly from AA.  So unless Anton starts to heat up Eckstein will remain (at least till the deadline when they might see what they can get for him).

The end of the story is by the end of the year I see a rotation of
Peavy (hope he is back), CY, Latos, Leblanc, and either Carrillo or Correia
Lineup looking something like Cabrera, Gwynn, AGon, Kouz, Hairston, Headley, Hundley, Anton, Pitcher

Any other ideas?  Will the Padres stay pat? (and to get to relate it more to the minors, it means that there will be call ups especially in the AA and then High A rotation, with someone like Luebke being called up to SA)