by Daniel Gettinger
I have no idea what has gotten into Kevin Correia. Over his past 5 starts, Correia has a 2.43 ERA in 33 and 2/3 innings. He has struck out 29 batters, while only allowing 3 walks and 3 homeruns. What is so baffling is there was no indication this was coming.
Over Correia’s first 10 starts this season, he pitched like a fifth starter, striking out 41 batters and walking 25 in 52.5 innings. He also gave up 7 homeruns. There was no upward trend in his performance either. Correia was consistently mediocre, only providing two “quality starts” prior to June 6th.
Of course, what we want to know is whether we can expect Correia to continue his success. Unfortunately, even after scanning the pitch f/x data, and analyzing his starts on a game by game basis, I cannot answer that question.
Correia’s average fastball speed has been trending up throughout the year, but his top speed has remained pretty constant. It is possible this is due to an increased ability to hold his velocity later into the game. Definitely a plus, but probably not the reason he is pitching so much better.
Correia’s success over the past five games is not due to an increase in strikeouts, but rather a decrease in his walk rate. In his first 10 starts, Correia walked 4.29 batters per 9 innings, but has lowered that mark to 0.8 BB/9 in his last 5 starts. Better stamina does not really explain his new found pinpoint control.
The thing is, I don’t know what does explain his great control in recent starts. My hunch is that Correia has just strung together a couple of good games, and will regress towards his typical performance level. Correia has been around long enough that it would be odd for something to suddenly click, and his walk rate to plummet. But it is possible.
Perhaps Correia has been working with Darren Balsley, and made a mechanical adjustment. Or maybe Correia woke up one morning and said to himself: “Kevin, it’s time that you trusted your stuff,” and made a conscious decision to go right after hitters. These are things the numbers cannot answer. We just have to hope Correia did make some type of fundamental adjustment. If so, a rotation led by him and Chad Gaudin might be a lot better than expected.
You mentioned this, but it’s been reported numerous times that after Correia struggled earlier this season, he and Darren tweaked his delivery. Balsley and Correia both have credited this for his better control and improved results.
Ad, as you mentioned, whether this lasts is something we’ll find out in the coming weeks.
Well, there have been a number of interviews in wich Bud Black has said that Balsley has worked with Correia’s mechanics and also throwing more offspeed stuff instead of just fastball, slider combo.
If you see an earlier game and the last couple of games of his, you will also note that he’s not “falling over” to the 1st base bag, but his follow through is calmer… Not ala Maddux, but he’s not ala K-Rod anymore either.
Zach and Gabriel-Thanks for that. I must have missed those reports. Or maybe I just glossed over them. We frequently hear reports of guys who are struggling working with the pitching coach on a “mechanical tweak,” but often the results do not improve. Hopefully Correia actually did make some adjustments, leading to the improved results.
Correia has made two changes that have resulted in better performance. 1 is mechanics related. The other is pitch selection.
Watch some video of him early in the season and recently and you will find that he is not turning his plant foot towards first base on follow through.
His momentum still carries him towards first base somewhat, but the plant foot stays pointing directly towards home plate until well after he has released the ball. It makes his mechanics much more controlled and repeatable.
The 2nd difference for Correia has been throwing more curve balls and change ups. He has always had a plus fastball and a plus slider. He occasionally threw a change up and even less often a curveball.
In 2008 he threw his curveball 3.5% of the time and until early June of this season that had not changed much. In the last 5 games he has thrown the curve nearly 10% of the time and the changeup about 10% of the time.
The curveball at 75-76 mph seems to compliment his change up at 82-85 mph and make it more effective.