by Daniel Gettinger
Chase Headley had a terrible first half. Prior to the all-star game, he only reached base 30.8% of the time, mustering a putrid 0.674 OPS. Those numbers would be borderline unacceptable for a slick fielding second baseman, let alone a corner outfielder.
Since the break however, Headley has actually been hitting the ball like many of us expected him to all season. His post allstar game on base percentage is 0.382, and he has slugged at a 0.488 clip, good for a 0.820 OPS.
Part of the improvement was expected. There was little chance that Headley’s was truly a Deivi Cruz clone at the plate. Some of the improvement may also be a function of a small sample size. Headley has only stepped to the plate 193 times since the allstar game was played. That said, I feel Headley is at least an average major league hitter, and based on his solid minor league statistics and his recent success, potentially a bit better than that.
Unfortunately, slightly above average major league hitting does not profile well to a corner outfield position. Combined with the fact that Headley is not a good fielder in the outfield (-11.4 UZR/150 this season, and -16.0 UZR/150 last season), his value shrinks to just slightly better than replacement level.
That is when he is forced to play the outfield.
As a third baseman, Headley could be a very valuable player. Even if he is finds it difficult to make the transition back to third base, it is unlikely Headley will field any worse there than he has done in left field, making the move worthwhile due to the approximately 8 run positional adjustment Headley would receive over the course of the season.
If he is able to regain his previous form at third (most scouting reports indicated Headley was no worse than a slightly below average fielder), he would likely be a league average third baseman. Think Kevin Kouzmanoff with less power, but better on base skills.
Basically the Padres have two league average third basemen on their roster, one of which is masquerading as a left fielder. Headley can be a pretty good third baseman, but he is not a good left fielder. Over the off-season the team must trade either he or Kouz. Because Headley has accumulated less service time, and Kouzmanoff’s value will probably never be higher (after all, Kouz is a gold glove caliber player who drives in lots of runs…exactly what every team needs. Right???)*, Kouz will probably be the one to go. Either way, the Headley in left field experiment needs to end.
*Frequent readers will recognize I am being sarcastic, but in case you are reading Friar Forecast for the first time, or perhaps the first time in a while, I do want to be clear: I do not believe Kouzmanoff should win the gold glove this year, and I do not believe high RBI totals tell us very much about a player’s talent level.
Headley could field worse at 3rd because he’d be getting more chances to field the baseball. His defense at 3rd on minor league splits has him being a positive defender at the position, though, so it’s likely he’d be average(at least) at the hot corner.
I seem to remember talk (once upon a time) of moving Headley to 2nd. I mean, he can’t provide the scrap or grit that eckstein does, but still… there been any discussion about that?
Headley should start at third next year. If the padres can get something worthwhile for Kouz then trade him and if not, have him on the bench because a good bench is important. I don’t however advocate giving Kouz away to a big market team for 100,000 ( a la Gaudin). The problem is that the padres have two talented third basemen coming soon: Forsythe and Darnell. Good problem to have, but the padres shouldn’t make a habit of trying to turn every good corner infielder into a corner outfielder.
Rick-I’m not sure that Headley could handle 2nd. He has not played consistently in the infield for a few years, and while this does not necessarily mean he can’t play second, I just don’t think he has the body for it. Plus, he was not really a great fielding third baseman to begin with.
Kevin-I would not necessarily advocate playing Headley over Kouz at third if they are on the same team.
Headley may be more valuable in a trade simply because he is younger.
But I still think Kouzmanoff will be traded after he wins the Gold Glove.
Kevin, Are you on crack? Kouz has been clutch and he is hitting as well or better than Headley and he plays arguably the best defense in the league. SO why sit KOUZ? Sit Headley and play Blanks in LF. Better O and D in LF from Blanks. Headley would be a switch hitter off the bench. No power, but he may hit .250.
Do you really see Darnell or Forsythe ending up at 3B OR being ready before 2011 or 2012?
I believe I’ve disagreed with almost everything Kevin has ever written, unless it’s a different Kevin, but he’s stone-cold sober in this evaluation. If you have to choose between two basically equal players, then you trade the older player with the higher perceived value (Kouz) and keep the younger player whose offensive production has been equal and whose peripheral stats show that he’s likely to keep improving (Headley, with his much stronger plate discipline).
Neither player has been a world-beater yet, and neither of them may ever be anything but an average all-around 3b. But stashing one of them on the bench instead of trading him for a more useful piece is a poor use of resources. The only way you keep both is if nobody offers you anything decent for either.
People can try to argue that Kouz plays the best defense in the league, but it’s arguing for its own sake. He doesn’t play the best defense in the league. Making plays on balls hit right at you is only part of the story. Kouz has been a very good defender this year, just not the best.
Padfather, I’m on crack? You just said that Blanks should play over Headley for his defense. Blanks has the better bat but its about Kouz vs. Headley. Kouz had the best year he is ever going to have, but Headley is actually a prospect. He was very highly rated and I think he deserves a chance at third base, his true position. And yes, Forsythe should be up middle of next year. He is hitting too well not to.