by Ben Davey

Bill Center wrote a recent article in the UT listing the UT’s top 15 Padres prospects for 2010. While I am aware that rankings are extremely difficult and can change drastically from one expert to another, my problem was not ┬áthat the UT gave rankings, but that they were not the UT’s or Bill Center’s. In fact they were a “consensus.” Bill Center writes “Based on results, potential, and proximity to the major leagues, here is a CONSENSUS of the Padres’ top prospects.

I wonder, who is this consensus? Could it be Baseball America? What about Madfriars (insider article)? Or John Sickles? What about Tops? So I figured just looking at these 4 I would develop an actual consensus and see how they stack up.

Note*** At the time of this post Baseball Prospectus has yet to release their top 11 Padre prospects. In addition I didnt use my rankings, Geoff Young’s, or Peter Friberg’s, all of which should be coming out on Madfriars in the next week or two.

For the consensus I attached 11 points for first, 10 points for 2nd, etc…. 1 point for anyone ranked 11-15 (since that is as far as the UT went but BA and Tops only gave top 10′s).

BA

Madfriars

Sickels

Tops

Total

Donovan Tate

11

11

10

10.67

Simon Castro

10

11

10

9

10

Jaff Decker

8

10

8

11

9.25

James Darnell

9

9

9

8

8.75

Logan Forsythe

7

7

5

7

6.5

Everett Williams

4

5

6

5

5

Cory Luebke

6

8

3

4.25

Edinson Rincon

3

6

4

3

4

Wynn Pelzer

5

1

7

3.25

Aaron Poreda

2

1

2

6

2.75

Rymer Liriano

2

1

4

1.75

Keyvus Sampson

3

2

1.25

Adys Portillo

4

1

Everybody’s average rankings were out of the 4 baseball sites except for Tate who was out of 3 since Denis at Madfriars does not include players who were injured the entire season.

So lets see how the UT did

Rank

Consensus

Center

Difference

1

Tate

7th

6

2

Castro

1st

1

3

Decker

6th

3

4

Darnell

2nd

2

5

Forsythe

3rd

2

6

Williams

8th

2

7

Luebke

5th

2

8

Rincon

12th

4

9

Pelzer

9th

0

10

Poreda

14th

4

2.6

So they only got one dead on, and had an average difference of 2.6. Unless of course I factor in Cumberland who Center somehow ranked 4th (ahead of Decker!). Cumberland appears 14th on Sickels and 19th on Madfriars. Also Center ranked Nick Schmidt 15th when he didn’t appear in Sickels top 30 (was however in other names I considered) and was 32nd on Madfriars. Neither of which is ANYWHERE close to 15th.

I could also get into Center questioning plate discipline, which of course is the one thing every scout praises about him (being a Dominican with great plate discipline is crazy), questions about Decker being able to play the OF, Zawadzki’s “defensive limits” (come on Bill have you seen him play he is a SS who is more than capable of playing 2nd), and a few other things that I could be nitpick.

All in all I am beginning to think that the UT is simply posting stories not because they are remotely accurate but because if they can write a differing opinion from EVERY expert then maybe it will generate some buzz and someone will read them again.

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