by Ben Davey
Bill Center wrote a recent article in the UT listing the UT’s top 15 Padres prospects for 2010. While I am aware that rankings are extremely difficult and can change drastically from one expert to another, my problem was not that the UT gave rankings, but that they were not the UT’s or Bill Center’s. In fact they were a “consensus.” Bill Center writes “Based on results, potential, and proximity to the major leagues, here is a CONSENSUS of the Padres’ top prospects.”
I wonder, who is this consensus? Could it be Baseball America? What about Madfriars (insider article)? Or John Sickles? What about Tops? So I figured just looking at these 4 I would develop an actual consensus and see how they stack up.
Note*** At the time of this post Baseball Prospectus has yet to release their top 11 Padre prospects. In addition I didnt use my rankings, Geoff Young’s, or Peter Friberg’s, all of which should be coming out on Madfriars in the next week or two.
For the consensus I attached 11 points for first, 10 points for 2nd, etc…. 1 point for anyone ranked 11-15 (since that is as far as the UT went but BA and Tops only gave top 10′s).
|
BA |
Madfriars |
Sickels |
Tops |
Total |
|
| Donovan Tate |
11 |
|
11 |
10 |
10.67 |
| Simon Castro |
10 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
| Jaff Decker |
8 |
10 |
8 |
11 |
9.25 |
| James Darnell |
9 |
9 |
9 |
8 |
8.75 |
| Logan Forsythe |
7 |
7 |
5 |
7 |
6.5 |
| Everett Williams |
4 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
| Cory Luebke |
6 |
8 |
3 |
|
4.25 |
| Edinson Rincon |
3 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
| Wynn Pelzer |
5 |
1 |
7 |
|
3.25 |
| Aaron Poreda |
2 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
2.75 |
| Rymer Liriano |
|
2 |
1 |
4 |
1.75 |
| Keyvus Sampson |
|
3 |
|
2 |
1.25 |
| Adys Portillo |
|
4 |
|
|
1 |
Everybody’s average rankings were out of the 4 baseball sites except for Tate who was out of 3 since Denis at Madfriars does not include players who were injured the entire season.
So lets see how the UT did
|
Rank |
Consensus |
Center |
Difference |
|
1 |
Tate |
7th |
6 |
|
2 |
Castro |
1st |
1 |
|
3 |
Decker |
6th |
3 |
|
4 |
Darnell |
2nd |
2 |
|
5 |
Forsythe |
3rd |
2 |
|
6 |
Williams |
8th |
2 |
|
7 |
Luebke |
5th |
2 |
|
8 |
Rincon |
12th |
4 |
|
9 |
Pelzer |
9th |
0 |
|
10 |
Poreda |
14th |
4 |
|
|
|
|
2.6 |
So they only got one dead on, and had an average difference of 2.6. Unless of course I factor in Cumberland who Center somehow ranked 4th (ahead of Decker!). Cumberland appears 14th on Sickels and 19th on Madfriars. Also Center ranked Nick Schmidt 15th when he didn’t appear in Sickels top 30 (was however in other names I considered) and was 32nd on Madfriars. Neither of which is ANYWHERE close to 15th.
I could also get into Center questioning plate discipline, which of course is the one thing every scout praises about him (being a Dominican with great plate discipline is crazy), questions about Decker being able to play the OF, Zawadzki’s “defensive limits” (come on Bill have you seen him play he is a SS who is more than capable of playing 2nd), and a few other things that I could be nitpick.
All in all I am beginning to think that the UT is simply posting stories not because they are remotely accurate but because if they can write a differing opinion from EVERY expert then maybe it will generate some buzz and someone will read them again.
I don’t get why people aren’t giving Sawyer Carroll any love? Other than having an awesome name his ML numbers are sick .300/.400/.483. Is it because he does not put out enough power to play RF? Forsythe has the same problem at 3B but somehow he is making it into every ones top ten lists.
Ben, nice job. I think it is more interesting to see the actual consensus that you came up with, regardless of Center’s article. Will be interesting to add BP in there (and any others) once it comes out.
Steve I am a huge Carroll fan. I think if you can hit over .300 across 3 different leagues in 1 year you have to be up there. Not to mention he also had an over .400 OBP in every league. I think the big knock offensively is the lack of power and the high K #’s. He did still manage 57 extra base hits. He was also old for the MWL and on par with the other leagues so that was probably factored in. s far as Forsythe he puts up similar #’s to Carrol with slightly more power and fewer steals, but I think him being a 1st round pick. Also his home/road splits are night and day and show just how tough Wolff Field is against RHB http://ww2.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=3B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=523253
Actually the fact that Carrol isnt in the top 10 for most shows how much the Padres system has improved. A few years ago Carrol would have easily been top 5.
Just as I try not to get too caught up in team rankings, which are less important than the “bucket” in which most evaluators and other teams put you, I’m not all that concerned with which players rank where on a top prospect list.
Really, Centers’ “consensus” list isn’t a radical departure. 7 of the top 10 players are within 3 spots of the public consensus, 6 within 2. The difference between 5 and 7 or 4 and 6 just isn’t worth anything. If we were working out a trade, no rival GM would say “I want Decker….no wait, Forsythe is ranked higher by a couple unaffiliated analysts, I’ll take Forsythe instead.”
Scouts might have questioned Rincon’s plate discipline when he was in the “true” rookie leagues. A lot of pitchers in the Arizona Rookie League are either over the plate or way off it, so the hitter’s eye isn’t getting tested all that much. But his K/BB rate for Eugene, against a lot of college arms, should put those concerns to rest. That was a great season. Zaws has only played 39 games at 2b as a pro, so I can see where scouts might have some questions about him there. It does look to me like Center might have transposed his defensive limits at shortstop (lack of range, which is a real issue) to second base.
Centers probably has access to sources other than the publicly available experts. He’s knocked back a beer or five with a lot of people who work in the Padre front office or used to. He may still have Grady Fuson on speed dial. He’s been around the game long enough to have some buddies in the scouting ranks. It’s those non-public experts that could explain Cumberland and Schmidt. If I had to guess, which is all I’m doing, Schmidt’s presence on Center’s list is based on Fuson’s input. Fuson loves those strike-throwing college lefties.
BA does go 30 deep per team in their prospect handbook. It’s possible that Centers might have received an advance copy that would have informed some of his choices. But the more questionable placements are probably caused by Centers talking to “baseball people.”
On Sawyer Carroll: He’s a very tough prospect to peg.
Decent but not great tools combined with strong performances, albeit in short stints per league.
Slightly on the old side after signing as a senior, but he’s hit the way a good slightly older player should.
Hasn’t shown a lot of HR power, but has a solid minor league ISO of 180. That’s better than Forsythe, but the power expectations for a corner outfielder are higher than for a 3b.
He was 13th on John Sickels’ Padre list and it wouldn’t be an upset to see him on Goldstein’s Top 11. Peter Friberg suggests he could be a poor man’s Paul O’Neil, and I’d second that (minus O’Neil’s arm). He could also be a tweener, starting for mediocre teams but the type the front office is always looking to upgrade.
He may have been lucky with his BABIP. The old model of estimating BABIP (line drive rate + .12) suggests that he was, with a .384 BABIP off a 19.1 LD%. That model has been somewhat discredited, though. More advanced measures, like xBABIP, require information like spray charts and pitches seen that isn’t easily found for minor leaguers. So he could have been lucky, or his combination of left-handedness, sprayedness, solid speed, good eye, etc. may mean his BABIP was sustainable.
A really hard guy to hang a comp on.