by Daniel Gettinger
With the season looming, I feel it is time for me to share my 2010 projections for the San Diego Padres.
The projections, which will be shared over the next two weeks, are heavily based on a combination of the projection systems available on Fangraphs. I do not attempt to forecast the impact of trades. So Adrian Gonzalez’s projection is based on him spending the entire season in San Diego. Likewise, Kyle Blanks will be projected to spend most of his time in the outfield, rather than at first base.
I will kick off the series with my predictions for the projected starting infield…
Catcher-Nick Hundley
|
PA |
HR |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wOBA |
UZR |
WAR |
|
330 |
10 |
0.235 |
0.300 |
0.392 |
0.305 |
N/A |
1.8 |
Hundley is not a good player. Most of his value is tied to his position. That said, although not much of an asset, Hundley does have a bit more power than the typical catcher. Assuming he is somewhere around average defensively, Hundley will not kill the team in 2010.
First Base-Adrian Gonzalez
|
PA |
HR |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wOBA |
UZR |
WAR |
|
665 |
34 |
0.278 |
0.374 |
0.520 |
0.383 |
3.0 |
4.2 |
Some Padres fans are going to take exception with this projection. Last year Gonzalez hit 40 homeruns, and had a wOBA of 0.402. He was worth nearly 6.5 wins above replacement. But 2009 was Gonzalez’s best season of his career. His previous best, 2006, was only a 3.9 WAR season. Gonzalez may very well produce like he did in 2009, but forecasting such a season would be silly considering what we know about regression. That said a season with a WAR over 4.0 is still very good.
Second Base-David Eckstein
|
PA |
HR |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wOBA |
UZR |
WAR |
|
475 |
3 |
0.265 |
0.329 |
0.341 |
0.300 |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
My lack of confidence in Eckstein is well documented. His bat is terrible, and his fielding is, at best, average. I have a hunch the Padres may end up releasing him mid-season. Eckstein is that bad.
Shortstop-Everth Cabrera
|
PA |
HR |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wOBA |
UZR |
WAR |
|
517 |
4 |
0.260 |
0.343 |
0.369 |
0.323 |
-5.7 |
1.5 |
In my HotStove.com chat, I talked a bit about Everth Cabrera. He is a player that really excites me, but also really scares me. He struggled in the second half of last season, but is overall numbers were perfectly fine, especially considering he made the direct jump from A-ball to the major leagues. My projection for Cabrera is one with a lot of variance built in. He might record a solid 2.5 WAR season, or he might perform close to replacement level. After 2010, we should have a better idea of how good Cabrera really is.
Third Base-Chase Headley
|
PA |
HR |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wOBA |
UZR |
WAR |
|
585 |
14 |
0.270 |
0.350 |
0.421 |
0.340 |
-1.0 |
2.6 |
I like Chase Headley. He has never had a problem getting on base. If he adds a bit more power, and fields his position at an average rate, Headley will be an incredibly solid player. Moving Headley out of the outfield, and back to his natural position was important. Now, in his third major league season, Headley needs to perform.
Up Next: Starting Outfield
Even Bill James is a bit more bullish on Headley.
True, but James is the most optimistic of all the projections. Mine is pretty close to CHONE, which projects Headley for a OBP/OPS/WAR of 0.347/0.421/2.6. Marcel and Zips are also closer to my projection than James’.
I didnt know that Cabrera’s fielding was that bad. I’m wondering if thats something that should improve as he becomes more experienced? Eck needs to go, hopefully Forsythe/Antonelli can come up in june/july and start getting some work at second base.
I think ZiPS is WAY too low–I can’t imagine him getting even worse from 2009-2010, especially when you consider that he’s still fairly young and showed improvement in some key areas in 2009.
You, CHONE, and Marcel are better, but I feel like Chase is due for a big breakout year. I don’t think he’s going to be David Wright or Evan Longoria, but a .360 wOBA isn’t out of the question.
Zach-I agree. I’d say the best way to think about my projection (or any projection for that matter) is to consider it an average value with a decent amount of variance surrounding it. I would not at all be surprised to see Headley exceed my projection.
Kevin-Ditto on Eckstein. But I don’t agree with you on Cabrera’s fielding. Sure the guy has a ton of potential and may become a great fielder, but last season his UZR/150 was -16. That is a very imprecise number, but it is likely that he was below average defensively for a shortstop. Given his numbers last year, it is tough to project him much higher than I did.
Cabrera’s fielding is not that bad. He has plus range and a plus plus arm. Last season most of his errors were on routine balls and came late in the season. In other words, rookie mistakes. Look for him to be among the top 5 or 6 SS defensively in the NL in 2010.
And what is wrong with Eckstein? 2 errors. Turned the DP extremely well. Hit EXCEPTIONALLY well with men on base.
@websoulsurfer
It seems to me that lots of people have already explained Eckstein’s limits. Not much range, limited arm strength, poor hitting the majority of the time, and a clutch hitting performance in 2009 that was out of line with his career and almost certainly not repeatable. That’s what projection systems look for, repeatable skills, not random chance. Neither the error total nor the hitting with men on is likely to happen again. He’s sure-handed with balls he gets too, but he doesn’t get to that many. I haven’t seen an advanced fielding metric yet that says any different.
Bill James analyzed DP rates a few years ago and found that they’re a poor indicator of defensive skill because teams whose pitchers put a lot of men on base — like our starting pitchers did last year — turn more DPs simply because of more opportunities.
Right now Eckstein’s not blocking anybody. I don’t think Hairston Jr would necessarily be any better. But Eckstein’s production on the field in 2009 still wasn’t good, and it’s probably going to be worse this year.
Websoul-I agree that Cabrera has the potential to have plus range, but he is still learning the skill of fielding. As for Eckstein, he has already been discussed in depth. I’ll accept that you like him more than most of us. I hope you are right.
In 2009 Eckstein hit .340 when it counts most for a #2 hitter, when men are on base. I would say that is not only good, its exceptional.
Of the past 5 years, for Eckstein only 2008 is anomalous in terms of hitting with men on base.
Eckstein hit at least .297 in each other year from 2005-2009 and has hit .297 for his career with men on base.
Looks like it is a repeatable skill. He does well at hitting with men on base almost every season.
Fangraphs has a stat called clutch. WPA / pLI – WPA/LI. It measures how a player does in high leverage situations. Eckstein had the highest clutch rating in the ML for a 2B.
In his first year at 2B, Eckstein only trailed Utley in the NL in WPA.(5th in MLB amongst 2B)
Eckstein made on two errors and was amongst the better 2B in the NL in PERCENTAGE of DP turned. NUMBER of DP may not be a good indicator of defense, but PERCENTAGE of DP turned most definitely is.
There are at least two components of defense that UZR does not address: One, “arm”, and two, skill at turning the double play. Both are important in measuring an infielders value to the team in wins.
The only area in which Eckstein was rated below average was range, which is still the most subjective of the fielding judgments.
Once Field FX from Sportsvision has a full season of data, then we can say with some certainty if a player has great reaction time, great range or great positioning.
Until then, its all subjective since none of the metrics actually measures reaction times, or how far a player has to run from where he is positioned, or the speed of the batted ball (the “soft”, “medium”, “hard” used in UZR, & taken from reports by stringers, is too vague and subjective to be useful in statistical analysis), or any of the things that would give us a true range metric.
Until the Padres have the money to sign a FA 2B or Antonelli or Zawadzki or some other prospect shows they can hit, Eckstein fills an important role on the team and does it well enough to be part of a winning team.
@websoulsurfer
So you’re saying that a 43 point spike in Eckstein’s batting average and a 100 point spike in his OPS over his career numbers with men on base ISN’T anomalous?
Eckstein’s career numbers with men on are slightly better than his career numbers, which is the case for most hitters. His OPS in that situation is all of 27 points higher than his career OPS. There’s nothing odd about that; most hitters, given enough opportunities, see their splits and their career numbers merge.
His Fangraph’s Clutch value in 2009 was 1.69. His previous high, in 2005, was .95. He’s had many seasons with a negative clutch value.
What’s at question is whether his 2009, when he was great with men on (but terrible in others, which are still critical), can be repeated. The answer is almost certainly no.
As a team the Padres were at .4 Double Play Runs (DPR) last year, which is smack dab in the middle of the major leagues.
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&type=0&season=2009&month=0
Padre second basemen, which was almost entirely Eckstein, were at .1 in that rating. Again, middle of the pack.
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=2b&stats=fld&lg=all&type=0&season=2009&month=0
I’m not only speaking of UZR. There are many advanced defensive metrics and as far as I’ve seen, they’re unanimous as regards Eckstein.
Any player, no matter how bad, can be part of a winning team as long as the other players are good enough. And I don’t think Eckstein is awful. He wasn’t good last year, but he wasn’t a team-killer. As I’ve written elsewhere on Friar Forecast, I’m willing to give him some leeway if he’s helpful to Cabrera. But anyone expecting him to be as productive in 2010 as he was last year is headed for disappointment.
I am a little bit lower with Cabrera in AVE and OBP.
I’m a bit higher on Headley’s SLG