by Daniel Gettinger

Yesterday I presented my forecasts for the San Diego Padres’ projected starting infield.  Today, I continue the series with a look at the four outfielders expected to receive the bulk of the playing time…

Kyle Blanks:

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

500

22

0.265

0.353

0.465

0.360

-5.0

2.0

More so than my other projections, I nudged Blanks’s numbers upwards from what the projection systems forecast.  The impact is not so much in the rate stats, but in the playing time, and its implications on homeruns and WAR.  My one concern about Blanks is how long his huge frame will be able to take the pounding of playing the outfield every day.  He will probably be fine this season, but I cannot help but think the team is taking a risk every time it sends him out there.  Eventually he needs to move to first base. Hopefully that move occurs sometime this season.

Scott Hairston

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

445

16

0.257

0.314

0.448

0.331

2.0

1.3

My projected WAR for Hairston actually came out lower than I thought it would.  I keep forgetting that he is injury prone and has a large platoon split, thus limiting his playing time, and driving down his value. That said, I like Hairston.  He has some pop and can play all of the outfield positions fairly well.  Hopefully he is able to stay healthy this season, and return to the form he exhibited with the Padres prior to his trade to the Oakland Athletics.

Will Venable

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

472

13

0.253

0.317

0.408

0.320

5.0

1.0

A lot of Padres fans like Venable more than I do.  The IVIE projections at Ducksnorts have Venable getting on base at a 0.342 clip, while slugging 0.437.  I hope I am wrong, but I just don’t see it.  Venable is not a guy I see figuring into the Padres long-term plans, but he should do a non-embarrassing job this season.

Anthony Gwynn

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

428

3

0.267

0.338

0.345

0.310

8.0

1.8

I talked about Gwynn at the end of my HotStove.com chat.  I mentioned Gwynn’s bat is not good, but his glove seems to be.  He has a bit of speed, and if he can get on-base, and field his position well, he can be a solid fourth or fifth outfielder in the major leagues.  A truly competitive team probably would not have Gwynn slated for so many plate appearances, but the Padres could do worse.  My projection for Gwynn echoes my intuition.  I see Gwynn being well below average offensively, but still adding value to the team.

Up next: Offensive Bench


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