Since replacing injured pitcher Chris Young in the starting rotation, Wade LeBlanc has been lights out for the San Diego Padres. In 23 innings he has a 1.16 ERA, a 2.15 FIP, and a 3.61 xFIP. LeBlanc is unlikely to sustain such excellence for the entire season, but based on his performance thus far, there is no reason to think he cannot be a league average pitcher going forward.
LeBlanc’s best pitch is his change-up. He throws it 25 percent of the time, and according to Fangraphs, it has been 5.73 runs above average per 100 pitches so far in 2010. LeBlanc throws his change-up at 77 mph, 10 mph slower than his fastball.
Because his change-up is so solid, I wanted to see how it compared to some of the major league’s best change-ups according to pitch f/x.
I sorted by the 2009 leaders in change-up runs above average (total, not per-100), and selected the top three lefties for comparison. The players with the best lefty change-ups in 2009 were: CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels, and Mark Buehrle.
The following table notes how often each pitcher threw his change-up, as well as some speed statistics:
|
Pitcher |
% Change |
Fast Vel. |
Change Vel. |
Diff. |
|
Wade LeBlanc |
25% |
87 mph |
77 mph |
10 mph |
|
CC Sabathia |
20% |
93 mph |
80 mph |
13 mph |
|
Cole Hamels |
24% |
90 mph |
81 mph |
9 mph |
|
Mark Buehrle |
25% |
85 mph |
79 mph |
6 mph |
The speed difference between LeBlanc’s fastball and change-up is a bit less than Sabathia, but compares favorably with Hamels and Buehrle.
This table highlights each pitcher’s horizontal and vertical movement on his change-up;
|
Pitcher |
Horizontal Movement |
Vertical Movement |
|
Wade LeBlanc |
7.8 |
6.8 |
|
CC Sabathia |
8.6 |
7.5 |
|
Cole Hamels |
7.8 |
7.4 |
|
Mark Buehrle |
7.0 |
3.6 |
Sabathia gets the most horizontal movement on his change-up, but it stays up a bit more than the others’. Buehrle’s change-up has by far the most sink. The movement on LeBlanc’s change-up is pretty similar to Hamels’.
Finally, lets take a look at the pitch flight charts. The charts were created using data from Brooks Baseball, and are pitch flights for each pitcher’s most recent start:
There are slight differences between each of the pitcher’s change-ups, but frankly, they are pretty similar. For LeBlanc, this is a good thing. His change-up is pretty comparable from a “stuff” perspective to Sabathia, Hamels, and Buehrle, three of the top change-up pitchers in baseball. LeBlanc is unlikely to ever be as good as those three because there is a lot more to pitching than just having a good change-up, but it is certainly a start.
Good stuff Daniel. I think LeBlanc is the shortest of these 4 pitchers and that might hurt him (in relation to these 4 studs, not league average). Distance of release point to home plate is important, although rarely studied [See Chris Young (when healthy), with his mediocre 'stuff' and 6-11 height for an example]. I see LeBlanc, at best, as a very poor man’s Cliff Lee… but that is still very good.
Thanks Josh. You’re right, it would be interesting to study release height and deception in a systematic way.
btw, loved the presentation on this Daniel. Have not seen it done like that much.
And very interesting point Josh, about distance of release point.
I too liked the use of the chart, but the reason for LeBlanc’s success at the end of last year and this, according to him, has been improved fastball command; namely he scrapped his two-seamer in favor of a cutter.
http://padres.scout.com/2/958434.html
LeBlanc, before he got to Portland in ’08, relied upon a four-seamer, a changeup that he could throw at a variety of speeds and a show-me curve. People would miss on timing rather than movement.
The Padres believed that he needed to have a fastball pitch that he could throw on the inside part of the plate with movement and tried for a number of years to get him to throw the two-seamer (a type of mini-slider).
It never took. In Portland in 2008 I watched him give up a pair of three-run home runs in the first inning. When he would come up he was unable to control the inside portion of the plate and batters would lean out over the dish, wait for the four-seamer, and crush it.
The cutter, which is a great pitch for a lefty to right-handed hitters, allows him to take back part of the inside of the plate. Watch next time he pitches how many broken bats he gets from using it.
He can now spot his fastball, which is around 86-88, occasionally touching 90, to both sides of the plate setting up his change.
Without being able to throw his fastball to both sides of the plate it didn’t really matter how special his change was; he couldn’t get to it.
Thanks John, great info and really informative article.
It looks like (from fangraphs, anyway) that Wade’s best piches are his change-up (obviously) and his cutter. His fastball still is a significantly below average pitch (-2.56 runs/100 pitches).
Any chance he’ll be able to improve on it, or it is what it is and he’ll have to live off his cutter and change?
Thanks for the nice article. I hope i’m wrong about LeBlanc only lasting a couple of seasons as ML average starting pitcher, and he’ll have a longer career as than.
At this point, when he has better numbers than the two crappy versions of Boomer’s when the Padres paid him all those money, I’d be very happy.
LeBlanc is not a Major League cali9ber player. His ERA and W/L record will continue to show that
At this point in his career he’s a serviceable back end starter. Given his minor league track record, he has a chance to improve. Calling him “not major league caliber” is silly.
LeBlanc has a 111 ERA+ and a xFIP of 4.72. The latter puts him at the back end of NL starters, but some of his neighbors are named Santana, Zito, and Cain.
He doesn’t have much margin for error, and he walks way too many for a guy who throws that soft, but it’s not unheard of for a young pitcher’s command to improve. His walk rate was better in the minors, so it’s not just blind hope. Lots of teams are paying millions per season for starting pitchers no better than LeBlanc.
Still, it’s no wonder that Hoyer is looking for SP. Richard has been lit up in July, Correia should just record a standard interview in which he says “A couple of bad pitches,” LeBlanc is like a man climbing a staircase in the dark with a cup full of water trying not to spill a drop, Garland’s walking almost an extra hitter per 9 over his career average, and they’re going to (rightly) protect Latos. The run COULD continue, but you can see why they’d want to bring in some insurance.
Golly, Tom. You sure have a colorful way of describing the Padres rotation. Thank goodness we have Josh Geer and Aaron Poreda in Portland, ready to move up.