The San Diego Padres, along with the rest of MLB, completed the 2010 draft today. Here are the Padres first 15 picks (full list here):
| Pick | Player | Level | POS | Size | BA | PNR |
| 9 | Whitson | HS | RHP | 6-3, 195 | 15 | 3 |
| 59 | Gyorko | WVU | 2B | 5-10, 195 | 39 | 60 |
| 91 | Cates | JC | RHP | 6-3, 200 | 79 | 80 |
| 124 | Bisson | UK | 2B | 5-11, 185 | 149 | 121 |
| 154 | Noel | Co. Car. | CF | 5-9, 175 | - | - |
| 184 | Barbato | HS | RHP | 6-2, 185 | 144 | 129 |
| 214 | Vanegas | HS | RHP | 6-3, 205 | 46 | 41 |
| 244 | Dore | HS | RF | 6-1, 170 | - | 126 |
| 274 | Spence | ASU | LHP | 6-1, 190 | - | 269 |
| 304 | Slemp | JC | LF | 6-1, 200 | - | - |
| 334 | Guinn | Cal | SS | 6-1, 170 | 156 | 168 |
| 364 | Franklin | SLU | RHP | 6-1, - | - | - |
| 394 | Pena | SJ Coll. | LHP | 6-2, 170 | - | - |
| 424 | Medica | SCU | C | 6-2, - | - | - |
| 454 | Dwyer | HS | 1B | 6, 190 | 167 | - |
Here is the full breakdown:
| HS Pitcher | HS Bat | Coll. Pitcher | C. Bat |
| 8 | 7 | 17 | 19 |
I classified Junior College picks as college players, although some of them have only been in college for a year. In reality, each pick is different and this is just a simple way to classify them.
Anyway, it appears the Padres had a pretty good draft here. Whitson is highly regarded for both his stuff and command. Looks like he has some room to grow and fill out. The risk of the high school pitcher – or the pitcher, in general – is well known, but Whitson looks to be a solid choice.
Gyorko and Bisson, two college second basemen, are polar opposites, but I think they both have a chance to develop into useful players. Cates, the JC pitchers, looks like a nice third round pick. Seems like the Padres reached a bit on Noel from Coastal Carolina, as there are some concerns about his size and bat, but you have to like his speed and athleticism. The middle infielder from Cal, Guinn, could be a steal at pick 334.
The interesting part of the draft, to me, came in rounds six though eight, when the Padres took three high-schoolers, and three guys with solid college commitments. Right-hander John Barbato has a strong commitment to Florida. Vanegas might be the biggest coup if he signs, rated in the low 40s by BA and PNR, but he has a “strong” to “very strong” commitment to Stanford, not an easy place to lure players away from. Dore is committed to Florida State.
The Padres have to convince these guys to pass up an education and a chance to improve their draft status, and they will do that largely with above-slot money. Last year, Donovan Tate got a $6.25 signing money and it doesn’t look like Whitson will be that tough of a sign (my guess, somewhere in the $2.5-$3M range). If the Padres’ draft budget is similar to last year, they should have some extra money to play around with. Hopefully they will put it to good use.
As this post’s title suggest, evaluating a draft right now, especially if you are not an expert, is basically impossible. If history tells us anything, most of these guys won’t succeed. Maybe one or two will become solid Major League ball players. At the same time, perhaps the Padres have hit the jackpot, and picked a future ace or a group of big league caliber ball players. We’ll see in five years.
You want us to wait until 2015? Some of us (not many) may have figured it out for ourselves by then. I understand the problem. You can’t use Sabermetrics since they have no professional past to evaluate, and scouts’ assessment of potential is hit-or-miss because “potential” means they haven’t done it yet. So let me suggest bringing in guest evaluators: astrologers and psychics. Just supply them with date and place of birth, shoe size, favorite color/food/music, or whatever they need, and let the A&P’s give it their best shot. It’ll keep some people busy while the kids develop, and maybe some entertaining future comments.
Good point Larry, who would have ever thought that Joe Mauer, Alex Rodriguez or Ken Griffy – all first or second overall picks – would ever be good?
Nice article Myron. I do think its going to be an “either or” with Barbato and Vanegas, and I would bet on the Padres signing Barbato. Its a little easier to talk someone out of going to Florida than Stanford.
Larry, I am just trying to entice readers to stick around this blog by making them wait five years for me to post my final thoughts on this draft ; )
In all seriousness, you can use sabermetrics (adjusted numbers, etc.) and scouting to evaluate college/high school prospects, I just think the margin of error is going to be that much larger. I’ll look into contacting some astrologers, though ; )
John, thanks. That is unfortunate with those two guys; would certainly like to get both of them. Vanegas is also more highly regarded it appears, so that should also contribute to his higher expected cost.
We should start a fundraiser so they can sign both. Throw as much money as possible at them to get them to sign, especially if you think they’ll be first rounders in a few years.