When Padre fans everywhere rang in the New Year this year, I dont know how many of us would have predicted the Padres would be playing for the NL West crown on the last day of the season? Heck, I thought I was optimistic predicting that the Padres would finish 3rd at 82-80. I am definitely glad that I was wrong.
As we enter into the last game of the year there are a few things working for and against the Padres playoff chances.
The Good:
The Braves have looked dead against the Phillies the last 2 days. The Phills usually toss out guys like Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt, but it was a just turned 23 year old rookie named Vance Worley who crushed the Braves today. With Hamels pitching tomorrow (as well as a possible few inning cameo by Oswalt) and the Braves are in trouble, meaning that even a loss and the Padres will live again.
Mojo: The Padres are riding high after winning the last 2 games
AGon: The best player on either team, he has been smashing the ball which is a great sign for the Padres.
Padres @ SF: The Padres are 7-1 this year at AT&T Park in San Fran
The Bad:
Sanchez: 3-1, 1.17 ERA in September including a ND against the Padres on the 10th where he tossed 5 innings of 1 hit ball.
Mat Latos: 1-4, 6.21 ERA in September including 4 straight losses. He’s our ace but many people are believing he is tired and running out of gas fast.
GAB: Gregerson has thrown in 4 straight, Adams in 5 straight, and Bell in 4 straight. Gregerson still looks perfect, but Adams struggled yesterday, and Bell has looked extremely shaky of late. I know its the last game of the season but how much do these guys have left?
Keys to the game:
Patience for the Padres… Sanchez has been one of the Giants best pitchers, but he is prone to walking people.
Small Ball: Its been the Padres game plan all year, but they are up against a pitcher who hasnt allowed more than 2 ER since Aug 24th. 1 or 2 runs might be the final as 3x a Sanchez game against the Padres has ended 1-0 (Padres are 2-1 in those games). Get em over get em in!
Latos working deep into the game: The Padres have a great bullpen but none of them are as good as Latos when he is on. Quick outs, strike one, and hitting his spots could all be keys to the game, but they are all inclusive for Latos to succeed and get the win.
And the #1 Key to the game, which will arguably be the difference between a 3 game sweep and praying the Phills win is….
Ryan Ludwick: No doubt hitting behind AGon that he will come up, probably multiple times, with runners on base. If Ludwick can drive them in, the Padres will be nearly impossible to beat. If he strikes out, pops up, and does essentially everything he did today…and it might be a very VERY low scoring game for the Padres.
GO PADRES and KEEP THE FAITH
You guys should really set up buttons to connect to Facebook and Twitter. Also, great post.
Richard thanks for the props. I liked your idea so much I created a facebook page for the site. Just search friarforecast or click on this link http://www.facebook.com/pages/FriarForecast/130939470289998?v=photos&ref=ts#!/pages/FriarForecast/130939470289998?ref=ts
It still is in beta as I just created it and still need to have the more artistic side of friarforecast (Daniel and Myron) play around with it.
Also I think Daniel has either already set up a twitter account or is in the process of it. I try to stay away from twitter. Hopefully the Padres will be playing for a few more weeks and we will be able to get everything up and running before the offseason
Ben-your key to the Giant game was to play smallball and when we had the perfect chance with no outs and runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs, Buddy rolled the dice and elected to let Yorveet hit. I know sabremetrics would probably not support bunting in that instance, but it was imperative that we at least scored a run that inning. The complexion and tone of the game would have changed and we may have had a chance. Once Yorveet rolled over to the Panda, we started making tee times….
@Clay
We did play small ball in the first inning, and it produced nothing. Sanchez has been known to walk the entire dugout, but Black ordered the immediate bunt.
For me, the right decision with Agon and Ludwick aboard would be to use a LH pinch-hitters — Venable or Stairs. They’re flyball / strikeout guys, with Venable very hard to double up. Might not have worked any better, but I like our chances.
In the bunt scenario the crippling factor is Scott Hairston coming to the plate next. Would a manager crazy enough to start Shrek have pulled him?
I wonder, if Buster Posey had started the season with the Giants, instead of their retarded loopholing him at AAA until mid-season, would we have even been within a game of them on the final day?
@Mark, one commenter at the SF Chronicle site speculated that if we still had Bochy managing and the Giants had Bud, the Giants would have clinched in mid September. Like your speculation, it’s unknowable.
One thing that perturbs me about Bud, is that for what was expected to be a low scoring game, he didn’t put the best defensive team on the field, going with veterans, just like Bochy. I’d have put Cunningham, Gwynn and Venable in the outfield, and replaced Groin-Pull Tejada with Everth.
Bud’s decision to start Ludwick – Denorfia – Hairston in the final game will forever be a question. You’re right, for all Bud’s supposed willingness to use young players, he chose Hairston’s veteranosity even though he hadn’t hit since May.
No way of knowing if your OF or mine (Denorfia RF, Venable CF, and Cunningham LF) would have fared any better. I can understand not putting the offensive zeroes Gwynn and Cabrera in there. That’s a way to guarantee a low-scoring game. Taking a chance on Tejada hitting one out was worth the defensive downgrade, and Cabrera hadn’t really been fielding with aplomb all year.
I didn’t watch the whole game. It was depressing me so I kept switching back to Redzone. Were many of the hits that fell in the OF within the range of the better defenders? Were there errors?