Revisiting Pre-Season Projections: Infield

October 28, 2010 in Adrian Gonzalez, Daniel Gettinger, Everth Cabrera, projections, San Diego Padres with 4 Comments

Prior to the 2010 season, I published a series of projections for San Diego Padres players.  At the aggregate level, my projections pegged the Padres for 85 wins, but I did not have enough faith in my projections, and nudged my official estimate down to 80 wins.  In retrospect, bumping the Padres up 5 wins would have been a better idea.

Over the next week, I am going to revisit my individual player projections, and examine how Padres players performed relative to expectations.  I will start with the infield, the first set of players I projected back in March.

Catcher-Nick Hundley

Projection:

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

330

10

0.235

0.300

0.392

0.305

N/A

1.8

Actual:

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

307

8

0.249

0.308

0.418

0.308

N/A

1.5

This one I nailed.  There was not a single predicted category that Hundley outperformed or underperformed.

First Base-Adrian Gonzalez

Projection

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

665

34

0.278

0.374

0.520

0.383

3.0

4.2

Actual

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

693

31

0.298

0.393

0.511

0.378

1.1

5.3

Again, not bad on the projection.  Adrian’s actual OBP was slightly higher that predicted, and his slugging slightly lower.  His actual wOBA (0.378) was not significantly different from my 0.383 prediction.  My only real mistake was in translating the wOBA and UZR into WAR, where I clearly made a slight miscalculation, shorting Gonzalez prior to the season.

Second Base-David Eckstein

Projection

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

475

3

0.265

0.329

0.341

0.300

-2.5

0.5

Actual

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

492

1

0.267

0.321

0.326

0.296

6.2

2.0
Offensively, my projection was dead-on.  Defensively, I missed by a bit, but 116 games worth of defensive data is subject to large variance, and helps explain much of the difference in my projected WAR and Eckstein’s actual WAR.

Shortstop-Everth Cabrera

Projected

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

517

4

0.260

0.343

0.369

0.323

-5.7

1.5
Actual

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

241

1

0.208

0.279

0.278

0.248

0.1

-0.1
Cabrera is my first real miss.  He was a huge disappointment, but as I said back in March:
My projection for Cabrera is one with a lot of variance built in.  He might record a solid 2.5 WAR season, or he might perform close to replacement level.  After 2010, we should have a better idea of how good Cabrera really is.
Unfortunately, Cabrera performed “close to replacement level.”  He has the talent to turn things around in 2011, but I do not think the Padres can count on him to be the everyday shortstop going forward.
Third Base-Chase Headley
Projection

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

585

14

0.270

0.350

0.421

0.340

-1.0

2.6
Actual

PA

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

UZR

WAR

674

11

0.264

0.327

0.375

0.314

16.5

4.6
Headley greatly underperformed his offensive projection, but accumulated more playing time than predicted and provided shockingly outstanding defense.  The result was a 4.6 WAR season that well exceeded my 2.6 WAR projection.  Going forward, I believe Headley’s defense will regress, but his offensive performance should improve.  There is no reason Headley cannot settle in as a 3-5 WAR third baseman.
Overall, my projections regarding the infield were extremely accurate on the offensive side, while a bit pessimistic on the defensive side.
Next up: Outfield

About Daniel Gettinger:

All Posts by

4 Responses to “Revisiting Pre-Season Projections: Infield”

  1. Ray October 30, 2010 at 8:59 am #

    Seems like we have a worse idea of who Cabrera is now.

  2. Larry Faria October 30, 2010 at 11:04 pm #

    Everth was on the DL twice, and Bud seemed to lose faith in him and turned to Jerry Hairston without giving Everth an extended chance to get settled afterward. That was my big disappointment on the season: disappointment with Bud for not playing Cabrera (and Cunningham) more.

    I can’t downgrade Everth based on last year due to the injuries and lack of playing time. With his arm, Everth could have spelled Headley at third for a dozen games or so and kept Chase fresh. They both would have benefitted, but Bud didn’t see it that way.

  3. Tom Waits October 31, 2010 at 2:08 pm #

    You can’t fault Black for managing like he had a first-place club fighting for a playoff spot. Cabrera got about a half-season’s worth of playing time and looked absolutely awful just about every day of it. He kicked balls defensively and seemed clueless at the plate. With as little margin for error as the team had, Black couldn’t afford to give Everth a couple of weeks to settle it.

    Jerry Hairston probably would have played more short if he hadn’t been hurt late in the season, which would have given Tejada some starts at 3b. Chase couldn’t hit at all in September, but he was still playing good defense, and Black had seen nothing from Cabrera to suggest he could offer anything positive.

    I have no idea why Cunningham wasn’t starting more or why Scott Hairston wasn’t DL’d in August

Trackbacks/Pingbacks:

  1. Tuesday Links (2 Nov 10) – Ducksnorts - November 2, 2010

    [...] Revisiting Pre-Season Projections: Infield (Friar Forecast). Daniel reviews his picks. He also checks in on the outfield. [...]