I have been thrilled with the moves the San Diego Padres have made this off-season. Trading Adrian Gonzalez was essential to the future success of the franchise, and helped re-stock the farm system. The acquisitions of Jason Bartlett and Orlando Hudson vastly improved the middle-infield situation. Cameron Maybin, Brad Hawpe, and Jorge Cantu were all acquired on the cheap, and have some upside with minimal risk. With the exception of losing Gonzalez, the team has certainly improved.
That said, I am concerned about the starting rotation.
Mat Latos should be solid, but nobody should expect a repeat of last season. Its not that Latos will fall victim to some mythical sophomore slump, but rather, regression to the mean must be built into his projection for next season.
Clayton Richard was quite valuable last season, and given his contract, should continue to be so in 2011. However, I worry that his 2010 xFIP of 4.19 is more indicative of what we should expect out of him than his 2010 ERA (3.75).
Tim Stauffer is an obvious regression candidate. He came out of nowhere to post a 1.85 ERA in 82 innings. However, Stauffer’s success was greatly aided by good luck. He had an unsustainable 0.33 HR/9 rate, and an equally ridiculous 0.263 BABIP. Stauffer does not have the raw stuff to consistently strike out a lot of batters, and thus must rely on limiting his walks, homeruns, and his defense. Pitchers like Stauffer can be somewhat successful, but hoping for an ERA much better than 4.00 from Stauffer in 2011 is probably quite optimistic.
I do like Aaron Harang. The Padres were able to acquire him cheaply, and he should benefit from moving from Cincinnati into Petco Park, as he does surrender a large percentage of fly-balls. That said, last season, his K/9 rate dropped to 6.61–his lowest mark since 2003, and his BB/9 rate increased to 3.06–his highest mark since 2002. I am hopeful that his numbers will regress towards his career averages (7.47 K/9, and 2.52 BB/9), but he is starting to age, and did struggle with injuries last season. It is possible that 2010 was a sign of things to come, and not a one-year abberation.
As for guys like Cory Luebke and Wade LeBlanc–I am not expecting very much. Luebke has very limited major league experience, and LeBlanc has not had much success in the majors. After LeBlanc and Luebke, I just don’t see many starting pitching options. The Padres will need at least 7 starting pitchers over the course of the season, as injuries or ineffectiveness to some of the projected starters are likely.
In all, while I don’t mind the pitchers the Padres currently have penciled into the rotation, I do wonder whether they are good enough to help the Padres contend for a playoff birth. They strike me as a bunch of league average/slightly below league average starting pitchers with a good amount of uncertainty surrounding their 2011 projections.
Of course, I said the same thing about the 2010 rotation, and they ended up in the top half of the league in FIP. Combined with a very good bullpen, that is all a team really needs to have high quality pitching.
The rotation only needs to get though the line up twice- go six and give it up to that bullpen, the bullpen is set with closets in Bell,Qualls, Adama, Gergerson and Freri. This group can work any inning 7 to 9 .
The rotation will certainly be the hardest thing to predict in 2011. But just as there are reasons for concern, there are also reasons for optimism.
Mat Latos is extremely young, and every data point indicates he is an elite talent. He could easily succumb to some sort of slump or injury, but he could just as easily be even better than he was in 2010.
Clayton Richard, while not as young as Latos, is still only 27 and just entering his peak. Just like Mat he could experience a slump or injury or whatever, but he could also continue to improve as he has since coming over from Chicago. For whatever it’s worth, Darren Balsley has been pretty vocal about his belief that Clayton will keep getting better.
I don’t think anyone expects Tim Stauffer to post a 1.85 ERA again, but as long as he avoids bouts of appendicitis and keeps his FIP in the mid-to-high 3.00s, certainly something within his talent, he should be a fine option.
Aaron Harang is obviously an issue primarily because of injuries. If he’s really healthy and can stay that way, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was closer to the 2005-07 version than the 2008-10 version.
The fifth starters probably won’t be any better than anyone’s fifth starters. LeBlanc and Moseley are replacement level, and Luebke could go either way considering he’s a rookie.
I agree that we’re not going to be nearly as lucky injury-wise as we were in 2010, but I think the options we have this time around are top-to-bottom more talented than the ones in 2010.
Nice article Daniel and good comments Zach.
Nice article Daniel and good comments Zach.
I share your concern about the Padres rotation, particularly the back end. I have to question your mention of regression to the mean for Mat Latos. It seems a little early to look for regression in a kid who just completed his first full year in the majors and turned 23 less than two months ago. I’d like to see his peak first, along with a good sized chunk of his prime. You can’t estimate his mean without them.
I also think xfip, while a good tool for evaluating the abilities/potential of individual pitchers, tends to cause a team’s pitching to be underrated when applied to the staff as a whole. Defense is a major component of the Padres’ team strategy, and excluding it from team pitching, another major component, causes fifth place predictions for the team, and astonishment when the team does much better, followed by “fluke” allegations.
I’ve grown used to having a higher opinion of LeBlanc and Luebke as lefty starters than most observers. The dominant view of lefties seems to be they’re all loogies unless they have a sizzling fastball and/or amazing stuff. I see having one or two lefties in the rotation, even average ones, as a strategic advantage for the team over the coure of the season, giving the manager some flexibility in setting matchups against certain teams and power hitters.
Aside from my personal pecadillos, though, you made a great point about the rotation. Now we’re left to speculate how Jed will address it, whether he’ll go to triple-A call-ups, or if he has some in-season trades up his sleeve.
@Larry
My concern with Latos is less regression and more health. He jumped way past the conservative innings increase planned for him before the season. It was a justifiable risk, and he may not get Verducci’d, but that’s the biggest 2011 risk in my eyes.
It’s not so much that xFIP underrates pitching staffs as that analysts overvalue xFIP and undervalue defense. Like you say, defense and pitching are components of a system, not wholly separate. So while xFIP is helpful in determining that our starting pitching wasn’t really all that great last year, we need to look at defense before projecting how well they’ll do this year.
Aren’t the advantages of a lefty reflected in their overall performance? Managers don’t skip pitchers during the season to get a favorable matchup, at least not unless they’re desperate in September. In the playoffs it could matter more, but otherwise, LeBlanc/Luebke/Richard take their turn every 5th game. Lefties seem to be able to produce well with lesser peripheral numbers than RHP, probably because they’re harder on the most dangerous hitters in most lineups, but at the end of the season you can look at their ERA+, xFIP, WAR, Win Shares, or whatever your favorite measurement is and compare them to other arms. No member of our LHP trio is so old that they can’t get better, but they’re not so young that getting a lot better is all that probable. Even if they’re “just” 3 roughly league-average SP, that’s valuable as long as their salaries are cheap.