Recent reports are stating that the San Diego Padres will renew contract negotiations with Cameron Maybin in January (h/t: Chicken Friars). This is good news.
As we’ve discussed lately, the Padres have generally avoided locking up their young players to team-friendly, long-term contracts. Obviously signing a young player to a long-term deal involves some risk from the organization’s side, but the reward is having a productive player under contract for far below market value.
In his first season in San Diego, 24-year-old Cameron Maybin hit .264/.323/.393 in 569 plate appearances, patrolling center field in Petco Park. Maybin’s game offers speed (40 for 48 on stolen bases), defense (+9.5 UZR, +12 DRS), and a promising bat (it was above-average in 2011) in an exciting combination.
Depending on your source, Maybin was worth anywhere from 2.9 WAR to 4.7 WAR in 2011, with the difference due to both offensive and defensive value. Either way, Maybin was very good in 2011, and he’s just entering into his prime.
Maybin isn’t arbitration-eligible until 2013 and he’s under Padres control through 2015. From the Padres perspective, it would make a lot of sense to get Maybin locked up for more than four years to avoid the arbitration process all together and also (perhaps more importantly) buy out some free agent years.
The recent deal that Tampa Bay and Matt Moore agreed to was five years, $14 million (with options that could extend the contract to eight years, $40 million). Maybin is more established at the major league level, a position player, and further along in service-time – he’s going to want more than $14 million to sign on long-term.
Let’s take a look at Maybin’s expected market value over the next six years:
| Year | Proj. WAR | Est. Salary (M) | Market value (M) |
| 2012 | 2.5 | $.5 | $12.5 |
| 2013 | 2.8 | $5 | $14.8 |
| 2014 | 3.1 | $8 | $17.4 |
| 2015 | 3.1 | $12 | $18.3 |
| 2016 | 2.8 | $17.4 | $17.4 |
| 2017 | 2.5 | $16.3 | $16.3 |
As usual, there are a lot of assumptions and estimations being made here. Consider these numbers more for illustration than any serious evaluation.
If the Padres play it year-by-year with Maybin and he performs well, they’ll net over $35 million in surplus value through 2015. In 2016, he’ll become a free agent and likely won’t be returning to San Diego. In extending Maybin, the goal should be to grab a couple of those free agent years to keep the center fielder in San Diego a few years longer.
There is incentive to play it year-by-year for the Padres – they’ll still get a ton of value out of Maybin if he produces, and if he doesn’t there isn’t a long-term commitment. Still, if they want to avoid the the arbitration process and keep Maybin around for more than four years, they should try to lock him up now.
The Friar Forecast recommendation: six years, $40 million (2018 club option $14 million).
Maybin gets $40 million guaranteed, a decent little sum of money. The Padres lock up their (hopefully) stud center fielder at a very reasonable cost, buying out two of his free agent seasons (potentially three, if they pick up the option).
The only way for the Padres to keep someone like Maybin around after 2015 is by taking a calculated risk and locking him up early in his career. We’ll see if they decide to do it.
I was just discussing Maybin last night. Nice article. Accordingly to the WAR numbers, he’s worth it of he can maintain his productivity. Any suggestions on who we should target to bring him home once he’s on base? I’m nostalgic and appreciate Mark Kotsay, but he’s not a long term solution.
Thanks for the comment, Leah. Maybin will definitely be worth it if he can keep up — or improve — his performance.
Kotsay certainly isn’t the answer. For now, I don’t think the Padres will look to add any type of middle-of-the-oder offensive force. When the team is more set to compete in a year or two, they may make a move for a bat, but I’m not sure who they’d target at this point.
In 2012 Maybin is not eligible for arbitration yet and generally players earn 20-40%, 60% and then 80 % of market value in their 1st, 2nd, 3rd years of arbitration eligibility. That is why its a good value to sign for less to long term deal which gives player guaranteed money and team a discount.
I think Tabata’s 6 yr/$14.25 million deal with 3 option years that could bring total value to $37.25 million w/the Pirates is a good guideline to what kind of offer Maybin will be looking at.
Sorry. 14.75 million
I have him down for $.5 million in 2012, not $5 million. I often use the 40-60-80 rule, but I adjusted it down slightly with Maybin because his raw offensive stats will be hurt by Petco and a lot of his value is “hidden” in defense and base running.
I can’t see him signing for anything like six years, $15 million (plus the options). He would be giving up three arb years and two free agent years. He’s already had one nice year in the bigs and he’s always been a top prospects. Have to think he’s going to want more than that to sign on for the long haul.
I am thinking 4 yrs at around $20 million with an option year or two. I don’t see the Padres doing a 6 year deal + options, unless they get him at a steal such as 6 years $30m. The Padres might be wise to extend Headley and take their time with Gyorko. The right deal would still leave trade value for the Padres in the event Gyorko’s performance becomes a “no doubt” instant upgrade to 3B or LF at that time.
The purpose of signing a young player to long term contract is to get a DEEP discount for the team and a guaranteed contract for the player.
The Padres will want to pay less than 1/2 of what Maybin potentially will earn in arbitration if he stays healthy AND continues to progress as a player. Neither are givens.
That is why Maybin will likely (and Tabata did in Pittsburgh) take substantially less than what he might be worth in arbitration.
Brian Goldberg is very friendly with Padres brass and a contract structured similarly to Tabata’s or for slightly more money because of the additional year of ML service time ($20 million over 6 seasons?) is a pretty good guess as to the eventual direction of negotiations.
Remember, Tabata originally signed for one of largest Intl Free Agent bonuses ever. He was a top prospect too.
Tabata was ranked as the 27th best prospect in 2007 by BA. he dropped to 75th by 2009. Maybin was ranked 6th in ’07 and 8th in ’09.
Maybin has a much better minor league track record (nearly 100 points higher in OPS). More power, more patience.
In MLB, so far, their bats have been pretty equal. But Maybin plays center field (Tabata primarily left), he’s a better defender, and a better base runner.
They are comparable, I guess, but Maybin is simply better. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t get more money.