Justin over at Chicken Friars sort of beat me to the punch on this article, with his recent piece on infielder Vince Belnome. It’s a good read and covers the basics of who Belnome is as a player and potential prospect. I won’t regurgitate too much of his analysis here (hence, the link); however, I will explore some of his performance in a bit more detail and go so far as to say that I think Belnome will be on San Diego’s roster at some point early during the 2012 season.
Belnome is a player who hasn’t received much hype until recently. He doesn’t often appear on prospect lists, and if he does, he’s likely to be listed in the higher numbers. But fans and scouts alike are starting to take notice of the 5′ 11″ 205 pounder, and it’s likely because he’s proven he can handle himself with the lumber.
Belnome was drafted in the 28th round of the 2009 draft out of West Virginia. There’s a certain other Padres prospect who came from that same team a year later by the name of Jedd Gyorko. That’s probably a name you recognize at the top of most prospect lists, and for good reason. Gyorko was a second rounder and just completed an Arizona Fall League season where he nearly set the record for batting average.
Obviously, late-round picks are rarely given much fanfare, but ask Mike Piazza (62 round) what he thinks about draft order. (I know…he’s the exception.) Belnome is quickly becoming another example of proof that major league quality players can be found throughout all levels of the draft.
The reasons are simple: he knows what he’s doing in the box, and he’s not going to give away too many runs with his glove. Now, most teams look for elite defense up the middle. With Belnome manning second base, his defense can’t exactly be considered elite, so his prospect status takes a hit. But, let’s look at the numbers on both sides of the field and give him his due.
In three minor league seasons, Belnome has straight produced. He’s clubbed 43 HRs and knocked in an impressive 200 RBIs in 285 games. In 1,256 PAs, he’s walked 205 times and struck out 255 times. On defense, his fielding percentages break down as such (range factors per game in parenthesis):
442 CH @ 3B: .914 (2.64)
416 CH @ 2B: .976 (4.61)
177 CH @ 1B: .989 (8.75)
Now, 5’11″ and 200 lbs+ sounds like a nice frame for a slugging 3B, but you can see that his glove work at the hot corner is not terribly strong. As a first baseman, though, Belnome’s defense gets better. However, his height doesn’t fit the position. At second, Belnome seems to have found somewhat of a home. The FLD% is good, and the range factor is solid as well. The struggle here, though, is with the body as well. Big-bodied second baseman don’t fit the mode unless their name is Dan Uggla (5’11″, 205 lbs). The position requires nimble footwork and quick bursts and turns of activity. Now, if you can slug like Uggla, people forget about the defense. Uggla’s second base range factor in the minors was 4.41, by the way, very similar to Belnome. So, essentially, at second, Belnome won’t give up many runs, but he also won’t save many, either. The question will be, can he slug like Uggla?
Let’s look a bit closer in that department.
Belnome’s 2009 season was an impressive introduction to pro ball. Between Eugene (A-) and Ft. Wayne (A), he compiled a gaudy slash of: .321/.444/.519 (.963 OPS). Additionally, only 32 of his 268 at bats that season were in Ft. Wayne. The organization thought highly enough of his bat that he basically skipped A ball, and was moved up to hi-A Lake Elsinore in 2010. In the hitter-friendly California League, Belnome put forth: .273/.397/.436. He knocked in a career high 84 RBIs that season to go along with 16 HRs, also a career high.
The following season saw him move up to Double-A San Antonio, notoriously pitcher-friendly. Not if you ask Belnome. In 267 at bats, he produced: .333/.432/.603. Just video game-like. He set a career best in HR with 17 in half the games of his previous season. He managed just 75 games last season due to injury, but many in San Antonio felt he was the team’s MVP, and the numbers bear that out.
Overall, Belnome’s career slash in three seasons looks like this: .301/.418/.500 (.918 OPS). In case you’re wondering, Uggla’s career minor league slash line in five seasons was: .276/.347/.442 (.789). Am I suggesting Belnome is the next Uggla? Maybe. Maybe he could be even better. Why? He’s got a considerably better eye. In low-A, Belnome’s BB% was 17.6. In hi-A, he maintained 16.8%, and in limited time in Double-A, it was 14.8%. Uggla’s overall major league BB% is 10.5%. [Granted, that's a minor league versus major league comparison. Somebody help me find data on FanGraphs that comes before 2006!]. The power is there, too. His ISO for those same seasons: .203, .163, and .270.
Now, he does hit left-handed, and he will be playing his games in Petco National Park, but I think you’ll see Belnome manning second base sooner than any other minor league infielder gets the call up. Once he establishes that he’s healthy, and once he starts demolishing PCL parks and pitchers, I think you’ll see the big league club take notice. He’ll look even better once Orlando Hudson scuffles again, preferring to spend his down time discussing the finer points of lawn mowing on Twitter.
Keep your eye on Belnome, and see if he doesn’t open some other eyes in San Diego this coming season.
Great stuff, Chris.
Hat tip to reader Andrew who initially brought up Belnome to me. Chris already had him on his radar. A number of other readers have inquired about Belnome, who is obviously an intriguing prospect going into this year.
For what it’s worth, Clay Davenport’s translations are quite high on Belnome, projecting him as a .260/.350/.415 major league hitter.
http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/BELNOME19880311A.shtml
Belnome is the perfect example of a player that just needs a shot. The only reason he is not on prospect radars is because of age. I think prospects that are overlooked because they are 24 and not 19 could be the next “edge” that so many teams that embrace moneyball concepts hope to gain. I have doubts as to whether or not the Padres will promote Belnome early in 2012, mostly due to Forsythe being ready now and better defensively. However, I could see Belnome getting a Sept call up and competing in 2013 for a full time job. Should the Padres get overwhelmed by an offer for Headley, I could see them putting Forsythe at 3B and giving Belnome a shot at 2B if Hudson gets moved.
@Myron: thanks for the comment. That’s an interesting slash prediction. I’m thinking it’s close, though I’d go with even slightly higher in all categories. Maybe: .275/.370/.430
@Scott: thanks for the bringing up the age factor…totally didn’t include that. I think your assessment is interesting. Honestly, I could get behind a Forsythe and Belnome infield to finish out this season. I can’t imagine Headley survives the trade deadline this season.
Interesting article… The one caveat is that overarching lesson from Moneyball is to find value (and maybe Belnome is part of the answer) but to find it where others are not looking. The Padres know they can’t spend to retain or buy top bats so they want to convert as many batted balls into outs as possible. Belnome’s defensive mediocrity doesn’t fit into their thinking.
@Peter
The Padres just traded two pretty good prospects to acquire Quentin. They’ll pay him several million dollars from a limited budget. They just traded the superior defensive first base prospect. They don’t seem to be motivated by a particularly strong desire to convert batted balls into outs. They’re not ignoring defense, but there’s no reason to believe they wouldn’t give Belnome a shot at second base if their scouts think he can be adequate there.
The “where others aren’t looking” part of a value-based approach is mostly geared to resources that are open to competition. If other teams are paying top dollar for sluggers, smaller market teams can’t hope to match it dollar-for-dollar. That’s not the case with “internal” prospects. Nobody can offer Belnome more money than us for several years. Because Petco is so hard on hitters, it’s possible that one way to exploit an inefficiency is to hang onto good hitters through their arbitration years, since they’re not likely to win big arb awards with the home park sucking the life out of their stat lines.
Tom Waits – Excellent points. Take Headley, second time through arbitration and he’s earning 3.5m. What’s that figure look like if he’s playing in a much better home park, 1.5-2m more? Regardless of the exact figure, our bats are going to be downgraded in hard numbers and in salary. It sucks when it comes to looking at stat lines, but there is real value there from the Padres perspective. Couple that with being able to supplement the pitching staff with affordable arms, and it seems like there are plenty of places for a team in such a tough spot (as some view Petco).
That said, I’m not ready to concede the Padres willingness to go skimpy on defense anywhere up the middle. If exceptions were to be made I’d expect to see them at corner spots, notably 1b & lf.
Belnome is a guy that I don’t think has much chance of any in getting the opportunity he’d warrant in San Diego, in part do to what is likely a small window. But hey, Byrnes was the GM when Uggla was taken in the Rule-5 draft from the Dbacks, so he might not want to tempt fate. He and Forsythe would make an interesting 2b combo in 2013. I’d like that, but it never seems to work out that way. Some vet will be brought in making that scenario a no-go.