Ubaldo Jimenez made headlines again yesterday, as he now heads into the All-Star break with an astonishing 15-1 record. What was not publicized, however, is that the Colorado Rockies, for the first time all season, moved Jimenez up a spot in their starting rotation. Nine times this season, the Rockies have had the opportunity to skip a spot in their rotation in order to let Jimenez start on normal rest, and only yesterday did they take advantage of that opportunity. And with good reason–an extra day of rest can never hurt.

This brings us to yesterday’s ballgame. Why did the Rockies uncharacteristically move Jimenez up a day, rather than give him the additional time off like they had done so many other times this season? The answer–and admittedly, this is pure speculation on my part–is that Jim Tracy and company wanted to give Ubaldo four days of rest in anticipation of Tuesday’s All-Star Game. Though the NL’s starting pitcher has yet to be announced, it is a foregone conclusion that Jimenez will take the mound during the bottom of the first on Tuesday.

So what’s the big deal? Jimenez started on normal rest (but a day earlier than usual), dominated the Cardinals, and led his team to yet another victory. In the process, he is now on track to start the All-Star Game with the normal four days between outings. So what’s the problem? Well, when looking at this from the perspective of a San Diego Padres fan, I can’t help but smile. I for one was dreading yet another Ubaldo Jimenez - Kevin Correia showdown. The previous two this season, as we know, did not end favorably. Now, the end result is that San Diego gets to dodge Ublado entirely.

Thus, what we have here, in my estimation, is an occurrence where the Rockies’ Manager let an impending exhibition game affect his on-field decision-making. Was it a harmless decision? Only time will tell. The Rockies, after all, were victorious yesterday. Nevertheless, with Colorado sitting only three games out of first place, you would think that they would make a concerted effort to let their staff ace square off against the division leaders in a three game series. Especially when giving Ubaldo additional days of rest has been the norm throughout the season.

*One side-note: I realize that Jorge De La Rosa is coming off the DL today–something that undoubtedly influenced Tracy’s decision to move Jimenez up a spot for the first time all season. However, De La Rosa’s final rehab appearance was on Saturday, July 3rd. He will be starting tonight with an extra day of rest. That, of course, is not a bad thing, especially for someone who has spent several months on the DL. Nevertheless, I strongly suspect that the All-Star Game played a role in the Rockies’ rotation alignment this week. And as a Padres fan, I’m glad.

I had the San Diego Padres ranked eighth again this week.  I think that is as high as I am willing to go with this team.  Its not that the team is bad–it isn’t–its just that it does not have the same amount of talent that a number of other teams do.

Here’s how I had the N.L. West ranked this week, along with my comments (Yardbarker rank in parentheses)…

7. Colorado Rockies (14): Perhaps the Rockies won’t miss Jorge De La Rosa so much after all. His replacement, Jhoulys Chacin, has now thrown 15 innings of shutout ball.

8. San Diego Padres (7): Tim Stauffer has only allowed one run in 23 innings. He’s the team’s 7th starter.

9. San Francisco Giants (6): Mark DeRosa (0.279 OBP, 0.258 SLG) is having a nightmare of a season.

16. Los Angeles Dodgers (19): The concept of having a knuckle-baller in the rotation is neat, but Charlie Haeger (20 BB in 23 IP) needs to go.

22. Arizona Diamondbacks (23): Ian Kennedy is having a lot more success in the NL West than he did in the AL East.

Other notes…

• I like the Rockies a lot more than the other voters.  I truly believe they are the most talented and well balanced team in the division.
• The Atlanta Braves are too talented to continue losing games at this rate.  I had them ranked 15th this week, but 5th in my pre-season ranking.  Eventually they will string together some wins.
• In week 3, I had the Seattle Mariners ranked 10th.  This week, I have them at 25.  That team is an absolute wreck right now.
• I am still not buying into the Washington Nationals.  Their pitching is terrible, and outside of Ryan Zimmerman, their position players are pretty junky as well.  Despite a winning record, I have the Nationals ranked 27th, well below the Yardbarker rank of 16.
• One team that has not moved much in my rankings has been the Diamondbacks, a team that is certainly below average, but not laughably terrible.  Over the course of the rankings I have had them: 19, 19, 22, 21, 22, 22.
• But the Diamondback’s consistency in my rankings cannot even compare to that of the New York Yankees.  I have ranked the Yankees first every week, and am likely to continue ranking them first for the foreseeable future.

The week 2 power rankings are up at Yardbarker.  This was how I rated the NL West teams (Yardbarker rank in parentheses), along with my comments:

7. Colorado Rockies (9)-Jimenez’s no-hitter should help him get the recognition he deserves. He is a fantastic young pitcher.

9. Los Angeles Dodgers (14)-Aside from Kuroda, the starting pitching has struggled mightily. Billingsley and Kershaw are too talented for those struggles to continue much longer.

10. San Francisco Giants (6)-The pitching has been phenomenal, but the Giants are amongst the league leaders in runs scored as well.

21. San Diego Padres (24)-Chase Headley is showing why he was once the Padres’ top prospect. Kevin Correia is doing a good job proving his solid 2009 was no fluke.

22. Arizona Diamondbacks (16)-After a number of disappointing seasons, Chris Young is off to a solid start.

Here are some additional notes on the rankings:

• I may have overcompensated for the Giants hot start.  I think I will have them ranked lower than 10 next week.  That their average rank was 6 is still shocking to me.
• The Boston Red Sox fell to 13 in the Yardbarker rankings.  I had the Red Sox rated fourth this week.  As Joe Sheehan mentioned on Twitter: “1) A 4-9 stretch isn’t unusual for even a good team. 2) The Red Sox have played an above-average schedule to start the season.”  To the voters who ranked the Red Sox so low, I ask them whether they truly believe teams like the Giants, A’s, Marlins, Tigers, and Blue Jays are likely to defeat the Red Sox in a 7 game series if it started today.
• The New York Mets are not the third worst team in the majors.  I had them ranked 17th, and feel anything between 15 and 20 is fair.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates are not the 15th best team in the majors.  Their negative 22 run differential (yes, I realize its early to be talking about run differential) is more telling than their 7-5 record.

by Daniel Gettinger

The San Diego Padres begin a four game series with the Braves today.  In anticipation of the series, I answered a few questions for Scott Humphries of the Atlanta Braves blog Tomahawk Talk.  Some of the questions dealt with the Padres, and some were more Braves focused.  You can read the entire interview on Tomahawk Talk, but here is a quick excerpt:

Tomahawk Talk: The Padres are currently scheduled to face three of the Braves’ best starting pitchers (Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, and Tim Hudson) in this week’s series. What are your thoughts on those guys?

Daniel Gettinger: Tommy Hanson is fantastic. He dominated at every level in the minors, had a great rookie season, and projects to be just as good this season. And I like Tim Hudson as well. His problem has never been effectiveness, it’s been staying healthy. I’m not quite as bullish on Jurrjens, but at the very least, he is an above average starting pitcher. Given his major league service time, a player like Jurrjens is extremely valuable to a team.

Tomahawk Talk: What are your initial thoughts/impressions of this year’s Braves team?

Daniel Gettinger: The Braves should be very good in 2010. The starting pitching is fantastic, and the bats are pretty solid as well. The key for the Braves will be staying healthy. Chipper Jones, Troy Glaus, Tim Hudson, and Billy Wagner have all struggled to stay off the DL in recent years and are being heavily relied upon by the Braves.

by Daniel Gettinger

Perhaps that statement would have been better communicated through our Twitter page.

by Myron Logan

From a baseball perspective, I think $6 million is a slight overpay, at the least.
–Me, on Trevor Hoffman’s departure

Even by FanGraphs’ reliever valuations, which may be a bit conservative, Hoffman was worth almost $7 million last year. He had a tremendous comeback season with Milwaukee, posting a 1.83 ERA in 54 innings. In 2008, his final year with the Padres, he notched a 3.77 ERA in 45 innings. That season marked his lowest ERA since 1995 and the second lowest innings pitched total of his career.

With the Padres in rebuilding-mode and Hoffman limping into his age-41 season, it was time to part ways. Looking back, though, it may have been a bad move, considering Hoffman’s iconic status in San Diego, and obviously his production last year. What changed from 2008 to ‘09? Well, the first thing to remember is that relievers are especially hard to predict, because they are on the field so little, relative to position players and starters. A string of bad luck or poor performance (or, conversely, good luck or good performance) can mask a reliever’s true talent. Let’s take a look at some numbers:

Everything is very close, except home runs per nine innings. You could argue, though, that HR/9 is one of the most important predicators of a pitcher’s success. And a decrease in home run rate, from a well below average 1.6 to a miniscule .3, is going to have a tremendous impact on ones ERA.

What we’re talking about here, however, is only a few batted balls. In 2008, Hoffman gave up 58 fly balls, and eight of them traveled over the fence (13.7% HR/FB). In 2009, those numbers sat at 65 and two, respectively (3.1%). The league average for home runs per fly ball is right around 10%, however, Hoffman’s average from 2002-2009 is just 6% (2008 was his only year in that stretch over 10%). That may not seem that significant, but over that same period, had Hoffman’s HR/FB rate been at the league average, he would have allowed about 20 more home runs, or 2.5 per season – a not so insignificant number for a closer.

What this exemplifies, mainly, is the difficulty in projecting relievers. Had maybe four or five of Hoffman’s 2008 home runs landed on the playing field or in someone’s glove, his ERA could have easily been a point (or more) lower. It also shows that Trevor Hoffman, even at 41 years old, is still a great closer. He recently resigned with the Brewers for $8 million. While that may be a slight overpay, please, don’t quote me one it.

by Daniel Gettinger

In case you guys missed it, Cardinals 3B David Freese was arrested last weekend for driving drunk.

Today, ESPN is reporting that his blood-alcohol level at the time was a whopping 0.23.  That’s not just drunk, that’s “I’m almost certainly going to puke” drunk.

Oh yeah, Freese is the guy the team traded in order to acquire Jim Edmonds prior to the 2008 season.

by Daniel Gettinger

• Following today’s victory over the Pirates, Wade LeBlanc is 2-1 with a 3.93 ERA in 34.1 innings. Unfortunately he has also walked 17 batters, while striking out only 19.  LeBlanc’s average fastball speed is under 85 miles per hour.  It is rare that a pitcher finds success in the big leagues with such a slow fastball, but it is nearly impossible to do so while also walking a batter every other inning.  In the minors, LeBlanc has never had a control problem, but because his stuff is so mediocre, he might feel like he has to nibble at the major league level.
• The Cubs have suspended Milton Bradley for the rest of the season.  I feel sorry for the guy.  He played inspired ball for the Padres in 2007, posting a 1.004 OPS during his stint in San Diego.  Since then, I have rooted for him to succeed, and last year he did just that with Texas.  Unfortunately, Bradley has a long history of injuries and blow-ups, the latter of which has effectively ended his time in Chicago.  I agree with Jack Moore who writes: “Some team with a need in the outfield or at DH should take a look at Bradley - it won’t be costly and the benefits could be enormous.”
• The Astros fired manager Cecil Cooper with 14 games left to play in the season.  According to ESPN, G.M. Ed Wade said “the changes could not wait until the end of the season.”  I do not see why that is the case.  The Astros, who were 70-79 when Cooper was fired, are not that talented of a team.  As I wrote back in July, the Astros lacked the line-up depth and starting pitching necessary to seriously contend this season.  That they were 70-79 in mid-September is not surprising.  The results do not suggest Cooper did a terrible job.  Firing him with 14 games to go is not going to help the Astros this season, and does not benefit the team in the future either.  Wade seems to have been looking for a scape-goat, and Cooper was the one slaughtered.  Classless.

by Daniel Gettinger

Yes, this is a blog primarily about the San Diego Padres.  Recently though, a friend of mine from Houston asked me to “write a blog post about the surging Astros.”  To be perfectly honest, I had not even noticed the Astros had been winning ball games, but I’ll oblige and touch on the Astros.  Unfortunately for my friend, I don’t have anything promising to report.

As of this moment, the Astros are 50-48.  Only two games behind both the Cubs and Cardinals.  They trail the wildcard leading Rockies by 3.5 games.  Compared to  preseason expectations (PECOTA had the Astros pegged for 66.6 wins), this has been a surprisingly good season for Astros fans.  They have certainly had more fun than Padres fans have had.  That said, the Astros are not a legitimate 50 win team.  They have been outscored by 28 runs, and have an expected win/loss record of 46-52.

The Astros biggest problem is they have very little talent on the roster.  Berkman and Pence are good. Carlos Lee can hit.  And Tejada had had a surprisingly solid season.  But other than those players, the Astros have very little in the way of position players.

Geoff Blum, Kaz Matsui, and Jeff Keppinger have all received more than 200 plate appearances.  The team’s bench is nearly non-existent.  The Astros have little lineup depth, and quite frankly, one of their “stars” is incredibly overrated.  Carlos Lee has essentially given back all the runs he has generated with his bat by playing terrible (-7.8 runs below average) defense at a corner outfield spot.

The starting pitching is not fantastic either.  Roy Oswalt leads the staff, and is still a good pitcher. Just not great.  He has a 3.80 FIP, exactly the same mark he posted in 2008.  Wandy Rodriguez has been a nice surprise, posting a 2.72 ERA.  But his peripherals, while good, are not 2.72 ERA good.  Lets play the player A/player B game…

Player A: 8.38 K/9, 3.01 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, 3.61 FIP

Player B: 8.97 K/9, 4.66 BB/9, 0.63 HR/9, 3.67 FIP

Player A has better control than player B, but strikes out less batters (albeit barely), and gives up more homeruns.  Player A is Wandy Rodriguez.  Player B is Chad Gaudin.  Yup, Wandy Rodriguez is essentially Chad Gaudin.  Wandy has gotten lucky this year.  Chad has been somewhat unlukcy.

Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, and Russ Ortiz round out the rotation.  Um, yeah.  Can’t say I have a lot of faith in any of those guys.  At best Hampton is a league average pitcher.  Moehler and Ortiz are not even that.  The Astro’s starting pitching mirrors the team’s bats.  The top 40% is solid.  The bottom 60% is pretty bad.

The bullpen has been good.  Jose Valverde has returned from an injury, and has done a capable job in the closer’s role. Letroy Hawkins and Chris Sampson are both enjoying good seasons as well.  Even lesser known players such as Tim Byrdak and Alberto Arias have done a nice job when called upon.

The bullpen may be the Astro’s strength, but a good bullpen is not going to make up for the rest of the team’s flaws.  The Astros lack depth in both their lineup and their starting rotation.  The Astros are overachieving, and will not make the playoffs this season.  As George Zimmer says: “I guarantee it”…