by Myron Logan

From a baseball perspective, I think $6 million is a slight overpay, at the least.
–Me, on Trevor Hoffman’s departure

Even by FanGraphs’ reliever valuations, which may be a bit conservative, Hoffman was worth almost $7 million last year. He had a tremendous comeback season with Milwaukee, posting a 1.83 ERA in 54 innings. In 2008, his final year with the Padres, he notched a 3.77 ERA in 45 innings. That season marked his lowest ERA since 1995 and the second lowest innings pitched total of his career.

With the Padres in rebuilding-mode and Hoffman limping into his age-41 season, it was time to part ways. Looking back, though, it may have been a bad move, considering Hoffman’s iconic status in San Diego, and obviously his production last year. What changed from 2008 to ‘09? Well, the first thing to remember is that relievers are especially hard to predict, because they are on the field so little, relative to position players and starters. A string of bad luck or poor performance (or, conversely, good luck or good performance) can mask a reliever’s true talent. Let’s take a look at some numbers:

Everything is very close, except home runs per nine innings. You could argue, though, that HR/9 is one of the most important predicators of a pitcher’s success. And a decrease in home run rate, from a well below average 1.6 to a miniscule .3, is going to have a tremendous impact on ones ERA.

What we’re talking about here, however, is only a few batted balls. In 2008, Hoffman gave up 58 fly balls, and eight of them traveled over the fence (13.7% HR/FB). In 2009, those numbers sat at 65 and two, respectively (3.1%). The league average for home runs per fly ball is right around 10%, however, Hoffman’s average from 2002-2009 is just 6% (2008 was his only year in that stretch over 10%). That may not seem that significant, but over that same period, had Hoffman’s HR/FB rate been at the league average, he would have allowed about 20 more home runs, or 2.5 per season – a not so insignificant number for a closer.

What this exemplifies, mainly, is the difficulty in projecting relievers. Had maybe four or five of Hoffman’s 2008 home runs landed on the playing field or in someone’s glove, his ERA could have easily been a point (or more) lower. It also shows that Trevor Hoffman, even at 41 years old, is still a great closer. He recently resigned with the Brewers for $8 million. While that may be a slight overpay, please, don’t quote me one it.

by Daniel Gettinger

In case you guys missed it, Cardinals 3B David Freese was arrested last weekend for driving drunk.

Today, ESPN is reporting that his blood-alcohol level at the time was a whopping 0.23.  That’s not just drunk, that’s “I’m almost certainly going to puke” drunk.

Oh yeah, Freese is the guy the team traded in order to acquire Jim Edmonds prior to the 2008 season.

by Daniel Gettinger

• Following today’s victory over the Pirates, Wade LeBlanc is 2-1 with a 3.93 ERA in 34.1 innings. Unfortunately he has also walked 17 batters, while striking out only 19.  LeBlanc’s average fastball speed is under 85 miles per hour.  It is rare that a pitcher finds success in the big leagues with such a slow fastball, but it is nearly impossible to do so while also walking a batter every other inning.  In the minors, LeBlanc has never had a control problem, but because his stuff is so mediocre, he might feel like he has to nibble at the major league level.
• The Cubs have suspended Milton Bradley for the rest of the season.  I feel sorry for the guy.  He played inspired ball for the Padres in 2007, posting a 1.004 OPS during his stint in San Diego.  Since then, I have rooted for him to succeed, and last year he did just that with Texas.  Unfortunately, Bradley has a long history of injuries and blow-ups, the latter of which has effectively ended his time in Chicago.  I agree with Jack Moore who writes: “Some team with a need in the outfield or at DH should take a look at Bradley - it won’t be costly and the benefits could be enormous.”
• The Astros fired manager Cecil Cooper with 14 games left to play in the season.  According to ESPN, G.M. Ed Wade said “the changes could not wait until the end of the season.”  I do not see why that is the case.  The Astros, who were 70-79 when Cooper was fired, are not that talented of a team.  As I wrote back in July, the Astros lacked the line-up depth and starting pitching necessary to seriously contend this season.  That they were 70-79 in mid-September is not surprising.  The results do not suggest Cooper did a terrible job.  Firing him with 14 games to go is not going to help the Astros this season, and does not benefit the team in the future either.  Wade seems to have been looking for a scape-goat, and Cooper was the one slaughtered.  Classless.

by Daniel Gettinger

Yes, this is a blog primarily about the San Diego Padres.  Recently though, a friend of mine from Houston asked me to “write a blog post about the surging Astros.”  To be perfectly honest, I had not even noticed the Astros had been winning ball games, but I’ll oblige and touch on the Astros.  Unfortunately for my friend, I don’t have anything promising to report.

As of this moment, the Astros are 50-48.  Only two games behind both the Cubs and Cardinals.  They trail the wildcard leading Rockies by 3.5 games.  Compared to  preseason expectations (PECOTA had the Astros pegged for 66.6 wins), this has been a surprisingly good season for Astros fans.  They have certainly had more fun than Padres fans have had.  That said, the Astros are not a legitimate 50 win team.  They have been outscored by 28 runs, and have an expected win/loss record of 46-52.

The Astros biggest problem is they have very little talent on the roster.  Berkman and Pence are good. Carlos Lee can hit.  And Tejada had had a surprisingly solid season.  But other than those players, the Astros have very little in the way of position players.

Geoff Blum, Kaz Matsui, and Jeff Keppinger have all received more than 200 plate appearances.  The team’s bench is nearly non-existent.  The Astros have little lineup depth, and quite frankly, one of their “stars” is incredibly overrated.  Carlos Lee has essentially given back all the runs he has generated with his bat by playing terrible (-7.8 runs below average) defense at a corner outfield spot.

The starting pitching is not fantastic either.  Roy Oswalt leads the staff, and is still a good pitcher. Just not great.  He has a 3.80 FIP, exactly the same mark he posted in 2008.  Wandy Rodriguez has been a nice surprise, posting a 2.72 ERA.  But his peripherals, while good, are not 2.72 ERA good.  Lets play the player A/player B game…

Player A: 8.38 K/9, 3.01 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, 3.61 FIP

Player B: 8.97 K/9, 4.66 BB/9, 0.63 HR/9, 3.67 FIP

Player A has better control than player B, but strikes out less batters (albeit barely), and gives up more homeruns.  Player A is Wandy Rodriguez.  Player B is Chad Gaudin.  Yup, Wandy Rodriguez is essentially Chad Gaudin.  Wandy has gotten lucky this year.  Chad has been somewhat unlukcy.

Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, and Russ Ortiz round out the rotation.  Um, yeah.  Can’t say I have a lot of faith in any of those guys.  At best Hampton is a league average pitcher.  Moehler and Ortiz are not even that.  The Astro’s starting pitching mirrors the team’s bats.  The top 40% is solid.  The bottom 60% is pretty bad.

The bullpen has been good.  Jose Valverde has returned from an injury, and has done a capable job in the closer’s role. Letroy Hawkins and Chris Sampson are both enjoying good seasons as well.  Even lesser known players such as Tim Byrdak and Alberto Arias have done a nice job when called upon.

The bullpen may be the Astro’s strength, but a good bullpen is not going to make up for the rest of the team’s flaws.  The Astros lack depth in both their lineup and their starting rotation.  The Astros are overachieving, and will not make the playoffs this season.  As George Zimmer says: “I guarantee it”…