by Daniel Gettinger

Sky Andrecheck weighed in on the Garland signing on SI.com.  He rated the signing as one of the best starting pitching gambles of this offseason:

3. Jon Garland, Padres

Age:30
Projected WAR:2.3 Wins
Contract:1 year, $5.3 million

While San Diego doesn’t look to be a contender in 2010, the Garland contract is a real steal. Garland posted a 4.01 ERA in 200 innings in 2009, a figure that was slightly better, but not totally out of line with the rest of his career numbers. The Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel projection systems put his likely 2010 ERA in the mid-to-low 4.00’s — a very respectable figure. Besides that, Garland is durable (at least 190 IP in each of the last 8 seasons), and he’s young (just 30 years old). All of that sounds like a guy who would be in the market for a big multi-year deal, especially considering the crop of starting pitchers wasn’t particularly strong this off-season. After all, he was pretty much the same pitcher in 2006 when he signed a three-year $29 million contract — a contract on which he largely paid dividends.

How then, did new Padres GM Jed Hoyer manage to sign Garland for a one-year $5.3 million contract? That’s probably what a host of other teams would like to know as well. Last year, Garland had the misfortune of going to an extremely deep Dodgers team that didn’t really have space for him, which probably affected his perceived value. Garland’s not a Cy Young candidate, but he would provide significant value as a middle of the rotation starter to most teams. On the Padres, he probably provides even more value, as they’re not exactly teeming with quality starting pitchers. Critics may point out that the Padres aren’t likely to go anywhere with or without Garland, so why make the move (some of these critics may or may not be the same ones criticizing the Padres for not spending any money)? The fact is that even if the Padres aren’t going to the World Series, respectability matters to the fans and at the box office and these types of smart signings that can slowly improve the club are a path to a better future.

Basically, Andrecheck says in a few words what I tried to express in many words. “Respectability matters.”

by Daniel Gettinger

From an offensive perspective, players who get on base are good.  Players who hit for power are too. Players who both reach base frequently, and hit for power are really good.

Because a good measure of getting on base is on-base percentage (OBP), and a decent measure of power is slugging percentage (SLG), it has become somewhat mainstream to evaluate offensive performance by combining the two measures into OPS (OBP+SLG).

Unfortunately, adding SLG to OBP, while easy to calculate, is not an entirely accurate measure of offensive performance.  The main reason is OPS treats OBP and SLG as equals that are scaled in the same manner.  In fact, OBP is actually more important than SLG.  Given two players with the same OPS, the one with the higher OBP is better offensively.

Inside the Book Blog recently published an excerpt from PAAPFLY that illustrates the issue:

Continuing my bashing of Bengie Molina, allow me to show you how his terrible OBP can be quite detrimental. Bengie Molina posted a .727 OPS in 2009, which isn’t very good. Ryan Theriot managed to post an even lower OPS of .712 in 2009. He must be the inferior offensive player. Wrong. Molina’s wOBA is actually .308 to Theriot’s .318. Though Theriot slugged 73 points less than Molina, his OBP was 58 points higher, and, wOBA shows us that his 58 OBP points to Molina’s 73 slugging points were actually worth an additional 10 points in wOBA. This is just a quick example and a good way to illustrate just how much Molina’s extraordinary out making skills truly do hurt his team, offensively of course.

From a Padres’ perspective, I liken the Molina/Theriot example to that of Chase Headley and Kevin Kouzmanoff.  This is how Kouzmanoff and Headley stacked up in 2009:

	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Kouzmanoff	0.302	0.420	0.722	0.312
Headley	0.342	0.392	0.734	0.328

Although not a perfect example (because Headley’s OPS was slightly higher than Kouzmanoff’s OPS), we can see that Headley’s wOBA is 5% greater than Kouzmanoff’s wOBA, compared to only a 1.6% difference in OPS. The reason is Headley’s superior on base skills.

OPS is an okay estimate of offensive skill.  But the only advantage it has over a stat like wOBA, which properly weights OBP and OPS, is ease of calculability.  It would be nearly impossible to calculate a player’s wOBA based on the information given by the stadium scoreboard, or the Channel 4 stat-line.  However, outside of convenience, there is no good reason to use OPS.

by Myron Logan

Bloomberg Sports is launching new fantasy and professional baseball products. Today, they unveiled their products at their NYC headquarters, which had my Twitter page abuzz. David Appelman has some really cool screenshots at FanGraphs, including this one:

I’m not sure how much of what they are doing hasn’t already been done on the ‘net, but the presentation sure looks nice. Plus, the ability to easily toggle through all MLB players is a huge bonus. This is the major league product, so I don’t think we’ll be seeing much more of it. Sure is fun to look at, though.

by Myron Logan

Dex has the humorous full report on the Padres town hall meeting.

The first edition of PECOTA is out, although they are still working on various kinks. The Padres projected record is 76-86. CAIRO projections have also been released, and the Padres come out a little worse at 72-90.

Project Prospect released their top 25. Two Padres made the list: Jaff Decker (18) and James Darnell (22). Here’s a detailed scouting report on Darnell. 

A reader at Lookout Landing created a very cool sabermetric library.

by Myron Logan

Don’t forget about tomorrow’s chat right here at Friar Forecast.

At Ducksnorts, Geoff looks into Bud Black’s handling of starting pitchers. Result: He doesn’t like to leave his starters in too long, and he’s been near the top of the NL in quick hooks over the past few years. This is good news for youngsters like Mat Latos, but it is also good because generally relievers are better their first time against a line-up than starters their third or fourth time around. Plus, in the National League, it obviously hurts offensive production to stick with a pitcher hitting in the ninth slot too long into the game.

RJ’s Fro has another interview, this one with newly acquired Padres outfielder, Aaron Cunningham. Fun stuff. Cunningham sounds excited to be in San Diego.

Jbox gives us some brief, comical descriptions of Padres starters.

Ray makes the case for starting Jerry Hairston Jr. over David Eckstein at The Sac Bunt. It is not particularly hard to make the case for anyone to start over Eckstein at this point in his career.

Bill Center has a brief report on the Padres DR campus in the Union-Tribune:

But the new ownership group led by Jeff Moorad is not nearly as enamored with the facility - which is considered to be the best in the Dominican Republic …. But the Padres will probably be de-emphasizing their Latin American efforts under the leadership of Moorad, club president Tom Garfinkel and Hoyer. Only one Dominican Republic amateur of significance was signed last year compared to six in 2008 as the facility was opening.

This is definitely an interesting development.

WebSoulSurfer takes a crack at estimating the Padres payroll, and comes up with about $33 million as of right now.

In an interview at Baseball Prospectus, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik talks about former Padres Director of Baseball Ops, Jeff Kingston (h/t: Corey Brock):

But with Jeff … every time you’re in this chair, you want to make sure that everything around you meets your comfort level. With Jeff, there was a real bonding if you will. I’ve known him for awhile, and when the position became available, I interviewed a bunch of guys, a great group of guys, and Jeff was someone who just really fit the criteria I was looking for. He’s young, he’s smart, and he’s done a lot of things in a short period of time. There was simply a great comfort level and I think that’s important

He goes on to talk about the Mariners statistical analysis department, among other things.

by Daniel Gettinger

A few weeks ago, I recommended Chris Jaffe’s book Evaluating Baseball Managers.

For those interested, Geoff has an excerpt from the book up at Ducksnorts.  In the excerpt, Jaffe examines former Padres manager Dick Williams.

by Myron Logan

Note: After I wrote this, two of my colleagues at Friar Forecast, Ben and Daniel, penned their takes on the trade. Parts of my analysis is eerily similar to Daniel’s, though are conclusions are not exactly the same.

The Padres have apparently traded Kevin Kouzmanoff and second base prospect Eric Sogard to the Oakland A’s for OF prospect Aaron Cunningham and Scott Hairston. The deal is not official, and I’ll update this post if there are any changes.

Let’s run it down, player by player:

Kevin Kouzmanoff, according to the FanGraphs metrics, has been remarkably consistent in his three years in San Diego. His wOBA ranged between .339 (non park-adjusted) in 2007 and .312 last year. His fielding, by UZR, went from about average in his first two seasons, to +7.5 last year. Overall, his WAR totals ranged from 2.7 to – wait for it – 2.8. He certainly projects to be in the 2-2.5 range next season, and he’s under A’s control through 2012. Repeating an analysis I did earlier this off-season, here’s a quick-and-dirty expected value chart for Kouz:

Depending on what numbers you use, Kouz is projected to be worth around $14-15 million in surplus value over the length of his contract. Kouzmanoff’s departure, however, does not leave the gaping hole that one might expect, as Chase Headley can now leave the unfamiliar terrain in the outfield and return to his natural position at third (not to mention, the Padres have a number of solid third base prospects should Headley not live up to the hype).

Eric Sogard, the second base prospect leaving the Padres organization, was drafted in the second round of the 2007 draft. Baseball America 2009 ranked Sogard as the 17th best Pads prospect, comparing him to Todd Walker due to his solid offensive skills but questionable glove. Sogard followed with a nice double-A debut, hitting .293/.370/.400. CHONE projects him at nearly 1 WAR next season.

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The Padres reacquire Scott Hairston, who spent parts of the last three seasons in San Diego. Hairston started hot last year, hitting .299/.358/.533 (.390 wOBA) in 216 PAs with the Padres, but struggled mightily upon his arrival in Oakland, hitting .236/.262/.391 (.279 wOBA) down the stretch. Overall, though, he has been a consistent performer, with WAR values of 1.4, 1.8, and 1.8 over the last three years, respectively.

If you project those years out (to 600 PAs), which is not advisable for many reasons, those values look more like: 2.9, 3, and 2.3. It is not advisable, of course, because Hairston has played against a disproportional amount of lefties/good matchups, being largely a platoon player, but it does help to show just how productive he has been while on the field.

If we conservatively project Hairston at 1.5 WAR next year, and 1.3 in 2011, then he should be worth about $14 million on the open market, over the next two seasons (both under Padres control). If we estimate that he will make $10 million over those two seasons, then his surplus value is only about $4 million, $10 million or so less than Kouzmanoff’s.

The Padres also acquire outfield prospect Aaron Cunningham, who was ranked fourth in the A’s system by Baseball America 2009, where they said he has “tools (that) are average or better across the board, but doesn’t have an outstanding tool that points to star potential.” Cunningham hit well in triple-A last year as a 23 year old, putting up a .302/.379/.479 line in Sacramento, and his overall minor league OPS sits at .875 (in over 2000 PAs). His short major league performance has not been impressive, as he has put up a .272 wOBA, splitting 144 plate appearances between 2008 and 2009. CHONE projects him similarly to Sogard, at just under a win next season.

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It appears to me, on this initial look, that the A’s probably improve their team more in the short-term, and also gain an extra year of control with Kouzmanoff versus Hairston, which is important. The Padres seem to be banking on two things in this deal: one, that Headley and company can fill in adequately at third, at worst minimizing the loss of Kouzmanoff, and at best equaling or bettering his performance at a cheaper price. And two, that swapping Eric Sogard for Aaron Cunningham will cut into that ~$10 million surplus the A’s gained with the Kouz-Hairston exchange.

I do not really have a problem with the deal, as I do not think either Kouzmanoff or Hairston are the type of players a rebuilding organization needs. Kouzmanoff, a solid player, obviously, will likely begin a gradual decline, and simultaneously see yearly pay increases. The Padres have cheaper options at third. Hairston, who could probably be a serviceable everyday starter, if given the opportunity, is in a similar situation – he is a nice spare part on a contender, but does not do a whole lot for a mid-70s win team. In fact, I would not be surprised if Hairston is again traded at some point, depending on how the season takes shape.

I guess my only reservation with the deal is that San Diego used one of their valuable chips in part to bring in Scott Hairston. I like Hairston as a player, but – again – I prefer him on a contender. I would have rather seen the Padres use Kouzmanoff to bring in a couple of prospects, even near major league ready ones like Cunningham, rather than just one prospect and a 30 year old (plus, they also lose a decent prospect in Sogard).

As mentioned, Hairston can still be shipped off for another prospect or two later this season if things fall apart, and if he reestablishes his value, so either way I do not dislike the trade.Two smart teams doing business; sometimes it is tough to find a clear winner.

by Myron Logan

According to Corey Brock, the Padres and Heath Bell have come to a one year deal worth $4 million, avoiding arbitration. The Padres closer, who made just over $1.25 million last season, gets a large (and well-deserved) pay increase. Bell, 32 years old, is under San Diego’s control through 2011.

Since joining the Padres in 2006, Bell has posted a 2.72 ERA in 241 innings, striking out 252 batters and allowing just 11 home runs. According to FanGraphs, Bell has been worth about $23 million over the last three years (on the free market), while making just over $2 million. While he should easily be worth more than $4 million in 2010, the gap between his free market value and actual salary should begin its decline phase.

by Myron Logan

SDPads is on a roll with his new blog, and has a couple of posts on the Padres marketing efforts, and an interview with Padres President and COO Tom Garfinkel. The interview is definitely an entertaining read.

Melvin at The Sac Bunt follows up on SDPad’s marketing posts, with some ideas of his own. I agree that Everth Cabrera, Kyle Blanks, and Mat Latos provide a nice trio to build (and market) around.

jbox listened to Jed Hoyer’s interview, and reports:

• Hoyer says we need to invest in the future here, build up scouting staff, hire a ton of new people, keep spending a lot of money in the draft.  The Padres are spending a lot of money outside of the Major League Payroll.

MadFriars gives us a detailed overview of the changes to the Padres scouting staff.

Geoff Young shares the Ducksnorts’ community projections (and results) from last year. It is interesting that a group of intelligent fans that follow the team so closely can be so far off on many players. Predicting the future is tough.

by Myron Logan

Geoff Young’s Ducksnorts, after being down for a few months due to hosting problems, is back online! Geoff is abandoning the long, feature length articles he tried last year, and is returning to shorter, more frequent posts. I think that is a good idea, but I am glad Geoff’s Padres blog is back, no matter what form his writing comes in.

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Sdpads, who ran the aptly named Sdpads1 blog, has created a new Padres blog called RJ’s Fro. He has added a couple of partners and a real nice setup. I am looking forward to reading more of his stuff.

Also, I recently came across another new Padres blog – the Friarhood. Check it out.

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Finally, the last thing I wanted to mention was the recent changes announced at Baseball Prospectus. Joe Sheehan, one of BP’s most prolific writers for a long time, is gone. Added to the fold, however, are talented folks like Colin Wyers, Russell Carleton (Pizza Cutter), Tommy Bennett, and Jeff Euston (Cot’s Contracts).

About a year ago, I let my BP subscription run out, after subscribing to the site for four or five years. The combination of great research and writing, from guys like Nate Silver, Keith Woolner, and Dan Fox, was gone. It appeared to me like BP was pretty clearly trying to shift to become a more mainstream site, with smart analysis but little new research. While that still has its appeal, it did not seem worth the cost, with so much free stuff out there.

However, if Baseball Prospectus is going to return to its roots, and again foster innovative ideas and methodologies behind guys like Wyers and Carleton, then I may definitely have to consider re-subscribing.