by Daniel Gettinger

Special thanks to Melvin for designing our new logo.  It really looks great!

by Daniel Gettinger

Recently, we were asked to join the Yardbarker Network.

Yardbarker is a network of sports blogs.  It contains over 100 personal athlete blogs, as well as team specific and general sports blogs.  Yardbarker has recently partnered with Fox Sports/MSN to begin syndicating content from network blogs on their sites.

We have decided to join the Yardbarker Network in an effort to expand our readership. The quality of discussion that takes place on Friar Forecast has been great, and we hope that by expanding our readership, those discussions will become even richer.

Although we are joining the Yardbarker Network, Friar Forecast remains an independent blog.  The content of the site will be completely unaffected.

To conform with Yardbarker regulations, we will have to make a few design adjustments:

1) As you may have already noticed, there is now a Yardbarker navigation bar at the top of the site.

2) A Yardbarker widget has been added to the side-bar underneath the recent comments.  This widget contains links to Padres related articles on other sites and blogs.

3) We are forced to include some advertisements.  I have been assured that the ads will be unobtrusive.  The ads are not being introduced in an attempt to monetize the site. Rather, they are merely a requirement of joining the Yardbarker Network.

It may take us a few weeks to get the site design straightened out.  Please be patient as we make the necessary adjustments, and get the site looking as good as possible given the introduction of the new features.

If you have any suggestions on site-design, please let us know.  I have very little (basically zero) web-design experience, so any tips/advice would be highly appreciative.

We are hopeful that our relationship with Yardbarker will help enhance the community experience here at Friar Forecast, and are excited to be joining the network!

by Myron Logan

Okay, so I mentioned it in yesterday’s post, and I’ve been thinking more and more about re-subscribing to Baseball Prospectus, which announced some changes on Monday.

The short back story: I found out about Baseball Prospectus somewhere around 2004 after reading Moneyball. I quickly bought one of their annual books and subscribed to the online content. I was hooked. BP was essentially my Bill James, piquing my interest in sabermetrics and a deeper understanding of the game. Articles by Nate Silver, Dan Fox, and Keith Woolner (among  others) were always insightful, entertaining, and thought-provoking. Not to mention, I had access to PECOTA and the rest of the stable of solid BP writers. $40? That was a bargain.

Somewhere in the last few years, however, I realized myself visiting BP less and less often. $40 a year still was not breaking the bank, but was it worth it for something I rarely used? Nate Silver left the site for his political endeavors, Keith Woolner joined the Indians, and Dan Fox similarly found himself in an MLB front office. It is a credit to BP that about half of their stats-based authors seem to eventually get scooped up by MLB teams, but it also left an unfilled hole in their content.

Now, it seemed to me at this time, BP made a concerted effort to become more “mainstream,” to appeal to a wider audience. They had gained tremendous popularity through the years, and were now serving a broader demographic of people, with maybe only a small percent really caring about which pythagorean win estimator worked best. This was fine, and probably a good business decision, but it did not really appeal to my specific tastes.

At the same time, it seemed like sabermetric writing was popping up all over the net. The Hardball Times was as good as ever, Beyond the Boxscore had been rejuvenated, FanGraphs added a writing element to complement their great stats section, and Tango’s Inside the Book Blog was being updated daily. There were more, too, like Baseball Analysts and Statistically Speaking, not to mention countless team-based blogs.

With all that considered, I let my subscription run out, and have gone without it for a good year or so. Say, for instance, you are an avid bowler, and you have three local alleys to choose from. Two are free, and one is two bucks a game. If the one happens to be vastly superior to the other two, then maybe you will fork up the extra $2 dollars to bowl there. But if the three alleys are essentially equal, well, in time you are probably going to quit going to the one that costs money, and spend your time at the free ones. That is basically what happened. BP shifted their content away from what I wanted, and other sites emerged or improved to fill the void. And my mom saved $40 a year.

In Kevin Goldstein’s announcement, however, it appears that BP is going to again put a much stronger emphasis on pure sabermetrics, with the additions of guys like Russell Carleton/Pizza Cutter (whose work has been featured primarily at StatSpeak) and Colin Wyers (StatSpeak and The Hardball Times). Both guys are super active in the saber-community; they are smart, creative, and they write well. BP has also brought in Tommy Bennett (Beyond the Boxscore) and Jeff Euston (proprietor of Cot’s Contracts), adding to a group of saber writers that also includes recently hired Eric Seidman (graduating from about eight different baseball sites) and Matt Swartz.

To get back to my original question, is this form of Baseball Prospectus worth $40, when I can still get a bunch of analysis, research, and stats for free at the above-mentioned sites? That is certainly an individualized question; personally, I am not sure yet, but the decision is harder than it was a few days ago. What is your take?

by Myron Logan

Geoff Young’s Ducksnorts, after being down for a few months due to hosting problems, is back online! Geoff is abandoning the long, feature length articles he tried last year, and is returning to shorter, more frequent posts. I think that is a good idea, but I am glad Geoff’s Padres blog is back, no matter what form his writing comes in.

****

Sdpads, who ran the aptly named Sdpads1 blog, has created a new Padres blog called RJ’s Fro. He has added a couple of partners and a real nice setup. I am looking forward to reading more of his stuff.

Also, I recently came across another new Padres blog – the Friarhood. Check it out.

****

Finally, the last thing I wanted to mention was the recent changes announced at Baseball Prospectus. Joe Sheehan, one of BP’s most prolific writers for a long time, is gone. Added to the fold, however, are talented folks like Colin Wyers, Russell Carleton (Pizza Cutter), Tommy Bennett, and Jeff Euston (Cot’s Contracts).

About a year ago, I let my BP subscription run out, after subscribing to the site for four or five years. The combination of great research and writing, from guys like Nate Silver, Keith Woolner, and Dan Fox, was gone. It appeared to me like BP was pretty clearly trying to shift to become a more mainstream site, with smart analysis but little new research. While that still has its appeal, it did not seem worth the cost, with so much free stuff out there.

However, if Baseball Prospectus is going to return to its roots, and again foster innovative ideas and methodologies behind guys like Wyers and Carleton, then I may definitely have to consider re-subscribing.

by Daniel Gettinger

Recently, Myron announced he will no longer be frequently contributing to the blog, and that I will take on the role of “adminstrator” of Friar Forecast.

Myron’s decision to take a much more passive role is a huge blow not only to Friar Forecast, but also to analytically minded Padres (and baseball) fans who, over the past few years, have become accustomed to reading his astute commentary on a regular basis.

While Myron will obviously be missed, I am confident Friar Forecast will continue to house engaging commentary and analysis (at least we will try).  Win or lose, we will be here with you throughout the Padres’ ‘09 season (and hopefully beyond).

Going forward, I would like to bring on some new voices.  A larger stable of bloggers will help re-energize Friar Forecast by allowing us to provide more regular, quality content.  If you are interested in contributing to the site, please send me a quick email (danielgettinger@gmail.com), and we will figure something out.  (Please note: I don’t care if you have not had your own baseball blog, or have never been a frequent commenter.  Even if you have always just been a reader, but feel you have insight you would like to share, I would love to hear from you).

In a bit of unfortunate timing, I am currently traveling, and will only have limited Internet access through late April.  I plan to offer brief thoughts on the Padres’ season whenever possible, but extensive analysis from me will be minimal.  I look forward to resuming a more regular posting schedule when I return in a few weeks.

Okay, enough boring blabber.  It’s the start of the baseball season.  The slate is clean, and anything can happen.  San Diego Padres-Your Next World Series Champions!

by Myron Logan

Hello, folks. This is my final post here at Friar Forecast – or at least my final post as the owner of the site. Daniel Gettinger has agreed to take over the blog and – much like the Padres – we’ll be working on the transition over the coming days/weeks.

You are probably curious as to why, after nearly two years of blogging (and with the start of the season on the doorstep), I am giving it up. The short answer is simply that I feel it’s time to go in another direction. Real life has caught up to me, I guess. The long answer is, well, far too long and boring for me to share here. I’m tremendously grateful that Daniel has decided to keep this thing going, though. Trust me, I’m as interested in continuing to read his stuff as anybody, and I’m eager to follow the progress of the blog over the coming months.

I hope that my writing here has entertained and educated you a bit. I really hope so. But I know that through this whole blogging experience I have certainly learned a lot, both about baseball and myself. You can’t put a dollar figure on how much it’s been worth to me (my now defunct Adsense account can testify to that : ).

Before I sign off, I’d like to say thanks to some people. Thanks to Geoff Young for basically exposing this blog to the public, and for becoming a good friend in the process. Thanks to the guys at Gaslamp Ball, The Sacrifice Bunt, and all the other blogs out there that stopped by and linked here. Thanks to Chris Long, Tom Tango, Rich Lederer, and John Conniff. Thanks to Mike Rogers, Daniel Gettinger, and Ben Davey. And, perhaps most importantly, thanks to all of the Friar Forecast readers, whether you stumbled upon this place once (and likely never returned) or you visited everyday and were a frequent commenter.

Seriously, it’s been a lot of fun. And I promise, I won’t just disappear. I’m sure you’ll see me commenting at various blogs (including this one, of course) and maybe I’ll even write a guest post or two from time to time.

I’ll see ya around … and go Padres!
–Myron

by Myron Logan

The chat went really well yesterday; much better than I could have expected, especially considering it was the first one. I think I’m going to do weekly, or semi-weekly chats. Tentatively, look for another one with me next week at the same day, same time. As I mentioned before, we’ll try to mix some of the other FF writers in as well. Also, for anyone with a blog looking to do chats, I highly recommend the CoverItLive software. It’s super easy and a lot of fun. There are a ton of cool features, many of which I didn’t even use.

Now for some links:

Geoff and the gang at Ducksnorts are running through the community projections. And I’m sure you know by now, but The Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual is ready for purchase. Buy it!

Speaking of projections, WebSoulSurfer has unveiled some of his own over at his blog.

At GLB, sdgaucho notifies us that the Pads are on MLB Network’s 30 in 30 series on Saturday night. I’ve enjoyed the series and look forward to that show.

At the Hardball Times, Peter Jenson is doing some superb work with Gameday’s fielding data.

This article by Mike Fast, on DIPS and PITCHf/x data, is on my reading list. Might need to print that puppy out.

There are a lot of ways to measure power, and Patriot covers most of them here. I’m interested in seeing things like speed and angle off bat, from the new HITf/x system.

By the way, there is discussion of just about all of these articles at The Book Blog, which is, outside of Pads blogs, my first stop everyday.

Okay, a few more. Found a new PITCHf/x blog, via Beyond the Boxscore, that looks promising. Heat maps are cool!

Neat look at base running over at the Baseball Analysts.

That should keep ya busy ….

by Myron Logan

Edit: Okay, the chat is coming up. I’ll probably open it up a little early, so you can begin submitting questions. At around 12:30, I’ll start answering them. Ask away!

Ahh, what the heck, let’s try this out. Okay, the details are in the title. Right here this Thursday at Friar Forecast – we’re trying to set a record for the smallest blog to host its own chat – we’ll be chatting at 12:30 PM EDT (which is 9:30 AM out West, where I know many of you are). This first one will be hosted by me, Myron Logan, but if it’s somewhat successful, we’ll set ‘em up with the co-bloggers, if they are willing …

Anyway, I’ll be thrilled to get like 20 questions, so if you’re around don’t be afraid to leave one (or more!). And anything is fair game. Like Mr. Gleeman, I encourage “off-topic” stuff in a format like this. We’ll see how this goes. I’ll repost this somehow on Thursday, but mark your calendars! The screen below is what you use for the chat, when the time comes:

by Myron Logan

As you can probably tell from my latest shenanigans, I’ve been thinking a bit about making some changes/enhancements to the blog, as we head into another season.

I tried this kind of post earlier in my blogging days and it was relatively successful (though, it always makes me cringe to read my own writing, especially the earlier stuff : )

So, what I am looking for is any type of feedback on the blog and anything related: the content, the theme, new features, anything. Is something not working, is there something you think I can improve on? Anything, lemme have it! And I’m using “I” because I’m writing this alone, but go ahead and direct anything to Ben, Daniel, or Mike. They are as much a part of this place as me, at this point.

Any feedback is great, but here are some specific things I’ve been thinking about:

• A forum – I actually just created one, though after thinking about it, I don’t think it’s something that would work, for many reasons. Do you have any interest in something like that or are there already enough of them out there?
• A weekly/semi-weekly chat – There is a tool out there called CoveritLive that allows anyone to set up a chat relatively easily. These would be like what you’ve seen on Baseball Prospectus, Aarongleeman.com, the Union Tribune’s Pads’ site, Beyond The Boxscore, etc. Obviously, there aren’t nearly as many readers here as at those places, but I still think they could be fun. What do ya think?
• The theme – I hesitate to change the theme because I like its simplicity (and I hope the site is fast and pretty easy to navigate). But there is always a time for change and I wouldn’t mind thinking about trying out a new one, especially if anyone thinks it would be a good idea, for whatever reasons.
• Interviews – I could pursue some interviews with saber-guys (like Tango), Padres bloggers/fans/analysts, or Padres staffers (like Mr. Long). My past ‘interviews’ have been remarkably successful, and I always toy around with the idea of seeking more of them out, but they are a bit of a process, too.

Those are a few specific things, but, again, nothing is off limits. I look forward to hearing from you, and as always, thanks for checking in!

by Myron Logan

double edit: Okay, already have a couple of users signed up (thanks, guys). I guess we’ll see how this things go. Register if you’re interested! This should serve as a lesson … 1) not to start a forum before you think about it and 2) not to retract your forum idea before you think about it : )

edit: Okay, scratch this idea. I’ve been thinking about it, and I don’t think there is a market for this. If I can ever implement something similar to what SBN has, I’d do that. I’ll leave this post up and the forum up and we’ll see if anything materializes, but you can feel free to ignore this. Just another example of me getting carried away with something and not thinking it through …

 Anyway, I’ve been thinking about adding different features to the blog, and this was one of them — I’ll probably have a post up sometime soon, similar to one I did last year, asking for your input on some things. We’ll see how that goes ….

Check it out!

It is really easy to register: you know, screen name, password, a few questions … and you’re good to go.

I know it may seem like overkill, having both a blog and a forum. But I’ve mentioned before that I think that a community of fans is where the real value is at. A blog is certainly a community, but the discussion is directed by me (and now, Mike, Daniel, and Ben). That’s all good, but what if you want to talk about something that isn’t being discussed on the blog. Sure, you might make a comment somewhere, but you’ll probably just let it go. Now, you’ve got a chance to direct the discussion.

I also know there are many Padres forums out there: ESPN, MLB, Union Tribune, MadFriars, Hank’s Padres Discussion, Friar Nation, etc. Some of them are good, some not so much. I’m certainly not trying to compete with any of them; just trying to add an additional outlet, where trolling is nonexistent, everyone gets a fresh start, and analysis/thoughtfulness is encouraged (and getting page views is irrelevant).

What I’d really like to implement is something like what SBN has, where users can essentially create their own posts right on the sidebar of Friar Forecast. But I haven’t seen anything like that, so this is the next best option, I think. That said, I’d still like to be able to highlight good posts/discussion on the forum and put them in a post at FF, sort of a poor man’s SBN.

If it looks like, from what I’ve written above, I have high hopes for this thing, well, I really don’t. Outside of Friar Forecast, I’m about 0-10 in my web-based adventures. Many times they don’t work out, for many reasons, and I’m expecting that there’s a good chance this doesn’t catch on. I figured it wouldn’t hurt to try it out, though, and here we are (it was easier than I imagined to set up).

Please offer any suggestions either here or at the new forum. And please don’t be afraid to promote this thing if you think it has any promise, because you guys know how I am with that stuff.

I hope to see you over there!