by Mike Rogers

Clayton Richard made his San Diego Padres debut on Saturday against the Milwaukee Brewers after being acquired by the Pads for Jake Peavy (trade valuation coming from me sometime tomorrow on Beyond the Boxscore where I’ll be joining the BtB team of writers) on Friday. Before we jump into the PITCHf/x, lets look at the start through the numbers:

5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 90 pitches (49 strikes), 8 ground outs, 4 fly outs.

Now, onto the graph-y goodness. First up is the release points (click images to enlarge):

Richard stands 6-foot-5 and weighs in at 240-pounds, but he was consistently “releasing” the baseball at just under 6-foot. So, he comes from a 3/4 arm slot. But, he repeats his delivery well and comes from a very consistent release point.

Now, the strikezone plot:

He only threw 49 strikes out of the 90 total pitches, so he was a bit wild. The view is from the catcher’s perspective, so he worked away from right-handed hitters for most of the night, but given the amount of right-handers he faced, that’s not surprising.

And speaking of how he attacked right-handed and left-handed batters, here’s a couple pie graphs:

Typical platoon split: drops the change-up versus left-handed hitters, and picks it back up against right-handers. Overall, though, he worked the fastball (either four-seam [FF] or two-seam [FT]) all night.

And now the pitch flight graph (again, courtesy of Harry Pavlidis):

My breakdown of Clayton Richard differs a bit from Myron Logan’s. I attempted to split up the four-seam and two-seam fastballs as best I could, but I still might be/am probably wrong on some of them. I wound up with 48 four-seamers and 21 two-seamers while averaging 91.7 MPH on the former and 90.4 on the latter. His four-seamer seemed to have a bit more arm-side run, but less sink (minimally). Just keep in mind that I was eye-balling the fastballs and made some judgement calls, so they aren’t anywhere near 100% accurate (and if they are, it’s absolute luck on my part).

As far as his breaking ball goes, MLB Gameday classified three of them as curveballs, but after graphing them out, there was virtually no difference in flight path from his slider. I don’t know if he throws a curveball or a slider, but on the flight paths I went with curveball as I believe that’s what the scouting report on him says. As you probably noticed, I classified them all as sliders on the other graphs — that’s just a little mistake on my part, but they’re still depicting the same data set. Either way, he’s got a bit of “sweep” on his slider and some decent downward movement.

Meanwhile, his change-up has some arm-side run but very little sinking action.

On the whole, Richard looks to have pretty average stuff for a big, tall lefty, but his results speak for themselves thus far: 4.32 FIP in 142.1 big league innings pitched. So, he’s definitely a back-end starter, but he’s got value as he’s probably above-average for a number 5 starter.

Overall, the Padres got a good haul in the Jake Peavy deal.

by Daniel Gettinger

By now, all of you are aware that Jake Peavy was traded to the Chicago White Sox.  The Padres received four young pitchers: Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, Dexter Carter, and Adam Russell.  This was a fantastic return for Peavy.  The Padres received one good prospect (Poreda), one solid but low upside prospect (Richard), and two guys who can throw hard, but are somewhat iffy to make a real contribution at the major league level (Carter and Russell).  Because Peavy is essentially going to get paid what he is worth, four players, including one good prospect, and another major league ready pitcher is a ridiculously good haul.

At Another Padres Blog, Myron estimated Peavy’s surplus value:

Myron concluded that Peavy is worth $4.5 million in surplus value over the next 3 years.  But he also warns that this type of analysis is built on a number of assumptions, so I am going to tweak the model just a bit. First, I want to include Peavy’s $4 million buyout due after the 2012 season, pushing his 2012 suprlus value down to $-5 million.  I also want to account for the fact that a win today is worth more than a win tomorrow.  Using a 10% discount rate, Peavy’s surplus value through 2012 becomes approximately $1 million.*

*Note: I decided not to adjust the FA salaries to reflect expected salary inflation.  Doing so would have required I make assumptions about the state of the economy.  Since predicting economic conditions two or three years out is an incredibly inaccurate exercise, I won’t even bother.

So, in order for this to be a good deal, the Padres only needed to acquire $1 million of surplus value.  Myron cites Victor Wang’s research on expected prospect value in declaring the bundle of prospects the Padres received to be “worth about $11 million.”

Personally, I think that may be selling Richard short.  John Sickels graded Richard a C+ prospect prior to the start of this season.  According to Wang, a C+ pitching prospect over 23 years of age is only expected to generate $1.5 million in surplus value.  But this season with the White Sox, Richard has generated $5.9 million in value, while getting paid the minimum.  For his career (’08 included), Richard has pitched 136 innings and generated $9.3 million in value.  I really think Richard is better than a C+ prospect.  On average his fastball runs about 91 mph, he strikes out 6-7 batters per nine innings, and generates a ton of ground balls (nearly 50% ground ball rate).  Ground ball pitchers are often underrated, and I think Richard might fit that mold. Considering his success this season, I feel we need to bump up his projected surplus value to at least $7 million-about that of a “grade B” pitcher.

Basically, the Padres received between $10 M and $20 M of value in return for a currently injured pitcher with a thin build, a violent delivery, and a contract that is not a bargain any more.  Yeah, the team did alright here.

by Daniel Gettinger

When word broke a few days ago that Jake Peavy would miss some time with an ankle injury, I was not happy, yet for some reason not too concerned.  I just assumed that since he had been pitching on the injured ankle, he would take a month off as a precautionary measure, and then return to full health in time to be traded to a contender.  After reading Will Carroll’s take on the situation, labeling my assumption “false optimism” would be an understatement:

Jake Peavy (90 DXL)
For all intents and purposes, Peavy is done for the season. Yes, that statement is a little provocative, but in analyzing his ankle injury, I’m led to that conclusion via several routes. First, the injury itself is very significant, a Grade II tear of his posterior tibialis tendon that was severe enough to require a cast. When I first heard this, I expected it to be an old term that we still use for something else, like saying “I’m taping the game” when I’m actually using TiVo. No, this wasn’t an aircast or a walking boot; this was the old-style hard cast, designed to keep Peavy from putting any weight at all on the ankle, and forcing him to rest. He’ll have that cast on for the better part of a month, which takes us past the All-Star break. At that point, he’ll then be out of the cast, but hardly out of the woods. The posterior tibialis is, like most tendons, slow-healing, and when walking, the tendon is taxed on each and every step. At best, he’d miss another month, and that’s not including the time necessary to get his arm back in order. This best-case scenario has the Padres‘ ace back by mid-August. Even a slight setback or push from the best-case scenario puts him dangerously close to September; at that stage the Padres will have to decide if getting him back is worth it, or if allowing him to rest more to be fully healed by spring training is the wiser course. As usual with situations like this, the standings will have a lot to do with it. If the Padres were a couple of games out, Peavy—even at less than 100 percent—could make a difference of a game or two. (I don’t mean this in a VORP/WARP context, but rather in much the same way that pushing CC Sabathia out on short rest worked for the Brewers last season.) I’m not laying bets on the Pads being in this position, so the smart play would be to shut him down or to just have make a cameo “OK, the ankle’s fine” appearance. In other words, while he may play, the chance of him accumulating significant innings or fantasy stats is very low, and moreover, the risk/reward for the Padres is way out of balance.

***Note: The full article is much longer, and behind a paywall.  I probably should not have clipped even this much, but hopefully I will not get in too much trouble.

Wow.  Out for the season is a much different scenario than “out for four weeks.”  Peavy would obviously not be able to the help the Padres win games this season, but more importantly, a season ending injury rules out a trade to a contending team.  Not good.

This situation serves as a reminder for why small to mid market teams should not allow one player to comprise a large proportion of their payroll.  (Particularly a high effort pitcher).  One injury to that player, and the team is severely affected.  Both on the field, and in terms of its flexibility to make other moves.

Carroll’s take on the situation might be entirely off base.  He has not examined Peavy personally, nor does he have his medical records.  Carroll is actually not even a doctor.  But he seems to know his stuff, and he has a pretty decent track record of assessing the seriousness of sports injuries.  I am still hopeful Peavy can return prior to July 31, but now realize that is not at all likely.  Peavy may be out for the year.

by Daniel Gettinger

Websoulsurfer says the Padres should not trade Peavy unless the team “can get back a couple of high upside, impact type prospects.”  He also believes the decision to trade Peavy should be entirely separate from whether the Padres expect to be a good or bad team this year, or at any point in the future.

I disagree on both counts.  But sometimes it is good to hear someone else’s opinion as well.

by Daniel Gettinger

In previous posts, I have hinted that I believe the Padres should trade Jake Peavy, but I have never taken a forceful stance on the issue, nor have I explained my reasoning.  In the aftermath of yesterday’s excitement, I would like to take a step back, and explain why the Padres should trade Jake Peavy…

1) The Padres are not great this year, and unlikely to be great next year.  Regardless of how dominant Peavy is, his contributions over the next few years will not have as much value to the Padres as some other team. When an asset has more value to someone else, there is a great opportunity for a mutually beneficial trade. 

2) The prospects the Padres will get in return for Peavy are more likely to help the club win 3 years from now than Jake Peavy.  This argument holds even if Peavy does not decline.  In return for Peavy, the Padres get not only a package of quality prospects, but also remove Peavy’s contract from their liabilities.  If the team feels it is close to contending, it can sign, or trade for a player/players due $15 million per season, and the contract situation will be a wash.  The contributions of the prospects, combined with $15 million worth of free agents/trade targets is likely to exceed those of Jake Peavy.*

*Note: Over the course of Peavy’s contract, the contributions are expected to be the same.  Otherwise, no team would offer up prospects AND pay Peavy’s salary.   The Padres are only receiving prospects because Peavy is signed to a below market deal.  However, as previously stated, the Padres are not as interested in success today as they are success in the future.  It is in the future that the contributions of the prospects, combined with the $15 million in other players will exceed those of Jake Peavy.

3) Jake Peavy’s salary is too risky for a smaller market club like the Padres.  If Jake Peavy gets hurt, and is unable to pitch effectively over the duration of his contract, the Padres are in serious trouble.  If we assume the team’s long-term payroll will be somewhere around $75 million per season, a Peavy injury would force the team to effectively operate with only $60 million of healthy players.  Any contract that makes up a large proportion of a team’s payroll for multiple seasons is risky, but that risk is amplified for pitchers, and even more so for smaller, “maximum effort” type pitchers like Peavy.

4) Peavy is overrated, likely to decline over the next few years, and will miss Petco Park.  Yes, Peavy is a top-10 pitcher, but he is closer to number 10 than number 1.  Since 2007, Peavy has contributed 10.4 wins against replacement.  That is the eleventh best mark over that time.  Ahead of Peavy are players you would expect such as CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, and Brandon Webb, but also guys like Javier Vazquez, Gil Meche, and Dan Haren.  Andy Pettitte, Justin Verlander, and Derek Lowe follow Peavy, and are closer to Peavy in value than Peavy is to Sabathia.

Going forward, I expect Peavy to show a gradual decline.  His average fastball speed has slowed from 93.9 mph in 2007 to 92.6 mph in 2008, to 92.0 mph so far in 2009.  Likewise, Peavy has thrown a lot of innings in his career, and while he is still only 27 years old, I am very concerned about his ability to maintain his dominance into his 30s, and through 2012.

Further complicating the situation is that Peavy plays half his games in Petco Park.  While he strikes out a lot of batters, and has decent (though not spectacular control), he gives up a fairly high proportion of fly balls (38.6% since 2007).  Luckily for Peavy, only 8.7% of his flyballs have gone for homeruns, one of the best marks in the league over that time-frame.  Part of Peavy’s ability to limit homeruns is skill, but some of it can be attributed to Petco Park.  

It is quite possible Peavy will continue to be a top 10 pitcher through 2012.  I just find that unlikely.  Peavy is probably at the end of his prime.  I would like to trade him now, while other teams still value him as the ace he currently is.

Summary:

Peavy is currently one of the better pitchers in the league, but since the Padres are bad, that talent is going to waste.  A Peavy trade will make the Padres better off in the future, without sacrificing much success today (the team is already bad).  In addition, Peavy’s contract is too risky for the Padres, and Peavy is likely to decline to a “number-two” type pitcher by the time the team is ready to compete.  Trading Peavy makes sense, not just for financial reasons, but also as a means of improving the team.

by Daniel Gettinger

Here we go again.  In the offseason, rumors had Peavy first going to Atlanta, and then the Cubs.  Now Tom Krasovic is reporting the White Sox are interested in Peavy.  Supposedly trade talks have progressed to the point that “Peavy met with Padres manager Bud Black late last night to discuss a trade overture from the Sox.”

I don’t really want to comment on this story.  Not because I doubt the authenticity of it, but because there is really no point.  Peavy will either get traded (and accept a trade), or not.  If a trade does occur, we will then know exactly who the Padres are getting back.  One thing to keep in mind though: if the Padres are able to trade for some pitching, they may be more likely to go for a hitter with the third pick in the upcoming draft.  Here are some links to players I think the Padres might get back in a trade (note: I am not suggesting the team will receive all of these players, just a combination of one or more of them)…

• Aaron Poreda (P-AA)
• Gavin Floyd (P-MLB)
• Tyler Flowers (C-AA)
• Clayton Richard (P-MLB)
• Chris Getz (2B-AAA)

by Daniel Gettinger

Following his poor April 26th start against the Pirates, there were rumblings that perhaps something was wrong with Jake Peavy.  While I did not find any conclusive evidence that he was pitching any different than he did last season, people who had actually watched the game thought he was “nibbling” too much.  Pirates hitters seemed to concur. 

On May 1st against the Dodgers, Peavy’s results were much better.  He threw eight innings of shutout ball, struck out eight, and only walked one batter.  Great results, but did he actually throw the ball that much better?  Again, I was not able to watch the game, but the pitch f/x data suggests the only actual differences were pitch selection and better luck.

The first question I had was did Peavy throw the ball harder than against the Pirates?  The answer: NO.  On April 26, Peavy’s average fastball was 93.1 MPH.  On May 1: 92.5 MPH.  Likewise, against the Dodgers, his slider was 2 MPH slower than against the Pirates.

How about nibbling?  Was Jake more aggressive against the Dodgers than the Pirates?   NO.  In fact, he might have nibbled more.  The data found at brooksbaseball.net has a nibbleness score.  Nibbleness is defined as “the arithmetic mean of the distance of each pitch, in inches, from the edge of a normalized strike zone. Lower indicates ‘more Nibbley’.”  The following chart lists Peavy’s nibbleness score for each of his pitches in both games:

	Apr. 26	May-01
	Nibbleness	Nibbleness
Fastball	5.33	4.96
Change	7.42	5.9
Slider	6.64	7.83
Curve	5.62	6.79
Cutter	3.33	5.63

The Pitch f/x data suggests Peavy nibbled less against the Dodgers with his slider, curve, and cutter, but more with his fastball (his most frequently thrown pitch), and his change-up.

Plots of Peavy’s pitch locations also seem to show that he did not nibble less against the Dodgers.  The only difference I see is a tendency to do his nibbling on the right side of the strike zone against the Dodgers, but the left side against the Pirates…

April 26 (Pirates)

May 1 (Dodgers)

So, if pitch speed was actually down, and Peavy was not actually any more aggressive, what did change?  The only thing I can find is a reduction in the percentage of sliders he threw.  Against the Pirates, 31% of his pitches were sliders.  He only threw the slider for a strike 63% of the time.  Against the Dodgers, only 15% of his pitches were sliders.  This time his strike percentage was even worse: 55%.  Instead of the slider, Peavy threw more four-seamers and cutters.  Honestly though, I am not sure what to make of this (or whether there is anything to make of it).

The other thing I found was Peavy was just luckier against the Dodgers.  On April 26, 36% of all balls in play went for a hit.  On May 1st, Peavy’s BABIP dropped to 12%.  Sometimes a little luck is all a player needs to “turn things around.”

by Daniel Gettinger

Jake Peavy has started five games.  He has pitched 31.1 innings, and has a 5.74 ERA.  Something must be wrong, right?  Well, not exactly.  While I will not try to argue Peavy has been exceptional in 2009, his underlying stats do not demonstrate any conclusive reasons to be concerned.  Pitch FX data does show a possible loss in fastball velocity, and while this is something to monitor going forward, I again am cautious about drawing any conclusions about Peavy’s future effectiveness.

While Peavy has a 5.74 ERA, his FIP, which attempts to weed out some of the luck inherent in ERA, stands at a much more acceptable 4.05.  This difference is mostly attributed to a ridiculously high 0.340 BABIP.  For comparison’s sake, in 2008, Peavy had a 3.60 FIP.  In fact, Peavy is actually striking out more batters per nine innings than he did in 2008 (9.19 v. 8.60 K/9).  What has hurt Peavy is an uptick in walks and home runs allowed.  In 2009 Peavy has allowed 3.73 BB/9 compared to a career rate of 2.92.  His HR/9 currently sits at 1.15 compared to 0.92 for his career (note: the career rate is adversely affected by a 2003 season in which he gave up 33 HR, a number he has never come close to approaching again).

Normally I would not be too concerned about these numbers.  Peavy has not pitched enough innings in 2009 to make any definitive statements regarding a loss of control or a decreased ability to prevent the long ball using the statistics alone.  What concerns me though is the possibility that the increased walks and home runs allowed are a result of decreased fastball velocity.

In 2007, Peavy’s best season, he threw his fastball 62.4% of the time at an average speed of 93.9 MPH.  In 2008, he threw the fastball 58% of the time at an average speed of 92.6 MPH.  In 2009, he has thrown the fastball 52.2% of the time at an average speed of 91.7 MPH.  The horizontal and vertical movement on the fastball have remained fairly constant.  Only the speed of the pitch has changed.

Instead of throwing his four-seamer, Peavy is relying much more on a curve and cutter than he has in the past.  There are two primary explanations.  The first, and the more disheartening of the two, is that Peavy no longer has the stuff to overpower batters with his fastball.  Instead he is substituting towards the curve and cutter, pitches he does not control as well.  Decreased pitch speed could explain the increase in home runs allowed, while throwing more curves might be contributing to the increase in walks.

I prefer to take a more optimistic view.  I do not believe there is ample evidence to conclude Peavy’s fastball is slower than in 2008.  It is very possible that as the weather warms, so will Peavy’s arm.  By June, Peavy may be back to throwing 92-93 MPH on average.  In addition, I believe Peavy is throwing the curve ball more often because he has improved the pitch, not because he believes his fastball is less effective.  Compared to 2008, Peavy’s curve ball in 2009 has had double the vertical movement.  Perhaps he is experimenting with the pitch because he knows eventually it will become a useful and effective part of his arsenal, protecting against a true loss in velocity down the road.

It may be true that Peavy no longer has the stuff to overpower batters with the fastball.  But, at this point, I feel such conclusions are premature.  In the past, Peavy has had 5-game stretches where he appears to have performed poorly.  And he will have such stretches in the future.  Most of the time, Peavy’s performance in these stretches has been a tad below-average, but also exacerbated by bad luck.  This five start stretch is no different.  Peavy has not pitched as well as we have seen in the past, but a 0.340 BABIP has more to do with his 5.74 ERA than his actual performance.

by Daniel Gettinger

The Padres started the year 9-3, and while they have dropped their past three games, they still sit at a very respectable 9-6.  For a team that was expected to compete for the worst record in the majors, the team’s performance has been a pleasant surprise.  But will the strong play continue throughout the season?

Honestly, I have no idea, but I do believe it is too early to start discarding our pre-season beliefs about the team’s talent level.  The Padres have outscored their opponents by three runs this season, resulting in an expected record of 8-7.  Because of the small sample size, it is just as likely that the Padres are closer to a 6-9 team than a 9-6 team. 

In terms of individual performances, most of the batters seem to be performing pretty close to their pre-season predictions.  But, there are a few exceptions.  Brian Giles is struggling mightily.  With a 0.399 OPS, Giles has been one of the worst every-day players in the majors this season.  On the other end of the spectrum, Adrian Gonzalez has been absolutely mashing, as has Scott Hairston.  It is likely we will see all three players trend towards their true talent level as the season progresses.  I see these effects (Giles heating up, Hairston and Gonzalez cooling a bit) canceling each-other out.

The big surprise has been the pitching.  The team has a collective 3.93 ERA; remarkable considering Jake Peavy has a 5.13 ERA.  The back end of the bullpen has been particularly superb.  Neither Heath Bell, nor Cla Meredith have allowed a run.  Luke Gregerson has pitched solidly as well, surrendering only 3 runs in 10 innings.

Going forward, I am certain we will see better results from Peavy.  While his ERA is 5.13, his FIP sits at 3.77.  Peavy has merely gotten unlucky as evidenced by his 0.332 BABIP.  Unfortunately, I don’t think the other pitchers will be able to maintain their current pace.  Bell and Meredith will eventually surrender some runs.  Gregerson is unlikely to be able to maintain a 0.149 BABIP, and will almost certainly regress.  The non-Peavy starting pitchers are a little harder to gauge. 

Chris Young seems to be pitching pretty close to his true talent level, and has not been effected by extreme luck.  The other starters though are still wild-cards.  I really have no idea what to expect from Correia, Hill, Baek (when he returns), and Gaudin (once he builds up arm strength), but again, there is not enough evidence yet to discard our pre-season beliefs about them.  If the Padres receive even slightly below league average performances from these guys, I will be ecstatic. 

While the Padres have had a nice start to the season, there is no evidence they will continue to perform at such a high level.  At the same time, there is no conclusive evidence that the team has been ridiculously lucky either.  My advice: enjoy the run while it lasts.  And, hope the run lasts throughout the season.

by Myron Logan

Peavy’s Saturday performance was not overly impressive, by the numbers, as he allowed two runs and walked three in three innings of work. It should of course be noted that we shouldn’t expect him to be in mid-season form, that he was facing a pretty good Canadian line up (that included guys like Justin Morneau, Jason Bay, Russell Martin, and Joey Votto — who crushed a homer off Jake), and that he also struck out four batters in those three innings and allowed only two hits.

Seriously, I don’t think I’ve talked that long about three innings of work on the history of this blog. It obviously has little meaning, from a quantitative perspective. But I figured that since the game was played in an MLB park, I’d take a quick look at Peavy’s PITCHf/x data, and see what comes out. First up is the standard velocity graph:

Peavy’s average fastball velocity was 92.6. He cracked 94 three times, and didn’t throw one below 90. Here’s the old movement graph:

The top left group are fastballs. Far left: changeups. And to the right are his sliders, with a pretty wide variation of movement, both vertical or horizontal. If I’m misinterpreting something here, it wouldn’t be the first time …

Here’s Peavy’s PITCHf/x card from last season, for comparison.