by Daniel Gettinger

Heath Bell is a very good reliever.  Last season he threw nearly 70 innings and struck out 79 batters.  His ERA of 2.71 was not a function of Petco Park.  His 2.42 FIP, 3.02 xFIP, and 2.25 tERA are all evidence that Bell was not just lucky last season.  This season, he projects to be just as good.

That said, the San Diego Padres should still trade Heath Bell.  As good as he is, Bell is a reliever.  Relievers do not add much value relative to full time position players and starters.

According to Fangraphs WAR, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Jonathan Broxton was the most valuable reliever in the major leagues last season.  He accumulated 2.9 WAR.  In 2008, Mariano Rivera was the league’s most valuable reliever.  His WAR: 3.1.

To put this into perspective, 49 starters had a higher WAR than Broxton in 2009.  Zach Greinke, the major league leader in WAR for pitchers, was at 9.4 — over three times Broxton’s WAR in 2009.  As for position players, 76 players were more valuable than Jonathan Broxton in 2009.  And this is in comparison to the most valuable reliever in baseball.

That said, a high quality reliever can be very useful for a good team that plays in a lot of high leverage situations.  Typically when I refer to a high leverage situation, I am talking about an important moment in a particular game.  In this case however, I am referring to situations that can impact whether or not a team will make the playoffs.

For teams on the playoff bubble, winning close games is immensely important.  Just a game or two can be the difference between a playoff birth and a shot at the world series, and a disappointing season.  The value of high quality relievers to this type of team almost certainly exceeds the baseline WAR of that player.

The Padres are not such a team.  Like it or not, the Padres are not yet ready to compete for a playoff spot. Sure the team has a few nice pieces, but it is at least two years away from being truly competitive.

In itself, not being competitive this year (or even next year) is not good enough reason to justify trading Heath Bell.  The real issue is that Bell’s age and contract situation does not make him a great fit for the team two or three years down the road.

Bell is 32 years old.  His fastball was 3 MPH slower in 2009 than in 2007, and his slider was 4 MPH slower than in 2007.  As Bell continues to age, he is likely to continue to lose velocity.  He may still be an effective pitcher, but he is unlikely to be as effective.

Meanwhile, as Bell continues to age, his salary is likely to increase.  According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts Bell currently has a touch over four years of service time.  This season, his second eligible for arbitration, he agreed to a $4MM contract.  He will be eligible for arbitration once again following the 2010 season, and then eligible for free agency following the 2011 season.

Closers are well compensated by both the arbitration and free agent process.  Teams still seem willing to pay a premium for saves, and arbiters seem just as willing to provide large rewards for proven closers.  Typically, a player is expected to earn approximately 80% of their free agent value in their final year of arbitration. Although I don’t have the stats to back it up, I would guess that closers receive even greater percentage.

Essentially, Heath Bell is only cheap for the Padres through this season.  In 2011, he will get paid between 80% and 100% of his full value, and after that, he becomes a free agent.  Because the Padres are not expected to compete this season (and possibly not next), Bell does not provide as much value to the Padres as he would a better team.

Meanwhile, the Padres do have a number of possible replacements for Bell.  Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson were both excellent last season, each striking out over ten batters per nine innings.  Promising arms like Joe Thatcher, Adam Russel, and Ryan Webb may step up and prove to be late inning relievers as well.  Replacing Bell’s production is not a huge concern.

Because the Padres are not expected to be good while Bell is both good and cheap, trading him makes a lot of sense.  This is especially true because losing Bell will not be as damaging from an on-field perspective as most fans believe.  The Padres do not necessarily need to trade Heath Bell today.  The team should trade him at the moment they believe they can get the greatest return (taking into account possible fan backlash and decreased ticket revenue).  But trading Bell this season is something that should be done.

by Daniel Gettinger

Question of the week: Spring Training has barely begun, and already the Adrian Gonzalez trade rumors are in full swing. What are the odds that Gonzalez makes it through the entire 2010 season as a member of the Padres?

My response:

The San Diego Padres are very likely to trade Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a good player, paid like a mediocre player, and not at all overrated. Which is exactly why the Padres should trade him. As he is in the prime of his career, and his contract only runs through 2011, Gonzalez provides optimal value to a team built to compete over the next two seasons. The Padres are not such a team. They are most likely to compete from 2011-20??. Gonzalez will fetch a package of good, young players. Trading him will greatly accelerate the rebuilding process.

by Daniel Gettinger

There are some rumblings that the Padres are talking with Coco Crisp about a one-year deal worth between $3MM and $4MM.

This just makes too much sense.  Crisp is a decent player, appears to want to play for the Padres, would come cheap and be signed for only one year, and significantly upgrades the Padres’ outfield.

Last year Crisp missed the bulk of the season with a torn Labrum.  However, in just 49 games he amassed a WAR of 1.2.  Consistent with his career numbers, Crisp was about average offensively, but played good defense at a premium position (CF).

Although it is always difficult to project how a player will return from injury, there are no indications that Crisp will have any serious issues.  Recovery from Labrum surgery typically takes between 4 and 6 months. Crisp had his surgery in June, so there is no reason to think he will not be at full strength come opening day.

Bill James forecasts Crisp to be a little above average with the bat.  CHONE and Fangraph’s fans projections think Crisp will be a little below average.  His fielding, which with the exception of a bizarrely poor 2008 season has always been exceptional, should at least be above average.

Jeff Zimmerman, using UZR and CHONE projections, projects Crisp to be a 1.5 WAR player in 2010.  The fans have Crisp at 2.2 WAR, and James seems to have Crisp somewhere around 2.5 WAR.

Lets project Crisp at 2.0 WAR, with a minimal level of play of 1.0 WAR.

Using a $4.4MM per win conversion, Crisp appears to be worth no less than $4.4MM.  In expectation, he is worth $8.8MM.  Given the rumored price-tag of $3MM-$4MM, Crisp will almost certainly provide surplus value to the club.

His signing also addresses a need for the Padres.  Neither Tony Gwynn Jr. nor Will Venable are projected to hit or field as well as Crisp in 2010.  Crisp provides a bit of an upgrade over either of the current two CF options.

A Crisp signing also has the added benefit of providing the Padres with an answer for filling the outfield holes that will open when they trade Adrian Gonzalez and/or Kevin Kouzmanoff.  Gwynn or Venable can slide over to RF where they will team with Crisp to form a very solid defensive outfield.  The fourth outfielder still stands to play a significant amount.

Given that at the very least Kouzmanoff or Adrian will be traded, the Padres do not have much outfield depth for 2010.  Signing Crisp addresses that need, but also provides the club with a very solid player who will almost certainly provide value in excess of his salary.  A one-year deal at such a low price-point is nearly risk free, and is exactly the type of signing a team in transition, like the Padres, should be making.

by Daniel Gettinger

Kevin Kouzmanoff trade rumors have dominated the Padres related rumors coming out of the winter meetings.  Much of the chatter has been centered around a possible Giants deal, and a potential Twins deal.

Jason Stark reported that the Padres offered Kouzmanoff to the Giants for outfielder Fred Lewis and second base/utility guy Kevin Frandsen.  Stark also reported that the Padres have requested pitcher Glen Perkins and some second player in return for Kouz.

Neither deal strikes me as something the Padres should seriously consider.

Kevin Kouzmanoff has been an extremely consistent (at least year-by-year) player for the Padres the past three seaons, compiling WARs of 2.6, 2.7, and 2.7 respectively.  He is essentially a league average third baseman.  This year, following three seasons in which he got paid the minimum salary, he is eligible for arbitration, and should earn something around $5M, which assuming he will continue to play like he always has, would result in an expected surplus value of about $7M.

Fred Lewis is a speedy outfielder with little power, but an above average glove at a corner position.  He has not played much in center, but is probably between average and a bit below average there.

In 2008, Lewis had a decent 2.3 WAR season, but last year (albeit with less at bats) only posted 0.9 WAR. Lewis turned 29 today, so he cannot be described as a youngster.  That 2008 season may have been a career-year for him.  Lets split the difference between his 2008 and 2009 season and call him a 1.6 WAR player going forward.

Frandsen is pretty terrible.  He has no power, and lacks the on-base skills to make up for it.  He can play a lot of positions, but there is not sufficient evidence to claim that he is a great fielder.  Frandsen is essentially a replacement level utility player.  Lets be generous and say he can put up 0.5 WAR in 2010.

Combined, Lewis and Frandsen equate to an expected 2.1 WAR, trailing Kouzmanoff’s 2.6 WAR.  Their advantage over Kouzmanoff is they will only get paid around $1M between them this year, and are under team control for a few more seasons.  Combined, if you accept the assumptions I have already laid out, they will provide around $8.5M in excess value in 2010, which exceeds Kouzmanoff’s expected surplus value of $7M.

Of course, they take up two roster spots, while Kouz only takes up one, which more than cancels out the $1.5M difference in surplus value.  In addition, neither player is very good; certainly not as good as Kouzmanoff.  Neither Lewis nor Frandsen are players the team can realistically build around, making their acquisition somewhat pointless.

The proposed Twins trade makes a bit more sense, in that it suggests the Padres would be acquiring a starting pitcher.  Again though, the issue is that the player in question-Glen Perkins-is not good.

Perkins has been a 1 WAR player the past two seasons, and does not project to improve much.  He has decent control, but strikes almost nobody out (only about 4.4 K/9).  He is no better (and quite possibly worse) than guys like Clayton Richard, Tim Stauffer, and Sean Gallagher.

Unless the mystery “second man” in the deal is someone significant, this trade makes less sense than the Giants deal.

The Padres need to trade Kevin Kouzmanoff.  It is silly to have Chase Headley masquerade as a corner-outfielder, when he is clearly a third baseman.  But, taking back a bag of garbage just to make room for him at third does nothing to improve the team.

That said a package of Lewis and a mid-level prospect or two (the type of players who have a chance of playing at a Kouzmanoff level in a few years) might be enough to get a deal done.

by Ben Davey

Obviously I am not talking about money, and yes I know that it is the middle of October not mid-July; but even with all that aside reports still persist about the Boston Red Sox trying to go after Adrian. But the biggest question is can the Red Sox offer enough to the Padres to make trading AGon worth their while.

In July rumors circled that the Padres were looking for a 4-1, 5-1 deal in exchange for Adrian. Jon Heyman of SI.com reported hours before the trade deadline (via twitter) that the Padres were seeking Clay Buccholz, Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson, Ryan Westmoreland, and Lars Anderson. Of course one of the main reasons this deal did not get done is because of Boston’s hesitation to give up Clay. But without the addition of Clay or Lester do they have enough to throw at the Padres to make it worth giving up our cornerstone player?

Looking at the other players offered, Masterson is not even with the Red Sox anymore (part of the Cliff Lee trade), Lowrie hasn’t proven to be a MLB starter (even though he is still young and has some potential), Anderson was named one of the most disappointing prospects of the year by BA, and even then he is a 1B which the Padres do not need with Kyle Blanks taking over the position if AGon is traded. Westmoreland is an interesting prospect but was also in the NYPenn league (similar to Eugene) this year and is a ways away.

So, so much for that deal. IFFF, and that is a big IF, the Red Sox want to get Adrian from the Padres, they would probably have to give up a majority of their once #1 ranked minor league system. Now looking at it, not only would the Red Sox have to give up Buccholz but they would probably have to give up Tazawa, Reddick, and Westmoreland, and even then I wouldnt be sure the Padres would be willing to give him up.

As a Padre fan are the names listed above enough to sway you away from AGon? Is there anything that Boston would/could reasonably offer to get Adrian? Personally, unless they want to offer us Lester and 2 mid level prospects I say pass. With all that being said, why are we still hearing Adrian to the Red Sox rumors? If anyone is traded this offseason it is probably Bell and or Kouz/Headley. IF Adrian is traded it would have to be a team like Tampa, Atlanta, Texas or Cleveland, who have the prospects to make it worth the Padres time. I’m not suggesting that they do try and trade Adrian, but rather they would have to look at a team that has more to offer then one really good pitcher.

by Daniel Gettinger

Here we go again.  In the offseason, rumors had Peavy first going to Atlanta, and then the Cubs.  Now Tom Krasovic is reporting the White Sox are interested in Peavy.  Supposedly trade talks have progressed to the point that “Peavy met with Padres manager Bud Black late last night to discuss a trade overture from the Sox.”

I don’t really want to comment on this story.  Not because I doubt the authenticity of it, but because there is really no point.  Peavy will either get traded (and accept a trade), or not.  If a trade does occur, we will then know exactly who the Padres are getting back.  One thing to keep in mind though: if the Padres are able to trade for some pitching, they may be more likely to go for a hitter with the third pick in the upcoming draft.  Here are some links to players I think the Padres might get back in a trade (note: I am not suggesting the team will receive all of these players, just a combination of one or more of them)…

• Aaron Poreda (P-AA)
• Gavin Floyd (P-MLB)
• Tyler Flowers (C-AA)
• Clayton Richard (P-MLB)
• Chris Getz (2B-AAA)

by Mike Rogers

UPDATE: Found this article that is suggesting that Matt Bush was not DFA’d for the sake of Cliff Floyd’s spot on the 40-man roster.

But several hours later, Padres CEO Sandy Alderson issued a statement declaring that the team was investigating a recent incident involving Bush, who received a club-record $3.15 million signing bonus in 2004.

“The Padres have learned of a possible off-field incident earlier this week involving Matt Bush,” Alderson said in the statement. “We are still gathering information about this incident and will have no further comment at this time.”

According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, El Cajon police are investigating allegations that Bush was involved in a drunken assault Wedneday with members of the Granite Hills High boys lacrosse team.

Neither Alderson nor Towers responded to calls seeking further comment.

It’s not the first time Bush has been involved in off-the-field incidents. Fifteen days after he was drafted, the then-18-year-old Bush was charged with trespassing at a Peoria, Ariz., bar and was suspended by the team. He was also involved in a May 2005 incident for underage drinking, according to the San Diego County Sheriff Department’s Web site

This is very unfortunate news and I certainly hope that if this speculation does come to fruition, that anyone involved in this alleged incident is okay. But it most certainly does spell the end for Bush in the Padres system, as Kevin Towers said flatly earlier.

“The Matt Bush era is probably over,” Towers said. “If we’re not able to work out a trade, we’ll release him at the point in time. … It didn’t work out.”

San Diego has signed Cliff Floyd to be a pinch-hitter, DH for when interleague play rolls around, and possibly add some punch off the bench against right-handed pitching. Oh yeah, and for his great menturing and leadership abilities!

I did the math earlier, and if you assume about -10 runs defensively, over around 300 PA’s, I get in the neighborhood of 0.75 Wins Above Replacement when all is said and done. This is confirmed by Sean Smith, as his expanded CHONE Projection page for Floyd has him at -1 per 150 games in batting runs. If you assume he’s an average defender (he’s not) he’s about 1.1 WAR. His defense has been in the neighborhood of -5 to -7 runs recently, but with his constantly weak knees, Petco, and just getting another year older, he’s probably going to be even a little worse than that.  In my quick and dirty method I had him at about -5.5 runs defensively over the course of 80 games (guesstimation on my part). Using that Chone player page, I’m comfortable pegging in Floyd at -7 runs defensively which puts his WAR at 0.80 — really close to my 0.75 I got earlier. That, on the open market and for 1-year, is about $3.5 million, but the Pads get it for less than $1 mil according to Jayson Stark. So, for the cost involved, you can’t really quibble with the signing.

To make room for Floyd, San Diego has apparently designated Matt Bush, the 2004 No. 1 overall draft pick, for assignment. Without looking it up, I believe that Bush was taken first overall due more to signability, as there were pretty much no scenarios in which the Pads would’ve signed Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, or maybe even a Phil Humber in that 04 draft.

Of course, as most Pads fans know, Matt Bush was a local kid and a shortstop out of high school. And then fell flat on his face in the minors, never surpassing High-A Lake Elsinore where he posted a .204/.310/.276 line in 116 plate appearances in 2007. He was converted to the mound but was injured. Still, a very good arm (in the 90’s if I recall correctly), I’d like to see San Diego at least get something back in return. At this point, all odds are against Bush ever making it to something like Triple-A as a pitcher, but it would be a shame to see a franchise designate the first overall draft pick for assignment less than 5 years after drafting him. But, the most likely scenario is that Bush is not dealt and successfully passes through waivers.

This is what you get when you read this blog. It’s the best I have to offer.

I can report — with 96% confidence – that there will be a Kevin Kouzmanoff interview on espn sometime in the next 3 weeks.

Source: The interviewer himself, Jonah Keri (comment 12)

edit: Keri’s interviews are awesome, btw. Here’s one with David Forst, A’s assistant GM.

The more I look at the various projections and analysis out there, the more I think the back end of the rotation is one area where the Padres can really improve. If you could count on Prior and Wolf for 300 innings, it wouldn’t really be so bad. I don’t think they’re a problem on a per inning basis. It’s just that there’s a good chance they don’t combine for 200 innings and probably a decent chance they end up somewhere around 150. That leaves a good 250 innings or so for other pitchers to fill. The in-house candidates are guys like Germano, Hensley, Ledezma, LeBlanc (?), and probably a few others. There are some intriguing options, but I thought we’d take a look at some outside possibilities as well.

Jason Marquis, Cubs, 29, makes ~16m over next 2 years

Marquis is not really the type of pitcher I would normally bring up, but he’s in a little war of words with the Cubbies so he may be acquired on the cheap (as if $16 million isn’t cheap enough for his services). According to Kalk’s algorithm, he comes with 91 mile an hour heat and offers the slider and change as secondary pitches. The projections have him pegged as a mid-to-high 4 era, 185 inning guy. PECOTA, by the way, is a little more pessimistic (150 innings, 5.14 era) IMO, his current contract porbably overvalues him, but I don’t think it’s a downright terrible deal. Perhaps, if things get bad enough with, the Cubs would add in a few million or a mid-level prospect.

Verdict (or … my opinion, continued): Unless the Cubs want to pay for some of his contract or add in a prospect or two, I don’t think the Padres would go this route. He adds innings, which are important, but they very likely won’t be high (or even “mid level”) quality innings. For the minimum, that may be alright. For $16 million, there have to be better options.

Kyle Lohse, free agent, 29

Lohse is pretty similar to Marquis both in the numbers and stuff department. He was talked about quite a bit over at Ducksnorts the other day. I think he’s a decent option, if he’ll sign a cheaper deal at this point. If he’s still looking for $8 million a year for a couple or something in that range, then no thanks.

Verdict: If the price is similar to Marquis, I’d pass. 1 year, $3 million? Hello, new number 5 starter.

Dave Bush, Brewers, 28, arb. eligible 08-2010

Bush is always a guy I’ve liked, numbers-wise (though I actually saw him get beat up in Fenway in 05. He must have thrown 60 pitches in the first 2 innings. Okay, 57). I’m not sure if his stuff is great, but he seems to have a pretty good idea of what to do with it. Unlike Marquis and Lohse, I think Bush is a guy you can actually rely on for a couple of years (on the cheap, might I add).

Verdict: There are no Dave Bush trade rumors out there that I know of. He’s just a guy I figured I’d mention. Anyway, the question with him, if the Brewers were willing to deal him, is what kind of prospect would you give up? An upper level guy like Hunter, LeBlanc, Latos, etc? Maybe two guys? I don’t know. I doubt that he would come that cheap with 3 years left on his contract. Is someone like Bush worth it in terms of adding extra wins this year beyond what the in-house pitchers would provide (as well as in the next 3 years, of course)?

There are a ton of other candidates out there. Talk about those guys, these guys, our guys, and anything back of the rotation here (or anything at all, really). Basically, bail me out!

I’m posting at a ridiculous rate (that will inevitably slow down), but what’s one more post?

Chris Kline of Baseball America:

According to several sources, the Padres are planning on moving up to Tampa Bay’s No. 1 spot to take Indians outfielder Brian Barton.

Just from reading that, Barton seems like an entertaining enough kid. Anyway, he’s supposedly a fine defensive player who can handle center. He did have surgery in the off season on a knee he injured in the 2006. From the 07 handbook BA (they ranked him 5th in their system, by the way):

Plus speed that plays well in center
Intelligent, mentally tough
“Barton’s speed/power combination makes him a potentially elite talent despite his age”

Check out his numbers: http://firstinning.com/players/Brian-Barton-a/

The age is certainly a factor and not one really in his favor. He’s a ground ball machine (up around 50% or so) and comes with a high BABiP — that’s something that may be tough to maintain, but it certainly has some degree of skill involved. His ground ball/speed game may help him to keep it high (it’s been up around .400). He’s also a guy who may not be as severely hurt by spacious Petco. His offense looks acceptable enough, especially if he comes with good defense in center.

It’s a gamble, but the only major cost (besides what’s given up in the trade) is a roster spot. If they think he’s ready to contribute, at least marginally, to the big league club, then I think it’s a fine deal. He could turn in to a starter by next year depending, of course, on how things shake out (who knows, maybe he’ll even start this year, although I doubt it). More on this tomorrow as the draft is held and it becomes official.