Since replacing injured pitcher Chris Young in the starting rotation, Wade LeBlanc has been lights out for the San Diego Padres.  In 23 innings he has a 1.16 ERA, a 2.15 FIP, and a 3.61 xFIP.  LeBlanc is unlikely to sustain such excellence for the entire season, but based on his performance thus far, there is no reason to think he cannot be a league average pitcher going forward.

LeBlanc’s best pitch is his change-up.  He throws it 25 percent of the time, and according to Fangraphs, it has been 5.73 runs above average per 100 pitches so far in 2010.  LeBlanc throws his change-up at 77 mph, 10 mph slower than his fastball.

Because his change-up is so solid, I wanted to see how it compared to some of the major league’s best change-ups according to pitch f/x.

I sorted by the 2009 leaders in change-up runs above average (total, not per-100), and selected the top three lefties for comparison.  The players with the best lefty change-ups in 2009 were: CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels, and Mark Buehrle.

The following table notes how often each pitcher threw his change-up, as well as some speed statistics:

The speed difference between LeBlanc’s fastball and change-up is a bit less than Sabathia, but compares favorably with Hamels and Buehrle.

This table highlights each pitcher’s horizontal and vertical movement on his change-up;

Sabathia gets the most horizontal movement on his change-up, but it stays up a bit more than the others’. Buehrle’s change-up has by far the most sink.  The movement on LeBlanc’s change-up is pretty similar to Hamels’.

Finally, lets take a look at the pitch flight charts.  The charts were created using data from Brooks Baseball, and are pitch flights for each pitcher’s most recent start:

There are slight differences between each of the pitcher’s change-ups, but frankly, they are pretty similar. For LeBlanc, this is a good thing.  His change-up is pretty comparable from a “stuff” perspective to Sabathia, Hamels, and Buehrle, three of the top change-up pitchers in baseball.  LeBlanc is unlikely to ever be as good as those three because there is a lot more to pitching than just having a good change-up, but it is certainly a start.

by Daniel Gettinger

Continuing my forecast series, today I look at the four San Diego Padres pitchers who have been locks for the rotation all spring…

Chris Young

by Daniel Gettinger

I continue my series of projections by looking at a few San Diego Padres bench players.  I previously projected the infielders and outfielders.

As with the infielders and outfielders, I am not attempting to forecast every player who might possibly play for the Padres in 2010.  Instead, I am focusing on the guys who look likely to get the bulk of the playing time.  The one noticeable omission is Aaron Cunningham.  I just have no idea how much he is going to play.

On to the projections…

Matt Stairs

The Padres signed Stairs this off-season.  He was a low-risk signing, and should provide some nice left-handed power off the bench.  There are reports that Stairs is in the best shape of his life.  I am sure he is. But that does not mean we should expect a ridiculously quality season from him.  Most 42 year olds continue to decline, not break out.  Stairs was not a bad signing, and he fills a need for the Padres.  But a lack of playing time and defensive value limits his upside.

Oscar Salazar

I like Salazar.  He has decent power and average on base skills.  It might take Buddy Black a while to recognize it, but Salazar is the best pinch-hit option available to him.

Jerry Hairston

Hairston’s bad is bad, but he derives value from being able to play a lot of positions reasonably well. Because of his versatility, Hairston should get ample playing time in 2010.

Yorvit Torrealba

Torrealba is a backup catcher.  There’s really nothing more to add.

Next: A Look at the top four starting pitchers

by Daniel Gettinger

Yesterday I presented my forecasts for the San Diego Padres’ projected starting infield.  Today, I continue the series with a look at the four outfielders expected to receive the bulk of the playing time…

Kyle Blanks:

More so than my other projections, I nudged Blanks’s numbers upwards from what the projection systems forecast.  The impact is not so much in the rate stats, but in the playing time, and its implications on homeruns and WAR.  My one concern about Blanks is how long his huge frame will be able to take the pounding of playing the outfield every day.  He will probably be fine this season, but I cannot help but think the team is taking a risk every time it sends him out there.  Eventually he needs to move to first base. Hopefully that move occurs sometime this season.

Scott Hairston

My projected WAR for Hairston actually came out lower than I thought it would.  I keep forgetting that he is injury prone and has a large platoon split, thus limiting his playing time, and driving down his value. That said, I like Hairston.  He has some pop and can play all of the outfield positions fairly well.  Hopefully he is able to stay healthy this season, and return to the form he exhibited with the Padres prior to his trade to the Oakland Athletics.

Will Venable

A lot of Padres fans like Venable more than I do.  The IVIE projections at Ducksnorts have Venable getting on base at a 0.342 clip, while slugging 0.437.  I hope I am wrong, but I just don’t see it.  Venable is not a guy I see figuring into the Padres long-term plans, but he should do a non-embarrassing job this season.

Anthony Gwynn

I talked about Gwynn at the end of my HotStove.com chat.  I mentioned Gwynn’s bat is not good, but his glove seems to be.  He has a bit of speed, and if he can get on-base, and field his position well, he can be a solid fourth or fifth outfielder in the major leagues.  A truly competitive team probably would not have Gwynn slated for so many plate appearances, but the Padres could do worse.  My projection for Gwynn echoes my intuition.  I see Gwynn being well below average offensively, but still adding value to the team.

Up next: Offensive Bench

by Daniel Gettinger

With the season looming, I feel it is time for me to share my 2010 projections for the San Diego Padres.

The projections, which will be shared over the next two weeks, are heavily based on a combination of the projection systems available on Fangraphs.  I do not attempt to forecast the impact of trades.  So Adrian Gonzalez’s projection is based on him spending the entire season in San Diego.  Likewise, Kyle Blanks will be projected to spend most of his time in the outfield, rather than at first base.

I will kick off the series with my predictions for the projected starting infield…

Catcher-Nick Hundley

Hundley is not a good player.  Most of his value is tied to his position.  That said, although not much of an asset, Hundley does have a bit more power than the typical catcher.  Assuming he is somewhere around average defensively, Hundley will not kill the team in 2010.

First Base-Adrian Gonzalez

Some Padres fans are going to take exception with this projection.  Last year Gonzalez hit 40 homeruns, and had a wOBA of 0.402.  He was worth nearly 6.5 wins above replacement.  But 2009 was Gonzalez’s best season of his career.  His previous best, 2006, was only a 3.9 WAR season.  Gonzalez may very well produce like he did in 2009, but forecasting such a season would be silly considering what we know about regression.  That said a season with a WAR over 4.0 is still very good.

Second Base-David Eckstein

My lack of confidence in Eckstein is well documented.  His bat is terrible, and his fielding is, at best, average.  I have a hunch the Padres may end up releasing him mid-season.  Eckstein is that bad.

Shortstop-Everth Cabrera

In my HotStove.com chat, I talked a bit about Everth Cabrera.  He is a player that really excites me, but also really scares me.  He struggled in the second half of last season, but is overall numbers were perfectly fine, especially considering he made the direct jump from A-ball to the major leagues.  My projection for Cabrera is one with a lot of variance built in.  He might record a solid 2.5 WAR season, or he might perform close to replacement level.  After 2010, we should have a better idea of how good Cabrera really is.

Third Base-Chase Headley

I like Chase Headley.  He has never had a problem getting on base.  If he adds a bit more power, and fields his position at an average rate, Headley will be an incredibly solid player.  Moving Headley out of the outfield, and back to his natural position was important.  Now, in his third major league season, Headley needs to perform.

Up Next: Starting Outfield

by Daniel Gettinger

Yesterday I received a text from a friend who wrote: “Inexcusable if the Pads non-tender Correia.”

That was the first time I had heard any discussion about non-tendering Correia, and frankly, I was a bit surprised.  However, my immediate reaction was not one of anger, but instead, as I usually do, I tried to defend the possible action.

I wrote back: “Well…some guys are getting more in arbitration now than on the market, so it might make sense…[plus] its Correia we’re talking about-at best he’s an average pitcher.”

That was yesterday.  Today, after further reflection, I see no reason for the Padres to not tender Kevin Correia a contract.

The team has four options: go to arbitration with Correia, agree to a contract with Correia, trade Correia, or let him leave for nothing.  Because Correia is a good bet to provide at least some value in excess of his contract in 2010, Correia is indeed tradeable, and the “let him leave for nothing” option is strictly dominated.

Last season, Correia threw nearly 200 innings, and had a 3.91 ERA and a 3.81 FIP.  Fangraphs valued him at 2.4 wins above replacement, and nearly $11M.  With incentives, Correia made about $1M.  No matter how you break it down, Correia was a valuable pitcher.

The problem of course is that Correia had never before been such a valuable pitcher, and expecting the same type of production is probably a bit optimistic…or is it?

Bill James projects a 4.23 ERA in 217 innings for Correia.   Zips has Correia pegged for a 3.93 ERA in 171 innings.  Basically, both Zips and James project Correia to be a bit above league average, just like last season.  I personally see Correia as no better than an average pitcher, but that is still very valuable, especially to a team like the Padres that does not currently have many (if any) pitchers projected to be much better than average.  Lets say, just for the sake of argument, that Correia will be a 2 WAR pitcher in 2010, valuing him around $9M.

Reports are Correia wants to be paid between $3M and $4M.  Meanwhile, the Padres want to pay him something closer to $2M.  In either case, Correia’s expected production exceeds his salary.  Not tendering Correia a contract makes no sense.  If the team cannot afford the $3M or $4M it might take to employ Correia, they should trade him to a team that can.

Doing so will allow the team to get something, rather than nothing for Correia.  In fact, they could probably get something decent.  The argument that the Padres would have no leverage in trade negotiations is irrelevant.  Assuming there are a decent amount of teams (and there are) who could benefit from adding a league average starting pitcher to their rotation, competition between teams should allow the Padres to get a fair deal for Correia.

To sum things up: the Padres should not non-tender Kevin Correia.  He is not expected to earn more money in 2010 than he is expected to produce on the field.  The Padres would benefit from either keeping Correia, or trading him to another team.  Of course, the Padres may just be using the threat of a non-tender as a negotiating ploy, making all this excitement somewhat moot.

by Daniel Gettinger

Last week, Corey Brock pointed out Kevin Kouzmanoff has the highest “fielding percentage of any Major League third baseman (.988) and the fewest errors (3).”

Brock argued, “the number of errors and fielding percentage the Padres’ third baseman has in 2009 certainly show that he should be, at the very least, in the discussion for the holy grail of awards for fielders.”

I disagree.

Kouz’s lack of errors are great, but not making errors on balls a player gets to is only one component of defense.  The other major defensive component for a third baseman is range.  And Kouzmanoff does not have great range.  UZR feels Kouzmanoff’s range has been -1.4 runs below average.

His overall UZR of 2.3 (3.4 UZR/150), seems about right to me.  It reflects Kouz’s consistency on balls he gets to (4.1 errors runs above average), but dings him for his below average range.

Baseball Prospectus is even harsher.  Their fielding metric sees Kouzmanoff’s fielding as about 5 runs below average this season.

The problem with fielding metrics is they are not very precise.  Over long periods of time, they seem to do a pretty decent job, but even a sample of 115 games (the number of games Kouz has played this season) is not sufficient to reach any definite conclusions.

That said, in 2008, UZR saw Kouzmanoff as 2.7 runs above average.  Like this season, Kouz made few errors, but displayed only passable range in 2008.  Based on his stats this year, as well as last year, I feel comfortable stating that Kevin Kouzmanoff has been a slightly above average fielder this season and projects to play the same way the remainder of the season.

Average fielding is fine, but it is not gold glove worthy.  The N.L. gold glove winner at third base should be Ryan Zimmerman.  It is not a close call.

Due to his phenomenal range, UZR feels Zimmerman has been 16 runs above average with the glove this season.  Zimmerman’s past suggests such a positive UZR may not be a fluke.  He struggled with injuries last year, but in 2007, Zimmerman was 17.4 runs above average at third base.

No other N.L. third basemen is within 10 runs (approximately one win) of Zimmerman defensively. Pedro Feliz and Casey Blake, both of whom trail Zimmerman but lead Kouzmanoff in UZR, have been 4.7 and 4.3 runs above average defensively.

Kouzmanoff has been solid with the glove, but to even consider him for the gold glove is ludicrous considering how good Zimmerman has been.  Limiting errors is great, but getting to the ball is important as well.

by Mike Rogers

Over at Project Prospect, there’s a nice and informative scouting report on the swing of 1st year pro, James Darnell. I had a three part series that looked at the 2008 college bats the Padres took in June of 2008 and I loved everything about James Darnell’s college statistics. I’m still a big time Darnell fan and think the former South Carolina Gamecock can be, at the very least, an average right fielder in the majors (not sure he can stick at third).

The scouting report makes a very interesting swing comparison: Justin Upton. Now, Steve Carter (who is using an alias but did play college baseball), cautioned he’s not expecting near the offensive production of Upton, but that they do have similar swings. An excerpt from the conclusion:

Darnell has the tools, ability, and swing to be a very solid offensive 3rd baseman. Eighteen home runs and a .998 OPS between Low-A Fort Wayne and High-A Lake Elsinore is certainly nothing to scoff at. But, the real test for Darnell will come at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Then we will find out if he is just a polished college hitter pounding A-ball pitching, or a legitimate prospect. If he can improve his upper body pattern and make a few other refinements, he could go from a potential Casey Blake with patience type, and move toward his ceiling of a pre-2009 breakout Ryan Zimmerman with a higher on base percentage.

So, there’s some things to like. Casey Blake with patience definitely isn’t anything to scoff at and Ryan Zimmerman with better OBP is very good outcome as well. There’s a lot to like about Darnell.

Now, while you’re perusing the Project Prospect website, feel free to read my PITCHf/x look at Jake Arrieta, a Baltimore Orioles right-handed pitcher. Yeah, it’s self-promotion and I will not be ashamed of it! Why should you read about an Orioles pitching prospect? Well, because I’ll be writing these types of pieces for Project Prospect when prospects make their debuts. So, I want you to get used to the format for when I pen my piece on Mat Latos (which I already looked at his debut right here for FF) through the PITCHf/x lens.

by Daniel Gettinger

Often when writing a post, I cite a player’s season stats.  For pitchers, K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 get a lot of play around here.  Position players are typically reduced to impossible to pronounce abbreviations such as OPS, OBP, and UZR.*  That said, at any given moment, I only have a vague notion of how well a player has been playing.  Without looking it up, I could not tell you what Chase Headley’s OBP is.  Likewise, I have no idea what Chad Gaudin’s ERA is.  I do not sit around memorizing the stat lines of every Padre player, and frankly, I don’t really care to.

*As much as I love it for being a useful tool in player valuation, I sometimes feel the best part about wOBA is that the vowel in the acronym rests in a linguistically elegant position, giving it a word-like pronunciation.

Because I do not keep close tabs on the season stats of every Padre, I find it productive to occasionally “re-calibrate” by browsing through the Padres page on Fangraphs (or even ESPN).  Every time I do so, I learn something new.  For example, a few days ago I was reminded that the Padres briefly employed Duaner Sanchez, and that he was an absolute disaster.  Today, I stumbled across the stats of another disaster: Eliezer Alfonzo.

This season, Alfonzo has an OBP of 0.211 and a SLG % of 0.274.  He has a BB rate of 2.8%, and a total of 5 extra base hits in 109 plate appearances.

Let me put this in perspective for you.  His 0.214 wOBA is second worst in the major leagues amongst players with at least 100 PA.  Alfonzo’s 0.485 OPS only slightly exceeds Albert Pujol’s 0.446 OBP. Think about that for a moment.

Look, I recognize that Alfonzo’s stats do not reflect his true talent; that is, going forward, we expect Alfonzo to hit better.  I also realize that Alfonzo was not exactly the Padres first choice catcher.  The team picked him up just so it would have a body to fill in in case Nick Hundley or Henry Blanco got injured.  But that does not make Alfonzo’s play this season any less comical.

There is not a single type of pitch he has been able to hit.  Per 100 pitches, Alfonzo is -2.11 runs below average against fastballs, -3.83 against sliders, -2.97 against curve balls, -3.32 against change-ups, and -4.92 against splitters.  His specialty, if you can call it that, has been hitting the cutter, where he is only 0.23 runs below average per 100 pitches.

To add insult to injury, Alfonzo appears to be terrible on the base paths.  His “speed score” of 0.7 this season is third worst amongst catchers with at least 100 plate appearances.  Bengie Molina is infamous for his lead filled feat, but even he has huffed and puffed his way to a 1.4 speed score.

Alfonzo’s atrocious play does not actually bother me.  Very few people think he is a good player, and he is almost certainly not in the Padres long-term plans.  I just get a kick out of how bad he has been this season.  In an odd sense, his awfulness is sort of fun.  At least in my convoluted mind.

Just a little shameless self-promotion from me today (and I normally don’t do this, but…). I joined the writing team over at Beyond the Boxscore, and my first article went up today evaluating the Jake Peavy trade last Friday.

I’d really like it if everyone that reads this would go there and read the entire thing, since it’ll please Padres fans to read the outcome. Thanks.