by Daniel Gettinger

I recently finished a series where I projected the stat lines for most of the Padres players expected to contribute in a meaningful way this season.  Some of those players will outperform my projection, and others will under-perform.  At this point though it is difficult to guess exactly which players will fall on which side. If I had a hunch, I would have changed the projections.

That said, at an aggregate level, I believe my projections can give us a good idea of the upper bound of how many games the San Diego Padres can win in 2010.

I projected the position players to total 17.7 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and pitchers to accumulate 20.0 WAR.  A team of just replacement players is expected to win about 47 games.  Therefore, if we assume everybody I did not project plays at replacement level (on average), the Padres would be expected to win about 85 games.

Unfortunately, I do not believe the Padres will win 85 games in 2010.  I feel my projections may have been a bit optimistic.  Because there is so much variance in player forecasts, I tended to round up rather than down. I am a fan after all.

At the individual level, those rounding errors do not make much difference.  But over 25 players a third of a WAR here, and a half WAR there certainly do add up.  In addition, this analysis does not account for possible Heath Bell and Adrian Gonzalez trades–moves that are very unlikely to make the team better this season.

The over/under on Padres wins as given by Vegas sports books has the team around 70 wins.  Personally, I would take the over.  I see the team winning between 75 and 80 games.  Because I am a Padres fan, and my projections peg the Padres for 85 wins, I’ll take the upper end of the range and go with 80 Padres wins in 2010. Not bad for a team in transition.

by Daniel Gettinger

Today I wrap up my series of forecasts for the 2010 San Diego Padres by looking at the bullpen.  Because bullpen production and usage is so variable, I am only providing forecasts for four of the Padres top bullpen arms…

Heath Bell

I recently advocated trading Heath Bell.  But my reasoning had nothing to do with his projected production this year.  Bell is a top reliever, and should continue to be good in 2010.

Mike Adams

Adams has been exceptional when healthy.  His problem has been staying healthy.  There is a decent chance that Adams exceeds my projection for him, but relievers are tough to predict, so a decent amount of regression needs to be built into any such forecast.

Luke Gregerson

Gregerson was fantastic last season, posting a FIP of 2.5 in 75 innings.  I see him continuing to have success.  His projection is almost identical to Adams’, but over more innings.

Joe Thatcher

Thatcher is not really as good overall as Adams and Gregerson, but will post similar numbers because he is left handed.  Thatcher dominated lefty batters last season, and should be used mostly against lefties in 2010.  Unlike a true LOOGY, Thatcher can get righties out as well, so he can pitch full innings if need be.

Recap:

The Padres 2010 bullpen will be strong.  Heath Bell is fantastic.  Adams, Gregerson, and Thatcher are good as well.  Even if Bell is traded, the Padres bullpen should still be a strength of the team as there are enough good arms that Bell’s loss should be mitigated.

by Daniel Gettinger

Yesterday I shared my projections for Chris Young, Kevin Correia, Jon Garland, and Clayton Richard.  Today I take a look at Mat Latos, Wade LeBlanc, Tim Stauffer, and Sean Gallagher…

Mat Latos

Latos is the real deal.  He is the Padres best pitcher.  His innings will be limited to ensure he is not unnecessarily overworked, but yeah, the guy is good.

Wade LeBlanc

IP	K	BB	HR	ERA	FIP	WAR
80	56	28	12	4.60	4.80	1.0

I don’t love LeBlanc.  He had a nice Spring, but I don’t see his stuff playing too well as a major league starter. He has a good changeup, but his “fastball” is an oxymoron, and he walks too many batters for my liking.

Tim Stauffer

IP	K	BB	HR	ERA	FIP	WAR
80	56	30	10	4.50	4.55	1.3

Because he is out of options, Stauffer may be traded.  Assuming he remains a Padre, I see him posting pretty average numbers.  There’s nothing too exciting about him.

Sean Gallagher

IP	K	BB	HR	ERA	FIP	WAR
80	65	39	8	4.30	4.34	1.4

Gallagher is a pitcher I really like.  He misses bats and gives up very few homeruns.  His biggest problem is control.  He walks too many batters.  If he can cut down on the walks, Gallagher can be a fantastic pitcher.  I have a feeling he will be my “Chad Gaudin” this year — the guy that I think is pretty good, but nobody else seems to like.  To relive my “Chad crush” take a look at this post from last season and follow the links to more of my Chad analysis.

Recap:

Latos is great and should receive close to 150 innings.  The other guys all have issues.  Gallagher is my favorite of the three, but most people prefer LeBlanc or Stauffer.  Assuming one is not traded, all of the pitchers stand to pitch a decent chunk of innings this season.  I have LeBlanc, Stauffer, and Gallagher all slated for 80 IP.  In reality the split will not be that even, but trying to be more precise would be nothing more than a guess.

Up next: The final installment-Relievers

by Daniel Gettinger

If you have not already done so (and I doubt that you have since only 14 people have so far), I encourage you to head over to The Book Blog and fill out Tango’s “Community Forecast” for the Padres.  All you have to do is select the number of games/innings pitched you believe a number of Padres players will play in.  It takes under five minutes, and the results help in all sorts of analysis and projections.

by Daniel Gettinger

Continuing my forecast series, today I look at the four San Diego Padres pitchers who have been locks for the rotation all spring…

Chris Young

by Daniel Gettinger

I continue my series of projections by looking at a few San Diego Padres bench players.  I previously projected the infielders and outfielders.

As with the infielders and outfielders, I am not attempting to forecast every player who might possibly play for the Padres in 2010.  Instead, I am focusing on the guys who look likely to get the bulk of the playing time.  The one noticeable omission is Aaron Cunningham.  I just have no idea how much he is going to play.

On to the projections…

Matt Stairs

The Padres signed Stairs this off-season.  He was a low-risk signing, and should provide some nice left-handed power off the bench.  There are reports that Stairs is in the best shape of his life.  I am sure he is. But that does not mean we should expect a ridiculously quality season from him.  Most 42 year olds continue to decline, not break out.  Stairs was not a bad signing, and he fills a need for the Padres.  But a lack of playing time and defensive value limits his upside.

Oscar Salazar

I like Salazar.  He has decent power and average on base skills.  It might take Buddy Black a while to recognize it, but Salazar is the best pinch-hit option available to him.

Jerry Hairston

Hairston’s bad is bad, but he derives value from being able to play a lot of positions reasonably well. Because of his versatility, Hairston should get ample playing time in 2010.

Yorvit Torrealba

Torrealba is a backup catcher.  There’s really nothing more to add.

Next: A Look at the top four starting pitchers

by Daniel Gettinger

Yesterday I presented my forecasts for the San Diego Padres’ projected starting infield.  Today, I continue the series with a look at the four outfielders expected to receive the bulk of the playing time…

Kyle Blanks:

More so than my other projections, I nudged Blanks’s numbers upwards from what the projection systems forecast.  The impact is not so much in the rate stats, but in the playing time, and its implications on homeruns and WAR.  My one concern about Blanks is how long his huge frame will be able to take the pounding of playing the outfield every day.  He will probably be fine this season, but I cannot help but think the team is taking a risk every time it sends him out there.  Eventually he needs to move to first base. Hopefully that move occurs sometime this season.

Scott Hairston

My projected WAR for Hairston actually came out lower than I thought it would.  I keep forgetting that he is injury prone and has a large platoon split, thus limiting his playing time, and driving down his value. That said, I like Hairston.  He has some pop and can play all of the outfield positions fairly well.  Hopefully he is able to stay healthy this season, and return to the form he exhibited with the Padres prior to his trade to the Oakland Athletics.

Will Venable

A lot of Padres fans like Venable more than I do.  The IVIE projections at Ducksnorts have Venable getting on base at a 0.342 clip, while slugging 0.437.  I hope I am wrong, but I just don’t see it.  Venable is not a guy I see figuring into the Padres long-term plans, but he should do a non-embarrassing job this season.

Anthony Gwynn

I talked about Gwynn at the end of my HotStove.com chat.  I mentioned Gwynn’s bat is not good, but his glove seems to be.  He has a bit of speed, and if he can get on-base, and field his position well, he can be a solid fourth or fifth outfielder in the major leagues.  A truly competitive team probably would not have Gwynn slated for so many plate appearances, but the Padres could do worse.  My projection for Gwynn echoes my intuition.  I see Gwynn being well below average offensively, but still adding value to the team.

Up next: Offensive Bench

by Daniel Gettinger

With the season looming, I feel it is time for me to share my 2010 projections for the San Diego Padres.

The projections, which will be shared over the next two weeks, are heavily based on a combination of the projection systems available on Fangraphs.  I do not attempt to forecast the impact of trades.  So Adrian Gonzalez’s projection is based on him spending the entire season in San Diego.  Likewise, Kyle Blanks will be projected to spend most of his time in the outfield, rather than at first base.

I will kick off the series with my predictions for the projected starting infield…

Catcher-Nick Hundley

Hundley is not a good player.  Most of his value is tied to his position.  That said, although not much of an asset, Hundley does have a bit more power than the typical catcher.  Assuming he is somewhere around average defensively, Hundley will not kill the team in 2010.

First Base-Adrian Gonzalez

Some Padres fans are going to take exception with this projection.  Last year Gonzalez hit 40 homeruns, and had a wOBA of 0.402.  He was worth nearly 6.5 wins above replacement.  But 2009 was Gonzalez’s best season of his career.  His previous best, 2006, was only a 3.9 WAR season.  Gonzalez may very well produce like he did in 2009, but forecasting such a season would be silly considering what we know about regression.  That said a season with a WAR over 4.0 is still very good.

Second Base-David Eckstein

My lack of confidence in Eckstein is well documented.  His bat is terrible, and his fielding is, at best, average.  I have a hunch the Padres may end up releasing him mid-season.  Eckstein is that bad.

Shortstop-Everth Cabrera

In my HotStove.com chat, I talked a bit about Everth Cabrera.  He is a player that really excites me, but also really scares me.  He struggled in the second half of last season, but is overall numbers were perfectly fine, especially considering he made the direct jump from A-ball to the major leagues.  My projection for Cabrera is one with a lot of variance built in.  He might record a solid 2.5 WAR season, or he might perform close to replacement level.  After 2010, we should have a better idea of how good Cabrera really is.

Third Base-Chase Headley

I like Chase Headley.  He has never had a problem getting on base.  If he adds a bit more power, and fields his position at an average rate, Headley will be an incredibly solid player.  Moving Headley out of the outfield, and back to his natural position was important.  Now, in his third major league season, Headley needs to perform.

Up Next: Starting Outfield

by Daniel Gettinger

I was looking for something to write about, so I went over to Fangraphs–The place I always go when I am looking for something to write about.  After clicking through to the advanced stats, I sorted by wRC.  Not surprisingly, Adrian Gonzalez led the team by a good amount in that category.*  What did surprise me was the value in the BABIP column to the left of wRC: 0.280.

*In fact, Adrian had at least double the wRC of every Padre except for Chase Headley.  Still, Adrian’s 123 wRC was nearly 70 percent greater than Headley’s 72.8.

We often talk about how pitcher’s have very little control over their BABIP.  Sure, fly-ball pitchers typically sustain lower BABIPs than ground-ball pitchers, but in general, a pitcher’s BABIP is a function of luck.  That is not the case for batters.  A batter’s BABIP is a function of his balls-in-play rates.  Although there exist numerous expected BABIP estimator, one, created by Dave Studeman, estimates BABIP by: 0.245+0.52*LD%-0.16*FB%+0.11*K%.  Essentially, line-drives are good for BABIP, while fly-balls are bad.

Adrian Gonzalez’s BABIP of 0.280 was exceptionally low.  Amongst Padres with more than 250 plate appearances, only Brian Giles and Luis Rodriguez had lower BABIPs.  What makes this so surprising is that Gonzalez hit a line-drive in 21 percent of his at-bats.  Using Studeman’s BABIP estimator, we would have expected Gonzalez to have a BABIP of 0.310

Gonzalez’s BABIP was lower than expected last season, and he is unlikely to be as unlucky on balls-in-play this season.  But, that does not mean we should expect Gonzalez to be even better in 2010 than he was in 2009.  In 2009, Gonzalez had a fantastic year–maybe even a career year.  His ISO was significantly greater than his previous career best, and his walk rate rose 70 percent compared to 2008.  Some regression is still to be expected.

by Myron Logan

Here’s the video:

I don’t think the discussion is quite as bad as it is being portrayed on BTF. I mean, some valid points were made. But, yeah, overall, there was a little too much negativity towards sabermetrics from the panelists, outside of Matt Vasgersian, and a little too much faith put into the evaluations of the scouts. And nobody – again, outside of probably Vasgersian – seemed to realize that both things can (and do) coexist. It isn’t one or the other. Couple of random thoughts:

1. The intro to PECOTA was great. It was very concise, but hit on all the main points. Perfect for a mainstream audience, but detailed enough to give people an idea of what PECOTA is really  about.

2. Vasgersian, as we know from his time with the Padres, is very bright, reasonable guy. What a great hire for MLB Network.

3. The phrase “touch and feel” was said way too much. I think Barry Larkin started it, and it kind of caught on.

It is nice to see that MLB Network is at least going to discuss this stuff. Next time, maybe they will get a couple of guys more familiar with PECOTA, or sabermetrics in general, to argue on its behalf. It seems like they’d have the resources to do this, and it would make for more interesting debate, rather than simply going with three ex-ball players who share a similar opinion on the issue.

So far, though, I’ve been a big fan of MLB Network. I don’t even mind Harold Reynolds, only because he reminds me of when I used to watch Baseball Tonight every night, back in my earlier years. Good times ….