Every year MadFriars.com publishes its annual Top 20 Prospect rankings which is usually picked up by all five of the San Diego Padres’ affiliates for use on their websites and in their programs (the AZL Padres do not have a website). This year a condensed version of the article is also scheduled to run in several newspapers.

As with last year we interviewed the two authors, Denis Savage and John Conniff, who between them visit every site and interview nearly every Padres’ prospect, coach, scout, manager and front office personnel - and maybe even this year a few of the batboys.

This is part III, the final section, of our interview.  Part I can be found here, and part II here.  Thanks again to John and Denis for answering our questions!

Former 1st round picks Schmidt, Dykstra, Carrillo, and Antonelli were all ranked within 6 spots of each other in Denis’ rankings.  What are the chances that any of them live up to their former potential?  What are the chances that any of them become productive MLB players?

John: I would take Dykstra. A big part of his struggles had to do with two factors. One, because of his size and power in college he saw a steady diet of outside pitches which led him to somewhat “dive” into the ball and become vulnerable to the inside pitch. In the off-season the team really worked with him on changing many parts of his swing but an off-season injury to his wrist, always a tricky injury, really got him off to a bad start.

In August everything finally came together with a .319/.432/.505 line. Also better umpiring is going to help him to as he moves forward. I think with a healthy off-season and coming back to California he could do some damage.

Denis: I would take Schmidt first, Dykstra second, Antonelli third and Carrillo last. Wait a second – am I that predictable or if you look long enough is there a pattern everywhere?

Schmidt has been the first guy coming off Tommy John who was absolutely praised to me in all facets by the staff who handled his recovery. I don’t recall anyone being spoken about so glowingly in their recovery. That speaks volumes to me. He is working at it. When others see it, that warrants consideration.

I think Dykstra committed to changing his approach. He struggled through things along the way and didn’t revert back. Sticking with it through the tough times says a lot about his character. He is willing to suffer now, knowing it will help him in the future.

Plenty of people are not on the Antonelli wagon. I am. I don’t know why or how or when, but it is my belief that Antonelli will break out in a big way. We will laugh about it – or he may just laugh at us.

Carrillo doesn’t have what I call a killer instinct. If you look at him, you get the feeling he is nonchalant about the whole thing. I don’t really believe it is true, but lasting impressions are everything. I think he had such innate ability that he took a lot for granted. Whether he goes Tim Stauffer on us and rebounds by working his tail off remains to be seen. His numbers say that isn’t happening.

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Every year MadFriars.com publishes its annual Top 20 Prospect rankings which is usually picked up by all five of the San Diego Padres’ affiliates for use on their websites and in their programs (the AZL Padres do not have a website). This year a condensed version of the article is also scheduled to run in several newspapers.

As with last year we interviewed the two authors, Denis Savage and John Conniff, who between them visit every site and interview nearly every Padres’ prospect, coach, scout, manager and front office personnel - and maybe even this year a few of the batboys.

This is part II of our interview.  Part I can be found here, and part III will run tomorrow…

Please tell us something that will keep us from completely jumping off the Cedric Hunter bandwagon.

John: I can’t really help you there. In my opinion the best case scenario is that Hunter turns into Tony Gwynn Jr., only without the on-base skills and defense.

I know that sounds harsh and I had ranked as the Padres number one prospect going into 2009 based on his performance with the Storm, his age and most importantly the progress that I believed he would make in AA.

In San Antonio he was still able to put the bat on the ball, he only struck out 43 times in 566 plate appearances, but he also only had 28 extra-base hits and 25 walks. There are many external factors behind his struggles, tough park to hit in, better and more experienced pitching but the dominant factor was Hunter’s lack of selectivity at the plate.

Hunter is still very young, he will only be 22 going into this season. But in order for him to succeed he is going to have to fundamentally change his game, learn to work counts, drive the ball and become more of a threat when he gets on base. He could do it, and I could certainly be wrong, but making that drastic a change at the AA level is very difficult.

Denis: Well, I have some disagreements here. I think Hunter could hit .300 in the big leagues with some pop.

He needs to get stronger – there is no doubt about that. He needs to really work the weight room and he has the frame to add muscle and sustain it. As John mentioned, he also needs to be more selective. I asked this question to the Padres brass after 2008 and was rebuffed – I wondered if he made too much contact and was swinging outside the zone. The response I received was you could get away with it for a while but not over a full season.

They were wrong. I was right. Sometimes you look back and wish you stuck with your gut. Other times you wish you were swayed by something someone said. I have been in both categories and have also stuck to my guns and been rewarded.

Back to Hunter – he needs better pitch selection. Swinging outside the zone has resulted in weak contact. He has such amazing hand-eye coordination that Hunter could be deadly – if he was swinging at the right pitches. I think he can be taught and perhaps that is the difference between John and I. I think he can parlay impressive bat control into something more. He is a smart kid. He has listened to the wrong people at times but is coming around. I still have hope.

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Every year MadFriars.com publishes its annual Top 20 Prospect rankings which is usually picked up by all five of the Padres’ affiliates for use on their websites and in their programs (the AZL Padres do not have a website). This year a condensed version of the article is also scheduled to run in several newspapers.

As with last year we interviewed the two authors, Denis Savage and John Conniff, who between them visit every site and interview nearly every Padres’ prospect, coach, scout, manager and front office personnel - and maybe even this year a few of the batboys.

Seriously, the MadFriars.com rankings is the most comprehensive anyone will find in print and on the Internet because it takes into account not only what got the players onto the list, but also what can take them off.

Additionally, as everyone will see in the interview, there is a reason that they live three thousand miles apart.

What is your opinion on the new management’s apparent desire to de-emphasize scouting and development in Latin America?

John: I’m not sure if they are de-emphasizing the program, they just didn’t sign someone of the stature of Adys Portillo this year. Its great that the team has more of a presence in Latin America, especially the Dominican Republic than before, but it is also the area of development which also has the most risk. Remember the players that are being scouted are around 14 or 15 and sign with a big league team at 16; so projecting what they may or may not be six or seven years is incredibly difficult.

Denis: As John mentioned, I don’t believe this is true. The divorce of John Moores had an effect on how the Padres acted during the signing period last year, but Randy Smith has also been very active in waiting the market out. He signed Engel Beltre – thought to be one of the top prospects – for much less than he originally wanted. He has also added Yoan Alcantara and Ramon Mercedes – two high profile hitters that have significant ceilings. I think we have to wait before making a determination on the future of the Padres efforts in Latin America.

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by Mike Rogers 

I’m terrible with intro’s and don’t like to do them, so I’ll go with the quick-and-dirty method:

Who: Mike Rogers
What: Co-author/blogger/baseball nut
Where: Right here on Myron’s blog. And my own, occasionally.
When: When something link-worthy, discussion-worthy, or worthy of being analyzed happens with the Padres and/or baseball in general.
Why: This is the big’un. Myron and I have had some correspondence and he offered this opportunity to me out of the blue. A few moments of thinking and, well, why not? I like what Myron’s built here and like talking baseball (especially with numbers), so, here I am.

I haven’t come here to just introduce myself, I come bearing a couple of links…

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Here’s the final list:

1. Headley
2. Antonelli
3. Latos
4. Blanks
5. Hunter
6. LeBlanc
7. Carvajal
8. Kulbacki
9. Inman
10. Huffman
11. Hundley
12. Carrillo
13. Miller
14. Cumberland
15. Rincon

Again, thanks a bunch to all who participated. At some point, I’m going to put together a spreadsheet with all of the different Padre prospect lists out there, so we can compare them. Hopefully next year (if I’m still here blogging!) we’ll have more participants, although this was a great start.

Cumberland takes the #14 spot. This is as far as we’re going. I’ll wrap it up sometime next week with a look at our list compared to some other ones around the net. Anyway, thanks a lot for participating, whether you voted once or all 15 times. It was a fun little experiment and hopefully it will only grow next year.

1. Headley
2. Antonelli
3. Latos
4. Blanks
5. Hunter
6. LeBlanc
7. Carvajal
8. Kulbacki
9. Inman
10. Huffman
11. Hundley
12. Carrillo
13. Miller
14. Cumberland
15.

Drew Miller = #13. Only two spots left, so let’s finish strong … 

1. Headley
2. Antonelli
3. Latos
4. Blanks
5. Hunter
6. LeBlanc
7. Carvajal
8. Kulbacki
9. Inman
10. Huffman
11. Hundley
12. Carrillo
13. Miller
14. Cast your vote here

Cesar Carrillo edges out Edinson Rincon for the #12 spot. 

1. Headley
2. Antonelli
3. Latos
4. Blanks
5. Hunter
6. LeBlanc
7. Carvajal
8. Kulbacki
9. Inman
10. Huffman
11. Hundley
12. Carrillo
13. Vote away!

Nick Hundley takes the #11 spot with only 2 votes. Participation’s dwindling a bit so we’re only going to 15 (thanks to everyone who has played along!).

1. Headley
2. Antonelli
3. Latos
4. Blanks
5. Hunter
6. LeBlanc
7. Carvajal
8. Kulbacki
9. Inman
10. Huffman
11. Hundley
12. Vote in the comments

 Chad Huffman edges out Cesar Carrillo and Nick Hundley for the #10 spot.

1. Headley
2. Antonelli
3. Latos
4. Blanks
5. Hunter
6. LeBlanc
7. Carvajal
8. Kulbacki
9. Inman
10. Huffman
11. Vote here!