John Conniff is a senior writer for MadFriars.com, a webzine that covers the San Diego Padres minor league system, and a free-lance contributor to Baseball America and 619 Sports.net. As in the past, we caught up with him to get his impressions on his third trip of the year to the AAA Portland Beavers.

1. What happened to Mark Worrell? He was doing tremendous than sort of ran into bad game after bad game?

John Conniff: You know its tough to tell. As you said he got off to a good start in April and then kind of ran into some bad outings. Right now he’s pretty far down on the bullpen chart in Portland with Ernesto Frieri, Scott Munter, Adam Russell and Aaron Poreda all ahead of him on the depth chart let alone in San Antonio.

2. What are the fans impressions of losing the team next year?

John Conniff: The majority of my time was in Eugene, so I was only in Portland for a game but just by talking with people around the Beavers it hasn’t been a good season. The night I was at the park, ironically the same night Geoff Young of Ducksnorts was there, but we missed each other, it was as dead as any minor league stadium that I have been too. I think its equal parts that the team isn’t going to be there next year and the other is that the team just isn’t very good this year.

3. Going into the year the Padres were raving about a guy they claimed off waivers named Dusty Ryan. Ryan is currently hitting .129 in AAA and struggling. Is he really the player the Padres hyped him up to be or is he the .129 hitting catcher that we are watching in Portland?

John Conniff: The people that I spoke with, who want to remain anonymous, believe he is the catcher that we are seeing now. One of them said he was the worst hitter that they saw in the PCL this year.

4. Every year the Padres appear to have stacked teams in San Antonio, Lake Elsinore, and Fort Wayne, and yet in the past few years the Beavers have been a wasteland for talent. The prospects that do come to Portland in years past either struggle (Antonelli, Zawadzki, Cunningham) or are gone so fast before they can really give the Beaver fans something to be excited about (Venable, Blanks, Headley). Who in Portland currently should Padre fans, and Beaver fans, be excited about? Are there any future Padre starters on that team?

John Conniff: I think there are a few. For pitchers I really like Ernesto Frieri, who has put up some pretty good numbers for a closer on a bad team. Adam Russell, who is struggling now, I think also will eventually end up in the Padres’ bullpen as well. For position players, if you give Lance Zawadzki a mulligan for April, he’s played pretty well and I’ve always been a big fan of his game. I like Luis Durrango too, but I’m not sure as an everyday player. Finally I’ve always been a big fan of Mike Baxter, who can play both corners of the infield, all three outfield positions and even serve as an emergency catcher if needed.

In many ways AAA is my least favorite of all the levels to go too because its really a place where for most players their dreams of being a major league player end. You have so many players that have major league experience that it didn’t work out for and are just hanging on. On the other side you have players that have performed well in the lower leagues, but not quite good enough to really earn a spot on a big league roster.

Most of the guys have also been doing this for three or four years and their bonuses were some time ago. Its one thing to be playing pro baseball for little or no money at 19 or 21, quite another when you are over 25 and starting to wonder if you made the right career decision.

Denis Savage is the publisher of MadFriars.com, a webzine that covers the San Diego Padres’ minor league system. Along with John Conniff they both visit the various affiliates throughout the season. We caught up with Denis for one of their first trips of the year to get his impressions on a team that this year resembles a T-ball team because of their youth; the Fort Wayne TinCaps of the low-A Midwest League.

1) How much of a concern is Jonathan Galvez’s defense? He committed his 15th error in only the second week of May and from listening to games it doesn’t seem like there is much improvement. Is there any chance they move him to second sooner rather than later?

Denis Savage: No way they move him to second base right now. Obviously, they will get him some reps over there, as they have with all of their shortstop prospects, but his position remains at short. Watching him play, you can see the grace in his movements. He really is fun to watch and has grown recently. Impopssible throws he tried early in the year are now being held. It is part of the process with Galvez. He has a penchant for being flashy but is really learning his own limitations and growing from that. Most of the errors are throwing errors. He understands he rushes his throws and is working towards slowing the game down. It isn’t as big a concern as one might believe.

2) The three Dominican starters, Edison Rincon, Rymer Liriano, and Galvez have all struggled immensely offensively this season. While the season is still early, are these young hitters just pressing as they enter their first full professional season? If not is there something mechanically different with their swings, or are they just being overmatched?

Denis Savage: Believe it or not, this was expected. It would be easy to say they are pressing, but the reality is that they are young players experiencing cold weather for the first time. The average temperature in Fort Wayne during the month of April was 56.5 degrees. At night, they saw 10 days where the temperature was in the 30s. By contrast, the average low in the Dominican Republic is 73 degrees in April. Being a New Jersey native, I could handle this. Now that I have been in San Diego for 10 years, I am not so sure. My hands would be like ice. Gripping the bat would be only because it might warm me up. Each time I swung, I would fear getting sawed off because my hands would go from shaking to rattling. John is more adept at swinging in the cold now; John’s problem is he can only hit a ball thrown by a third grader, underhand.

Now, pressing may actually come from this as the weather warms. If they create bad habits because of the lack of success, than your assessment later in the year will be more accurate. As of now, all three are on the right path. Rincon is still a pure hitter. Galvez is prone to having mental lapses. Liriano still susceptible to the off-speed. They have growing to do and expect the second half to prove they are capable of playing at this level.

3) With Donovan Tate, Keyvius Sampson, and James Needy all starting the year in extended Everett Williams is the only high school draftee to make it to Fort Wayne. With all eyes on him to represent the new “approach” to drafting, how has Williams looked both offensively and defensively? Is there a reason why he has only 3 stolen base attempts all season?

Denis Savage: His offense has come a long way since I last saw him. He looks like he has a clearer understanding of his own strike zone. He swings too hard at times but this kid has a feel for hitting that will only improve over time. He has natural power and smokes balls that he hits. It is pretty rare to see weak contact. And he has become a battler in working the count of late. That bodes well for his future, as his baseball acumen has made great strides in a short amount of time.

His defense was, in a word, horrific. I was honestly shocked at how bad his routes are. Remember the kid who was taken last in softball and thrown out in left field, praying no one would hit the ball to him (sorry if this was you or John Conniff) - Williams fits this description. He gave up on balls out there – got turned around several times and has a long way to go before I believe he can play a capable center field. It was the most surprising thing I saw during my time in Fort Wayne. The good news is I expect him to get a lot better. Heck, there is really no other way to go but up.

4) For the past two years the TinCaps have been blessed with an 8th and 9th inning tandem of Jackson Quezada and Bryan Oland in 2008 and Alexis Lara and Brad Brach in 2009. Unfortunately this year the bullpen looks like a hot mess. The TinCaps have used twelve different relievers already in the season, and while most of the ERA’s are respectable the TinCaps went through a five game span earlier when they blew four saves. Is there any consistency beginning to form with the back of the bullpen? If so what guys should we keep an eye on? Rafael Arias?

Denis Savage: Well, everyone should keep an eye on Arias, but he may miss the rest of the year after experiencing shoulder and elbow pain. The bullpen in Fort Wayne does have a bunch of guys who are transitioning from starting roles. That is a challenge for some. Having said that, Jeff Ibarra and Nick Schumacher deserve a look. Ibarra has a wicked slider but needs to fill out and return to health from a concussion. Schumacher has a tremendous cutter but his fastball isn’t mid-90s so his command must be on. Daniel Sarria is interesting but appears to be groomed for more of a starting role since he has as many as six pitches at his disposal. He is a backwards pitcher. I actually believe Nick Greenwood has a chance to live a long life in the majors as a lefty reliever, although he is starting today. Miles Mikolas has a new arm slot that hides the ball better and a great curveball. His fastball velocity needs to return.

5) Pitcher Dexter Carter was voted one of the Top 20 prospects in the Sally League last year. Unfortunately after the trade to the Padres he was more suspect than prospect. This year his numbers have been better, but still nowhere near the numbers that one would expect from a top prospect. Is there any reason to explain the differences in stats? Is Dexter Carter a suspect or a prospect?

Denis Savage: I saw Carter for the first time in instructs and came away thinking there is something there. I liked his breaking ball and his fastball has movement. I thought the changeup needed quite a bit of work. Carter said he has committed to throwing it and the changeup is now his best pitch.

One thing that is interesting: a lot of scouts I have spoken to say the difference in the quality between the Sally League and the Midwest League is huge. They all said it was like going from short-season to Low-A – that big of a jump. It surprised me.

Today, Carter’s biggest problem is location. He has the pitches to be successful but spotting them well has been an issue. He will also nibble rather than pitching to contact. Mechanically, he does not get a very good downhill plane, despite his size. He has this cross-body motion that he is trying to eliminate and falls off to the third base side. That messes with his command.

The second half of this season will tell us the real answer. Has he learned and adapted? He has some mental hurdles to jump over, as he is his hardest critic. It is a blessing and a curse. You have to be realistic. He has such high expectations that when he fails to reach them, it can continue to affect him into his next start. He must mature in that area.

by Daniel Gettinger

The San Diego Padres begin a four game series with the Braves today.  In anticipation of the series, I answered a few questions for Scott Humphries of the Atlanta Braves blog Tomahawk Talk.  Some of the questions dealt with the Padres, and some were more Braves focused.  You can read the entire interview on Tomahawk Talk, but here is a quick excerpt:

Tomahawk Talk: The Padres are currently scheduled to face three of the Braves’ best starting pitchers (Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, and Tim Hudson) in this week’s series. What are your thoughts on those guys?

Daniel Gettinger: Tommy Hanson is fantastic. He dominated at every level in the minors, had a great rookie season, and projects to be just as good this season. And I like Tim Hudson as well. His problem has never been effectiveness, it’s been staying healthy. I’m not quite as bullish on Jurrjens, but at the very least, he is an above average starting pitcher. Given his major league service time, a player like Jurrjens is extremely valuable to a team.

Tomahawk Talk: What are your initial thoughts/impressions of this year’s Braves team?

Daniel Gettinger: The Braves should be very good in 2010. The starting pitching is fantastic, and the bats are pretty solid as well. The key for the Braves will be staying healthy. Chipper Jones, Troy Glaus, Tim Hudson, and Billy Wagner have all struggled to stay off the DL in recent years and are being heavily relied upon by the Braves.

by Ben Davey

As with last year, we caught up with John Conniff of MadFriars.com on his recent trip to Peoria, Arizona to find out how the San Diego Padres’ prospects are looking this spring.

1) The first question has to center around Logan Forsythe. In the offseason we heard that he might go to second base, but it probably wouldn’t happen for a year. Then he started playing second base in spring training, with inkling that he might play it this year in San Antonio. How has Forsythe looked at second and will he stay there in the regular season? And where does he eventually end up Portland or San Antonio?

John Conniff: Based on what I was reading on the Union Tribune and on a few other sites I thought going to spring training that this was a done deal; Forsythe is now a second baseman. I interviewed Logan the first day I was in Peoria and he claimed this has been way overblown.

He has played a little at second in the spring MLB games mainly to give someone a blow. Ninety-five percent of the reps that he has been taking have been at third base and, according to Logan; no one has told him that he will be playing at second this year. The Padres coaches that we talked to have been saying that he could play some second but right now there are no plans to move him.

Since James Darnell is ticketed for San Antonio, I can’t see Forsythe not being in Portland especially with the way he has performed in the big league camp.

2) Last year Jeremy McBryde, Kellen Kulbacki, Steve Garrison, and Drew Miller were a few high profile prospects to miss significant time due to injury. How have they looked in Spring Training, and will they be healthy enough to join their assigned team for opening day on April 8th?

John Conniff: I didn’t see much of Miller, Denis may have more information on that that I do. McBryde has looked ok; he’s still on the fence between San Antonio and Lake Elsinore. Kulbacki is healthy but didn’t really show much in the game that I saw. When speaking with most of the coaches that all recognize his talent but really need to see more consistency from him especially as a corner outfielder/middle of the order bat. He should begin the year in San Antonio.
Garrison has looked good in drills but they are still being very careful with him after his injury. He should be available sometime in May and probably in AA.

3) Has spring training cleared up any of the questions regarding the Fort Wayne outfield? How have Williams, Tate, and Liriano looked this spring, and is there a chance all of them end up in Fort Wayne to begin the year?

John Conniff: Not really and I think there are quite a few debates going on right now. However I am pretty sure that Everett Williams will be in about any scenario. He impressed me the most of the three. Good athlete, simple, repeatable swing and a very solid idea of the strike zone for a young player. He doesn’t have the power of a Jaff Decker but they are similar in the fact that you can see they have played quite a bit of baseball. I think he could do pretty well in Fort Wayne this year.
Donovan Tate is a physical specimen and when he takes batting practice you can see what the Padres are hoping he will become. The problem that I think he has is that he really hasn’t played as much baseball as someone like Jaff Decker or Williams and is going to have trouble making contact right now against more advanced pitching. I didn’t see him hit a ball square the time I was out there. On what they will do with him this year, I’m not really sure they know either. In my opinion the best scenario is to keep him in extended spring training, work with him on baseball skills, and then send him to Eugene. If he puts up great numbers he can always begin next year in Lake Elsinore.
Liriano is another player that is a very good athlete but also struggles with the breaking pitch. Right now, mainly because he is so young and the team has so much outfield depth, it could be a reach for him to begin the year in Fort Wayne.

4) Is there any player(s) who have come to spring training looking drastically improved in body, attitude and or appearance on the field?

John Conniff: Nearly everyone I saw in camp looked, to use the Johnny Drama phrase from Entourage, “lean”. Seriously, the Jaff Decker looked great, between 195 and 200. He wasn’t that much heavier in Fort Wayne but you can tell he really worked out and replaced quite a bit of baby fat with muscle. Once he recovers from his hamstring injury he could really put up some numbers in Lake Elsinore this year.

5) With Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod now in charge it seems that the new organizational philosophy is adapting the players to Petco. Is this philosophy of being more aggressive at the plate and on the base paths being stressed in the minor league camp? If so, what is the general reaction by players and coaches to this new philosophy?

John Conniff: I think the new regime has pretty much the same philosophy as the old one, especially in how much they value on-base percentage and pitchers not allowing walks. The big difference is they are going to look for players that are a little more athletic and plan to be more aggressive on the bases. So in a nutshell they still want to teach the same philosophy, but just start with better parts.

Every year MadFriars.com publishes its annual Top 20 Prospect rankings which is usually picked up by all five of the San Diego Padres’ affiliates for use on their websites and in their programs (the AZL Padres do not have a website). This year a condensed version of the article is also scheduled to run in several newspapers.

As with last year we interviewed the two authors, Denis Savage and John Conniff, who between them visit every site and interview nearly every Padres’ prospect, coach, scout, manager and front office personnel - and maybe even this year a few of the batboys.

This is part II of our interview.  Part I can be found here, and part III will run tomorrow…

Please tell us something that will keep us from completely jumping off the Cedric Hunter bandwagon.

John: I can’t really help you there. In my opinion the best case scenario is that Hunter turns into Tony Gwynn Jr., only without the on-base skills and defense.

I know that sounds harsh and I had ranked as the Padres number one prospect going into 2009 based on his performance with the Storm, his age and most importantly the progress that I believed he would make in AA.

In San Antonio he was still able to put the bat on the ball, he only struck out 43 times in 566 plate appearances, but he also only had 28 extra-base hits and 25 walks. There are many external factors behind his struggles, tough park to hit in, better and more experienced pitching but the dominant factor was Hunter’s lack of selectivity at the plate.

Hunter is still very young, he will only be 22 going into this season. But in order for him to succeed he is going to have to fundamentally change his game, learn to work counts, drive the ball and become more of a threat when he gets on base. He could do it, and I could certainly be wrong, but making that drastic a change at the AA level is very difficult.

Denis: Well, I have some disagreements here. I think Hunter could hit .300 in the big leagues with some pop.

He needs to get stronger – there is no doubt about that. He needs to really work the weight room and he has the frame to add muscle and sustain it. As John mentioned, he also needs to be more selective. I asked this question to the Padres brass after 2008 and was rebuffed – I wondered if he made too much contact and was swinging outside the zone. The response I received was you could get away with it for a while but not over a full season.

They were wrong. I was right. Sometimes you look back and wish you stuck with your gut. Other times you wish you were swayed by something someone said. I have been in both categories and have also stuck to my guns and been rewarded.

Back to Hunter – he needs better pitch selection. Swinging outside the zone has resulted in weak contact. He has such amazing hand-eye coordination that Hunter could be deadly – if he was swinging at the right pitches. I think he can be taught and perhaps that is the difference between John and I. I think he can parlay impressive bat control into something more. He is a smart kid. He has listened to the wrong people at times but is coming around. I still have hope.

Read the rest of this entry »

Every year MadFriars.com publishes its annual Top 20 Prospect rankings which is usually picked up by all five of the Padres’ affiliates for use on their websites and in their programs (the AZL Padres do not have a website). This year a condensed version of the article is also scheduled to run in several newspapers.

As with last year we interviewed the two authors, Denis Savage and John Conniff, who between them visit every site and interview nearly every Padres’ prospect, coach, scout, manager and front office personnel - and maybe even this year a few of the batboys.

Seriously, the MadFriars.com rankings is the most comprehensive anyone will find in print and on the Internet because it takes into account not only what got the players onto the list, but also what can take them off.

Additionally, as everyone will see in the interview, there is a reason that they live three thousand miles apart.

What is your opinion on the new management’s apparent desire to de-emphasize scouting and development in Latin America?

John: I’m not sure if they are de-emphasizing the program, they just didn’t sign someone of the stature of Adys Portillo this year. Its great that the team has more of a presence in Latin America, especially the Dominican Republic than before, but it is also the area of development which also has the most risk. Remember the players that are being scouted are around 14 or 15 and sign with a big league team at 16; so projecting what they may or may not be six or seven years is incredibly difficult.

Denis: As John mentioned, I don’t believe this is true. The divorce of John Moores had an effect on how the Padres acted during the signing period last year, but Randy Smith has also been very active in waiting the market out. He signed Engel Beltre – thought to be one of the top prospects – for much less than he originally wanted. He has also added Yoan Alcantara and Ramon Mercedes – two high profile hitters that have significant ceilings. I think we have to wait before making a determination on the future of the Padres efforts in Latin America.

Read the rest of this entry »

by Ben Davey

On the third leg of the Madfriars.com tour we caught up with senior writer John Conniff as he visited the Fort Wayne TinCaps, the Padres low A affiliate in the Midwest League. Fort Wayne is the first full season league, playing 140 games or more, and has just moved into a brand new facility, Parkview Field at Harrison Square.

1) My first question has to be why is this team so dominant? In the past month they have lost Carroll, Darnel, Clark, Schmidt and Bass all to Lake Elsinore, yet they still have a 20-4 record in the second half of the season and an unearthly 65-20 record overall.

John Conniff: I think you partially answered the question; it’s just a very deep team. Carroll, Darnel and Clark were all with the team until mid-June, so when that is combined with Decker, Tekotte, Robertson and Cumberland, all of whom are patient hitters it was a pretty formidable lineup. The promotions allowed Robertson to play more, who has really produced. The late addition of second baseman Cole Figueroa, who is producing the way the Padres always thought he would be during spring training, you have five pretty good players in the everyday lineup.

Even with the promotions of Latos, who was only there for two starts and four games, Schmidt and Bass, they still have three pretty good starters in Castro, Osuna and Watt. Brach, Herr and Gonzalez have been very good in the pen; Brach is leading the organization in saves.

Finally, the defense is good, especially in the outfield. Both Decker and Robertson played some centerfield last year and both can really throw. Tekotte is very good in center and makes many plays appear much easier than they are.

2) Last year in Eugene, Dan Robertson broke the all time Northwest League hitting record by amassing 114 hits in only 73 games and ended with an amazing .377/.443/.497 line. Yet he was a 33^rd round pick, so many of scouts and fans were unsure whether it was a fluke, or if he might be the real deal. I know Fort Wayne isn’t the best indicator of MLB success but what is your opinion on Robertson? Is he someone that you can see succeeding at higher levels?

John Conniff: It is a long way from Fort Wayne to the big leagues and most people can find many reasons why Robertson won’t make it, but then again most the same people doubted he would have the success he is having now. Regardless of what anyone does or does not think about him he’s performing and is going to keep getting that chance until he demonstrates that he can’t.

Defensively, he has speed and is a natural center fielder that has the arm to play right field as well. At the plate he has some pop, but what most impressed me was his understanding of situational hitting and forcing the pitcher to throw something he didn’t want too. In three games I didn’t see him have a single bad at-bat and he has a very quick short swing.

3) Sticking with the outfield theme what are your impressions of the other two outfielders in Fort Wayne, Jaff Decker and Blake Tekotte? How do they look defensively? Are the Padres viewing Decker as almost solely a left fielder now?

John Conniff: It’s easily the best defensive outfield that I have seen the organization put in the field since I’ve been with Madfriars. Decker can really play either corner and Tekotte has everything you want to see in a center fielder. All three of them move and throw very well.

4) With 3/5 of Fort Wayne’s April rotation gone (Latos, Schmidt, and Bass) and another one (Musgrave) being sent to the pen, the Tin Caps have had to greatly adjust their rotation. They are now being led by Stiven Osuna and Simon Castro. I know Madfriars thought a lot of these two going into the year. Have they lived up to expectations? You had the chance to see both of them pitch, how did they look, and what is their best pitch?

John Conniff: Castro has tremendous upside. He’s a legitimate 6’5” with a fastball that sits in the low 90’s and can touch 94 to 95. He has a good slider, but the big advantage for him is the development of his changeup, which is especially devastating when you throw as hard as he does. He is still has a ways to go in terms of consistency, but he has a chance to be very good.

Osuna relies more upon change of speeds and location. He was their best pitcher in the AZL last year and his catcher Robert Lara claims that since he has come back from the bullpen, with a few mechanical adjustments, he’s a different pitcher. Throwing changeups in fastball counts and essentially not missing with his location.

5) Is there any player outside of the top prospects that we should keep an eye on? Is there any player(s) who is playing a lot better than their stats might indicate? Anyone playing worse *cough* Dykstra?

John Conniff: I saw both Kyle Blanks and Cedric Hunter when they were in Fort Wayne and Jaff Decker is head and shoulders above them. Great looking swing, very advanced idea of what he is trying to do at the plate and an underrated all around player. Additionally, I think he’s a plus corner outfielder defensively.

Drew Cumberland looks much better at short than he did last year. The Padres got him to separate his arm a little more from his body which has increased the strength of his arm and its accuracy. He’s also put on some weight and is starting to really drive the ball.

Dykstra is an interesting case. If you listen to the Padres he’s getting called out on many bad calls by inexperienced umpires. There have been certain adjustments to his swing and a wrist surgery that set back from his off-season preparations. They think he’s still going to be able to hit, but others who aren’t affiliated with the big club have their doubts, especially with his swing and ability to make solid contact. The positive side is he still has a near .400 OBP, but he’s slugging less than .400 and when you are straddling the Mendoza Line for the whole year it’s tough not to be disappointed and put a positive spin on it.

To his credit he’s taking extra batting practice and working as hard as they will allow him. Additionally, he doesn’t hide from anyone and answers every question that you will ask him and takes full responsibility for his performance.

Bonus Round

I feel justified as this isn’t a question pertaining to players, but Fort Wayne opened a new park this year. What is your impression of it?

John Conniff: A great park, easily the best in the system. It’s helping to revitalize downtown Fort Wayne and the park seats a little over 8,000; which means nearly every seat is a good seat. The park plays pretty fair, but is slightly skewed towards pitchers.

Also I like the new logo.

Next Month: Eugene

by Ben Davey

On the second leg of the Madfriars.com tour we caught up with senior writer John Conniff as he made his way across the Padres system to Lake Elsinore.  John was in Lake Elsinore in late May and we got his impressions of some of the more notable prospects on the Storm this year.

1) Coming into the year Madfriars had two members of the Storm rotation, Jeremy McBryde and Wynn Pelzer, in its Top 20 prospects, with the other three, Jeremy Hefner, Cory Luebke, and Corey Kluber also getting praise.  What was your overall impression of the rotation after watching them in person?  Did any pitcher(s) stand out?

John Conniff: I got to see Luebke twice and McBryde in the seventeen inning marathon, which means I also, saw about everyone in their bullpen. The pitching coach and manager Carlos Lezcano are very high on Pelzer; they even believe he could eventually become a #1 or #2 starter. I’m not sure about that, but so far his numbers are very good; particularly in going deeper into games. I was very impressed with McBryde from what I saw last year in Fort Wayne, he mixed his pitches much better and his main pitch, a very heavy sinker that comes in the low 90’s is compared to trying to hit a bowling ball.

Obviously Luebke looked great in the two starts that I saw, he was not the typical Padres soft tossing lefty we usually see at this level. He has good fastball command and nice slider and seemed to be the pitcher that Grady Fuson was raving about at the beginning of last year.

2) Who is Lance Zawadzki? Last year he seemed to play second fiddle to Cumberland till he got hurt, and coming into this year was not ranked as a top prospect. Is he a legit “5 tool prospect” at shortstop? Defensively does he look like he can stay at short?

John Conniff: Actually he just missed our Top 20 and I had him rated as one of the top sleepers in the system.

http://padres.scout.com/2/848225.html

He has the potential to become a five-tool prospect, but right now the offensive side is much more apparent than the defensive skills, although he did look much better than he last year in the field. He has a very strong arm, good range but right now his hands, especially when compared to Beemer Weems who receives the majority of time at shortstop, don’t seem to be as fluid as you would like to see in a shortstop. Offensively the switch-hitting Zawadzki has a very smooth swing from both sides and his power has really shown up this year, he’s leading the Storm in extra-base hits.

I think he will stay in the middle infield, as far as shortstop I think the jury is still out. I do know the Padres are going to make him prove he can’t play shortstop, because if he can that bat could be special at that position.

3) You got a chance to see Bryan Oland, what was your overall impression of him? Will he be a guy that we see in San Diego in a few years? Also was there anyone else in the Storm bullpen that pleasantly surprised you?

John Conniff: We liked him quite a bit last year; he was in the running for our pitcher of the year. He’s a big guy that throws a pretty consistent low 90’s fastball to go along with a big split- fingered change. He’s made the most of his opportunity to close with Jackson Quezada, who was the closer last year for Fort Wayne, being injured. The coaches on the Storm said that what was the most impressive thing about Oland is anytime and in any situation he has the same demeanor and approach, he just goes after hitters. I do like him in the future for San Diego because he is not someone that relies upon a trick pitch or has an over reliance on a changeup, he has stuff to get people out.

In the bullpen no one really stood out, although Aaron Breit’s stuff, when he is on, is always impressive.

4) In last year’s draft the Padres selected two third baseman, Logan Forsythe and James Darnell in two of the first four picks. Forsythe was injured early while Darnell, despite signing late, tore up Eugene. However this year Forsythe got the nod to start in Elsinore over Darnell. What was your impression of Logan Forsythe? Finally, would you still pick Darnell over Forsythe as a top prospect?

John Conniff: He only played twelve games last year, and nine were on a rehab assignment in the AZL, so there wasn’t much to go on. However, Denis Savage, the publisher of Madfriars, did see him in the Instructional Leagues and spring training and was impressed.

In the three games I really liked what I saw. Whenever you talk to the Padres’ organization they are always pushing the professional hitter concept, someone who knows the strike zone and waits to get their pitch; and when they do it goes somewhere. Forsythe is the prototype of this theory; he was constantly getting himself into hitters’ counts and even when he was behind was still able to put a good swing on the ball. He had a good month in April and a better one in May, especially in terms of power. Defensively his arm can be a little erratic, but he has nice hands and fields the ball cleanly. If he maintains his current pace he could become our Player of the Year.

As for being rated over Darnell, ask me next month after I’ve seen him in Fort Wayne.

5) Last question, what did you think of Brad Chalk? Does he have enough offense to reach the majors? What current ball player would be a good comparison for him? Reggie Willits?

John Conniff: He has more speed than Willits and is another guy that has really improved from last year; he’s putting much better swings on the ball and driving it. He’s not going to be a home run hitter, but you are seeing many more balls being driven into the gaps, he’s one of the leaders in the Cal League in triples. Defensively he has good speed and takes solid routes, his arm is average.

Offensively its fun to watch players that are successful at this level, but it’s hard to project at the major league level until they take the big jump to AA. I liked the progress that I saw from Zawadzki, Chalk and Yefri Carvajal from last year, so they are definitely on the right path.

Next Month: Fort Wayne

by Ben Davey

John Conniff is the senior writer for Madfriars.com, a website that covers the San Diego minor league system. Each year Madfriars visits all five of the Padres minor league teams.  They don’t go to the AZL and sit in the Phoenix heat for midday games; they are dedicated, but not crazy.

We caught up with John after his recent trip to San Antonio and got his impressions on the AA Missions and what prospects could eventually make their way to San Diego…

Madfriars had Cedric Hunter listed as their #1 overall prospect but 15 games into the year he is just hitting .222 with 0 HR and only 1 SB.  I know 15 games aren’t close to a whole season but did you notice any differences between his approach at the plate and in the field he also has 2 errors?

John Conniff: When I first saw him in Fort Wayne in 2007 I noticed he always had a rather complicated swing that relied on quite a bit of movement before he got into position to hit. It’s been cleaned up, but there are still a lot of things going on which makes him vulnerable to off-speed pitches, which there are much more of in the Texas League. The San Antonio coaches and Cedric are aware of it and trying to make adjustments to go along with the buzzard’s look he has been having at the plate. I look for him to bounce back, but remember this is the biggest jump in the minors because there is a huge gap between A ball and AA.

In the field he looks the same, he’s very smooth with a solid and improving arm. He can get a little lackadaisical at times, especially when he is in left field where one of the errors occurred.

One of your biggest critiques on Luis Durango was that despite the great speed he never really used it to steal bases (last year 15 SB in 23attempts).  15 games into the season this year he already is 10 of 11 in stolen base attempts, is Durango finally turning the corner and becoming a top prospect?

John Conniff: I think he is. One of the biggest improvements is the increase in arm strength and he is taking much better routes to the ball. He has improved so much that the team is putting him in center field a few times a week, something they wouldn’t have done last year in Fort Wayne. Offensively, he is being much more intelligent when he runs and at the plate what really separates him from other hitters is his hand-eye coordination and ability to lay off bad pitches. Even though he’s from Panama he kind of reminds me of a Japanese hitter the way he can move both of his feet when he is in the box and still make contact. And as everyone knows, he can really run.

3) How did Mitch Canham look behind the plate?  Offensively he has really been the Mission’s best hitter but his defense was always the biggest flaw.  Any improvements over last year?

John Conniff: He still has a ways to go, but the Padres are being very diligent about working with him. Before every game he is catching multiple bullpens and going through all kinds of individual catching drills with Terry Kennedy, the Missions manager and former major league catcher; and this is in addition to lifting weights, BP, meeting with pitchers and the pitching coach, ended by squatting for nine innings behind the plate.

Remember he only started to catch in college, so he’s pretty new to the position. One thing Kennedy did say to me was that he was impressed not only how hard he is working before the game but that he wants to be a catcher; he doesn’t just see it as a place for him to get his at-bats. At the plate he’s been impressive, more of a gap-power hitter than someone who is going to put the ball over the fence. For a comparison, he’s ahead of Hundley offensively at this stage in his career, but far behind him defensively.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see him really improve defensively this year; he has the physical ability and desire.

4) How has the bullpen looked, was there any reliever that really impressed you, or any reliever that you were disappointed in other than Britton?

John Conniff: The closer Scribner has been impressive and after a rough start Mike DeMark has thrown well. DeMark, who was the Madfriars.com Pitcher of the Year in 2008, is really a great story, former position player signed out of the Independent Leagues that has really come on. The key success for him was finally getting a changeup to go along with his mid-90’s fastball and a good slider.

5) Finally, what was your take from San Antonio?  Any particular player really impresses you that we should keep an eye on?

John Conniff: Eric Sogard impressed me as much as any player that I have seen at the plate. In the three games I saw he didn’t have one bad at-bat and saw an average of around 6 pitches an appearance. He drove the ball, laid down a perfect bunt and seemed to have a very good idea of what he wanted to do at each at-bat. The big knock on him is if he has the range to play second, but he looked pretty good in the series that I saw. People that see him all the time describe him as much more steady than flashy, but to me he seems like the perfect number two hitter.

If he keeps playing the way he is now, which I think he can, it’s going to be tough for Antonelli to hold him off.

Next month: Lake Elsinore

Madfriars covers Padres prospects in great depth throughout the year.  Recently they released their list of the top 20 Padres prospects.  The list includes an in-depth analysis of each prospect ranked.  Mad Friars has been kind enough to answer our questions about their list, the Padre’s system, and prospects in general.  This is the final part of our interview…

John Conniff:  I think his future with the Padres is at second not only because that is where he has the most value but arguably the team’s greatest depth is in center with Macias, Hunter and Tekotte. I’ve always liked Antonelli as a player and I think the best thing for him this year is to go to Portland and put together a few good months.  Just leave him alone and let him play. 

Denis Savage: I think there has to be an asterisk on this one.  When I spoke on this, I was looking at the glaring need for a center fielder within the system and at the major league level. There was no Jody Gerut at the time. I love Gerut, by the way. Having seen Antonelli briefly in center, I don’t think he can adjust to it quickly enough. To be blunt, he didn’t look good. At this point, keep him at second base. We have already asked him to make a position change once. There are other options that weren’t here a season ago. 

As for the bat, it will come around. Antonelli will be starting for the Padres next year and in subsequent years. 

You list Wynn Pelzer significantly higher on your list than most others who follow Padre prospects have him ranked.  What do you see in Pelzer that separates him from the other “Non-Latos” pitchers in the Padres’ system?

John Conniff: He keeps the ball down low with a hard two-seamer and he competes.  He led the Wizards in ERA last year and his coaches really rave about him, especially his ability to make adjustments. 

Denis Savage: I will go out on a limb – one of many I find myself standing alone on - and say that Pelzer will have more success at the major league level than any pitcher – outside of Portillo – in the Padres minors today. 

Pelzer is special. He has a terrific two-seamer. His slider is a plus-plus pitch. His changeup has a change to be a plus pitch after making huge strides in his first season throwing it – and he got rid of a split-fingered fastball that was a definite plus pitch that was second only to Latos’ knuckle-split in terms of how good it was.  

The important thing is he bought in to what the Padres are trying to accomplish in full.  He took instruction and applied it on the field better than any prospect last season. We have just touched the surface of how good he can be. 

What puts Cedric Hunter ahead of guys like Kyle Blanks and Kellen Kulbacki, who both appear to be better hitters? How big a factor does speed and defense play in Hunter’s future projection? 

John Conniff: I thought you could make a pretty good argument for any one of the first five to be the top prospect. I looked at it this way if Latos was healthy for the full year, then he’s the top guy. I’ll take anyone that is 6’6”, 215 and throws in the mid-90’s with control and the potential to be a number one starter.  

Hunter led the minors in hits, showed some gap power and played a very strong centerfield.  To me, he seems like the perfect fit for PETCO, a guy that can not only hit the ball into the gaps, but go get it as well.  He was the most advanced and still has some potential for power, but more of the gap variety than for home runs. 

Decker had an amazing year in the AZL, better than either Blanks or Hunter when they were there.  He not only showed great instincts at the plate, but is much better defensively than given credit for.  I’m usually not as high on players who do this in the short-season leagues, but right now he seems to do everything at the plate the Padres want.  He waits for his pitch and when it is there really does something with it.  

The only negative on Kulbacki really is that has performed in spurts, not really over a full season, but what he did over a three month period last year he was the most dominant player in the system. I’ve always liked Blanks, but until recently the Padres really didn’t have much interest in putting him anywhere other than first, and in the long run I like AGon more than Gigantor.  Part of it also is that I see his swing as much more of one designed for contact than raw power.  Again, he’s very good but there are quite a few mixed opinions on him. 

Denis Savage: When we compile our combined rankings, we do so with a lot of debate. John and I have unique perspectives that make it work and balance each other out.  

I had Blanks ranked first and believe he is the top prospect. John contends that if he is limited to first base, his value is diminished. He has a point.  I say that if we trade Blanks because he is a first baseman and we get a prospect who plays shortstop back – is the player received our top prospect? Probably. And then the debate really starts. We have learned to play much nicer with each other through the years but do get heated looking to champion ‘our’ prospect. To me, what Blanks did at his age was astounding. I am still fighting for him to be the top guy.  

On the other hand, Hunter is a terrific pick too. The way we see it, Hunter will always hit. He may not have the homers some would like or the speed others would covet, but Hunter reminds me of a Howie Kendrick. He can hit .330 in the big leagues and do damage. There is no player I would rather have up to bat for the hit-and-run, to move runners over, to drive in runs. He makes people pay by hitting the ball hard. I don’t think people realize how good he is already. His defense is sound. His speed, really his first-step quickness, needs work. 

Kulbacki, on the other hand, has a few more questions. There is no denying the monstrous numbers he put up with Lake Elsinore but we also have to look at slow starts in each of the past two seasons. He needs to have a good start to this year to propel him up the list. 

Also, what kind of impact does age have on the rankings? How much difference does a year or two make in terms of a player’s prospect status?

John Conniff: Age will always have some affect on a ranking; obviously a 19 year old that is tearing up the MWL is more impressive than someone that is doing it at 23.  However, it’s also important to realize why someone is at a certain level.  For example the reason David Freese was at Lake Elsinore for the full season in 2007 was that Chase Headley was above him at San Antonio and the Padres weren’t that keen on promoting Chase to a bad Portland team in AAA.  Freese could have handled the Texas League by mid-season at the latest, but there was nowhere for him to play. It was not a reflection upon his ability and he proved it by making the jump to AAA last year with the St. Louis system. 

Finally, how do you weigh the five tools when evaluating prospects? How important is each tool, relative to each other?

John Conniff: It’s important, especially at the lower levels because it gives you an indication of what someone has the potential to do.  Now whether they can do it on a consistent basis is another question.  To me the biggest thing to look at is the ability to control the strike zone, which is OBP for hitters and the K/BB ratio for pitchers.  If hitter doesn’t know what a strike is or is not at this level, the majors will be very tough.  The same goes for pitcher, you have to be able to throw strikes consistently because if you are always pitching in hitters counts you are going to get hit.

Denis Savage: All five tools are taken into consideration. For hitters, power and average are at the forefront. If they have plus speed, however, power is less important. Defensive tools are also important, especially when you consider the defensive expectations at Petco Park. 

A hitter with more than one plus tool and the potential for other plus tools is always coveted. When you find several plus tools, it generally shows. Carvajal has the potential to have four plus tools. Jaff Decker might only have three but his three outweigh Carvajal’s because he has proven he can supply production with those tools. Blanks has three tools that are considered plus and his power could be a plus-plus tool – with a potential rating of 80 on the traditional 20-80 scale. That is important to note. It isn’t just the tool but the current level of the tool and projection of the same tool – often two different numbers. Now, can the player meet that projection? This is where the fun really begins. 

On the pitching front, the tools we are looking for vary and aren’t simply specific to the effectiveness of their pitches. Velocity, movement, control, location, variance of speed between pitches, holding runners, and the quality of the pitches themselves. You can have the best slider in the world but if you can’t throw it for a strike than it is useless.  Jeremy McBryde made a statement last year in closing the gap between the level he was at and his ceiling (or meeting the projection on his tools). He still needs to throw the changeup more but even that pitch was vastly improved.  Wade LeBlanc does everything so well and has a changeup that rates as an 80 on the scout scale. A plus-plus pitch is worth a lot of points since a pitcher may only need three pitches to succeed.  Ivan Nova has three plus pitches but has further to go with them to reach his top potential. Steve Garrison might not have the true plus pitch but each offering is solid and his location, movement, and speed variance allow for success.