by Ben Davey

On the third leg of the Madfriars.com tour we caught up with senior writer John Conniff as he visited the Fort Wayne TinCaps, the Padres low A affiliate in the Midwest League. Fort Wayne is the first full season league, playing 140 games or more, and has just moved into a brand new facility, Parkview Field at Harrison Square.

1) My first question has to be why is this team so dominant? In the past month they have lost Carroll, Darnel, Clark, Schmidt and Bass all to Lake Elsinore, yet they still have a 20-4 record in the second half of the season and an unearthly 65-20 record overall.

John Conniff: I think you partially answered the question; it’s just a very deep team. Carroll, Darnel and Clark were all with the team until mid-June, so when that is combined with Decker, Tekotte, Robertson and Cumberland, all of whom are patient hitters it was a pretty formidable lineup. The promotions allowed Robertson to play more, who has really produced. The late addition of second baseman Cole Figueroa, who is producing the way the Padres always thought he would be during spring training, you have five pretty good players in the everyday lineup.

Even with the promotions of Latos, who was only there for two starts and four games, Schmidt and Bass, they still have three pretty good starters in Castro, Osuna and Watt. Brach, Herr and Gonzalez have been very good in the pen; Brach is leading the organization in saves.

Finally, the defense is good, especially in the outfield. Both Decker and Robertson played some centerfield last year and both can really throw. Tekotte is very good in center and makes many plays appear much easier than they are.

2) Last year in Eugene, Dan Robertson broke the all time Northwest League hitting record by amassing 114 hits in only 73 games and ended with an amazing .377/.443/.497 line. Yet he was a 33^rd round pick, so many of scouts and fans were unsure whether it was a fluke, or if he might be the real deal. I know Fort Wayne isn’t the best indicator of MLB success but what is your opinion on Robertson? Is he someone that you can see succeeding at higher levels?

John Conniff: It is a long way from Fort Wayne to the big leagues and most people can find many reasons why Robertson won’t make it, but then again most the same people doubted he would have the success he is having now. Regardless of what anyone does or does not think about him he’s performing and is going to keep getting that chance until he demonstrates that he can’t.

Defensively, he has speed and is a natural center fielder that has the arm to play right field as well. At the plate he has some pop, but what most impressed me was his understanding of situational hitting and forcing the pitcher to throw something he didn’t want too. In three games I didn’t see him have a single bad at-bat and he has a very quick short swing.

3) Sticking with the outfield theme what are your impressions of the other two outfielders in Fort Wayne, Jaff Decker and Blake Tekotte? How do they look defensively? Are the Padres viewing Decker as almost solely a left fielder now?

John Conniff: It’s easily the best defensive outfield that I have seen the organization put in the field since I’ve been with Madfriars. Decker can really play either corner and Tekotte has everything you want to see in a center fielder. All three of them move and throw very well.

4) With 3/5 of Fort Wayne’s April rotation gone (Latos, Schmidt, and Bass) and another one (Musgrave) being sent to the pen, the Tin Caps have had to greatly adjust their rotation. They are now being led by Stiven Osuna and Simon Castro. I know Madfriars thought a lot of these two going into the year. Have they lived up to expectations? You had the chance to see both of them pitch, how did they look, and what is their best pitch?

John Conniff: Castro has tremendous upside. He’s a legitimate 6’5” with a fastball that sits in the low 90’s and can touch 94 to 95. He has a good slider, but the big advantage for him is the development of his changeup, which is especially devastating when you throw as hard as he does. He is still has a ways to go in terms of consistency, but he has a chance to be very good.

Osuna relies more upon change of speeds and location. He was their best pitcher in the AZL last year and his catcher Robert Lara claims that since he has come back from the bullpen, with a few mechanical adjustments, he’s a different pitcher. Throwing changeups in fastball counts and essentially not missing with his location.

5) Is there any player outside of the top prospects that we should keep an eye on? Is there any player(s) who is playing a lot better than their stats might indicate? Anyone playing worse *cough* Dykstra?

John Conniff: I saw both Kyle Blanks and Cedric Hunter when they were in Fort Wayne and Jaff Decker is head and shoulders above them. Great looking swing, very advanced idea of what he is trying to do at the plate and an underrated all around player. Additionally, I think he’s a plus corner outfielder defensively.

Drew Cumberland looks much better at short than he did last year. The Padres got him to separate his arm a little more from his body which has increased the strength of his arm and its accuracy. He’s also put on some weight and is starting to really drive the ball.

Dykstra is an interesting case. If you listen to the Padres he’s getting called out on many bad calls by inexperienced umpires. There have been certain adjustments to his swing and a wrist surgery that set back from his off-season preparations. They think he’s still going to be able to hit, but others who aren’t affiliated with the big club have their doubts, especially with his swing and ability to make solid contact. The positive side is he still has a near .400 OBP, but he’s slugging less than .400 and when you are straddling the Mendoza Line for the whole year it’s tough not to be disappointed and put a positive spin on it.

To his credit he’s taking extra batting practice and working as hard as they will allow him. Additionally, he doesn’t hide from anyone and answers every question that you will ask him and takes full responsibility for his performance.

Bonus Round

I feel justified as this isn’t a question pertaining to players, but Fort Wayne opened a new park this year. What is your impression of it?

John Conniff: A great park, easily the best in the system. It’s helping to revitalize downtown Fort Wayne and the park seats a little over 8,000; which means nearly every seat is a good seat. The park plays pretty fair, but is slightly skewed towards pitchers.

Also I like the new logo.

Next Month: Eugene

by Ben Davey

On the second leg of the Madfriars.com tour we caught up with senior writer John Conniff as he made his way across the Padres system to Lake Elsinore.  John was in Lake Elsinore in late May and we got his impressions of some of the more notable prospects on the Storm this year.

1) Coming into the year Madfriars had two members of the Storm rotation, Jeremy McBryde and Wynn Pelzer, in its Top 20 prospects, with the other three, Jeremy Hefner, Cory Luebke, and Corey Kluber also getting praise.  What was your overall impression of the rotation after watching them in person?  Did any pitcher(s) stand out?

John Conniff: I got to see Luebke twice and McBryde in the seventeen inning marathon, which means I also, saw about everyone in their bullpen. The pitching coach and manager Carlos Lezcano are very high on Pelzer; they even believe he could eventually become a #1 or #2 starter. I’m not sure about that, but so far his numbers are very good; particularly in going deeper into games. I was very impressed with McBryde from what I saw last year in Fort Wayne, he mixed his pitches much better and his main pitch, a very heavy sinker that comes in the low 90’s is compared to trying to hit a bowling ball.

Obviously Luebke looked great in the two starts that I saw, he was not the typical Padres soft tossing lefty we usually see at this level. He has good fastball command and nice slider and seemed to be the pitcher that Grady Fuson was raving about at the beginning of last year.

2) Who is Lance Zawadzki? Last year he seemed to play second fiddle to Cumberland till he got hurt, and coming into this year was not ranked as a top prospect. Is he a legit “5 tool prospect” at shortstop? Defensively does he look like he can stay at short?

John Conniff: Actually he just missed our Top 20 and I had him rated as one of the top sleepers in the system.

http://padres.scout.com/2/848225.html

He has the potential to become a five-tool prospect, but right now the offensive side is much more apparent than the defensive skills, although he did look much better than he last year in the field. He has a very strong arm, good range but right now his hands, especially when compared to Beemer Weems who receives the majority of time at shortstop, don’t seem to be as fluid as you would like to see in a shortstop. Offensively the switch-hitting Zawadzki has a very smooth swing from both sides and his power has really shown up this year, he’s leading the Storm in extra-base hits.

I think he will stay in the middle infield, as far as shortstop I think the jury is still out. I do know the Padres are going to make him prove he can’t play shortstop, because if he can that bat could be special at that position.

3) You got a chance to see Bryan Oland, what was your overall impression of him? Will he be a guy that we see in San Diego in a few years? Also was there anyone else in the Storm bullpen that pleasantly surprised you?

John Conniff: We liked him quite a bit last year; he was in the running for our pitcher of the year. He’s a big guy that throws a pretty consistent low 90’s fastball to go along with a big split- fingered change. He’s made the most of his opportunity to close with Jackson Quezada, who was the closer last year for Fort Wayne, being injured. The coaches on the Storm said that what was the most impressive thing about Oland is anytime and in any situation he has the same demeanor and approach, he just goes after hitters. I do like him in the future for San Diego because he is not someone that relies upon a trick pitch or has an over reliance on a changeup, he has stuff to get people out.

In the bullpen no one really stood out, although Aaron Breit’s stuff, when he is on, is always impressive.

4) In last year’s draft the Padres selected two third baseman, Logan Forsythe and James Darnell in two of the first four picks. Forsythe was injured early while Darnell, despite signing late, tore up Eugene. However this year Forsythe got the nod to start in Elsinore over Darnell. What was your impression of Logan Forsythe? Finally, would you still pick Darnell over Forsythe as a top prospect?

John Conniff: He only played twelve games last year, and nine were on a rehab assignment in the AZL, so there wasn’t much to go on. However, Denis Savage, the publisher of Madfriars, did see him in the Instructional Leagues and spring training and was impressed.

In the three games I really liked what I saw. Whenever you talk to the Padres’ organization they are always pushing the professional hitter concept, someone who knows the strike zone and waits to get their pitch; and when they do it goes somewhere. Forsythe is the prototype of this theory; he was constantly getting himself into hitters’ counts and even when he was behind was still able to put a good swing on the ball. He had a good month in April and a better one in May, especially in terms of power. Defensively his arm can be a little erratic, but he has nice hands and fields the ball cleanly. If he maintains his current pace he could become our Player of the Year.

As for being rated over Darnell, ask me next month after I’ve seen him in Fort Wayne.

5) Last question, what did you think of Brad Chalk? Does he have enough offense to reach the majors? What current ball player would be a good comparison for him? Reggie Willits?

John Conniff: He has more speed than Willits and is another guy that has really improved from last year; he’s putting much better swings on the ball and driving it. He’s not going to be a home run hitter, but you are seeing many more balls being driven into the gaps, he’s one of the leaders in the Cal League in triples. Defensively he has good speed and takes solid routes, his arm is average.

Offensively its fun to watch players that are successful at this level, but it’s hard to project at the major league level until they take the big jump to AA. I liked the progress that I saw from Zawadzki, Chalk and Yefri Carvajal from last year, so they are definitely on the right path.

Next Month: Fort Wayne

by Ben Davey

John Conniff is the senior writer for Madfriars.com, a website that covers the San Diego minor league system. Each year Madfriars visits all five of the Padres minor league teams.  They don’t go to the AZL and sit in the Phoenix heat for midday games; they are dedicated, but not crazy.

We caught up with John after his recent trip to San Antonio and got his impressions on the AA Missions and what prospects could eventually make their way to San Diego…

Madfriars had Cedric Hunter listed as their #1 overall prospect but 15 games into the year he is just hitting .222 with 0 HR and only 1 SB.  I know 15 games aren’t close to a whole season but did you notice any differences between his approach at the plate and in the field he also has 2 errors?

John Conniff: When I first saw him in Fort Wayne in 2007 I noticed he always had a rather complicated swing that relied on quite a bit of movement before he got into position to hit. It’s been cleaned up, but there are still a lot of things going on which makes him vulnerable to off-speed pitches, which there are much more of in the Texas League. The San Antonio coaches and Cedric are aware of it and trying to make adjustments to go along with the buzzard’s look he has been having at the plate. I look for him to bounce back, but remember this is the biggest jump in the minors because there is a huge gap between A ball and AA.

In the field he looks the same, he’s very smooth with a solid and improving arm. He can get a little lackadaisical at times, especially when he is in left field where one of the errors occurred.

One of your biggest critiques on Luis Durango was that despite the great speed he never really used it to steal bases (last year 15 SB in 23attempts).  15 games into the season this year he already is 10 of 11 in stolen base attempts, is Durango finally turning the corner and becoming a top prospect?

John Conniff: I think he is. One of the biggest improvements is the increase in arm strength and he is taking much better routes to the ball. He has improved so much that the team is putting him in center field a few times a week, something they wouldn’t have done last year in Fort Wayne. Offensively, he is being much more intelligent when he runs and at the plate what really separates him from other hitters is his hand-eye coordination and ability to lay off bad pitches. Even though he’s from Panama he kind of reminds me of a Japanese hitter the way he can move both of his feet when he is in the box and still make contact. And as everyone knows, he can really run.

3) How did Mitch Canham look behind the plate?  Offensively he has really been the Mission’s best hitter but his defense was always the biggest flaw.  Any improvements over last year?

John Conniff: He still has a ways to go, but the Padres are being very diligent about working with him. Before every game he is catching multiple bullpens and going through all kinds of individual catching drills with Terry Kennedy, the Missions manager and former major league catcher; and this is in addition to lifting weights, BP, meeting with pitchers and the pitching coach, ended by squatting for nine innings behind the plate.

Remember he only started to catch in college, so he’s pretty new to the position. One thing Kennedy did say to me was that he was impressed not only how hard he is working before the game but that he wants to be a catcher; he doesn’t just see it as a place for him to get his at-bats. At the plate he’s been impressive, more of a gap-power hitter than someone who is going to put the ball over the fence. For a comparison, he’s ahead of Hundley offensively at this stage in his career, but far behind him defensively.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see him really improve defensively this year; he has the physical ability and desire.

4) How has the bullpen looked, was there any reliever that really impressed you, or any reliever that you were disappointed in other than Britton?

John Conniff: The closer Scribner has been impressive and after a rough start Mike DeMark has thrown well. DeMark, who was the Madfriars.com Pitcher of the Year in 2008, is really a great story, former position player signed out of the Independent Leagues that has really come on. The key success for him was finally getting a changeup to go along with his mid-90’s fastball and a good slider.

5) Finally, what was your take from San Antonio?  Any particular player really impresses you that we should keep an eye on?

John Conniff: Eric Sogard impressed me as much as any player that I have seen at the plate. In the three games I saw he didn’t have one bad at-bat and saw an average of around 6 pitches an appearance. He drove the ball, laid down a perfect bunt and seemed to have a very good idea of what he wanted to do at each at-bat. The big knock on him is if he has the range to play second, but he looked pretty good in the series that I saw. People that see him all the time describe him as much more steady than flashy, but to me he seems like the perfect number two hitter.

If he keeps playing the way he is now, which I think he can, it’s going to be tough for Antonelli to hold him off.

Next month: Lake Elsinore

Madfriars covers Padres prospects in great depth throughout the year.  Recently they released their list of the top 20 Padres prospects.  The list includes an in-depth analysis of each prospect ranked.  Mad Friars has been kind enough to answer our questions about their list, the Padre’s system, and prospects in general.  This is the final part of our interview…

John Conniff:  I think his future with the Padres is at second not only because that is where he has the most value but arguably the team’s greatest depth is in center with Macias, Hunter and Tekotte. I’ve always liked Antonelli as a player and I think the best thing for him this year is to go to Portland and put together a few good months.  Just leave him alone and let him play. 

Denis Savage: I think there has to be an asterisk on this one.  When I spoke on this, I was looking at the glaring need for a center fielder within the system and at the major league level. There was no Jody Gerut at the time. I love Gerut, by the way. Having seen Antonelli briefly in center, I don’t think he can adjust to it quickly enough. To be blunt, he didn’t look good. At this point, keep him at second base. We have already asked him to make a position change once. There are other options that weren’t here a season ago. 

As for the bat, it will come around. Antonelli will be starting for the Padres next year and in subsequent years. 

You list Wynn Pelzer significantly higher on your list than most others who follow Padre prospects have him ranked.  What do you see in Pelzer that separates him from the other “Non-Latos” pitchers in the Padres’ system?

John Conniff: He keeps the ball down low with a hard two-seamer and he competes.  He led the Wizards in ERA last year and his coaches really rave about him, especially his ability to make adjustments. 

Denis Savage: I will go out on a limb – one of many I find myself standing alone on - and say that Pelzer will have more success at the major league level than any pitcher – outside of Portillo – in the Padres minors today. 

Pelzer is special. He has a terrific two-seamer. His slider is a plus-plus pitch. His changeup has a change to be a plus pitch after making huge strides in his first season throwing it – and he got rid of a split-fingered fastball that was a definite plus pitch that was second only to Latos’ knuckle-split in terms of how good it was.  

The important thing is he bought in to what the Padres are trying to accomplish in full.  He took instruction and applied it on the field better than any prospect last season. We have just touched the surface of how good he can be. 

What puts Cedric Hunter ahead of guys like Kyle Blanks and Kellen Kulbacki, who both appear to be better hitters? How big a factor does speed and defense play in Hunter’s future projection? 

John Conniff: I thought you could make a pretty good argument for any one of the first five to be the top prospect. I looked at it this way if Latos was healthy for the full year, then he’s the top guy. I’ll take anyone that is 6’6”, 215 and throws in the mid-90’s with control and the potential to be a number one starter.  

Hunter led the minors in hits, showed some gap power and played a very strong centerfield.  To me, he seems like the perfect fit for PETCO, a guy that can not only hit the ball into the gaps, but go get it as well.  He was the most advanced and still has some potential for power, but more of the gap variety than for home runs. 

Decker had an amazing year in the AZL, better than either Blanks or Hunter when they were there.  He not only showed great instincts at the plate, but is much better defensively than given credit for.  I’m usually not as high on players who do this in the short-season leagues, but right now he seems to do everything at the plate the Padres want.  He waits for his pitch and when it is there really does something with it.  

The only negative on Kulbacki really is that has performed in spurts, not really over a full season, but what he did over a three month period last year he was the most dominant player in the system. I’ve always liked Blanks, but until recently the Padres really didn’t have much interest in putting him anywhere other than first, and in the long run I like AGon more than Gigantor.  Part of it also is that I see his swing as much more of one designed for contact than raw power.  Again, he’s very good but there are quite a few mixed opinions on him. 

Denis Savage: When we compile our combined rankings, we do so with a lot of debate. John and I have unique perspectives that make it work and balance each other out.  

I had Blanks ranked first and believe he is the top prospect. John contends that if he is limited to first base, his value is diminished. He has a point.  I say that if we trade Blanks because he is a first baseman and we get a prospect who plays shortstop back – is the player received our top prospect? Probably. And then the debate really starts. We have learned to play much nicer with each other through the years but do get heated looking to champion ‘our’ prospect. To me, what Blanks did at his age was astounding. I am still fighting for him to be the top guy.  

On the other hand, Hunter is a terrific pick too. The way we see it, Hunter will always hit. He may not have the homers some would like or the speed others would covet, but Hunter reminds me of a Howie Kendrick. He can hit .330 in the big leagues and do damage. There is no player I would rather have up to bat for the hit-and-run, to move runners over, to drive in runs. He makes people pay by hitting the ball hard. I don’t think people realize how good he is already. His defense is sound. His speed, really his first-step quickness, needs work. 

Kulbacki, on the other hand, has a few more questions. There is no denying the monstrous numbers he put up with Lake Elsinore but we also have to look at slow starts in each of the past two seasons. He needs to have a good start to this year to propel him up the list. 

Also, what kind of impact does age have on the rankings? How much difference does a year or two make in terms of a player’s prospect status?

John Conniff: Age will always have some affect on a ranking; obviously a 19 year old that is tearing up the MWL is more impressive than someone that is doing it at 23.  However, it’s also important to realize why someone is at a certain level.  For example the reason David Freese was at Lake Elsinore for the full season in 2007 was that Chase Headley was above him at San Antonio and the Padres weren’t that keen on promoting Chase to a bad Portland team in AAA.  Freese could have handled the Texas League by mid-season at the latest, but there was nowhere for him to play. It was not a reflection upon his ability and he proved it by making the jump to AAA last year with the St. Louis system. 

Finally, how do you weigh the five tools when evaluating prospects? How important is each tool, relative to each other?

John Conniff: It’s important, especially at the lower levels because it gives you an indication of what someone has the potential to do.  Now whether they can do it on a consistent basis is another question.  To me the biggest thing to look at is the ability to control the strike zone, which is OBP for hitters and the K/BB ratio for pitchers.  If hitter doesn’t know what a strike is or is not at this level, the majors will be very tough.  The same goes for pitcher, you have to be able to throw strikes consistently because if you are always pitching in hitters counts you are going to get hit.

Denis Savage: All five tools are taken into consideration. For hitters, power and average are at the forefront. If they have plus speed, however, power is less important. Defensive tools are also important, especially when you consider the defensive expectations at Petco Park. 

A hitter with more than one plus tool and the potential for other plus tools is always coveted. When you find several plus tools, it generally shows. Carvajal has the potential to have four plus tools. Jaff Decker might only have three but his three outweigh Carvajal’s because he has proven he can supply production with those tools. Blanks has three tools that are considered plus and his power could be a plus-plus tool – with a potential rating of 80 on the traditional 20-80 scale. That is important to note. It isn’t just the tool but the current level of the tool and projection of the same tool – often two different numbers. Now, can the player meet that projection? This is where the fun really begins. 

On the pitching front, the tools we are looking for vary and aren’t simply specific to the effectiveness of their pitches. Velocity, movement, control, location, variance of speed between pitches, holding runners, and the quality of the pitches themselves. You can have the best slider in the world but if you can’t throw it for a strike than it is useless.  Jeremy McBryde made a statement last year in closing the gap between the level he was at and his ceiling (or meeting the projection on his tools). He still needs to throw the changeup more but even that pitch was vastly improved.  Wade LeBlanc does everything so well and has a changeup that rates as an 80 on the scout scale. A plus-plus pitch is worth a lot of points since a pitcher may only need three pitches to succeed.  Ivan Nova has three plus pitches but has further to go with them to reach his top potential. Steve Garrison might not have the true plus pitch but each offering is solid and his location, movement, and speed variance allow for success.

Madfriars covers Padres prospects in great depth throughout the year.  Recently they released their list of the top 20 Padres prospects.  The list includes an in-depth analysis of each prospect ranked.  Mad Friars has been kind enough to answer our questions about their list, the Padre’s system, and prospects in general.  This is part 2 of our interview…

The Padres have drafted pretty heavily towards college players recently. What do you think of their overall draft philosophy?

John Conniff: That is a tough question because the baseball draft is so much different from the NFL or NBA drafts in that we really don’t know all the options that they had in front of them, and again we see ourselves more as reporters than pundits.  Throw in the fact that you are trying to project what a player will become in several years, as opposed to next year for football and basketball. 

Personally, I would like to see the team take a few more flyers on high school players in later rounds and get a little younger, but in doing that there are several different variables that arise.  How much do you have to potentially overpay someone to get them into your system?  Does a player not only have the talent but are they mature enough for the demands of pro ball?  I think Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus said it best, drafting high school players is like picking Tech stocks, most times they aren’t going to pan out, but when they do it’s a big payday. 

Denis Savage: I am not sure it is fair for me to judge.  I am not out on the fields scouting the talent they are.  This goes back to our philosophy of seeing players with our own eyes.  I will say I would not have passed on Rick Porcello – but I saw him pitch five times in high school and thought he was the best player in the draft. I would have paid anything he asked for. Of course, that is easy for me to say when it isn’t my money. While I admit I like some projection and the ability to hit a homer, you can argue both ways. I believe it has worked well for them, especially when they infuse young talent from Latin America to supplement what they accomplish in the draft. The two really go hand-in-hand. You can bid high on young talent there to add to the stable of high ceiling prospects while adding top college talent that have shown the ability to produce over a consistent period of time. 

On the other end of the spectrum, in 2008, the Padres opened a state of the art baseball academy in the Dominican Republic.  A few months later, the Padres spent $5 million on international prospects, including the highly touted Adys Portillo.  While a consistent commitment to signing international prospects will surely improve the Padres system in the long run, how long will it take to see the benefits at the major league level?

John Conniff:  I think it was a good move but also keep in mind everyone is in Latin America.  Also we just discussed how difficult it is to select the right high school player imagine looking at players that are 14 or 15 years old, deciding whether or not to sign them at 16 for a substantial sum of money, then send them off to rural America to be maybe one of ten percent that will actually make it to the big leagues; and that is a tough job. 

Denis Savage: As I touched upon earlier, it may take some time. Just two years ago, not a single prospect from Latin America was on the 40-man roster. Now we are seeing some of those players reach that level. They are starting to hit the mid to upper levels now but most of those kids are relievers. Two years from now, I believe the Padres will have a stable of talented players from Latin America littered through the system. Simon Castro will be close to the bigs. Portillo will be close. Carvajal will be close. And there are many more that will be infused at each level with varying degrees of talent.  

As a prospect evaluator, how significantly do you weigh what the players do before and after games, compared to their actual performance in games?

John Conniff: Quite a bit. It’s one of the reasons when we go to games you will see us out there around one or two for a seven o’clock game. We want to see what they are doing during BP, fielding drills, who are doing extra work with the coaches, weights, etc. Basically the more you hang out around the park the better idea you have about what is going on.   

Denis Savage: Everything has its place. It is no coincidence that Dan Robertson thrives when the lights turn on because of his terrific approach during pre-game practice.  His makeup – and there are many like him – and intense work ethic allow the game to slow down when things are on the line. That definitely has a place in the evaluation process. I think of ‘after’ games as the offseason. Again, this is a crucial component of success. A lot of players will say they want to be make it, but it is those that act like it by doing the necessary work in the offseason who thrive. Such preparation is visible. Chase Headley was a prime example of a player that took the offseason to heart and did everything ever asked to become a better prospect.  Each spring, it was evident he delivered on the promises he made to the organization. 

How big of a factor are injuries when making the rankings?

John Conniff: Somewhat, but in the end the rankings are about trying to put the players into a type of hierarchical order about whom will eventually have the most value to the Padres.  We try to take a variety of factors into account but in the end it’s about who has the highest ceiling and the best chance to achieve it. 

Denis Savage: Huge. If a player misses a significant chunk of the season, we don’t rank them. In fact, we generally eliminate those players from consideration before ever starting on the rankings.  How can we rank Nick Schmidt based on seven innings at Fort Wayne? Can we justify ranking Euclides Viloria, a very talented lefty, when he missed all of 2008? When they are coming back from injury, things have to be taken in context.  Cesar Carrillo had the stuff prior to injury, but you always have to wonder whether it will come back. He is a top five talent when healthy. Coming back from major injury, he has questions to answer. John and I have done well in developing what questions every prospect must answer and health is the one thing that is so hard to determine. It is like taking a shot on Mark Prior. His stuff is so good when healthy – it is my belief that you would be an idiot if you didn’t take a flier on his potential. It may not pan out. Injuries are the greatest mystique of all. The good news is that recent history has shown that injuries are not as detrimental as once thought. A lot goes to a player’s mental makeup and drive. 

Will Inman is a player who has put up consistently good statistics in the minors, but many scouts are dubious his unusual pitching motion will fool big league hitters.  Do you believe Inman is destined for the bullpen where he can better surprise batters, or can he be successful as a major league starter?

John Conniff: He led the Texas League in strikeouts, but also walks.  Keep in mind he was only 21 last year and the Padres were still doing quite a bit of tinkering with his motion even during the year. The big about him is velocity, when its up it makes his curve and changeup that much better, when its not, then they all come in around the same speed and are either off or get hammered.  My guess is they will send him back to San Antonio this year to try to achieve more consistent mechanics as a starter.  If he can repeat his mechanics on a more consistent basis, he has a chance to be in an MLB rotation. 

Denis Savage: It depends on Inman’s ability to command his pitches. He changed arm slots this past year and the velocity was up but command was down. It became a mental thing for Inman – tell a player he has to throw more strikes and he ends up walking the world. 

Inman has the pitches to be a starter but could do very well in relief. I prefer him as a starter because he can pitch through a lineup with his deception and stuff and still be tough to hit. Really, if you take away the walks, Inman had a terrific year. Even when hitters put wood to the ball, they aren’t making a lot of hard contact. I like that in my starter. Location will be essential for him. Until he proves he can’t, keep him in the rotation. 

Some have suggested that even though he has an unorthodox body for the position, Kyle Blanks’ athleticism could allow him to play left field.  Is Blanks as an outfielder realistic, or is he limited solely to first base?

John Conniff: It depends who you talk to in the Padres’ organization.  Until the beginning of this year they were pretty adamant that they wanted to him to just concentrate on first.  We spoke with Grady Fuson recently and he told us that they are going to take it slow and have him take a few ball in the outfield before games and go from there, but then again Fuson has always asked this question in the past, “is Blanks a good athlete for his size, or a good athlete?” 

He may get his answer this year. 

Denis Savage: I honestly don’t know. Having never seen him in the outfield, it is hard to predict how he will react when the ball is lined over his head. I think he has the athleticism to play out there, personally. I think he would be a better fielder than Jack Cust – who might be the worst fielder I have ever seen make it to the majors. In my estimation, Blanks’ bat is special enough that you have to try. This kid has to be in San Diego’s future plans. His bat has to be in their lineup. Do whatever it takes to make it work. You have to remember that he is a solid defender at first base. He borders on being a plus defender.  We should all hope he can make the transition. Him and Adrian Gonzalez back-to-back in the order would be dangerous.

by Myron Logan

Tom Tango (aka Tangotiger) runs the Tango On Baseball Website and Inside The Book blog. He co-authored The Book – Playing the Percentages in Baseball, which you can purchase through his blog. Recently, Tom was hired by the Seattle Mariners as a consultant. It’s safe to say that he’s had a great influence on how I view baseball, and I think many others would say the same thing. I thought it would be fun to ask him some questions, and he graciously took the time to answer them:

Friar Forecast: You’ve mentioned before that Bill James and Pete Palmer were very influential to you as a baseball analyst. Who are the Bill James’ and Pete Palmer’s of today?

Tom Tango: Rather than comparing to them, how about I mention their successors?  MGL, Dan Fox, Tom Tippett and Keith Woolner are probably the most prominent. There are plenty others certainly.  Those were the first that popped into my head.  There are alot of hidden gems like Andy Dolphin who is their peer, but wasn’t as visible pre-The Book.  I’d also think that someone like Sean Forman would be a successor, but he has chosen a path toward data presentation rather than data analysis, which, in the big picture, is a good thing for him, and all the budding analysts out there.

FF: Since you started your involvement in sabermetrics on the internet, how far do you think sophisticated analysis has come in major league front offices? Has it paralleled the advancement on the ‘net, or was it behind or ahead, to begin with?

TT: I think there is a desire for the MLB front offices to parallel or be ahead, but the likelihood is that (up to) 30 teams can’t possibly match the efforts of thousands of analysts all limited by nothing other than their creativity.  And, I would say that would be true even if you take the top 30 quantitative analysts out of the pool.
  
FF: In recent years, there’s been a lot of advances in baseball analysis, specifically in areas like fielding and PITCHf/x. Can we get any more accurate with hitting stats? How much can something like HITf/x or Hit Tracker change our perception of hitting stats?

TT: HITf/x will actually help more with fielding and pitching, more than anything.  We’re not going to get much more advancement with hitting. We’ll get some, but HITf/x will help with pitching and fielding the most.

FF: Staying with the advancements, what kind of impact did the first full year of PITCH/fx, a pitch tracking system introduced by SportsVision and MLB Advanced Media, have on baseball analysis?

TT: PITCHf/x produced the data that we’ve always wanted.  I’ve always maintained that the gold is in the pitch data.  I think what it did is inspire a new generation to what it can actually deliver.  When you see the charts that all the bright PITCHf/x-ers are generating, it crystallizes what it really can do.

FF: Fielding analysis has always kind of been the holy grail of sabermetrics.. There have been a lot of improvements over the years, but is there still room for additional accuracy?
 
TT: Yes, certainly.  HITf/x will help us there.  If you try to model the reality, it’s a question of where the fielder is positioned, and how long does it take for him and the batted ball to intersect.  Everything we do is about inferring what we really want to know.  HITf/x will deliver some of that.

FF: What kind of new breakthroughs, similar to Voros McCracken’s DIPS back in the early 2000s, can we possibly expect in the coming years?
 
TT: Most the breakthroughs will be centered around the pitch- and battedball-level data.

FF: It seems we’ve reached a point where there are enough brilliant people working on projection systems, that they’ve all kind of log-jammed in terms of accuracy. What kind of new information, or new methodology, can be added to put one in front of the pack?

TT: Most effort should be spent on the depth charts, and on guys with less than 2 years in MLB.
 
FF: You’ve always contended that scouting, contrary to what some would think, is indeed part of sabermetrics. How much faith do you have in your Fans Scouting Report and do you plan on running any similar projects?

TT: The Fans Scouting Report is perhaps the research project I am most proud of.  All the other stuff I’ve done really is secondary to that.  Fans have tremendous insight (and bias!), and that needs to be accounted for.  I’ve run a few “Wisdom of Crowd” projects (Scouting Report, Clutch, Community Forecasts).  One that I’d like to do is get Fans to record fielding plays on a real-time basis.  Hittrackeronline.com does something similar with HR and some batted balls.  My idea is along those lines.  You get 100 fans to record the same play in real-time, and you should get an accurate read as to what really happened.  Indeed, the crowd-decision on everything that happens should supplant even the official scorer, if the necessary quality controls were in place.  Think of something like a Amazon feedback system, but where the “most trusted” voters get more impact in the overall totals. And the “trust” can be earned by how well they mimic the crowd in normal situations.  The interesting thing would be what would happen if you had a trustworthy voter who votes in extreme cases different from the crowd.  Is that insight or bias?  There’d be so much we can learn from such a project.

FF: Sticking with scouting, how would you advise fans to weight stats and scouting when evaluating roster moves and players?

TT: For fielding, give scouting the equivalent of 2 years of weight.  For pitching, give scouting the equivalent of 1 year.  And for hitting, half a year.  So, the more actual MLB performance you have, the less you need scouts.  At the same time, if a player is hurt or coming off an injury, it will be the scout who will tell you how much to listen to the scout. What I would prefer is that scouting be about scouting, and not about explaining how someone could have hit 30 HR or actually hit 10 HR. Performance analysis and scouting observation should be mutually exclusive.  The GM, acting as a defacto sabermetrician, should be the one who combines the two.

FF: Is there any area of baseball research that you wish you could spend more time on, but for whatever reasons haven’t?

TT: Yes, PITCHf/x.  But, I will be spending time on it this year.  I’ve got so many databases on so many different aspects, that I’ve been putting off PITCHf/x work because I know that, once I start it, it will consume me, forcing me to put everything else on the back burner. This is what happened when I worked with hockey.  The play-by-play data produced was so extensive that it consumed everything I did.  And I loved it. 

FF: You were recently hired as a consultant with the Seattle Mariners. How fun has that been? Has it been different from your past experiences in baseball and hockey?
 
TT: It’s been typical among baseball.  Hockey was a different animal because I had to do alot of the data gathering myself, acting almost like Retrosheet.  It was fairly exhausting.

****

Big thanks to Tom for taking the time to answer these!

I was fortunate enough to be able to ask Chris Long, Padres’ Senior Quantitative Analyst, a few questions on the Padres’ recent amateur draft. You may remember Mr. Long from around these parts, as he answered some of my questions earlier this season about his role with the Padres. Once again, big thanks go out to Chris for taking time out of his busy schedule for some draft talk.

****

Friar Forecast: We discussed it a little in our last chat, but can you describe to us your role in the draft process?

Chris Long: My primary role is in the analysis of college players to determine which are the most likely to develop into legitimate prospects.  That one sentence spans a broad and deep spectrum of techniques and creative possibilities.  My secondary role is the broader area of general draft analysis, including the best way to incorporate scouting and medical evaluations. Much more difficult, much more interesting.

FF: What’s your role as the draft is actually taking place? When the Padres are on the clock, is the pick basically decided, or does it sometimes go right down to the wire?

CL: Our strategy is determined before the start of the draft, so I’m more of an observer at that point.  However, deep in the draft, when nearly all of the players of interest are gone, I’ll occasionally get asked about the remaining players.

FF: The Padres have put a heavy emphasis on selecting college players over the last few years. By my count, the Pads only took 6 high schoolers in the ‘08 draft. Can you explain the organizational philosophy a bit in this area?

CL: You have much more information about college players, so they’re more projectable.  There’s a consequence here that you need to be careful about, however.  The posterior distribution will be tighter for a college player than for a typical high school player.  That is, if you have a high school player and a college player that both have the same likely average level of professional performance, the college player will be less likely to be a flop, but also less likely to be a star.

FF: You’ve got more data, both from a scouting and statistical perspective, on the college side, right?

CL: The top high school players typically get seen about as many times as the top college players.  We have high school statistics of course, but the main problems are the sample sizes are small, the level of competition and parks unmeasurable, plus the players are younger and developing far more rapidly.  They should ultimately be used, but there will still be a large amount of fuzziness. Jaff Decker is one example where high school performance was too good to be ignored (something around a 2200 OPS).

FF: In analyzing the numbers of college players, can you tell us a few of the things that you try to adjust for?  It’s hard enough projecting the future of major leaguers; how do you go about doing it for 21 year old college players?

CL: It’s well known that the two major areas are park effects and strength of competition.  D-I schools will occasionally play D-II, D-III and NAIA schools, so you also need to account for this.  All told, that’s hundreds of schools and parks, plus tens of thousands of games.  This is one of the reasons my workstation has 8 CPU cores and 20 gb of ram.

FF: Has there been any progress on fielding statistics in college, or is that basically 100% scouting at this point?

CL: You’re only getting the most basic data, plus fielding statistics are notorious for requiring lots of time to converge.  Scouting evaluations, together with some notion of speed, is the best most teams are going to do.

FF: Outside of the Padres’ picks, were there any players you really loved, who the Padres didn’t (or couldn’t) draft for whatever reasons?

CL: There were many very good college hitters this year - Alonso, Smoak, Wallace, Posey, Beckham, Cooper, Komatsu, Thames, Giavotella, etc.

FF: Alright, everyone wants to concentrate on the first pick. Tell us a little about Allan Dykstra, the big first baseman from Wake Forest.

CL: Dykstra is a great college hitter.  He hit well every single year, and his final appearance in the Cape was excellent.  His advanced understanding of the strike zone, coupled with his raw power potential, were an intriguing combination to several teams.  My nickname for Allan, incidentally, is “The Shortest Path” (a triple entendre).

FF: Dykstra stands at 6-5, but after that, as Geoff Young has noted, the Padres took a few (relatively) shorter players. What kind of role does size play in projecting a player’s future performance?

CL: Height certainly does have an impact on future power potential, but frame is even more important.  As an example, consider Kellen Kulbacki. It’s also not as critical for middle defenders (SS, 2B, CF).  You might want to take another look at the size of those players, incidentally, they’re not all that small.

FF: Reading various blogs/web sites, a lot of people seem impressed with Logan Forsythe and James Darnell, a couple of third basemen taken 46th and 69th, respectively. Can you tell us a little about them?

CL: Both are players I really like.  Forsythe has a great understanding of the strike zone; his power isn’t outstanding, but his defensive flexibility makes him a very interesting player.  Darnell also has a solid understanding of the strike zone; he strikes out more than Forsythe, but he also has more power.  Comparatively, I’d say they’re similar in value as prospects out of the draft.

FF: Dykstra plays first and those two guys play third.  In making selections, how much consideration is given to who is currently playing the player’s position on the big league club (Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff, of course) and to the positions of top prospects (like, say, Blanks and Headley)?  A lot can happen in three or four years, right?

CL: Very little this year - we recognized that there was an unusual amount of value in the college hitters this year, and targeted them on the first day of the draft.  Generally speaking, you should primarily draft for value, but of course you need to keep in mind that they all have to play somewhere in your organization, so you need to be careful that’s you don’t run out of minor league spots.

FF: Okay, I won’t ask you about every player ; ) How about the rest of the draft, in general?  Any sleepers you really like in the later rounds?  How much do you think the Padres improved, as an organization, through this draft?

CL: From Day 2 keep an eye on Beamer Weems, Robert Musgrave and Dean Anna. Assuming we sign all of these players, I’m as excited as I’ve ever been. It’s really a great group of hitters, and some very good pitchers, as well.  It’s unfortunate that our fans don’t get to see and appreciate the process involved.  It’s really amazing; participating in the draft has been one of the great experiences in my life.

****

ed. note — I formed these questions a while back (before the Dykstra issues, the Forsythe injury, etc.), so if a few of them seem a bit funky, well, that’s why.

Chris Long, Padres’ Senior Quantitative Analyst, was nice enough to answer a bunch more of my questions (part 1 is right here). We started with some followups to the last set and then we got into a bunch of other areas. Hope you enjoy reading his responses as much as I did!

Friar Forecast: You mentioned that you didn’t have any experience in the field when you took the job with the Padres.  Did you read up on sabermetrics in your first few weeks on the job or did you just take your pure statistical knowledge and kind of go at it from scratch?

Chris Long: This is a deeply philosophical question.  It’s a question of whether you want to be good, or if you want to be great. If you’re satisfied with good, you can achieve that by understanding what other people have done.  To be great, you need to be able to develop new approaches, new ideas, new methodologies.  It’s an artistic, creative but very painful process.  This is something you naturally tend towards as a child, when you go from trying to understand how things work to trying to make things do something entirely new and different.  This approach has worked well for me throughout life. Initially with discovering some new things in theoretical mathematics, later with designing algorithms to solve (and win) puzzle contests, and now, hopefully, with baseball. 

You’ll rediscover some known ideas along the way, but you’ll understand them on a far deeper level than you would otherwise.  You do need to consider the approaches that other people have taken for a more complete understanding of the problem and solutions, but it’s better to have at least made a serious attempt to solve the problem yourself beforehand.  To paraphrase the movie Big Trouble in Little China, shake the pillars of heaven.

FF: One of my readers mentioned Paul DePodesta.  He is certainly one of the most famous “statheads” in the game.  Do you work closely with him?  In general, do you do a lot of your projects independently and then consult with others in the organization after, or is everything kind of a group project?

Chris Long: Paul, along with Josh Stein and Jeff Kingston, are the people that I interact with the most in Baseball Operations.  My office, in fact, is between Paul’s and Josh’s.  My technical strengths are on the mathematical, statistical and programming side, so that part of what I do is necessarily independent.  But we’re all constantly discussing new ideas and approaches. What makes Paul special and sets him apart is not his appreciation for statistics, but his appreciation and understanding of the game of baseball.  If you appreciate and understand baseball, you should be naturally driven towards analysis as a way to understand (and appreciate) the game on an even deeper level. He’s smart, he’s competitive, and he wants to win as much as anyone I’ve met in baseball.  He’s shaking the pillars of heaven as hard as anyone.

FF: You mentioned the draft as one of your favorite areas of work.  I imagine it’s much more difficult trying to analyze so many different players facing such a variety of competition in many different environments (not to mention the fact that many of them still have a lot of room to grow as players).  What makes the draft so fun and what are some things you do to analyze these potential major leaguers?

Chris Long: What’s so amazing about the baseball draft, and I’m sure the draft in other sports, is the sheer number of players to consider.  Different ages, sizes, polish, playing environments, growth potentials, levels of competition faced, ability components, injury tendencies, and it goes on. Then there’s the information you get from the scouts.  Which scouts are better?  Are they looking at the right players, in the right way, the right number of times?  What’s the best way to integrate all of the information you have? Overlaying all of this are considerations of finance, utility, need, risk and the poker game of the actual draft.  Draft the right player and he could be worth $50 or even $100 million in value to your club (see Pujols).  Draft the wrong players and you’ll waste millions and negatively impact your club for years.  It’s an extremely difficult, messy, noisy, and thoroughly insane problem to work on.  It’s beautiful.

FF: Do you work on high schoolers at all or just college kids?

Chris Long: While you have less information with high school players, you still need to have an understanding of the value of the information you’re getting from your scouts, and how the relative risks and possible returns between potential choices compare.

FF: Are you involved in integrating what I’ll call scouting data (pitch speeds, mechanics, body size, time running from home to first, etc) and more traditional numbers (hits, home runs, runs allowed, etc)?  Or do you work more with the traditional numbers and use the scouting-based data separately?

Chris Long: If you aren’t looking at *all* the information you have, and trying to extract the absolute maximum amount of value from that information, you aren’t doing a good job.  Hopefully that answers your question.

FF: I imagine one of the main goals of statistical analysis in an mlb front office is to project a player’s future performance. Can you tell us a little about how you analyze a player’s past performance to gain insight about what you expect out of his future?

Chris Long: I can’t go into specifics, but again, you need to integrate *all* the information you have about a player.  Not just what he’s done, but where and how.  Did something change? Was it luck?  A simple projection system that’ll outperform almost every human (on average) is fairly easy to build. Building a system that outperforms those systems is harder, but consequently more interesting.

FF: The Padres play like 90+ games in two of the most extreme parks in baseball (Petco, of course, and Coors).  Do you enjoy that added challenge or would you rather they just played in a cookie cutter ball park?  Can you use Petco to your advantage?

Chris Long: I like the variety, and I’m sure most fans do, also.  This is one thing that really separates baseball from other sports. Football fields, basketball courts and hockey rinks are all basically the same, but baseball stadiums each have their own unique personality.

FF: Khalil Greene has really struggled hitting at home in his career.  Do you think there’s something in the way he puts the ball in play that causes that or is it just randomness (or something else)?

Chris Long: He has a 270 BABIP at home, and a 306 BABIP away.  PETCO’s BABIP last year was 280, the rest of the NL averaged 306; in 2006 these were 280 and 303.  So he’s a little unlucky there, but not much.  He strikes out a lot, doesn’t walk at a high rate, but hits for power.  That’s really the worst combination for PETCO.  Pitchers throw more strikes, because the outcome of a BIP is likely to be less damaging. So while Khalil has been a little unlucky, it’s really the interaction of his hitting approach, the ballpark, and how pitchers pitch in PETCO.

FF: The Padres were 189 for 209 throwing out base stealers last year.  How do you divide that between the pitchers, the catchers, and the base runners?

Chris Long: For catchers it’s primarily the catch and release time, combined with the amount of time it took the ball to travel from the start of the pitcher’s motion to the arrival of the ball.  For pitchers it’s primarily determined by the total throw time, and runners get the remaining piece.  Chris Young will always give up a lot of stolen bases because of his size, but these aren’t very costly because of how well he pitches. It’s an area we looked at in the off-season, and we understand how it affects us.  You should see some improvement this year.

FF: Many people are still skeptical of advanced fielding statistics, although they are seemingly much improved.  Any thoughts on fielding analysis that you can share with us?

Chris Long: At the major-league level, the current best fielding analytics are much better than humans at determining fielding ability and value.  It’s not even close.  The great thing about something like this is that if you understand what your method is doing, you’ll have a better understanding of what to look for when watching that player in the field.

FF: On that note, have you developed proprietary metrics for hitting, base running, pitching, fielding, etc.?  Do you also rely on other stats already published on the internet or elsewhere?

Chris Long: It shouldn’t be a surprise that we’ve worked on all those areas.  It’s always useful to see what other people have done.  If they get answers that differ significantly from your own, you need to understand why, and if it indicates a significant flaw in one or both of the methodologies.

FF: Many analysts on the internet have made great use of the pitchf/x data provided by mlb. Can you share anything along those lines that you and the Padres might be utilizing?

Chris Long: It’s an area that’s been looked at, but it’s relatively new, and system isn’t installed in every park, and there are still some issues with calibration.  But it’s exciting.

FF: What do you think is the future of sabermetrics/statistical analysis in baseball?  What are you looking forward to working on over the next 3 or 4 years?

Chris Long: More sophistication, better understanding, greater integration, wider acceptance.  Then the robots kill all humans, but hopefully they’ll still play baseball.  There are some absolutely amazing possibilities in the near future, certainly analytically, but also in other areas.  That’s completely void of informational content, but the best I can do.

FF: How about this Padres club going into 2008?

Chris Long: We’ll definitely be competitive in the NL West this year for the division title.  The players we’ve drafted are really starting to show some promise, and should start doing some damage at the major-league level; I’m particularly looking forward to Chase Headley getting some playing time.  Kevin Kouzmanoff and Scott Hairston are two players who could really break out this year, too.  And what’s not to love about our rotation and bullpen?

FF: I have kept you long enough and you’ve been gracious enough to put up with me. Any final thoughts you want to share with fans of the Padres and/or sabermetrics?

Chris Long: San Diego should be proud of this team, not just the players, but everyone who works for the Padres.  Our goal is to be the smartest organization in baseball, and with Kevin Towers and Sandy Alderson at the helm, we’re well on our way.  We’re shaking those pillars, and we can’t be ignored.

***

Thanks again to Chris for being so gracious with his time and so in-depth with his answers. I wish him the best of luck in the coming season.

(Part 2 is right here)

Chris Long’s official title on the Padres’ Web site is Senior Quantitative Analyst. Since he was gracious enough to let me pester him with a few questions, I will let him explain the rest:

Friar Forecast: Tell us a little bit about yourself. How did you get into this position with the Padres?

Chris Long: I had just finished graduate school, where I had studied statistics, mathematics and biostatistics, and I passed copies of my resume along to nearly everyone I knew.  A copy eventually made it into the hands of the owner of the Padres, and he was looking for someone with my background.  He happened to be in my area for an MLB owner’s meeting, and so I had an impromptu interview with him, the president and the CFO of the Padres.  Low pressure!

FF: When did you start to discover the relationship between statistics and baseball?

Chris Long: After I was contacted regarding a potential job.  The Padres were looking specifically for someone who didn’t have any preconceived ideas.  I *was* a baseball fan, I hadn’t spent any time working in the field statistically, and I had an unusual background that was strong in several areas.  I was expecting to work for a company like Google, RAND or Decode Genetics in Iceland.

FF: How would you describe a typical workday with the Padres? How does it change as the season changes focus from the draft, to mid-season, to the free agency period, and so on?

Chris Long: There really isn’t a typical workday.  I’m always working on a large number of projects at any given moment, but of course which projects I’m working on will vary depending on the time of the year.  The draft is my personal favorite, incidentally. My top two for 2005 (among players with a realistic chance to fall to us) were Ellsbury and Headley, and it’s nice to see them develop over such a short period of time.  I nearly cried when Headley got his first big-league hit.

FF: What is it like working with such a diverse, intelligent staff in San Diego?

Chris Long: It’s fantastic to exchange ideas and approaches with the people here, and it’s great how well they tolerate listening to my crazy suggestions. No matter how skilled or creative you are, it’s always beneficial to talk to other people.  And, in fact, necessary for personal growth. I’ve even started to work on some projects with people outside of the Padres, with the goal of publishable works, for exactly this reason.  I’m always open to project proposals.

FF: From your perspective, how are both statistical and scouting data utilized in the Padres front office? Is the divide between stats and scouts overblown by the media/blogosphere?

Chris Long: Both are utilized, of course, to varying degrees depending on the situation.  I can’t say too much about what we do, but it’s obvious that you can only use scouting data for high school players, but that for major league veterans you could do very well using only statistical information.  It’s not an either/or choice, of course.  You’ll get the very best results if you have a deep and complete understanding of the value of your scouting and statistical information, and how best to combine the two. The goal is to make the best decisions based on what you know and what you believe to be true.  So the divide isn’t really about which data to use, but about understanding how best to utilize and integrate the data.  Anyone who ignores one side or the other isn’t doing a very good job.

FF: Do you keep tabs with sabermetric websites such as Baseball Prospectus, The Hardball Times, The Book Blog, etc …?

Chris Long: I do try, but I can get quite far behind in my reading, depending on my projects at any given moment.  There’s some really great stuff that does get written, so I do make a real effort to read as much as I can.  I also need to keep up with developments in the areas of pure and applied statistics as well as applied mathematics.  Between the web, books, papers and journals, the demand on your free time can get absolutely brutal, but it’s something you need to do in a competitive environment.

FF: What do you think is the main difference between what you do with the Padres and what is being done on the ‘net?

Chris Long: Much of what you see on the internet, which interesting and entertaining, isn’t necessarily applicable to actual baseball decisions.  It’s cool to read about how Babe Ruth would have hit if he was a member of the 1986 Mets, but it’s not particularly relevant to the 2008 Padres.  I believe people would be genuinely shocked at how sophisticated the analysis within some clubs has gotten.  Whether or not it gets used, however, is entirely a separate issue.

FF: On a related note, do you ever find yourself reading any of the major Padres blogs or message boards to see what the fans are thinking?

Chris Long: Definitely!  I love to see what our fans have to say after I think we’ve made a particularly good trade, or if we just won a great game. Everyone loves a little confirmation bias now and again.

***

I couldn’t say thanks enough to Mr. Long for allowing me to do this. It was a truly an honor. I will let him get back to his job for a while, but I may try to catch up with him again sometime down the road to discuss the amateur draft (his favorite), this current Padre club, and a few more sabermetric topics of interest.

Finally, a big tip of the hat to Tangotiger for helping me get this off the ground.