by Ben Davey

Continuing with my outlook at the full season minor league teams, we are now at AA San Antonio Missions.

Last year the Missions made the playoffs by the skin of their teeth (winning the 1st half) but were quickly sent packing. They finished exactly at .500 (70-70), but never showed signs of the dominance that you would like to see. Many of the “top prospects” from the 2009 team either had a disappointing year (Hunter, Carrillo) or were injured for nearly the entire season (Kulbacki).

The 2010 staff will feature a surplus of great pitching sent from Lake Elsinore, and a shot at redemption for a few quality prospects. If players can stay healthy 2010 can be a big year for the Missions.

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by Ben Davey

Madfriars released my list of top 30 prospects on their site today. My list is slightly different from many of the other prospect lists because I have not bought into the Tate hype. I actually ranked him lower then both Sampson and Williams.

My top 5 were as follows
Jaff Decker
Simon Castro
Kellen Kulbacki
Aaron Poreda
James Darnell

One other interesting thing to note is that there were probably 20 names I considered for the top 10 and about as many names of players I have seen make other “experts” top 10. Combine that with the fact that of the top 30 only 2 (Poreda and Huffman) have any chance of making the team out of ST, and you see a list that is poised to move up even higher in the rankings, especially with another top 10 draft choice.

Madfriars will release their combined top prospect list at the end of the month, and we will concurrently release our interview with them on rankings, philosophy, and the new direction of the front office.

Also did you guys notice that apparently I look just like Denis Savage?

by Ben Davey

Bill Center wrote a recent article in the UT listing the UT’s top 15 Padres prospects for 2010. While I am aware that rankings are extremely difficult and can change drastically from one expert to another, my problem was not  that the UT gave rankings, but that they were not the UT’s or Bill Center’s. In fact they were a “consensus.” Bill Center writes “Based on results, potential, and proximity to the major leagues, here is a CONSENSUS of the Padres’ top prospects.”

I wonder, who is this consensus? Could it be Baseball America? What about Madfriars (insider article)? Or John Sickles? What about Tops? So I figured just looking at these 4 I would develop an actual consensus and see how they stack up.

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by Ben Davey

In case anyone didnt see this Hacksaw, MLBTR, and a few other sources are saying the Padres sent 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff to the A’s for former Padre Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham. I guess a prospect is also being sent the A’s way but I will take a wild guess and assume its not going to be a top prospect. Maybe someone like Chad Huffman or a low level prospect

To me this is a good move by the Padres. Adding Hairston and Cunningham to the OF rotation will help out a lot defensively (especially considering no more Headley in the OF).  Also we already know Scotty can help offensively which will hopefully make up for the loss of Kouz.

I dont know much about Cunningham, but he seems to draw a lot of comparisons to recently DFA’d outfielder Eric Byrnes. He has not had much success playing limited time in the majors the past 2 seasons. He is only 23 (turns 24 in April) and put up .309/.382/.493 averaging about 25 SB and 20 HR for a full season. Baseball Reference has him playing all 3 OF positions, mainly RF and CF the past couple years.

Just based on the little knowledge I know of the prospect and of course of Scotty I think its a good trade by the Padres

More links Bleacher Report
SF Gate

by Ben Davey

As a special Christmas treat this year I thought I would post my 2010 preview of the Lake Elsinore.

If you have never been to a Lake Elsinore Storm game before…BUY YOUR TICKETS NOW. Okay, well not now as they are not currently on sale yet, but if you have never been to a minor league game before, and live in southern california, this is your year. Not only can you purchase behind home plate seats for $10, but the Storm also have great promotions such as Thirsty Thursdays, Friday Fireworks, and all you can eat Tuesdays.  Of course the best reason of all to see the Storm this year is that they will be featuring a majority of the 2009 Tin Caps roster, that had had the best record in ALL OF MILB! First game is April 8th, Padres will play at Lake Elsinore on April 2nd.

Continued after the jump…

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by Ben Davey

Sorry for the delay in getting this out, but here it is.  The rotation sould be great with the rotation led by Samspon, Fetter, Reyes, and Sullivan.  However, the big problem is going to be middle relief.  WIll Fort Wayne find a way to bridge the gap from the starters to Erickson.

by Ben Davey

When I read mb’s weekend links like many of you I saw the 2010 Padres ZIPS projections for the first time.  The pitching was about right, “ok” starting rotation and stellar bullpen.  Offense though was a different story.  No Padre starter was expected to hit over 270 (sorry Salazar and your .271 projected BA).  K numbers were up, BB were down, and it looked like a regression from every player on the Padres.  Now I understand the sophomore slumps and all that good stuff (plus I am still not high on Venable), but thought that as a whole the rankings were too low offensively.

A Few days later, playing around on fangraphs, I noticed that Bill James rankings were also out.  His however painted a MUCH rosier view of the Padres offense.  5 of the Padres 8 projected starters (Headley, Kouz, AGon, Cabrera, and Eck) will hit .270+, and offensive numbers from the 2nd year players looked a lot more hopeful.  The other interesting thing was that despite this the W/L record projected for pitchers was actually worse for Bill James then it was for ZIPS.  Plus James did not have a projection for Mat Latos or Mark Worrell (but oddly enough he did for Greg Burke). It looks like despite a poor offense, ZIPS has us right around .500 (maybe a few games above), while despite an improved offense James has us at a few games below.

Anyway here is the offensive comparisons for a couple of key players for the 2010 team as well as a few pitching comparisons as well.  Which one is more realistic, or is it somewhere in the middle?

by Ben Davey

Last year I started going team by team and predicting who would end up where for the 2009 season.  Last year I was right on most of the placements, although I don’t know how many people would have thought that Forsythe would leapfrog Darnell and go to Elsinore.  I had originally planned to start with the Beavers, like I did last year, BUT truth be told I have no idea whats going on with the AAA/Padres roster.  Hopefully with the Rule V draft, the winter meetings, and maybe a trade or two that situation will become a bit clearer.  Until then lets start at the bottom with the first full season minor league team: The Fort Wayne Tin Caps.

Looking at the potential roster this team can be every bit as good as the 2009 Tin Caps team, which  won more games then ANY other team in minor league baseball, and won a MWL championship.

Outfield: The Padres spent their first 2 picks this year drafting speedy athletic outfielders, Donovan Tate and Everett Williams.  While it would be an easy prediction to say that both will be patrolling the Fort Wayne OF in April, it saddly will not be a reality.  After missing all of the 2009 minor league season, Tate once again was withheld from playing this time in the instructional league, and eventually had surgery to repair detached connective tissue in his pubic bone (ouch!).  Donovan Tate will be ready to go by Spring Training, but chances are he will remain behind in extended ST at least to start the season.  We might very well see him in FW in either May or June, but not in April.  Williams on the other hand stayed healthy, played in the AZL, NWL, and instructs, and should be ready to ditch the warm Texas/Arizona sun for the cool temps of Indiana.

So who are the other 2 starting OF?  With Everett starting in CF, I have to look at down in the AZL for the RF.  Rymer Liriano was named one of the top 20 prospects in AZL and did pretty much everything right last year.  He hit .350/.398/.523/.921 while contributing 44 RS, 44 RBI, 8 HR, and 14 SB in just 50 games.  He is also a great fielder with a cannon for an arm.  Liriano’s biggest problem is strikeouts.  That said, while he did post a staggering 52 K in 50 G, the Padres brass should be encouraged by his improvment throughout the year.  In June he posted a .333 OBP with 13 K in 7 games.  July = .406 OBP, 25 K in 23 G.  August = .414 OBP, 14 K in 20 G.  So while he might still be a big strikeout hitter, he is improving a deserves a spot in Ft Wayne.

Last but not leas,t who will be in LF?  My guess is Bo Davis.  Before his injury he destroyed Eugene similar to Robertson in 2008.  He hit .329/.468/.479 with 11 SB, 19 RS and 16 BB in 20 G.  This will give Fort Wayne an OF of 3 CF (again similar to last year with Robertson, Tekotte, and Decker).  We might also see either Cody Decker or Nate Freiman see some time in LF.  And of course we will see a back up OF with Codrolli and possibly either Matt Vern or Griffen Benedict

Infield:
3B:  Well the easiest of the placements this year is the starting 3B of the Tin Caps…Edinson Rincon.  Rincon was named the 2nd best prospect in the NWL this year and will only get better.  For a Dominican prospect Rincon has great patience at the plate.  However like most Dominican prospects Rincon does still have a problem with the K numbers, but definitely has the upside to do great things.

SS:  This is a head scratcher.  Originally I thought this was an easy position.  Jonathan Galvez hit .295/.399/.503/.902 in the AZL.  Combine that with 14 SB, 6 HR and 45 RS in 52 G.  Like Rincon, Galvez is also an extremely patient hitter with 30 BB in 52 G.  He doesn’t turn 19 till Janurary and has a bright future.

BUT, then there is also Jeudy Valdez.

Before last season Tampa Bay asked for Valdez in return for Jeff Niemann.  In hindsight maybe it was a trade the Padres should have made, but it just goes to show you how other teams value him.  Anyway, Valdez has played mainly 2nd but with Belnome more than likely a fixture at 2nd, Valdez might get extended time at short.  Valdez struggled in Fort Wayne while battling injury.  Valdez did play extremely well during his rehab assignment in the AZL.  With Cumberland and Figureoa taking charge of 2nd and short in LE, Valdez will stay in Fort Wayne at least to start the year.

2B:  Despite being a 28th round pick Vince Belnome was arguably the best hitter in the NWL (along with Rincon).  Rincon got called up to Fort Wayne and batted cleanup during their championship run.  Between 2 levels he hit .321/.444/.519/.963 with 10 HR, 57 RS, 54 RBI, and almost as many BB (56) to K (60).  Belnome will be the lynch pin in the middle of the lineup.

1B:  Cody Decker and Nate Freiman will make a powerfull 1-2 punch at 1st (and DH).  Decker was the AZL MVP and Madfriars

hitter of the year.  He hit .354/.421/.717 in AZL.  While Freiman hit .294/.364/.484 in Eugene.  Neither really made anybodies top prospect list but if both can put up close to their numbers that they posted last year, they might turn some heads.

C: Emanuel Quiles and Jason Hagerty will share the duty next year in Fort Wayne.  Quiles could possibly be the best defensive C in the Padres org, but still has a lot to prove offensively.  Hagerty on the other was the Padres 5th round pick but struggled in Eugene.  Hagerty only hit .225//335/.399/.734 last year (which sadly was still a higher OPS than Quilles).  It will be interesting how they play next year.

Final starting lineup:
Everett Williams CF
Jonathan Galvez SS
Vince Belnome 2B
Cody Decker 1B
Rymer Liriano RF
Edinson Rincon 3B
Nate Freiman DH
Emanuel Quiles C
Bo Davis LF

by Ben Davey

All has been quiet over here on Friar Forecast for awhile, and I blame mb, and possibly the rest of the contributors for having lives.  Anyway, I have been busy finishing up my top 30 prospects for madfriars, and that will be posted on here in a few weeks.  So for right now, I am busy pretending to not be sick, and instead of getting that whole “sleep” thing that people always suggest I figured I would do the next best thing….blog about the Padres.

I begin by starting with a universal truth, that we Padre fans hold evident or however that saying goes…”Eckstein is not the answer.” I know, go figure 34 year old 2B with limited range who hit .260/.323/.334 with only 2 HR on the season is not the answer.  So if Ecksein is not the best option for the future 2B of the Padres who is?  While some Padre fans might argue that the Padres next 2B should come from outside the organization, the prospect of that looks grim.  The Padres could spend money and give away prospects to acquire Dan Uggla, or take a flyer out on Kelly Johnson since he lost his starting job in Atlanta, but it would be hard for me to see either of those scenarios happening. So, like most of my posts, I see the Padres 2B of the future coming from within, and I offer up to candidates for the job…Eric Sogard and Lance Zawadzki

Eric Sogard is a 23 year old prospect drafted in the 2nd round in the 07 draft.  In 2008 he was both a mid season and post season Cal League All Star, and recognized by BA as a HIgh Class A All-Star.  This past year he continued his all-star streak by being named to the Texas League All-Star Game.  Sogard is the type of guy that does all the little things to help a team win.  He is a great contact hitter (striking out about 1/11 PA last year), more walks than strike outs, good BA (around .290-300) high OBP (.394 last year 370 this year), and is arguably the best hitter in the Padres system at moving runners.  Sogard is a doubles hitter, but has the power to hit 5-10 HR a year while stealing around 10 bases as well.  Also, arguably the strangest stat, is that while everyone else on the Missions, had great road numbers and horrible home numbers (a lot of comparisons of Wolff Stadium in SA to Petco) Sogard actually hit better .320/.406/.436 at home than on the road: .267/.335/.366. He is an ideal #2 hitter, and the type of player that a lot of us believe we need to have in order to win at Petco….small ball with good mechanics.  Sogard is limited defensively in both range and fielding, but has been something that the Padres’ brass have been working extensively to improve.

Best case scenario he is a .300/.380/.400 guy, who is the ideal #2 hitter to move Cabrera over for the big guns.  Average defender similar to Eckstein.
More Than Likely Scenario:  Still a good contact hitter but hits closer to .268/.345/.360, still has the eye and ability to move runners over and work the count.  A bit below average defensively.

Lance Zawadzki: Is a 24 year old prospect selected in the 4th round of the 2007 draft.  Zawadzki is a very interesting prospect as he arguably the closest to 5 tools as anyone in the Padres upper minor leage levels.  Zawadzki has a strong arm and is more than capable to play at either 2nd or Short.  Offensively he is a switch hitter and has the ability to hit anywhere in the order.  He has the speed (28 SB last year and 17 this year) and OBP (.369) to bat at or near the top.  He has the power (15 HR last year) to bat further down in the lineup.  His .283 career minor league BA and .792 career OPS suggest that he is a legit prospect up the middle.  He as the ability to be a dominant player at either the minor league or major league level, the big thing with him is consistency and cutting down a bit on the strikeouts (101 and 103 the past 2 years).

Best Case Scenario:  .285/.365/.440 with the ability to be a 20/20 guy at the MLB level
More Than Likely Scenario: .260/.340/.400 10-15 HR/SB.  K’s are still a problem but no where near the degree that Khalil had.

So take your pick, do the Padres want consistency, a solid #2 hitter who can get runners over and in, great contact hitter who hits for a fairly high average….OR the potential 5 tool prospect, better defensively, pretty good BA/OBP/SLG but more K?  Its hard to ignore Zawadzki’s potential and not make him the front runner, but Sogard just does so many things right that it would be difficult not to see him on an MLB roster even if it in a reserve role.  Both will more than likely go the hitter friendly PCL, and it will be interesting to see what type of numbers they put up. If one or both of them put up great numbers, could we see Eckstein traded or moved to the bench mid season?  Whether it is mid season, late season, or 2011, I think 2nd base will be another position that the Padres will be able to fill internally with young promising prospects (and hey if one faulters the other can step up….or we might see the resurgence of possibly DOA Matt Antonelli)

Ok 1:30 time to quit ignoring this stupid cold…As always go Padres!

Oh PS:  Zawadzi was named an AFL All-Star and will be in the game tomorrow..err later today

by Ben Davey

Obviously I am not talking about money, and yes I know that it is the middle of October not mid-July; but even with all that aside reports still persist about the Boston Red Sox trying to go after Adrian. But the biggest question is can the Red Sox offer enough to the Padres to make trading AGon worth their while.

In July rumors circled that the Padres were looking for a 4-1, 5-1 deal in exchange for Adrian. Jon Heyman of SI.com reported hours before the trade deadline (via twitter) that the Padres were seeking Clay Buccholz, Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson, Ryan Westmoreland, and Lars Anderson. Of course one of the main reasons this deal did not get done is because of Boston’s hesitation to give up Clay. But without the addition of Clay or Lester do they have enough to throw at the Padres to make it worth giving up our cornerstone player?

Looking at the other players offered, Masterson is not even with the Red Sox anymore (part of the Cliff Lee trade), Lowrie hasn’t proven to be a MLB starter (even though he is still young and has some potential), Anderson was named one of the most disappointing prospects of the year by BA, and even then he is a 1B which the Padres do not need with Kyle Blanks taking over the position if AGon is traded. Westmoreland is an interesting prospect but was also in the NYPenn league (similar to Eugene) this year and is a ways away.

So, so much for that deal. IFFF, and that is a big IF, the Red Sox want to get Adrian from the Padres, they would probably have to give up a majority of their once #1 ranked minor league system. Now looking at it, not only would the Red Sox have to give up Buccholz but they would probably have to give up Tazawa, Reddick, and Westmoreland, and even then I wouldnt be sure the Padres would be willing to give him up.

As a Padre fan are the names listed above enough to sway you away from AGon? Is there anything that Boston would/could reasonably offer to get Adrian? Personally, unless they want to offer us Lester and 2 mid level prospects I say pass. With all that being said, why are we still hearing Adrian to the Red Sox rumors? If anyone is traded this offseason it is probably Bell and or Kouz/Headley. IF Adrian is traded it would have to be a team like Tampa, Atlanta, Texas or Cleveland, who have the prospects to make it worth the Padres time. I’m not suggesting that they do try and trade Adrian, but rather they would have to look at a team that has more to offer then one really good pitcher.