Make it 3 years in a row now for Padres top minor league SS Drew Cumberland. Drew fractured his left patella while sliding into the 3B railing chasing after a foul ball in Thursday’s game. The fracture will more than likely require surgery, a stiff brace, and then a lot of physical therapy all of which would put him out for 6 months. Luckily he should be healthy in time for ST next year.

Tough break for Drew and for the Padres.

Baseball is Americas past time because its relaxing, competitive, and fun. Anyone could play baseball, and, it never mattered if you were overweight, crippled, short, tall, etc… give em’ a bat and a glove and you could play in your yard for hours on end. Best of all you could then go home or to a stadium and see your favorite player do the same exact thing. It was fun, and the all star game was like the world series. Even if your team was in dead last and destined to lose 100 games, you could still watch YOUR teams player square off against the best of the best. I could think of no better memory then a game 12 years ago in Coors.

12 years ago the all star break had me glued to the TV. The All star game was in Denver, and I remember watching sports center after sportcenter where all they talked about was the Coors field effect, and how the balls just sail over the fence. The HR derby had the likes of Big Mac, ARod, Griffey, Thome, Castilla, etc… playing in the game. 2 hours before the HR derby even started I remember practicing my best Chris Berman impersonations “back, back, back, back, back, back….GONE” Sure Griffey only hit 3 in the final round and still won 3-2 over Thome, but the HR derby was exciting. The All star game (also won the by AL) became the highest scoring ASG ever. The AL blasted 19 hits while the NL had 12. That might have been the most memorable moment of the year had that not have been the year Tino Martinez struck out on a 2-2 pitch in game 1 of the World Series (oh wait!)

This years all star week on the other hand has already been arguable the most forgettable all star week already, and the game hasnt even been played yet. The only reason it might not be number 1 is because I already dont remember much about the last few years ASG aside from the fact that the AL Won (which they always do). Instead of the likes of ARod, Adrian, Pujols, Fielder, Braun, etc… we saw Chris Young, Vernon Wells, and Nick Swisher. In fact I turned on the HR Derby just in time to see the other CY hit 1 HR and Wells hit 2, then quickly turned the channel before I fell asleep. The derby used to be the place where the biggest hitters face off against each other, and sure they might have all been juiced, but it was fun to watch. Now its draw a name out of a hat and hope that someone is willing.

Even worse then the HR Derby might be the all star game. I know every year a few players decline due to injury, but this year a staggering 16 players (17 if you count Beltre) 16!! Sure a few of them are legitimately injured (Utley, Pedroia, Tulo…) but are you really going to tell me that Mariano Rivera is too injured to play? Or do you think these players might rather fake a “slight” injury and decline to play?

The MLB All Star Game was the greatest ASG of the 4 major sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL) because it was fun,and not just for the fans. Anyone remember when Tori Hunter robbed a HR from Barry Bonds and as they passed eachother at the end of the inning they started laughing? Or when Larry Walker turned his cap around against Roger Clemens? Heck, seeing Clemens face a lineup with Gwynn, Big Mac, Bonds, Chipper, etc… was worth being pumped over. David Price vs Yadier Molina, Martin Prado, and Andre Either….not so much.

Bud Selig with his “this time it counts” was supposedly designed to make the game more exciting because it gave the players something to play for. Instead it turned the game from something fun to something serious. In that 1998 game we could have seen Griffey come to the plate with a whiffle ball bat against the Big Unit and everyone would have laughed. Now, if Pujols does that against CC (oh wait hes not playing), Mariano (nope), Weaver (try again), Cliff Lee (finally), you would have people being upset because “this game means something.” Yes, baseball is a business and competition is great but not the all star game. Save that for August and September or any time a “rivalry” series is happening (and no not Padres vs Mariners). BS Bud Selig, quit changing baseball, and maybe both the fans and players can start having fun again!

John Conniff is a senior writer for MadFriars.com, a webzine that covers the San Diego Padres minor league system, and a free-lance contributor to Baseball America and 619 Sports.net. As in the past, we caught up with him to get his impressions on his second trip of the year to the short-season Eugene Emeralds.

1. Just got threw listening to the Emeralds opening day game and WOW, Sampson was a man among boys. 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K (6 GO, 2 FO). Why was Sampson not in Fort Wayne to begin the year?

John Conniff: He had a bit of a sore shoulder at the beginning of spring and they were pretty cautious with him, but I think the bigger reason is that you don’t really want to put a high school pitcher in a full season league where you expect them to throw over 130 innings.

When I spoke with Sampson in Eugene he emphasized how slow the organization was in building up his innings and also really working on his mechanics in extended. Remember everyone always talks about the difference in transitioning from aluminum to wooden for batters but for pitchers its a pretty big change too; mainly learning how to pitch inside.

2. The Padres selected a college second baseman with two of their first four picks, and yet it was 22nd round pick Tyler Stubblefield getting the nod at second with Gyorko at third and Bisson not playing. Do the Padres plan to use either Gyorko or Bisson as a second baseman, or do they plan to move them around the diamond?

John Conniff: Right now I don’t think the organization sees Gyorko as a second baseman, despite the fact that he played shortstop in college and they initially announced that he was drafted at that position and I think that is a good move. He has a thick lower body and unless he changes his body significantly I can’t see him having the range to play second. Bisson, a Canadian citizen, will get the majority of the playing time once his visa issues are settled.

3. Last year Luis Domoromo was playing in the Dominican Summer League, now he is the starting right fielder for the Ems at the tender age of 18. Castro, Portillo, Rincon, and Galvez all spent their first summer in the AZL. What did the Padres see out of Domoromo to push him to Eugene?

John Conniff: Denis is usually the guru on all things Dominican, the man would rank twelve-year olds in Santo Domingo if he could, but I’ll take a shot. It really matters on two things, the personnel that they have to work with and how far someone has progressed in the extended leagues. For example, RHP Matt Lollis, who is the #2 pitcher on the Ems right now, really impressed the organization in spring and in extended and essentially pitched his way out of the Arizona League.

Also, as the Padres sign more of their college picks and possibly bring up Donovan Tate, Domormo could be back in the AZL this season.

4. Did you have a chance to see Portillo? What is the biggest difference between the 2010 version and the one from when he first game to the US?

John Conniff: I did and although his stuff was impressive he also struggled with secondary pitches and was a little wild. Still, he’s the equivalent of a high school senior and you have to be impressed. I didn’t see him pitch last year but from what his coaches tell me is that he is throwing much better strikes, essentially hitting the corners as opposed to catching more of the plate.

5. How is the new facility? Does the front office have any objections to the use of a turf field rather than natural grass?

John Conniff: Its a really nice facility, but the old one also had quite a bit of charm too. Its funny when all of us think of artificial turf we think of those horrible multi-purpose stadiums like Riverfront in Cincinnati and Three Rivers in Pittsburgh but the turf is about as close as you can get to grass. Also, to not have turf and attempt to play baseball in Oregon would be nothing more than games in the mud.

John Conniff is a senior writer for MadFriars.com, a webzine that covers the San Diego Padres minor league system, and a free-lance contributor to Baseball America and 619 Sports.net. As in the past, we caught up with him to get his impressions on his third trip of the year to the AAA Portland Beavers.

1. What happened to Mark Worrell? He was doing tremendous than sort of ran into bad game after bad game?

John Conniff: You know its tough to tell. As you said he got off to a good start in April and then kind of ran into some bad outings. Right now he’s pretty far down on the bullpen chart in Portland with Ernesto Frieri, Scott Munter, Adam Russell and Aaron Poreda all ahead of him on the depth chart let alone in San Antonio.

2. What are the fans impressions of losing the team next year?

John Conniff: The majority of my time was in Eugene, so I was only in Portland for a game but just by talking with people around the Beavers it hasn’t been a good season. The night I was at the park, ironically the same night Geoff Young of Ducksnorts was there, but we missed each other, it was as dead as any minor league stadium that I have been too. I think its equal parts that the team isn’t going to be there next year and the other is that the team just isn’t very good this year.

3. Going into the year the Padres were raving about a guy they claimed off waivers named Dusty Ryan. Ryan is currently hitting .129 in AAA and struggling. Is he really the player the Padres hyped him up to be or is he the .129 hitting catcher that we are watching in Portland?

John Conniff: The people that I spoke with, who want to remain anonymous, believe he is the catcher that we are seeing now. One of them said he was the worst hitter that they saw in the PCL this year.

4. Every year the Padres appear to have stacked teams in San Antonio, Lake Elsinore, and Fort Wayne, and yet in the past few years the Beavers have been a wasteland for talent. The prospects that do come to Portland in years past either struggle (Antonelli, Zawadzki, Cunningham) or are gone so fast before they can really give the Beaver fans something to be excited about (Venable, Blanks, Headley). Who in Portland currently should Padre fans, and Beaver fans, be excited about? Are there any future Padre starters on that team?

John Conniff: I think there are a few. For pitchers I really like Ernesto Frieri, who has put up some pretty good numbers for a closer on a bad team. Adam Russell, who is struggling now, I think also will eventually end up in the Padres’ bullpen as well. For position players, if you give Lance Zawadzki a mulligan for April, he’s played pretty well and I’ve always been a big fan of his game. I like Luis Durrango too, but I’m not sure as an everyday player. Finally I’ve always been a big fan of Mike Baxter, who can play both corners of the infield, all three outfield positions and even serve as an emergency catcher if needed.

In many ways AAA is my least favorite of all the levels to go too because its really a place where for most players their dreams of being a major league player end. You have so many players that have major league experience that it didn’t work out for and are just hanging on. On the other side you have players that have performed well in the lower leagues, but not quite good enough to really earn a spot on a big league roster.

Most of the guys have also been doing this for three or four years and their bonuses were some time ago. Its one thing to be playing pro baseball for little or no money at 19 or 21, quite another when you are over 25 and starting to wonder if you made the right career decision.

In a year when a majority of the San Diego Padres top offensive prospects have been on the DL or struggled, one prospect has managed to put his name on the map. SS Drew Cumberland

Cumberland came into the year as the 19th best prospect according to madfriars and #16 in my rankings. The writeups were always “great young player, amazing potential, can make things happen with the bat and with his legs, shaky defensively, and starting to get the label of injury prone.” While the injuries were never related (broken bone in his hand from catching a flyball, injured ribs after being HBP, quad injury, concussion, and most recently a wrist injury that took him out of the 2009 playoffs), it got to the point that he was ranked lower simply because in 2.5 years in the Padres system he had yet to stay healthy for longer than a month or two. Well 3 months into the season and a Drew Cumberland led Lake Elsinore officially clinched the 1st half division crown tonight. Drew’s role in the game? Only 3-5, with a RS and a SB (19).

On the year Cumberland is 3rd in the league in BA (.374), 9th in OBP (.411), an even more surprising 4th in SLG (.551), 4th in SB (19), 1st in RS (61), and 1st in hits (85). As such he was named as the starting SS in the California League all star game.

The biggest boost to his status besides the health is that in 55 games he has also hit a whopping 7 HR. While that does not rank in the top 10, for a top of the order speedster SS 7 HR is more than 2x as much as he hit in the 158 career games previously.

Even considering that the Cal League is a much more hitter friendly ballpark those stats are eye popping. Cumberland has been an absolute beast offensively and has shown threw the 1st half that he can get on, steal bases, score runs, and also hit a HR if you are not careful. He has done it all.

The two game related factors that are keeping him from reaching elite prospect status are his fielding skills at shortstop and his BB%. The low BB/PA if 9.48% is extremely bad for a leadoff hitter, but it is made up for with a .318 career BA. The fielding though is still a cause for concern. In 2009 they reworked the way he was throwing the ball as the ball was tailing away from the 1B. They saw noticeable improvement, and as such the fielding percentage went up. This year however he seems like a misnomer. He has made a few great plays showing his range and arm strength diving deep into the hole to rob players, but still has problems making the everyday plays, and with turning the DP. The potential is now fully there, as he went from a prospect who could maybe stay at short to a player they think WILL be a starting shortstop in the majors. The major question is consistency. Can he make the routine plays?

Moving Forward: Drew’s prospect ranking has soared in the past few months. It would be hard to expect him to duplicate his first half success, but I wouldnt be surprised. There have been rumors, possibly only created by Mark Grant on a recent Padres telecast, that Cumberland would move to AA, but nothing has remotely confirmed the rumor. While it might be expected to see the BA go down, the OBP should hopefully go up as working the count is something they continually preach in Lake Elsinore. The defense is still a WIP, but his offense has more than made up for it. Provided he can stay healthy it will be difficult to keep him out of the top 5 next year. In fact scout.com now has him listed as a 5 star prospect, the #2 best prospect in the Padres system (Castro #1) and the #2 SS in the minors (Dee Gordon #1). Here is to hoping the kid can stay healthy and lead the team up the 15 to a well deserved Cal League championship.

Denis Savage is the publisher of MadFriars.com, a webzine that covers the San Diego Padres’ minor league system. Along with John Conniff they both visit the various affiliates throughout the season. We caught up with Denis for one of their first trips of the year to get his impressions on a team that this year resembles a T-ball team because of their youth; the Fort Wayne TinCaps of the low-A Midwest League.

1) How much of a concern is Jonathan Galvez’s defense? He committed his 15th error in only the second week of May and from listening to games it doesn’t seem like there is much improvement. Is there any chance they move him to second sooner rather than later?

Denis Savage: No way they move him to second base right now. Obviously, they will get him some reps over there, as they have with all of their shortstop prospects, but his position remains at short. Watching him play, you can see the grace in his movements. He really is fun to watch and has grown recently. Impopssible throws he tried early in the year are now being held. It is part of the process with Galvez. He has a penchant for being flashy but is really learning his own limitations and growing from that. Most of the errors are throwing errors. He understands he rushes his throws and is working towards slowing the game down. It isn’t as big a concern as one might believe.

2) The three Dominican starters, Edison Rincon, Rymer Liriano, and Galvez have all struggled immensely offensively this season. While the season is still early, are these young hitters just pressing as they enter their first full professional season? If not is there something mechanically different with their swings, or are they just being overmatched?

Denis Savage: Believe it or not, this was expected. It would be easy to say they are pressing, but the reality is that they are young players experiencing cold weather for the first time. The average temperature in Fort Wayne during the month of April was 56.5 degrees. At night, they saw 10 days where the temperature was in the 30s. By contrast, the average low in the Dominican Republic is 73 degrees in April. Being a New Jersey native, I could handle this. Now that I have been in San Diego for 10 years, I am not so sure. My hands would be like ice. Gripping the bat would be only because it might warm me up. Each time I swung, I would fear getting sawed off because my hands would go from shaking to rattling. John is more adept at swinging in the cold now; John’s problem is he can only hit a ball thrown by a third grader, underhand.

Now, pressing may actually come from this as the weather warms. If they create bad habits because of the lack of success, than your assessment later in the year will be more accurate. As of now, all three are on the right path. Rincon is still a pure hitter. Galvez is prone to having mental lapses. Liriano still susceptible to the off-speed. They have growing to do and expect the second half to prove they are capable of playing at this level.

3) With Donovan Tate, Keyvius Sampson, and James Needy all starting the year in extended Everett Williams is the only high school draftee to make it to Fort Wayne. With all eyes on him to represent the new “approach” to drafting, how has Williams looked both offensively and defensively? Is there a reason why he has only 3 stolen base attempts all season?

Denis Savage: His offense has come a long way since I last saw him. He looks like he has a clearer understanding of his own strike zone. He swings too hard at times but this kid has a feel for hitting that will only improve over time. He has natural power and smokes balls that he hits. It is pretty rare to see weak contact. And he has become a battler in working the count of late. That bodes well for his future, as his baseball acumen has made great strides in a short amount of time.

His defense was, in a word, horrific. I was honestly shocked at how bad his routes are. Remember the kid who was taken last in softball and thrown out in left field, praying no one would hit the ball to him (sorry if this was you or John Conniff) - Williams fits this description. He gave up on balls out there – got turned around several times and has a long way to go before I believe he can play a capable center field. It was the most surprising thing I saw during my time in Fort Wayne. The good news is I expect him to get a lot better. Heck, there is really no other way to go but up.

4) For the past two years the TinCaps have been blessed with an 8th and 9th inning tandem of Jackson Quezada and Bryan Oland in 2008 and Alexis Lara and Brad Brach in 2009. Unfortunately this year the bullpen looks like a hot mess. The TinCaps have used twelve different relievers already in the season, and while most of the ERA’s are respectable the TinCaps went through a five game span earlier when they blew four saves. Is there any consistency beginning to form with the back of the bullpen? If so what guys should we keep an eye on? Rafael Arias?

Denis Savage: Well, everyone should keep an eye on Arias, but he may miss the rest of the year after experiencing shoulder and elbow pain. The bullpen in Fort Wayne does have a bunch of guys who are transitioning from starting roles. That is a challenge for some. Having said that, Jeff Ibarra and Nick Schumacher deserve a look. Ibarra has a wicked slider but needs to fill out and return to health from a concussion. Schumacher has a tremendous cutter but his fastball isn’t mid-90s so his command must be on. Daniel Sarria is interesting but appears to be groomed for more of a starting role since he has as many as six pitches at his disposal. He is a backwards pitcher. I actually believe Nick Greenwood has a chance to live a long life in the majors as a lefty reliever, although he is starting today. Miles Mikolas has a new arm slot that hides the ball better and a great curveball. His fastball velocity needs to return.

5) Pitcher Dexter Carter was voted one of the Top 20 prospects in the Sally League last year. Unfortunately after the trade to the Padres he was more suspect than prospect. This year his numbers have been better, but still nowhere near the numbers that one would expect from a top prospect. Is there any reason to explain the differences in stats? Is Dexter Carter a suspect or a prospect?

Denis Savage: I saw Carter for the first time in instructs and came away thinking there is something there. I liked his breaking ball and his fastball has movement. I thought the changeup needed quite a bit of work. Carter said he has committed to throwing it and the changeup is now his best pitch.

One thing that is interesting: a lot of scouts I have spoken to say the difference in the quality between the Sally League and the Midwest League is huge. They all said it was like going from short-season to Low-A – that big of a jump. It surprised me.

Today, Carter’s biggest problem is location. He has the pitches to be successful but spotting them well has been an issue. He will also nibble rather than pitching to contact. Mechanically, he does not get a very good downhill plane, despite his size. He has this cross-body motion that he is trying to eliminate and falls off to the third base side. That messes with his command.

The second half of this season will tell us the real answer. Has he learned and adapted? He has some mental hurdles to jump over, as he is his hardest critic. It is a blessing and a curse. You have to be realistic. He has such high expectations that when he fails to reach them, it can continue to affect him into his next start. He must mature in that area.

Arguably the biggest reason for the San Diego Padres fast start is the work of their bullpen.

8 of the 10 relievers used by the Padres this season have a sub 4 ERA. In fact if you take away Ramos (21.21 ERA) and Gallagher (6.92 ERA), the bullpen ERA drops from a really good 3.12 ERA to an insane 2.03, while the WHIP drops from 1.08 (really good) to .892 (WOW). Russell, Stauffer, Gregerson, Thatcher, and Mujica all not only have a stellar ERA but also have a sub 1 WHIP. Russel, Bell, Gregerson, Adams, and Thatcher also average more than 1 K per inning. Needless to say, provided that Stauffer comes back healthy, the Padres do not need any help in the pen.

Are these pitchers playing over their heads? Yes… We cannot expect Stauffer to maintain his 0.39 ERA all year. Nor can we expect Gregerson to allow 11 baserunners all year. But that does no mean that if and when they regress to their norms that the numbers will not still be spectacular. The updated ZIPS projections still have Bell (2.31), Gregerson (2.93), Adams (3.48), Thatcher (3.18), Russell (3.49), and Stauffer (3.84 15 starts), all under 4.00.

All of this is great, and me telling you that our pen is excellent is not surprising. But what might be surprising is that extra depth that the Padres have in AAA and AA who could probably step into the pen right now and put up solid numbers. Here are just a few names that might be called up to replace members of the pen should more injuries or trades occur

Already on 40 man roster:

Ernesto Frieri: Frieri made his major league debut last September. Most Padres fans will not remember him as he only appeared in 2 G, working a scoreless inning in each appearance. MLB totals 2 IP, 0 H, 1 BB, 2 K. Despite being a starter for most of the past 2 years, with rotation depth the front office decided to make him the Beaver’s closer. Frieri has responded to the challenge by going 2-1, 1.50 ERA with 9 SV in 10 opportunities. More impressive is that in his 18 innings he has 27 Ks.

Frieri is a 3 pitch pitchers with a plus FB, with a deceptive delivery, that he can work to all 4 corners of the plate. He sits in the low 90’s but can top out at 95. His curve is a solid pitch, and in the past year has improved greatly. His change is a WIP which might have been why he was sent to the pen. He does need to improve on his walks (averaging 6 BB/9 IP), but he has big time stuff to fit anywhere from closer to long relief on a MLB team.

Craig Italiano: Italiano was acquired in the Scott Hairston deal #1. Italiano has always been known for having big time stuff, but his mechanical issues, and numbers resulting from that have always been the hindrance to his success. However, he comes over to Lake Elsinore, and almost immediately manager Carlos Lezcano and pitching coach Dave Rajsich work on cleaning up his mechanics. The result? His 5.63 ERA with Stockton turned into a 1.44 ERA with the Storm, and he averaged 12.64 K/9! He has since become the closer in an unbelievably stacked Mission’s bullpen where he has posted a 0.93 ERA in 19.1 IP with 8 SV. His K/9 are a bit down (7.0) but its hard to complain with the ERA.

Italiano sits consistently at 94 on his FB and can top out at 98. He has a power slurve that sits in the mid 80’s with tremendous movement. Like Frieri his change is more of a show me pitch to keep hitters from attempting to sit dead red. Either way with Italianos PF velocity and movement, as well as that power slurve, and he could step into the 9th inning of a Padre game tomorrow and be able to pick up the save.

Not on 40 man but WOW:

Mark Worrell: Lifetime minor league ERA of 3.01 with a 10.4 K/9 IP and 3.04 K/BB, Worrell has always had the stats to play at the next level. He was the centerpiece in the Khalil Greene deal was going to be a part of the Padres rotation. Injuries in ST in 09′ cost him the entire year. He might still not be completely recovered from the injury but has put up a respectable 1-0, 3.79 ERA in 19 inning in Portland. I was told to think of Cla (Meredith) except with more speed, so if he makes a mistake it is not an automatic HR.

Brandon Gomes- Along with Italiano Gomes was ranked as one of the top 20 minor league prospects in all of baseball (by Scout.com). A change in his arm slot a few years ago turned him from minor league fodder to MLB prospect. Gomes sits in the low 90s with the ability to top out at 94-95. His best pitch though is his splitter, which is thrown with the same exact arm action as the FB. Hitters think FB and then watch the tremendous late break of the splitter, and often flail over the top or miss it completely. Add a slider that he can throw in the mid 70’s with nice action down and away to righties, and the result was 100 strikeouts last year as a reliever! Gomes has picked up where he left off with a 1-0, 1.66 ERA, and 10.8 K/9 this season (still in AA). Like Italiano, Gomes doesnt have much left to prove at AA, and in nearly any other farm system would be getting ready to make his MLB debut.

Evan Scribner: My last entry into the way too good to be in AA goes to Evan Scribner. Scribner was the Missions closer last year and went 8-4 with a 3.07 ERA and 9.9 K/9. Outside of a stretch where Scribner blew 3 saves in 5 opportunities (in 1 week) he was nearly unhitable. I was shocked not to see Scribner promoted to AAA Portland at the beginning of the season. But like the guy that he is, he managed to take it in stride and has posted even better numbers this year. If his 4-2 record and 1.74 ERA are not good enough, than look at the 30 K in 20.2 IP and the .823 WHIP.

Scribner doesnt have as good of speed as the other prospects, consistently sitting 89-91, but he makes up for it in movement, and a tremendous 12-6 hammer. Scribner’s breaking ball is arguably the best in the organization and with a 20-25 mph difference between his FB and breaking ball he consistently make hitters look…well…like me if I were to take a swing off of him.

There are 5 names that could contribute to the Padres bullpen right now, and have great success. Even with those 5 players I could have still listed Greg Burke (2.45 ERA, 18 IP, 19 K, 0.65 WHIP), Mike DeMark (1-0, 0.60 ERA, 15 IP, 15 K, 0.80 WHIP), and Bryan Oland (0-1, 3.97 ERA, 11.1 IP, 19 K). PLUS all that is not even including every Padre fans favorite Latin American relief prospect Alexis Lara (0-1, 2.37 ERA in AA right now, best known for striking out the side in 2 innings in a late ST game this year), or Aaron Poreda (2.00 ERA and might have the best stuff of anyone if he could work on those 17 BB in 18 IP).

So with that being said, I ask one simple question. Knowing the pen that the Padres have right now, and all the depth that is waiting in the minor leagues….”If you could get a better than expected return for Heath Bell do you make the trade?” “What if you are still battling for 1st?”

On the same day that 22 year old Mat Latos threw his first CG shutout, a fellow 22 year old top pitching prospect named Simon Castro led the San Antonio Missions to only their third win in May (3-9 this month). This win has led many to look at the young Dominican phenom and liken him to last year’s top pitching prospect Mat Latos. These optimistic fans have even gone as far as saying that Castro should be on the same path to the majors as Latos. Let me make this clear, baring catastrophic injuries, and a drastic fall from contention we will not see Simon Castro don a San Diego Padres uniform in the next 3.5 months. These are different players, with a different front office, different prospects ahead of him, and most importantly a different year.

Lets just get the similarities out of the way. Both are 22 (Latos is 4 months older). Both were the #1 pitching prospect in the organization at the time. Both players skipped Lake Elsinore after obliterating Fort Wayne. Both players led the Mission’s rotation despite being the youngest member. Finally both players have #1 potential.

The single biggest factors that surround a top prospects promotion are how well the team is doing, relative strength at the position, and of course money. Last year the Padres were out of contention by the all star break and had already used 10 starters. Of those 10 starters only Peavy (traded), and Stauffer (1 start prior to ASG), had an ERA below 4. In fact the next lowest was Correia at 4.50 and Gaudin (traded) at 5.03. Needless to say the Padres were in desperate need of a starter. In addition the Padres also had flexibility in the 40 man as players like Geer, Silva, Hill, Floyd, etc… could all be DFA or placed on the 60 day DL without much of a concern. They had given other pitchers like Leblanc Geer, and Banks a shot but none were remotely effective.

Enter Mat Latos who after 4 G in Fort Wayne (25.1 IP, 10 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 27 K) was promoted to AA where he was equally as impressive (5-1, 1.91 ERA, 47 IP, 32 H, 9 BB, 46 K). So we have a team out of contention, with a desperate need for starters, other pitching prospects flailing, room on the 40 man, and Latos tearing up AA. Why not promote Latos at that time, especially since it was late enough into the season to not have to worry about Super 2 status.

This year is a different story. The team is currently in first place with the best record in the NL. In addition they are first in the NL in ERA (2.61), 2nd in BAA (.220), 2nd in OPS (.627), 1st in WHIP (1.16), and 5th in QS (17). Every starter has an ERA below 4! Castro is the #1 Padre pitching prospect (#2 overall), and was voted by scout.com as the #12 pitching prospect in all of baseball, and is currently leading the Missions and if he continues on his pace will probably be deserving of a promotion come the all star break. However, while his stats might be deserving the Padres are in contention, have crazy rotation depth (provided Stauffer recovers from his appendicitis and Correia comes back as the same pitcher after the untimely death of his brother), and do not have the flexibility on the 40 man that they did last year. Even if the Padres do begin to falter the current Padre rotation of Garland (30), Coreia (29), Richard (27), LeBlanc (25), and Latos (22) is still extremely young. Also I would have to think that if Garland is traded or someone goes on the DL there is still CY (if he is ever healthy), Stauffer (extremely deserving), Ramos, and Liz who are all on the 40 man roster and will probably have a shot before Castro.

Finally some people have mentioned that if Castro did not follow in the footsteps of Latos, than maybe his path would look more like David Price who was a September call up and helped the Rays into the playoffs and eventually WS. While this scenario is more likely, meaning Castro getting a September call up, the Padres have even better bullpen depth. Russell faced 14 hitters during his last call up with the Padres and retired 13 of them (1 walk), and yet because of depth was sent back down to the minors. The Padres have shown that the big 3 (Bell, Adams, and Gregerson) are nearly unhitable, Stauffer and his 0.49 ERA as a reliever, throw in Russell, Webb, Thatcher, Mujica, and even Ramos and Gallagher and this is one of the best pens in baseball. This isnt even considering the Padres have both the closers at AA (Italiano) and AAA (Frieri) on the 40 man and both are doing extremely well in their perspective leagues. So making the big assumption that every thing stays the way it is come September, tell me what is the point of calling up Castro if there is no place to play him? The Padres wouldnt call him up just to cross their fingers that we play another 22 inning game against the Rockies…

Despite Castro not being Latos or even David Price (talk about setting the bar low), Castro will be in San Diego soon enough. While it would have probably happened anyway, Castro will with 100% certainty be placed on the 40 man roster by November as he would be Rule V eligible. Now whether he starts 2011 in the Padres rotation remains to be seen. No matter the outcome the future looks extremely bright for this potential number starter, and while the temptation might be there, there is no need to rush.

After only twelve games it is hard to make many assumptions or judgments as to the fate of the 2010 San Diego Padres’ farm teams. One thing I can say is that at this early point in the season the pitchers are well ahead of the hitters. That said, here is a look at some positives, negatives, and other observations twelve games into the season.

Portland Beavers (5-7); 3rd place (1 GB)

Positives- Batting: Craig Cooper didn’t even make the opening day lineup. Since then has hit .375/.405/.650 while leading the team in RBI (10) and 2nd in RS (7). Too bad he is a 1B… Denorfria and Mike Baxter have also gotten off to hot starts each hitting over .370…Durango has been on base 16 times this season and has 9 SB.

Pitching: Carrillo (9.2 IP, 0.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) and Inman (10 IP, 2.70 ERA, 1.00 WHIP 9 K) are beginning to put themselves back on the prospect map while anchoring the rotation…The Beavers have 4 relievers Frieri, Webb, Worrell, and Burke each with WHIP’s under 1.00, while all having at least an 8 K/9 IP average.

Negatives- Offense: Lance Zawadzki was/is competing for a job in SD has only hit .205/.286/.227 thus far with 3 E and 15 K (44 AB). ..Cunningham and Durango have not been terrible but have not come close to the hype they deservedly received during ST. Both are hitting around .260 with a .300 OBP...Barfield was only 3-18 before being put on the DL.

Pitching: No real negatives outside of the ERAs of Leblanc (7.20) and Russel (11.57). Of course both have come to SD and been lights out.

Notes: The team is sorely missing Antonelli, as the 2B spot has not produced much of anything this year. 8 of the 12 games have been decided by the bullpen (4-4), Beavers are also 2-4 in games decided by 1 run.

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by Ben Davey

With the San Diego Padres playing in a morning road game, and the Lake Elsinore Storm hosting a home night game, what better time to go take the drive up the I-15 to the gorgeous Diamond in Lake Elsinore. Well I will answer that by saying do not leave San Diego at 4:30 pm and expect to get there before 6:40. But traffic is beside the point.

There is just something uniquely different about going to a minor league game that makes it so much different from going to a major league game. I will venture to say that it has a lot to do with the marketing. When I pulled up, almost every car in the parking lot, had either a family or a couple going to see the game. Most of them probably could not name more than a handful of players on the Storm, but they wear their gear, and they look forward to having a fun time, watching the mascots, seeing fireworks, and of course, hopefully seeing a Storm victory. If you have never been up to Lake Elsinore for a game, I highly recommend it. It is a different experience from the normal Padres games at Petco (plus its hard to beat Thirsty Thursdays)

Anyway, enough with the fluff piece, back to baseball.

Go figure, I go to a Lake Elsinore Storm game in the hitter friendly Cal League and I get treated to a pitcher’s duel… for the first 7 innings. After that, the flood gates burst open behind expert setup man Alexis Lara. A week ago Lara wowed Padre fans by pitching 2 innings in an “A” ST game, striking out the side in both innings. Tonight was a different story. Lara faced 5 batters, and 5 batters reached base. If it wasn’t for a good play on a carom by Carvajal to hold the batter to a long single, Lara would have allowed the cycle. Then, just for god measure, Schumacker came in and allowed that double to give the Mavericks a cycle for the inning. All in all the score went from 1-0 Storm to a 2-8 loss.

Before the offensive explosion by High Dessert, 1st round pick Nick Schmidt looked a WHOLE lot better than he did in Lake Elsinore last year. He got ahead of hitters, mixed his pitches well, and had hitters guessing the entire time. Making his first start of the year he was pulled after 79 pitches in 5 innings, I will not go out on a limb and say he looks like a player worthy of the lofty 1st round draft choice, but he at least is giving fans some hope that the 2007 1st round pick will not be a complete bust.

The pitcher that most impressed me though has to be Jorge Reyes. Maybe it’s because pitchers that throw a pitch and are immediately ready to throw another pitch have a special place in the hearts of fans who hate the 4 hour Steve Trachsel games. Not only did he throw one pitch right after another, I had him timed at 5 seconds between two pitches, but Reyes also had filthy stuff. Reyes pitched to the heart of the order over an inning and a third, and hitters looked anything but comfortable. Reyes retired every batter he faced, before being removed for the lefty Zack Herr.

Offensively the team is missing Padres #2 prospect Jaff Decker. I will give the hitters the benefit of the doubt that being only the 2nd game of the year, hitters are still trying to shake the rust off, and maybe the HD pitcher, Kenin Kasparek, had his stuff working for him the entire game, BUT the showing, well…looked like a Padres affiliate.

The Storm mustered only 1 run on 3 hits over the first 7 innings, and that 1 run only scored because of a passed ball and wild pitch on back to back pitches. The Storm scored their second run of the game after an excuse me swing single, an infield single (SPEED by Cumberland), and a single + error that let the run score. There were a few hard hit balls, and a couple nice plays (diving stop by the CF to rob Tekotte, and a diving stop by the 3B to rob Belnome), but as a whole the offense was not clicking the way the Tin Caps clicked last year.

Defensively there were some terrific plays and some head scratchers.

Defender of the game has to go to Cole Figureoa. In the first Cole made a nice basket catch on a flyball to RF. The RF (Carvajal) got a horrendous jump, but Cole was there to bail him out. Later in the game he made a great play on a bounding ball up the middle and flipped it over to Cumberland for the out.

Speaking of Cumberland, he did not look comfortable at all at SS. The first play of the game he pulled Dykstra off the bag, but Dykstra was able to make a swipe tag for the out. The next play resulted in Drew throwing a ball that barely got more than half way to 1st before bouncing. Later in the game he had a ball pretty much go right through his legs. Easily a forgettable game for him. After the 1st Cumberland error, the runner took off for second base. Not only did he get a huge jump on Schmidt, but Collins had one of thee worst throws I have ever seen. It nearly hit a ducking Schmidt, and ended up getting to second on a few hops.

As far as individual players, its interesting to look at their swing mechanics and listen to the type of contact they make. Dykstra for instance hits everything HARD. Each time Dykstra made contact with the ball, it flew a mile. Unfortunately for Dykstra and the Storm the mile was either foul or straight up in the air. You can tell though, that provided the timing issue is just rust, he will be a monster hitter.

Carvajal on the other hand….well what can be said that hasn’t already been said. Carvajal to me is the adult who pushes kids out of the way so he can use the batting cages and show off to whoever is watching. He has the strength, raw ability, and on paper should be able to crank one pitch after another over the wall. Instead, as it happens so often with show off guy, Carvajal fails miserably.

A few pop ups, some foul balls, and a lot of building frustration. Carvajal takes this huge swing that almost looks like a pitcher trying to square up on a Lincecum fastball, and comes up completely empty, looking horrible in the process. Finally something clicks and he shortens his swing. Unfortunately it is still Lincecum vs Latos (batting) as the shortened swing looked more like a series of jabs at the ball, each providing less and less contact. When he finally does square up on the ball, it went for an out and a foul ball, neither of which made up for the ugly swings earlier. I don’t know what it will take to get him to “click” but he has managed to quickly go from top 10 prospect, to being lucky if he is not cut in June.

I am a huge fan of both Tekotte and Robertson. They give 110% no matter where the ball is hit, and do everything they can to get on base. Of course the law of average stated that after Tekotte was denied a hit by a great diving stop by the CF, he came up to lead off the 8th and had an excuse me swing that landed over the 3B head in LF. They are tremendous defenders, and have a great head on their shoulder.

While the 2-8 drubbing looked pretty gruesome I will say this “Remain faithful Storm fans, there are quite a few reasons to be an optimistic.” Back to back starters showed us that the pitching will be there, and once Jaff Decker comes back and is added to Cumberland, Dykstra, Belnome, Tekotte, Robertson, etc… this will be a lineup to be feared in the Cal League.

And I will make a stand by my prediction that says the Storm will clinch home field advantage in the Cal League playoffs.