The San Diego Padres, along with the rest of MLB, completed the 2010 draft today. Here are the Padres first 15 picks (full list here):

Here is the full breakdown:

I classified Junior College picks as college players, although some of them have only been in college for a year. In reality, each pick is different and this is just a simple way to classify them.

Anyway, it appears the Padres had a pretty good draft here. Whitson is highly regarded for both his stuff and command. Looks like he has some room to grow and fill out. The risk of the high school pitcher – or the pitcher, in general – is well known, but Whitson looks to be a solid choice.

Gyorko and Bisson, two college second basemen, are polar opposites, but I think they both have a chance to develop into useful players. Cates, the JC pitchers, looks like a nice third round pick. Seems like the Padres reached a bit on Noel from Coastal Carolina, as there are some concerns about his size and bat, but you have to like his speed and athleticism. The middle infielder from Cal, Guinn, could be a steal at pick 334.

The interesting part of the draft, to me, came in rounds six though eight, when the Padres took three high-schoolers, and three guys with solid college commitments. Right-hander John Barbato has a strong commitment to Florida. Vanegas might be the biggest coup if he signs, rated in the low 40s by BA and PNR, but he has a “strong” to “very strong” commitment to Stanford, not an easy place to lure players away from.  Dore is committed to Florida State.

The Padres have to convince these guys to pass up an education and a chance to improve their draft status, and they will do that largely with above-slot money.  Last year, Donovan Tate got a $6.25 signing money and it doesn’t look like Whitson will be that tough of a sign (my guess, somewhere in the $2.5-$3M range). If the Padres’ draft budget is similar to last year, they should have some extra money to play around with. Hopefully they will put it to good use.

As this post’s title suggest, evaluating a draft right now, especially if you are not an expert, is basically impossible. If history tells us anything, most of these guys won’t succeed. Maybe one or two will become solid Major League ball players. At the same time, perhaps the Padres have hit the jackpot, and picked a future ace or a group of big league caliber ball players. We’ll see in five years.

Baseball America’s Jim Callis on the Padres third round selection Zack Cates:

No. 79 on our overall Top 200. Have to read your reports at baseballamerica.com so you can get info like this:

Undrafted out of an Arkansas high school in 2008 and bypassed again at Northeast Texas CC last year, Cates won’t be overlooked a third time. He spent most of his freshman season as a catcher, standing out for his strong arm and working just seven innings on the mound. A strong fall as a pitcher landed him on follow lists, and he has steadily risen up draft boards this spring. His fastball ranges from 90-93 mph to 95-97, and there should be more consistent velocity in his 6-foot-3, 195-pound frame. For an inexperienced pitcher, he has a relatively advanced changeup, which grades out as a better pitch than his curveball. His curve does have its moments, and he could have an easy plus fastball with two solid secondary pitches once he develops. His command and control still need work, but neither is a red flag. He’s a tough competitor. Cates hasn’t committed to a four-year school for 2010 and should be signable.

PNR Scouting rated Cates at 80 on their top 300 draft board.

In the 5th round of the MLB draft, the San Diego Padres took Jablonski (Rico) Noel, a center fielder from Coastal Carolina.

Let’s get right to the numbers:

Adjusted Junior year stats: .353/.474/.594, .469 wOBA. Coastal Carolina plays in a neutral park and their strength of schedule was 100th in the nation, courtesy of Boyd’s World.

That’s an interesting statistical profile. He improved each year, increasing his average, walk rate, and power, while cutting down the strikeouts. Noel is described as a player who, offensively, puts the ball in play and uses all fields (and, once he gets on, steals bases). However, check out those K-rates. For his career, he struck out 139 times in 759 plate appearances (18%).

Jeff Sackman has done some research on college strike out rates and  when to “red-flag” somebody because they whiff too much in college. He concludes:

Thus, we can tweak the warning range again. Instead of 15 percent to 17.5 percent, we’re looking at college strikeout rates between about 18.5 percent and 22 percent. Anything over 22 percent foretells serious contact problems; anything above about 18 percent suggests that a player will have to be awfully good in the other 82 percent of plate appearances to make up for the strikeouts.

Noel for his career is at 18.3%, but he has lowered it in each year (24% – 19% – 15%), which is a good sign. However, it is definitely a concern, especially for someone who does not possess a ton of power and whose game is built around speed and getting on base.

Noel’s strikeout issues were further evident on the Cape last summer, when he struck out 35 times in 134 PAs (26%). He hit .233/.336/.302 overall. At 5-9, 170, Rico needs to continue working on making contact as he enters pro ball.

He definitely has some positives attributes, including his overall on-base ability and, mainly, his defensive ability and the pure speed he brings to the field. During his four year career at Coastal Carolina – and including his Cape Cod League performance — he has stolen 146 bases in 170 attempts (86%).

Here’s some video of Noel.

In the fourth round of the draft, the San Diego Padres took a Junior from Kentucky, second basemen Chris Bisson (pronounced BEES-own).

Bisson is very much a contrast to Jedd Gyorko, who was taken two rounds earlier. Unlike  Gyroko, Bisson does not have great hitting prowess, however he brings excellent defense and great speed to the table. Let’s check the numbers:

Bisson gets a nice bump in his raw numbers, checking in on College Splits adjustments for his Junior year: .343/.433/.481, .407 wOBA. Bisson benefited from an extreme hitter’s park (132, from 2006-09), but also played a against tough competition in the SEC (Kentucky’s SOS was 23rd in the country this year) – both numbers from Boyd’s World.

With wood, Bisson hit .269/.385/.306 in the Cape Cod League last summer, but did steal 36 bases in 42 games.

Baseball Beginnings has a nice scouting report on Bisson, concluding:

SUMMARY: Chance to be best defender at his position. Speed plays. Needs to develop strength and prove he can consistently put ball in play. Won’t hit for power or be impact offensive player, but speed and defense will give him value.

There are serious questions about Bisson’s bat, but the fact that he provides good defense up the middle and brings plus speed to the field certainly won’t hurt his development.

In the second round at pick 59, the Padres selected West Virginia shortstop Jedd Gyorko.

Gyorko is rated as the 39th best draft prospect by Baseball America, 43rd by John Sickels, and 57th by Keith Law. Gyorko is a 5-10, 185 right-hand hitting shortstop. He has a stocky frame and will likely move to second or third base in professional ball. He has a very solid bat, however:

He got better every year at West Virginia, and as a freshman he had a 1.072 OPS. That’s pretty good. He improved his control of the strike zone each progressive year, and although his batting average dropped as a Junior, he increased his home run output from eight in each of the previous two year to 19 in his final year at West Virginia.

His park/schedule adjusted Junior season stats from College Splits: .373/.467/.737, .503 wOBA. He played in a slight pitcher’s park and West Virginia’s strength of schedule was 129th in the country, both according to Boyd’s World.

According to Paul DePodesta, he also hit .326/.388/.488 last summer in the Cape Cod League. Those numbers may not look that impressive, but consider college hitters are switching from metal to wood bats, and the league as a whole hit about .235. Gyorko’s .323 batting average and .488 slugging percentage were both third in the league.

Here’s a video of Gyorko hitting:

I am no swing-mechanics expert, but he looks pretty good at the point of contact:

And again:

And while we’re at it, a home run vs. Maryland:

Here’s Jedd in the infield:

From my non-expert perspective, I like this pick at 59. Unlike Padres first round pick Whitson, Gyorko is a pretty decent bet to progress quickly and, at some point, make an impact in the majors. At the same time, due mostly to his body type and fielding ability, his upside probably isn’t near that of Whitson’s. But at 59, he’s a nice pick.

The San Diego Padres take Jedd Gyorko at 59, shortstop from West Virginia.

Rounds 2-30 will be completed today. Picks are live on MLB.com.

The San Diego Padres picked Karsten Whitson in the first round of the 2010 MLB draft, 9th overall. Whitson is a 6-4, 195 lb right-handed starter from Chipley High School in Florida.

The risk that is the HS pitcher

Before getting into Whitson, specifically, let’s talk about high school pitchers in general. The general consensus is that prep pitchers have the most risk of any type of draft prospect (HS pitchers, HS bat, college pitchers, college bat). Take a look at this chart, created by Sky Andrecheck at Baseball Analysts, and based off his draft WAR model:

The chart says that  high school pitchers, selected toward the top of the draft, have about a 30% chance of at least reaching the majors and contributing 1 WAR through their career. You can see that that figure is lower than the other three types of players, and the trend continues as you scan down the chart and raise expectations. This chart shows us that high school pitchers are least likely to make any impact at the major league level, and that their ceilings are actually *lower* – on average — than their college and position player counterparts.

In other words, high school pitchers are dangerous. Importantly, however, the data suggest that the risk might not be worth the reward, as they don’t offer a higher upside either.

Here are all high school pitchers selected in the top 15 picks, from 1999 through 2006:

Thanks to Baseball Reference for the data.

You’ve got a number of hits (Beckett, Greinke, Kazmir, Kershaw) and a bunch of misses. You may notice another trend, too. There were 10 HS pitchers taken in the first 15 picks between the 1999 and 2000 drafts. From 2001 through 2006, however, there were only 11 taken. It appears that teams were getting a little more selective with prep arms, as they better realized the risk.

Karsten Whitson is not Mark Phillips

One of the problems with this type of analysis is that we are lumping players together. Sure, “high school pitchers” is a convenient enough category – and it obviously makes a good deal of sense – but we have to recognize that all high school pitchers are not the same, and frankly many of them are not even similar, taking into account size, stuff, command, make-up, etc. .

Perhaps the Padres have selected their Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, or Jake Peavy here. Maybe they haven’t. It’s close to impossible to tell, especially when you don’t have access to the scouting reports and first hand knowledge that the Padres and some draft experts do.

That said, that is not going to stop us from discussing Whitson, and trying to form some type of opinion on his future in the Padres organization.

Basic facts

Karsten Whitson, RHP
Chipley HS, FLA
6-4, 190
Commitment: Florida
Stats: 7-3, 123 strikeouts, 55 innings (senior season)

Scouting Report

Drawing off the excellent scouting report available at PNR Scouting, Whitson offers the following pitches:

Fastball – Sits in low-90s, can reach 94-95. Good movement. Can add velocity with improved strength/altering mechanics. Only issue is control.

Slider – Low-80s power slider. Plus pitch. Needs to work on control/command.

Change-up – Low-80s. Work in progress, but has potential to be solid offering.

Here’s a good report on his mechanics, from Amazin’ Avenue:

Issue number two concerns his mechanics. If you watch him from the side, pay attention to how he lands on his left leg. Ideally, the pitcher lands on it softly, with the knee bent a little less than 90 degrees. In Whitson’s case, he’s landing stiffly, immediately pushing up with his leg as he lands. What’s the big deal? It implies three issues, none of which are huge deals for Whitson. First, it can impair a pitcher’s control, due to the leg forcing his body away from his momentum at the moment of release. Whitson’s command is pretty good as is (but maybe it can be better). Second, a great stride shouldn’t allow you to land anything but softly. It may be that Whitson can get a little more power from his stride, either adding velocity to his fastball or taking a little stress off his shoulder. And third, Whitson’s follow-through is a little short, and I’m pretty sure the stiff leg is the reason. A good follow-through can act almost like an energy sink, allowing the pitcher’s arm to decelerate as safely as possible. If cut prematurely, it can shock the pitcher’s shoulder a second time, adding recoil to the delivery. Lengthening Whitson’s stride just a little might solve all three potential problems.

And a couple of videos of Whitson:

The consensus opinion

Here’s a chart showing where various draft experts rank Whitson:

Overall, Whitson is obviously a highly regarded pitching prospect. The questions regarding his development are questions that follow most any young pitching prospect. Can he handle 200 innings down the road? Can he add a few MPH with improved mechanics and/or strength and conditioning? Can he refine his mechanics and avoid injury? Can he improve his command/control?

The Padres obviously believe that he has a good chance to develop into a solid pitcher, as they spent a high pick on him and will likely have to pony up above-slot dollars to sign him away from his Florida commitment. We’ll be rooting for him. 

The San Diego Padres have selected RHP from Chipley HS (FLA) Karsten Whitson.

We’ll have a full report later. For now, here are some scouting reports:

MLB Bonus Baby
PNR Scouting
MLB.com

Video

The first round of the MLB draft is today at 4 PM PST on MLB Network. The San Diego Padres pick ninth and have been connected with quite a few prospects, namely Kolbrin Vitek and Michael Choice.

We’ve already discussed why the draft is so important for teams, especially the Padres. Last year after the draft we reviewed the Padres draft strategy, since 2006

With a new regime in place – Jed Hoyer, Jason McLeod, Jaron Madison, etc. – it does not make a lot of sense looking at the Padres past drafts to assess what they are going to do this year. What is more important is the track records of the new guys in charge and their philosophies on the draft.

Anyway, use this thread to discuss anything draft related throughout the day. Please feel free to jump into the discussion. We’ll have full coverage of the Padres first round selection, as well as some of the picks tomorrow.

Here are a few links:

Kevin Goldstein will be chatting throughout the draft at Baseball Prospectus.

Friarhood has some nice profiles on a lot of the first round prospects.

Baseball America, MLB Bonus Baby, and Minor League Ball are great sources for draft coverage.

The MLB draft is tomorrow, televised on MLB Network at 4 PM PST. The San Diego Padres select ninth in the first round and then not again until 59th.

The Mock Draft: Attempting to predict what all 30 teams are going to do in the first round. Generally fun, generally sort of useless and hard to do. Good for discussion, though. Below, I have listed, from difference sources of various credibility, a few mock drafts:

There are more at the Mock Draft Database.

The name I’ve heard most is Kolbrin Vitek, the 2B from Ball State, but that surely doesn’t mean the Padres will take him. If they do, it sounds like a position change is a no-brainer, and that he will be targeted for center field.

From what Jed Hoyer and company have said, and based on their track records, it appears that the Padres are going to take the “best player available.” Not a bad philosophy when, you know, the idea is to get a good baseball player. In all seriousness, I have a lot of faith that the front office is following a good process here. We will have to wait and see if the results follow.