Last night I had the opportunity to chat with the guys at Baseball Press.

We talked about the San Diego Padres acquisitions of Ryan Ludwick and Miguel Tejada, the team’s pitching staff, prospects, and playoff chances.

The entirety of the podcast can be found here.

In 2008 and 2009, Kevin Kouzmanoff posted 2.7 WAR seasons for the San Diego Padres.  In 2007, his WAR was 2.5.  This season, the Oakland Athletics have played 115 games, and Kouzmanoff has compiled 1.8 WAR. If he were to continue his pace, Kouzmanoff would end the year with 2.5 WAR.

Kouzmanoff is an incredibly average third baseman.   Padres fans might remember Kouzmanoff as prone to extended slumps, but year after year, he has put up league average performances.  I have not done the research, but in terms of WAR, Kouzmanoff might just be the major’s most consistent players.

A few weeks ago I moved to Los Angeles to start a new job.  For the most part, all I have been doing is working. I have become familiar with the 110 freeway, the two-block radius around my apartment, and the two South Los Angeles surface streets I take once I exit the 110 to get to and from work each day.  Other than that, I really have not seen much of L.A.

Last night however I was able to secure a few cheap tickets to the Dodger’s game against the Washington Nationals via Craigslist.*  In a titillating pitching match-up, the great Livan Hernandez matched Hiroki Kuroda for seven innings before turning the game over to the bullpens.  The game went to extra-innings, where the Duds won on a James Loney walk-off base-hit in the bottom of the tenth.

*Is there really any reason to purchase single-game seats direct from teams any more?  By purchasing second-hand from somebody via Craigslist on the day of the game, you can easily cut your purchase price in half.  People selling game-day tickets on Craigslist have minimal negotiating power.  Almost always they are people who cannot make it to the game and will take whatever they can get for their tickets.  Yesterday, I secured four $35 tickets for $15 each, and frankly, I probably could have gotten them for $10 each.

The game was not overly exciting, and the outcome somewhat disappointing, but it was nice to see Dodger Stadium for the first time.  Here are a few observations:

• Access into and out of the stadium is a nightmare.  There is minimal public transportation to the game, which means everybody is forced to drive there.  The problem is there are not many ways to access the stadium, which creates huge traffic jams.  No wonder Dodger fans are notorious for arriving in the 3rd inning and leaving by the 7th.  The traffic is not worth dealing with.
• I have never experienced such long lines for food at a baseball game.  The cost of my hot dog and beer was much more than the ridiculous $15 purchase price.  I also missed the entirety of two innings.
• Speaking of hot-dogs, I was pretty disappointed with my “Dodger Dog.”  The “all-beef” dog was thin, wrinkly, and lacked flavor.  The bun to dog ratio was way off as well.  The thing tasted like a hot dog bun with mustard, ketchup, relish, and onions spread over it.  Which isn’t terrible if you are super hungry at home and have nothing left in the fridge/pantry.  But for $5, I want to be able to taste at least some of that “all-beef” goodness.
• The home bullpen is one of the sorriest things I have ever seen.  Tucked away in left-field, the Dodger’s bullpen is tiny, surrounded by a hideous chain-link fence, and is stocked with flimsy lawn chairs for the players to sit on.  That’s the type of accommodations I expect the visiting team’s bullpen to receive.  Not the home team.
• Finally, the bathrooms.  The stadium is old, so it should come as no surprise that the bathroom’s are pretty ancient as well.  They are not necessarily dirty.  Just old.  As with many restroom’s at old stadiums, the urinals are trough style.  Some people dislike trough’s in public facilities, and they are rarely installed at newer stadiums.  But personally, I don’t mind them.  The line moves quicker. Trough’s allow for a more efficient use of restroom real-estate, and personally, I don’t feel like there is an alarming reduction in privacy.  Lets be honest, people who want to “sneak a peak” can do so at traditional urinals nearly as easily as trough style urinals.

In a somewhat surprising move, the San Diego Padres acquired Ryan Ludwick from the St. Louis Cardinals as part of a three-team deal that also saw Jake Westbrook leave Cleveland for St. Louis.

Personally, its a deal I love.

Ludwick is a solid bat who instantly becomes the Padres second best hitter.  His 0.354 wOBA is solidly above average, as he gets on base at a good clip (0.343 OBP), and hits with a decent amount of power (0.484 SLG).

For the rest of the season, ZiPS projects Ludwick to improve his offensive numbers slightly, but a move to Petco Park will probably dampen his unadjusted statistics.

What people might not realize about Ludwick is he is actually a pretty solid fielder.  For his career, Ludwick’s UZR/150 in the outfield is 7.6 runs above average.  Already this season, UZR has him at a 8.8 runs above average.  A big part of the Padres success this season has been the strength of their fielding, and adding Ludwick should not change that.

Ludwick will likely take some playing time away from the likes of Will Venable and Chris Denorfia.  That’s fine.  Ludwick is an obvious upgrade, worth about an extra win over the remainder of the season.

In return for Ludwick, the Padres gave up minor league pitchers Nick Greenwood, who according to Keith Law: “shows no projection beyond middle reliever right now,” and Corey Kluber.  Kluber leads the Texas League in strikeouts, but is already 24 years old, still in AA, and projects as a back-end of the rotation starter at best.

Salary-wise, Ludwick is being paid $5.45MM this year, and his salary is likely to increase to around $8MM-$9MM next season in arbitration, a level where there is still some surplus value.

In return for two non-impact prospects, the Padres acquired a year and a half of Ryan Ludwick.  He further improves the club’s playoff chances both this year and next year, giving the team some added pop without weakening the defense.  This is the exact type of trade contending teams with room to add payroll should be making.

Miguel Tejada is not a good player anymore.  He doesn’t hit that well, and he doesn’t field that well.  But the San Diego Padres did not give up much to get him, as Wynn Pelzer looks unlikely to become anything more than a middle reliever.

Tejada provides some depth in the infield, and looks to be a slight marginal upgrade.  But hey, when you’re in the playoff hunt in late July, a slight marginal upgrade could make the difference in the end.

Mat Latos has had a fantastic season.  He has struck out 106 batters compared to only 30 walks in 112 innings pitched.  His 2.48 ERA is accompanied by 11 wins to 4 losses.  Not bad for a second year pitcher.

Latos has great stuff.  His 94 mph fastball is 1.63 runs above average per 100 pitches, and he throws it about 60 percent of the time.  His slider is actually better on a per-pitch basis–2.82 runs above average per 100 pitches–and is thrown one quarter of the time.  Latos’s change-up, his next most frequently thrown pitch is also over a run per hundred pitches above average.

Basically, Latos is young, has good stuff, and has learned how to use that stuff effectively.

The thing is, as good as Latos has been, he has not been 2.48 ERA good.  His FIP stands at 3.35, and his xFIP is 3.51.  Both numbers are incredibly solid, but suggest that Latos has been a bit lucky this season.

The main driver has been a ridiculously low BABIP.  Latos’s BABIP is a miniscule 0.251, fourth lowest in the National League amongst Fangraph’s qualified pitchers.

Latos has also been great at stranding runners, rather than allowing them to score.  His 84.2 percent strand rate is also fourth lowest in the National League (Wade LeBlanc at 85.7 percent leads the league).

Mat Latos is a solid pitcher, and projects to be very good going forward.  But, a low BABIP, low strand rate, and the wonders of Petco Park have combined to make a good pitcher look like a Cy-Young pitcher.  Latos might be one some day, but he is not there quite yet.

Looks like the Padres will have home-field advantage in the world series!

Wow.

Prior to the season, I was quite vocal about my lack of faith in David Eckstein, writing: “My lack of confidence in Eckstein is well documented.  His bat is terrible, and his fielding is, at best, average.  I have a hunch the San Diego Padres may end up releasing him mid-season.  Eckstein is that bad.”

My pre-season projection for Eckstein mirrored my written summary:

We are now in July, and despite the perception that Eckstein has had a good season, my view has not changed.  These are Eckstein’s stats so far in 2010:

My prediction on OBP is dead-on.  The SLG and wOBA are pretty close as well.  The reason that Eckstein’s WAR is so much higher than predicted is his pretty decent UZR.

The problem is, Eckstein’s UZR of 4.1 (8.8/150) is not all that meaningful.  The sample size is still too small. In fact, Dewan’s plus/minus has Eckstein as an exactly league average fielder. Considering Eckstein has not posted an above average fielding season since 2006, I doubt that he is truly as good as his UZR so far suggests.

Basically, Eckstein’s bat is exactly what we thought it would be–terrible–and there is not sufficient evidence to state his fielding is any better than average.  What does that leave us?  Exactly the same player we thought we had.  An exceedingly mediocre second baseman.

As of this writing, Adrian Gonzalez currently leads the National League in Fangraphs WAR.

He has been the National League’s best hitter, at 22.3 runs above average, and leads all NL first baseman in UZR (4.4).  After adjusting for playing time and position, Gonzalez has racked up 3.2 WAR, equivalent to nearly $13MM of value.

I know it is obvious, but Gonzalez has been a key reason for the San Diego Padres success this season. Sometimes its fun to just remember how good he is.