by Daniel Gettinger

Generally speaking, I like what the Padres have done this winter.  The team has paid cheaply for upgrades at starting pitcher and a few bench slots.  The Padres also got better by trading Kevin Kouzmanoff for Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham, allowing Chase Headley to slide over to his natural third-base position and pushing Kyle Blanks to the much less demanding (at least in Petco) left-field slot.

That said, in retrospect, I would have handled the second base position differently.  I would have forgone signing David Eckstein and Yorvit Torrealba.  I would have used the savings to ink Orlando Hudson to a one-year contract.

The Padres will pay David Eckstein $1MM in 2010.  Torrealba will receive $1.25MM.  Although both may be worth slightly more than his salary, neither are different makers.  Orlando Hudson is due to earn $5MM on a one-year contract from the Twins.

According to Websoulsurfer, the Padres current payroll (which includes Eckstein and Torrealba) stands at approximately $38MM.  In December, Padres CEO Jeff Moorad said the Padres 2010 payroll would “start with a four.”  That suggests the Padres currently have at least $2MM to spend on payroll.

The following chart shows the salary and projected WAR for Torrealba and Eckstein, as well as Orlando Hudson.

Had the Padres not signed Eckstein or Torrealba, they would have had $4.25MM to play with ($2.25MM in saved salary plus the $2MM the team currently has to spend).  At that point, spending an extra $0.75MM to sign Hudson may have been approved.

Lets assume the Padres end up spending $40.075MM on their 2010 payroll.  The Padres three primary signings this season-Eckstein, Jerry Hairston and Torrealba-signed for an expected $3.36MM/win.  To reach $40.075MM, the Padres will need to spend an additional $2.075MM.  At $3.36MM/win, the Padres could expect to add 0.62 wins with their leftover funds.  0.62 plus the expected contributions of Eckstein and Torrealba totals 1.42 wins.

If the Padres had instead signed Hudson, their expected WAR would have been 2.5 for the same amount of spending.  Sure the Padres would have been a bit thinner at catcher, but under this calculation I am valuing Dusty Ryan at replacement level and the team still comes out 1.08 wins ahead.

Even if the Padres were unable to sign Hudson, they could have reached out to Felipe Lopez who is still a free agent.  It is unlikely Lopez will sign for more money than Hudson, and he provides similar expected value.  I prefer Hudson because his performance has been more consistent year-to-year than Lopez, but that extra risk is likely to result in a slightly lower salary for Lopez.

By re-signing David Eckstein, the Padres limited their options immensely.  They locked themselves in at second base with a pretty mediocre player.  This prevented the Padres from taking advantage of potential bargains at the position.  As a result, the team ended up spending much of their remaining funds on bench upgrades.  However, if Eckstein was not re-signed, the Padres could have forgone signing Yorvit Torrealba as well as whatever marginal upgrades they end up making with their remaining funds.  In return, they could have signed a quality player like Orlando Hudson (or Felipe Lopez) at a lower rate per win.

Edit: I realize Towers was the GM when Eckstein was signed.  I am not blaming Hoyer. I was merely suggesting that if we could “play” the off-season again, this is what I would do.

by Myron Logan

On Friday, Jed Hoyer and the Padres signed veteran catcher Yorvit Torrealba to a one year, $1.25 million deal, with a mutual option in 2011.

Assuming $3.5 million per win, the Padres are paying Torrealba like a .3-.4 WAR player. That is probably a slight bargain for Torrealba, who, as a part time catcher, has averaged about .8 WAR a year over the last three years.

While the contract is fine and Torreabla actually adds something at catcher for the Pads, he’s obviously by no means a difference maker.  He’ll be 32 years old and his wOBA has hovered around .300 in hitter-friendly Colorado. He hits the ball on the ground a lot — about 55% of the time — which might help to ease the transition to Petco, though generally is not a good sign for a slow-moving catcher.

What has to be applauded about the deal, though, is that rather than overpaying for a veteran catcher, Hoyer and company, if anything, underpaid on the free agent market. You could argue, like I have before, that they would have been better off going with someone making the minimum, and putting the $1.25M to use elsewhere. But, if it’s going to be spent on this year’s roster, at least it is being spent effectively.

by Myron Logan

Daniel analyzed the Jon Garland signing earlier, concluding:

Expected to perform at a $7MM level for only $5.3MM, Garland provides surplus value, at a position of need.  Not a bad signing.

Daniel is of course spot-on, and his approach to evaluating the deal is precisely how I would have looked at it. However, consider the question Aaron asked in today’s chat:

Why do you guys always use WAR as a universal stat. Aren’t wins worth more or less to different teams?

He makes a great point. A marginal win has a different value for each franchise. It is something that I’ve talked about along time ago, but neglected all too often. Let’s just consider one aspect; the team’s placement on the win curve. And just for the purposes of this post, let’s say the Padres were projected to win 79 games before acquiring Jon Garland. If you look at the chart in that linked post — Nate Silver’s wonderful research –a projected 79 win team has about a 12% chance of making the playoffs.

If we say that Garland’s addition adds two wins to the Padres projection, now they are an 81 win team. That increases their playoff chances by 6% — to a whopping 18%. If a playoff berth is worth $30 million — again, according to Silver, though obviously that figure is dated — Garland gets a $1.8 million playoff bonus. Now, are those two extra wins that he’s adding worth that remaining $3.5 million — the difference between Garland’s salary and the playoff bonus — without consider their impact on San Diego’s playoff chances.

Though Garland’s deal may have been a relative bargain, even in this year’s free agent market, the Padres are still paying a premium for his services. Due to his free agent status, and the fact that all teams can bid on him, his salary gets a major bump. Would the $5.3M the Padres gave Garland be better utilized on, say, locking up young players currently on the roster, future draft pick signing bonuses, international signings, and improving the scouting, player development, and analysis departments?

I don’t know the answer, but I think that consideration is definitely warranted. It is tough to criticize the Padres when they actually do spend money, putting them into a classic “damned if ya do, damned if ya don’t” situation. That said, their payroll sat at a mere $33 million before Garland’s acquisition, clearly showing that they are not necessarily trying to compete this season. Does it make sense to spend 13% of the payroll on one player, one player who likely is not going to change the season’s ultimate fate? Should they even be competing on the free agent market at this point?

Seriously, I ask questions because I don’t know the answers. $5.3 million is not going to cripple the franchise, but I’m just wondering if it could have been better spent elsewhere.

by Daniel Gettinger

Pitcher Jon Garland and the Padres have agreed to what is essentially a one-year deal worth $5.3MM guaranteed.   (Note: There is actually a mutual option for a second year at $6.75MM with a $600K buyout).

Garland has been consistently durable and has posted consistently average performances throughout his career.  He is a low strikeout guy, who gets away with a lack of stuff by minimizing his walks and homeruns allowed. Since 2002 Garland has thrown no fewer than 191 innings in any season, while posting WARs between 2 and 4.

The projections that are out are pretty much in agreement on Garland.  He is expected to produce a FIP around 4.5 in about 190 innings.  That is solid, valuable performance, and worth approximately 2 wins ($7MM) above replacement.

Garland takes the place of the Padres previously unnamed fifth starter.  Instead of running Stauffer, LeBlanc, or some other replacement type player currently in the Padres system, the Padres can throw Garland. If someone else in the system steps up, the team will probably be able to deal Garland to a different team.

Expected to perform at a $7MM level for only $5.3MM, Garland provides surplus value, at a position of need.  Not a bad signing.

by Daniel Gettinger

Replacement level player.  Replacement level contract.  Enough said.

by Daniel Gettinger

Following their trade for Scott Hairston, the Padres decided to double down on Hairston’s and sign his brother Jerry.

Jerry Hairston is one of the more versatile players in baseball, capable of playing every position on the field, and seemingly doing so pretty well.  Over his career, Hairston has an above average UZR at every position except for SS and 3B.  Of course, he does not have enough innings logged at some of those positions (including 3B and SS) to really be sure about his defensive ability at particular positions.  Overall though, he appears to be a very good fielder who can at least hold his own at any position.

Fielding and versatility is what keeps Hairston in the majors.  With the exception of a flukey 2008 campaign with the Reds, Hairston has been a below average hitter.  He projects to be a below average hitter in 2010 as well, with the projection systems on fangraphs pegging him to be between 4 and 5 runs below average in about 340 plate appearances.

Hairston signed a 1-year $2.12 million deal.  His solid fielding and versatility should help the Padres, but he is unlikely to greatly outperform his salary.  While the signing makes sense, it is tough to get too excited about the addition of a weak hitting utility player.

by Daniel Gettinger

For over a year I have pleaded (some may call it whining) for the Padres to trade Kevin Kouzmanoff.  As Ben posted earlier, the Padres have finally done so.  In return for Kouzmanoff and Eric Sogard, the Padres will receive outfielders Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham.  This is a great trade for the Padres.

First lets look at what the Padres are giving up.

The As are acquiring Kouzmanoff’s three arbitration seasons.  Kouz has been remarkably consistent as a Padre, posting WARs of 2.7, 2.8, and 2.7.  Both with the glove and the bat, Kouz is average for his position. At 28 years old, the A’s can probably expect Kouzmanoff to continue to post WAR’s between 2.5 and 3.0 for the next three seasons.

Using a dollar per win value of $4MM, and the standard 40%, 60%, 80% expected arbitration award, Kouzmanoff is expected to get paid between $21MM and $25MM while producing $31MM and $37MM worth of value.  That’s $10MM-$12MM of surplus value (not including any free agent compensation the A’s may eventually receive) over the three years.

Eric Sogard is a soon to be 24 year old second baseman who walks a lot, but like most second baseman does not have much power.  John Sickels rates Sogard as the Padres 20th best prosect and gives him a C+ grade, writing: “Gets on base, not punchless, defense is so-so but I like the bat enough to keep give him this grade.”

According to Victor Wang’s research on prospect value, a C hitter older than 23 years is expected to provide $0.5MM of surplus value.  In total, the Padres are surrendering something between $10MM and $13MM of value.

So, what are the Padres getting in return?

The Padres will control Hairston for his final two years of arbitration.  The projection systems peg Hairston as an average outfielder with the bat.  Overall for his career, Hairston has been an average, albeit versatile fielder.  His biggest problem has been staying in the lineup.  He has never played more than 116 games in any season.

The past three years, Hairston has been a 1.8, 1.8, and 1.4 WAR player.  He might be slightly better than that, but for the sake of being conservative, lets say he will be between a 1.5 and 2.0 WAR player over the next two seasons.  In a vacuum, that equates to between $2.5MM and $3.5MM in surplus value.

Sickels rated Aaron Cunningham the A’s third best prospect entering the 2009 season (due to a brief appearance in the majors this season, he was ineligible for this year’s list.)  Sickels gave Cunningham a B grade writing: “A solid all-around player. Doesn’t have the ceiling of some of these other guys, but a surer bet to reach his.”  Baseball America rated Cunningham baseball’s 55th best prospect entering last season.

According to Wang’s research, a hitter ranked between 51 and 75 on Baseball America’s rankings is worth $14.2MM.  In total, the Padres are receiving about $17MM of value in return for $10MM-$13MM of value.

However, things get even better.  The Padres traded from an area of surplus for talent in an area of need.

With Chase Headley on the roster, the Padres had two third baseman, but were forcing one (Headley) to masquerade as a left-fielder.  Not surprisingly, Headley’s fielding was a major liability and zapped much of his value.  In the minors, Headley was considered an average fielding third baseman, and in the majors Headley has shown to be no worse than an average hitter.  In replacing Kouz with Headley at third, the Padres essentially break even.

Replacing Headley with Hairston in the outfield, however is an upgrade.  Hairston provides similar value with the bat, but is a much better (think 15-20 runs better) fielder than Headley, and given his ability to play CF, more versatile.

Kouz for Hairston alone, while not necessarily a great deal from a traditional surplus value calculation perspective would probably have been a break-even proposition for the Padres due to their surplus of third baseman.  Also adding a solid prospect like Cunningham ensures that the team received more than fair compensation for Kouzmanoff, and makes this deal a serious win for the Padres.

by Ben Davey

In case anyone didnt see this Hacksaw, MLBTR, and a few other sources are saying the Padres sent 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff to the A’s for former Padre Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham. I guess a prospect is also being sent the A’s way but I will take a wild guess and assume its not going to be a top prospect. Maybe someone like Chad Huffman or a low level prospect

To me this is a good move by the Padres. Adding Hairston and Cunningham to the OF rotation will help out a lot defensively (especially considering no more Headley in the OF).  Also we already know Scotty can help offensively which will hopefully make up for the loss of Kouz.

I dont know much about Cunningham, but he seems to draw a lot of comparisons to recently DFA’d outfielder Eric Byrnes. He has not had much success playing limited time in the majors the past 2 seasons. He is only 23 (turns 24 in April) and put up .309/.382/.493 averaging about 25 SB and 20 HR for a full season. Baseball Reference has him playing all 3 OF positions, mainly RF and CF the past couple years.

Just based on the little knowledge I know of the prospect and of course of Scotty I think its a good trade by the Padres

More links Bleacher Report
SF Gate

by Daniel Gettinger

There are some rumblings that the Padres are talking with Coco Crisp about a one-year deal worth between $3MM and $4MM.

This just makes too much sense.  Crisp is a decent player, appears to want to play for the Padres, would come cheap and be signed for only one year, and significantly upgrades the Padres’ outfield.

Last year Crisp missed the bulk of the season with a torn Labrum.  However, in just 49 games he amassed a WAR of 1.2.  Consistent with his career numbers, Crisp was about average offensively, but played good defense at a premium position (CF).

Although it is always difficult to project how a player will return from injury, there are no indications that Crisp will have any serious issues.  Recovery from Labrum surgery typically takes between 4 and 6 months. Crisp had his surgery in June, so there is no reason to think he will not be at full strength come opening day.

Bill James forecasts Crisp to be a little above average with the bat.  CHONE and Fangraph’s fans projections think Crisp will be a little below average.  His fielding, which with the exception of a bizarrely poor 2008 season has always been exceptional, should at least be above average.

Jeff Zimmerman, using UZR and CHONE projections, projects Crisp to be a 1.5 WAR player in 2010.  The fans have Crisp at 2.2 WAR, and James seems to have Crisp somewhere around 2.5 WAR.

Lets project Crisp at 2.0 WAR, with a minimal level of play of 1.0 WAR.

Using a $4.4MM per win conversion, Crisp appears to be worth no less than $4.4MM.  In expectation, he is worth $8.8MM.  Given the rumored price-tag of $3MM-$4MM, Crisp will almost certainly provide surplus value to the club.

His signing also addresses a need for the Padres.  Neither Tony Gwynn Jr. nor Will Venable are projected to hit or field as well as Crisp in 2010.  Crisp provides a bit of an upgrade over either of the current two CF options.

A Crisp signing also has the added benefit of providing the Padres with an answer for filling the outfield holes that will open when they trade Adrian Gonzalez and/or Kevin Kouzmanoff.  Gwynn or Venable can slide over to RF where they will team with Crisp to form a very solid defensive outfield.  The fourth outfielder still stands to play a significant amount.

Given that at the very least Kouzmanoff or Adrian will be traded, the Padres do not have much outfield depth for 2010.  Signing Crisp addresses that need, but also provides the club with a very solid player who will almost certainly provide value in excess of his salary.  A one-year deal at such a low price-point is nearly risk free, and is exactly the type of signing a team in transition, like the Padres, should be making.

by Daniel Gettinger

Kevin Kouzmanoff trade rumors have dominated the Padres related rumors coming out of the winter meetings.  Much of the chatter has been centered around a possible Giants deal, and a potential Twins deal.

Jason Stark reported that the Padres offered Kouzmanoff to the Giants for outfielder Fred Lewis and second base/utility guy Kevin Frandsen.  Stark also reported that the Padres have requested pitcher Glen Perkins and some second player in return for Kouz.

Neither deal strikes me as something the Padres should seriously consider.

Kevin Kouzmanoff has been an extremely consistent (at least year-by-year) player for the Padres the past three seaons, compiling WARs of 2.6, 2.7, and 2.7 respectively.  He is essentially a league average third baseman.  This year, following three seasons in which he got paid the minimum salary, he is eligible for arbitration, and should earn something around $5M, which assuming he will continue to play like he always has, would result in an expected surplus value of about $7M.

Fred Lewis is a speedy outfielder with little power, but an above average glove at a corner position.  He has not played much in center, but is probably between average and a bit below average there.

In 2008, Lewis had a decent 2.3 WAR season, but last year (albeit with less at bats) only posted 0.9 WAR. Lewis turned 29 today, so he cannot be described as a youngster.  That 2008 season may have been a career-year for him.  Lets split the difference between his 2008 and 2009 season and call him a 1.6 WAR player going forward.

Frandsen is pretty terrible.  He has no power, and lacks the on-base skills to make up for it.  He can play a lot of positions, but there is not sufficient evidence to claim that he is a great fielder.  Frandsen is essentially a replacement level utility player.  Lets be generous and say he can put up 0.5 WAR in 2010.

Combined, Lewis and Frandsen equate to an expected 2.1 WAR, trailing Kouzmanoff’s 2.6 WAR.  Their advantage over Kouzmanoff is they will only get paid around $1M between them this year, and are under team control for a few more seasons.  Combined, if you accept the assumptions I have already laid out, they will provide around $8.5M in excess value in 2010, which exceeds Kouzmanoff’s expected surplus value of $7M.

Of course, they take up two roster spots, while Kouz only takes up one, which more than cancels out the $1.5M difference in surplus value.  In addition, neither player is very good; certainly not as good as Kouzmanoff.  Neither Lewis nor Frandsen are players the team can realistically build around, making their acquisition somewhat pointless.

The proposed Twins trade makes a bit more sense, in that it suggests the Padres would be acquiring a starting pitcher.  Again though, the issue is that the player in question-Glen Perkins-is not good.

Perkins has been a 1 WAR player the past two seasons, and does not project to improve much.  He has decent control, but strikes almost nobody out (only about 4.4 K/9).  He is no better (and quite possibly worse) than guys like Clayton Richard, Tim Stauffer, and Sean Gallagher.

Unless the mystery “second man” in the deal is someone significant, this trade makes less sense than the Giants deal.

The Padres need to trade Kevin Kouzmanoff.  It is silly to have Chase Headley masquerade as a corner-outfielder, when he is clearly a third baseman.  But, taking back a bag of garbage just to make room for him at third does nothing to improve the team.

That said a package of Lewis and a mid-level prospect or two (the type of players who have a chance of playing at a Kouzmanoff level in a few years) might be enough to get a deal done.