As of this writing, Adrian Gonzalez currently leads the National League in Fangraphs WAR.

He has been the National League’s best hitter, at 22.3 runs above average, and leads all NL first baseman in UZR (4.4).  After adjusting for playing time and position, Gonzalez has racked up 3.2 WAR, equivalent to nearly $13MM of value.

I know it is obvious, but Gonzalez has been a key reason for the San Diego Padres success this season. Sometimes its fun to just remember how good he is.

“At some point, ownership has to lead the revenue,” Gerut said. “It doesn’t always occur where your players first start to win and then you start to build around it. Sometimes the ownership has to lead that first. There’s ancillary stuff that I probably know nothing about. I know sometimes that if you build it, fans will come. It doesn’t always have to work out the other way. You don’t always have to get guys at absolute steals in order to keep them.” – Jody Gerut, in a FanHouse article by Tom Krasovic

As the San Diego Padres have continued to surprise the baseball world with a National League best 28-18 record, the near constant questions of Adrian Gonzalez’s future have calmed. He’s a Padre, for now, and not many people are thinking about a deadline deal at this point. Gonzalez is still working on a fantastic – from San Diego’s perspective — four year, $9.5 Million deal, and is signed for $4.5M this year. The San Diego Padres have a $5.7M option for next year, which is the biggest no-brainer in all of baseball.

So, there is no rush. However, in terms of trade value, as each day passes, Gonzalez loses some. It all about surplus value – the value that a player brings in above and beyond what he is being paid. The two aspects that determine surplus value, then, are performance and salary. Take a look at the chart, an estimation of Gonzalez’s surplus value through the remainder of his contract:

I’m estimating Gonzalez as a 4.8 WAR player, currently, based on his performance since 2007. One could argue either way, but I think it is good enough for blog-work. Using $3.5M per marginal win in 2010 and $4M in 2011, we can estimate Gonzalez’s value on the free agent market ($10.9M for the rest of this season and $19.2 for all of next year). His surplus value is the difference between his estimated free agent worth and his actual contract, which comes out to $21.3M.

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by Daniel Gettinger

• As a team the San Diego Padres have performed pretty much as expected.  They are currently 6-6 with a slightly positive run differential.  I still think 75-80 wins is a realistic expectation for this team.
• Chase Headley has been locked in offensively, but his defense needs immediate improvement.  He has five errors in 32 chances.  UZR data is not yet available for this season, and even if it was, the sample would be too small to be meaningful.  But Headley’s defense has been so bad that much of his offensive value has likely been negated.
• Will Venable needs to stop swinging at so many pitches out of the strike zone.  He has swung at 34 percent of the pitches out of the zone.  His lack of plate discipline thus far has resulted in a minuscule 4.7 percent walk rate.  Venable has never shown a ton of plate discipline (in either the majors or the minors).  It is something he will need to work on if he wants to become an above average player.
• Perhaps last season was no fluke for Kevin Correia after all.  He’s looked pretty solid.
• Gregerson’s and Adams’ artificially high ERAs are not reflective of the way they have been pitching.
• The Padres bullpen has a lot of good pitchers.  I remain convinced the team will not miss Heath Bell too much once he is traded.
• Labrum surgery is not Tommy John surgery.  Many pitchers never fully recover after having labrum surgery.  They almost never come back stronger.  I hope we have not seen the last of Chris Young as an effective pitcher, but there is a non- trivial chance that might be the case.  (As an aside, I had labrum surgery four months ago, and can certainly understand what Young is going through.  At times the shoulder feels great, but often tightens up after being tested a bit).
• Mat Latos will be fine.  He has given up too many homeruns, but his 30 percent HR/FB rate is nowhere near sustainable.  Braden Looper had the major league’s highest HR/FB rate last season (amongst qualified pitchers), and he was only at 15 percent.  With Latos pitching half of his games at Petco Park, he is highly unlikely to continue serving up home runs at such a high rate.
• Adrian Gonzalez is fantastic.  Nobody wants to pitch to him, and I don’t blame them.  Some team will get an excellent player and the Padres will be properly compensated for trading that excellent player.

by Daniel Gettinger

Question of the week: Spring Training has barely begun, and already the Adrian Gonzalez trade rumors are in full swing. What are the odds that Gonzalez makes it through the entire 2010 season as a member of the Padres?

My response:

The San Diego Padres are very likely to trade Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a good player, paid like a mediocre player, and not at all overrated. Which is exactly why the Padres should trade him. As he is in the prime of his career, and his contract only runs through 2011, Gonzalez provides optimal value to a team built to compete over the next two seasons. The Padres are not such a team. They are most likely to compete from 2011-20??. Gonzalez will fetch a package of good, young players. Trading him will greatly accelerate the rebuilding process.

by Daniel Gettinger

I was looking for something to write about, so I went over to Fangraphs–The place I always go when I am looking for something to write about.  After clicking through to the advanced stats, I sorted by wRC.  Not surprisingly, Adrian Gonzalez led the team by a good amount in that category.*  What did surprise me was the value in the BABIP column to the left of wRC: 0.280.

*In fact, Adrian had at least double the wRC of every Padre except for Chase Headley.  Still, Adrian’s 123 wRC was nearly 70 percent greater than Headley’s 72.8.

We often talk about how pitcher’s have very little control over their BABIP.  Sure, fly-ball pitchers typically sustain lower BABIPs than ground-ball pitchers, but in general, a pitcher’s BABIP is a function of luck.  That is not the case for batters.  A batter’s BABIP is a function of his balls-in-play rates.  Although there exist numerous expected BABIP estimator, one, created by Dave Studeman, estimates BABIP by: 0.245+0.52*LD%-0.16*FB%+0.11*K%.  Essentially, line-drives are good for BABIP, while fly-balls are bad.

Adrian Gonzalez’s BABIP of 0.280 was exceptionally low.  Amongst Padres with more than 250 plate appearances, only Brian Giles and Luis Rodriguez had lower BABIPs.  What makes this so surprising is that Gonzalez hit a line-drive in 21 percent of his at-bats.  Using Studeman’s BABIP estimator, we would have expected Gonzalez to have a BABIP of 0.310

Gonzalez’s BABIP was lower than expected last season, and he is unlikely to be as unlucky on balls-in-play this season.  But, that does not mean we should expect Gonzalez to be even better in 2010 than he was in 2009.  In 2009, Gonzalez had a fantastic year–maybe even a career year.  His ISO was significantly greater than his previous career best, and his walk rate rose 70 percent compared to 2008.  Some regression is still to be expected.

by Daniel Gettinger

The National League Gold Glove winners were announced today.  Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez won his second consecutive gold glove.  Despite heavy support from the Padres and the San Diego media, Kevin Kouzmanoff, who set the National League single season record for fielding percentage, did not win an award.

Before I touch on Adrian’s award, I want to reiterate that Kouzmanoff did not deserve to win a gold glove this season.  Sure, he made very few errors, but he also has limited range.  Ryan Zimmerman was clearly the best fielding third-baseman in the National League.  His UZR of 18.1 was more than double Kouz’s 7.5. Zimmerman also bested Kouz by a significant margin in Tom Tango’s community scouting report.

As for Adrian…At first, I was surprised to see him win the award again this season.  Most Padres fans know Gonzalez is a pretty good fielding first baseman, but I had just assumed Albert Pujols, who is also often cited as a great fielding first baseman would win the award.

According to UZR though, the voters got this one right.  Gonzalez led all N.L. first basemen with a 3.8 UZR, just edging out Derrek Lee (3.7).  Pujols ranked fourth with a UZR of 1.3.  The thing is, fielding statistics are not entirely precise, so I am not sure we should make much out of the difference between Gonzalez and Pujols in the stat.

According the fan’s scouting report, Pujols actually bests Gonzalez.  But not by much.  Pujols scored an average grade of 3.96, while Gonzalez had an average grade of 3.91.  Derek Lee was at 3.69.  Even if you are not too familiar with the distribution of scores in the fan’s scouting report, it is pretty clear that little separated Pujols and Gonzalez.

All in all, I’d say this one was a toss-up.  Neither Gonzalez nor Pujols (nor Lee if you prefer) distinguished themselves as significantly better fielders than the other this season.  Because the voters did not ignore a greatly more deserving candidate (as would have been the case had Kouzmanoff earned a gold glove at the expense of Zimmerman), I am happy to see Gonzalez, a Padre, be recognized with a post-season award.

by Daniel Gettinger

We were requested to make our MVP ballot ten players deep.  The San Diego Padres chapter of the BBA voted in the following manner:

1) Albert Pujols

2) Hanley Ramirez

3) Chase Utley

4) Tim Lincecum

5) Adrian Gonzalez

6) Prince Fielder

7) Ryan Zimmerman

8. Troy Tulowtizki

9) Ryan Howard

10) Derek Lee

My personal ballot basically mirrored the fangraphs value page with a few minor adjustments.  Mainly, I left a number of the first basemen off my ballot and added in a few pitchers.

1) Albert Pujols

2) Chase Utley

3) Tim Lincecum

4) Hanley Ramirez

5) Ryan Zimmerman

6) Adrian Gonzalez

7) Troy Tulowitzki

8. Matt Kemp

9) Chris Carpenter

10) Javier Vazquez

The Sacrifice Bunt Ballot:

Websoul Surfer Ballot:

10 - Pablo Sandoval – He carried surprising Giants offensively in 2009 •

9 - Ryan Braun - .320 with 32 home runs. But those are not the numbers that • got him on this list. 342/.399/.629/1.029 and 21 hrs with runners on did. Isn’t that what a MVP does, hit better when it counts?

8 - Derrek Lee - Epic numbers with RISP in a lineup that gave him little or • no protection for much of the season - .319/.417/.645/1.062 with 80 RBI .306/.394/.579/.972 with 35 home runs on the season. MVP Numbers.

7 - Chase Utley - .282/.397/.508/.905 and 31 home runs while providing • Gold Glove type defense at 2B. A 7.7 WAR! •

6 - Ryan Howard – 45 Home Runs, 141 RBI .571 Slugging. .292 ISO

5 - Tim Lincecum – Yes, I have him higher in MVP than Cy Young voting. • I think he was more important to his team’s success than Carpenter was. Without him the anemic hitting Giants struggle to win 80 games.

4 - Prince Fielder - .299 .412 .602 1.014 with 46 Home Runs and 141 RBI • .303 ISO and .420 wOBA. 7.92 WPA – best in baseball.

3 - Hanley Ramirez – My preseason pick. This season Ramirez turned into a • full fledged “I will carry this team” player. He led the league in BA @ .342, hit 24 home runs, scored & drove in 100+ runs. .543 SLG/.954 OPS

2 - Adrian Gonzalez - The best player no one knows about. 40 hr, .274 ISO • and .402 wOBA playing in Petco 81 games a season. Enough Said.

1 - Albert Pujols – Unquestionably the best player in baseball

Okay…that concludes my series on post season awards.  I apologize for not providing thorough analysis on my selections-I just did not have the time.  At the same time, my picks in all three player categories should not surprise any regular readers.  I have a strong tendency to go with the “sabermetric” picks in each category.  If you are confused by my selections, just head over to Fangraphs and cruise their “value leaderboard.”

by Ben Davey

Obviously I am not talking about money, and yes I know that it is the middle of October not mid-July; but even with all that aside reports still persist about the Boston Red Sox trying to go after Adrian. But the biggest question is can the Red Sox offer enough to the Padres to make trading AGon worth their while.

In July rumors circled that the Padres were looking for a 4-1, 5-1 deal in exchange for Adrian. Jon Heyman of SI.com reported hours before the trade deadline (via twitter) that the Padres were seeking Clay Buccholz, Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson, Ryan Westmoreland, and Lars Anderson. Of course one of the main reasons this deal did not get done is because of Boston’s hesitation to give up Clay. But without the addition of Clay or Lester do they have enough to throw at the Padres to make it worth giving up our cornerstone player?

Looking at the other players offered, Masterson is not even with the Red Sox anymore (part of the Cliff Lee trade), Lowrie hasn’t proven to be a MLB starter (even though he is still young and has some potential), Anderson was named one of the most disappointing prospects of the year by BA, and even then he is a 1B which the Padres do not need with Kyle Blanks taking over the position if AGon is traded. Westmoreland is an interesting prospect but was also in the NYPenn league (similar to Eugene) this year and is a ways away.

So, so much for that deal. IFFF, and that is a big IF, the Red Sox want to get Adrian from the Padres, they would probably have to give up a majority of their once #1 ranked minor league system. Now looking at it, not only would the Red Sox have to give up Buccholz but they would probably have to give up Tazawa, Reddick, and Westmoreland, and even then I wouldnt be sure the Padres would be willing to give him up.

As a Padre fan are the names listed above enough to sway you away from AGon? Is there anything that Boston would/could reasonably offer to get Adrian? Personally, unless they want to offer us Lester and 2 mid level prospects I say pass. With all that being said, why are we still hearing Adrian to the Red Sox rumors? If anyone is traded this offseason it is probably Bell and or Kouz/Headley. IF Adrian is traded it would have to be a team like Tampa, Atlanta, Texas or Cleveland, who have the prospects to make it worth the Padres time. I’m not suggesting that they do try and trade Adrian, but rather they would have to look at a team that has more to offer then one really good pitcher.

by Daniel Gettinger

• 2 Home runs?  Come on Adrian, I can’t say I expected more, but I was certainly hoping for at least a respectable performance.  That said, while 2 home runs is pretty weak, I’m willing to give Adrian a pass this time.  Not only does the home run derby not matter, but it sounds like just getting to the park was a bit of an adventure.
• Every year I get somewhat excited for the derby, and every year, I get bored after about 5 minutes. The first few home runs are cool, and some of them do go quite far, which is very impressive, but after a little while, I find myself rooting for outs rather than home runs.  I force myself to sit through the whole thing, but don’t really enjoy it.
• Over the weekend, I was channel surfing and watched a few minutes of the 1999 home run derby. Ken Griffey Jr. won his third derby.  ”Pitching” to him was former Rockies manager Clint Hurdle.
• Chris Berman has only one home run call: “back, back, back, back, back…”!  And its been that way for well over a decade, maybe even two decades.  For something like the home run derby, I don’t really mind his schtick, but just a bit more creativity would be nice.
• I know Nelson Cruz has hit 22 home runs this season, but I did not want to see him win the home run derby.  When I think about home run hitters, Nelson Cruz does not come to mind.  Prince Fielder does.  The derby is about watching fan favorite power hitters put on a display.  Prince is the type of guy I want to see win the thing, not someone like Nelson Cruz.
• I love the umpires in the outfield.  Those guys are not umpires so much as they are baby-sitters for the ball-kids in the outfield.
• Speaking of the ball-kids…is anybody else surprised more of them don’t get smacked with a line drive or hit in the face with a ball?  That outfield is total chaos with dozens of kids waving their gloves in the air and doing anything in their power to catch each and every ball.  The balls are hit hard, and with all the distractions, I can’t imagine they have a great view of the ball.
• I get a real kick out of the fans who will do anything to grab a home run ball.  45 year old guys routinely push 8 year old kids out of the way while diving face first onto concrete stadium steps for a chance at a ball.  Have they forgotten that this is a home run derby?  Dozens of home runs are hit. Grabbing a ball is nothing special.  Those balls have minimal monetary value.  They are certainly worth less than the dozens of beers that are dropped in the quest to take a ball home.
• If San Diego ever hosts the all-star game, I think they should let the derby participants use aluminum bats.  Otherwise, a record for quickest home run derby of all time could easily be set.

by Daniel Gettinger

After last night’s game, Adrian Gonzalez has now hit 21 home runs in 2009.  At his current rate, Gonzalez will finish the season with 66 home runs.  He will almost certainly smash his previous season high of 36 home runs, set in 2008.  The big question is whether Adrian’s power spike is real, or luck driven.  The answer: a little of both.

Since Gonzalez came to the Padres in 2006, he has consistently increased his home run totals.  In 2006 he hit 26 HR, he hit 30 in 2007, and 36 in 2008.  This progression has been consistent with a typical course of power development.  Gonzalez is now 27 years of age, somewhere around his prime.  That he is having his best power season of his career is not a surprise.  That he has hit home runs at such an astounding rate is.

The first thing I wanted to check was whether Gonzalez’s homers have been “lucky.”  Have they barely snuck over the fence, or has there been no doubt about them.  Greg Rybarczyk’s hit tracker tool helps us answer that question.  Of Gonzalez’s first 20 home runs (the data for yesterday’s game has not yet been imputed), only four of them have been classified by Rybarczyk has having cleared the fence by “just enough.”  Because approximately 1/4 of all home runs clear the wall by “just enough,” this metric does not predict any regression for Gonzalez.  Adrian’s home runs have, in general, cleared the fence with plenty of room to spare.  

So, if Gonzalez has not gotten lucky on his actual balls hit, why has he hit home runs at such a greater rate than in years past?  Perhaps obviously, he has hit more a few more fly balls, and he has hit those fly balls harder than he has in the past.  The following table captures Gonzalez’s fly ball rate, and HR/FB from 2006 to 2009.  

What stands out is the huge increase in FB/HR in 2009.  Some of the increase might be the result of added strength, or a more efficient use of existing strength, but some regression should be expected.  In 2008, Jack Cust was the only player in the major leagues to hit more than 30% of his fly balls for home runs.  And at 31%, he barely got there.  2007 was no different.  Cust had a HR/FB rate of 33%.  Nobody else was over 30%.

The rest of the HR/FB leader-board is full of high power guys who strike out a lot.  Basically, they don’t make much contact, but when they do, the ball has a good chance of going out of the park.  Gonzalez is not really that type of player.  His K% is usually around 22%.  Guys like Cust, Ryan Howard, and Adam Dunn, all of whom consistently have league leading HR/FB rates, strike out between 30% and 40% of the time. Combined with the fact that Gonzalez plays half has games at home run depressing Petco Park, and it appears unlikely that he will be able to maintain such a lofty HR/FB rate for the entire season.

Adrian Gonzalez is having a fantastic season.  As he is in the prime of his career, we should not be surprised that he is playing better than he ever has.  That said, I doubt Gonzalez will continue to hit home runs at such a ridiculous rate.  His HR/FB rate is just not sustainable.  My guess is Gonzalez hits something around 25 additional home runs in 2009.  He might make a run at 50 home runs, but duplicating Sammy Sosa’s 1998 campaign of 66 home runs seems unlikely.