by Ben Davey

Continuing with my outlook at the full season minor league teams, we are now at AA San Antonio Missions.

Last year the Missions made the playoffs by the skin of their teeth (winning the 1st half) but were quickly sent packing. They finished exactly at .500 (70-70), but never showed signs of the dominance that you would like to see. Many of the “top prospects” from the 2009 team either had a disappointing year (Hunter, Carrillo) or were injured for nearly the entire season (Kulbacki).

The 2010 staff will feature a surplus of great pitching sent from Lake Elsinore, and a shot at redemption for a few quality prospects. If players can stay healthy 2010 can be a big year for the Missions.

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by Ben Davey

Madfriars released my list of top 30 prospects on their site today. My list is slightly different from many of the other prospect lists because I have not bought into the Tate hype. I actually ranked him lower then both Sampson and Williams.

My top 5 were as follows
Jaff Decker
Simon Castro
Kellen Kulbacki
Aaron Poreda
James Darnell

One other interesting thing to note is that there were probably 20 names I considered for the top 10 and about as many names of players I have seen make other “experts” top 10. Combine that with the fact that of the top 30 only 2 (Poreda and Huffman) have any chance of making the team out of ST, and you see a list that is poised to move up even higher in the rankings, especially with another top 10 draft choice.

Madfriars will release their combined top prospect list at the end of the month, and we will concurrently release our interview with them on rankings, philosophy, and the new direction of the front office.

Also did you guys notice that apparently I look just like Denis Savage?

by Ben Davey

Bill Center wrote a recent article in the UT listing the UT’s top 15 Padres prospects for 2010. While I am aware that rankings are extremely difficult and can change drastically from one expert to another, my problem was not  that the UT gave rankings, but that they were not the UT’s or Bill Center’s. In fact they were a “consensus.” Bill Center writes “Based on results, potential, and proximity to the major leagues, here is a CONSENSUS of the Padres’ top prospects.”

I wonder, who is this consensus? Could it be Baseball America? What about Madfriars (insider article)? Or John Sickles? What about Tops? So I figured just looking at these 4 I would develop an actual consensus and see how they stack up.

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by Ben Davey

As a special Christmas treat this year I thought I would post my 2010 preview of the Lake Elsinore.

If you have never been to a Lake Elsinore Storm game before…BUY YOUR TICKETS NOW. Okay, well not now as they are not currently on sale yet, but if you have never been to a minor league game before, and live in southern california, this is your year. Not only can you purchase behind home plate seats for $10, but the Storm also have great promotions such as Thirsty Thursdays, Friday Fireworks, and all you can eat Tuesdays.  Of course the best reason of all to see the Storm this year is that they will be featuring a majority of the 2009 Tin Caps roster, that had had the best record in ALL OF MILB! First game is April 8th, Padres will play at Lake Elsinore on April 2nd.

Continued after the jump…

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by Myron Logan

Adam Foster and the guys at Project Prospect rank the top NL West prospects, and the Padres have eight prospects in the top 25. James Darnell and Jaff Decker rank third and fourth, and are joined in the top 25 by Kellen Kulbacki, Drew Cumberland, Simon Castro, Donovan Tate, Matt Antonelli, and Eric Sogard.

Speaking of prospects, John Sickels posted his top 20 Padres prospects at Minor League Ball. His top five consists of Tate, Castro, Darnell, Decker, and Wynn Pelzer. Talking about the system in general, Sickels likes what he sees:

I felt this system was underrated entering 2009, and things are really looking up here. They’ve got a good mixture of polished bats and upside arms, and adding additional athletic upside in the ‘09 draft just makes things even better. Although they went with more athleticism at the top (Tate, Williams, Sampson) this year, they continued to draft polished college guys in the latter rounds, and I think this strategy will help them. It should also be noted that even the “skill” drafts before 2009 included good athletes like Darnell, Forsythe, Cumberland, Pelzer, and Zawadski. This was never a “tools don’t matter” organization, no matter what people said.

There is some good discussion in the comments too, largely surrounding Jaff Decker’s body type and his future potential.

It was released a few weeks ago, so you’ve probably seen it by now, but for the sake of completeness here is Baseball America’s Padres top 10.

****

While the Padres did get a deal done with Kevin Corriea and most of their other arbitration-eligible players, they decided to non-tender relief pitchers Jackson Quezada and Mark Worrell. Worrell, you may remember, came over from St. Louis in the Khalil Greene trade. He posted some promising numbers in the minors, but did not pitch in the Pads organization due to injuries

If you have any links (or anything you’d like to talk about), feel free to add them in the comments.

by Ben Davey

Sorry for the delay in getting this out, but here it is.  The rotation sould be great with the rotation led by Samspon, Fetter, Reyes, and Sullivan.  However, the big problem is going to be middle relief.  WIll Fort Wayne find a way to bridge the gap from the starters to Erickson.

by Ben Davey

Last year I started going team by team and predicting who would end up where for the 2009 season.  Last year I was right on most of the placements, although I don’t know how many people would have thought that Forsythe would leapfrog Darnell and go to Elsinore.  I had originally planned to start with the Beavers, like I did last year, BUT truth be told I have no idea whats going on with the AAA/Padres roster.  Hopefully with the Rule V draft, the winter meetings, and maybe a trade or two that situation will become a bit clearer.  Until then lets start at the bottom with the first full season minor league team: The Fort Wayne Tin Caps.

Looking at the potential roster this team can be every bit as good as the 2009 Tin Caps team, which  won more games then ANY other team in minor league baseball, and won a MWL championship.

Outfield: The Padres spent their first 2 picks this year drafting speedy athletic outfielders, Donovan Tate and Everett Williams.  While it would be an easy prediction to say that both will be patrolling the Fort Wayne OF in April, it saddly will not be a reality.  After missing all of the 2009 minor league season, Tate once again was withheld from playing this time in the instructional league, and eventually had surgery to repair detached connective tissue in his pubic bone (ouch!).  Donovan Tate will be ready to go by Spring Training, but chances are he will remain behind in extended ST at least to start the season.  We might very well see him in FW in either May or June, but not in April.  Williams on the other hand stayed healthy, played in the AZL, NWL, and instructs, and should be ready to ditch the warm Texas/Arizona sun for the cool temps of Indiana.

So who are the other 2 starting OF?  With Everett starting in CF, I have to look at down in the AZL for the RF.  Rymer Liriano was named one of the top 20 prospects in AZL and did pretty much everything right last year.  He hit .350/.398/.523/.921 while contributing 44 RS, 44 RBI, 8 HR, and 14 SB in just 50 games.  He is also a great fielder with a cannon for an arm.  Liriano’s biggest problem is strikeouts.  That said, while he did post a staggering 52 K in 50 G, the Padres brass should be encouraged by his improvment throughout the year.  In June he posted a .333 OBP with 13 K in 7 games.  July = .406 OBP, 25 K in 23 G.  August = .414 OBP, 14 K in 20 G.  So while he might still be a big strikeout hitter, he is improving a deserves a spot in Ft Wayne.

Last but not leas,t who will be in LF?  My guess is Bo Davis.  Before his injury he destroyed Eugene similar to Robertson in 2008.  He hit .329/.468/.479 with 11 SB, 19 RS and 16 BB in 20 G.  This will give Fort Wayne an OF of 3 CF (again similar to last year with Robertson, Tekotte, and Decker).  We might also see either Cody Decker or Nate Freiman see some time in LF.  And of course we will see a back up OF with Codrolli and possibly either Matt Vern or Griffen Benedict

Infield:
3B:  Well the easiest of the placements this year is the starting 3B of the Tin Caps…Edinson Rincon.  Rincon was named the 2nd best prospect in the NWL this year and will only get better.  For a Dominican prospect Rincon has great patience at the plate.  However like most Dominican prospects Rincon does still have a problem with the K numbers, but definitely has the upside to do great things.

SS:  This is a head scratcher.  Originally I thought this was an easy position.  Jonathan Galvez hit .295/.399/.503/.902 in the AZL.  Combine that with 14 SB, 6 HR and 45 RS in 52 G.  Like Rincon, Galvez is also an extremely patient hitter with 30 BB in 52 G.  He doesn’t turn 19 till Janurary and has a bright future.

BUT, then there is also Jeudy Valdez.

Before last season Tampa Bay asked for Valdez in return for Jeff Niemann.  In hindsight maybe it was a trade the Padres should have made, but it just goes to show you how other teams value him.  Anyway, Valdez has played mainly 2nd but with Belnome more than likely a fixture at 2nd, Valdez might get extended time at short.  Valdez struggled in Fort Wayne while battling injury.  Valdez did play extremely well during his rehab assignment in the AZL.  With Cumberland and Figureoa taking charge of 2nd and short in LE, Valdez will stay in Fort Wayne at least to start the year.

2B:  Despite being a 28th round pick Vince Belnome was arguably the best hitter in the NWL (along with Rincon).  Rincon got called up to Fort Wayne and batted cleanup during their championship run.  Between 2 levels he hit .321/.444/.519/.963 with 10 HR, 57 RS, 54 RBI, and almost as many BB (56) to K (60).  Belnome will be the lynch pin in the middle of the lineup.

1B:  Cody Decker and Nate Freiman will make a powerfull 1-2 punch at 1st (and DH).  Decker was the AZL MVP and Madfriars

hitter of the year.  He hit .354/.421/.717 in AZL.  While Freiman hit .294/.364/.484 in Eugene.  Neither really made anybodies top prospect list but if both can put up close to their numbers that they posted last year, they might turn some heads.

C: Emanuel Quiles and Jason Hagerty will share the duty next year in Fort Wayne.  Quiles could possibly be the best defensive C in the Padres org, but still has a lot to prove offensively.  Hagerty on the other was the Padres 5th round pick but struggled in Eugene.  Hagerty only hit .225//335/.399/.734 last year (which sadly was still a higher OPS than Quilles).  It will be interesting how they play next year.

Final starting lineup:
Everett Williams CF
Jonathan Galvez SS
Vince Belnome 2B
Cody Decker 1B
Rymer Liriano RF
Edinson Rincon 3B
Nate Freiman DH
Emanuel Quiles C
Bo Davis LF

by Ben Davey

All has been quiet over here on Friar Forecast for awhile, and I blame mb, and possibly the rest of the contributors for having lives.  Anyway, I have been busy finishing up my top 30 prospects for madfriars, and that will be posted on here in a few weeks.  So for right now, I am busy pretending to not be sick, and instead of getting that whole “sleep” thing that people always suggest I figured I would do the next best thing….blog about the Padres.

I begin by starting with a universal truth, that we Padre fans hold evident or however that saying goes…”Eckstein is not the answer.” I know, go figure 34 year old 2B with limited range who hit .260/.323/.334 with only 2 HR on the season is not the answer.  So if Ecksein is not the best option for the future 2B of the Padres who is?  While some Padre fans might argue that the Padres next 2B should come from outside the organization, the prospect of that looks grim.  The Padres could spend money and give away prospects to acquire Dan Uggla, or take a flyer out on Kelly Johnson since he lost his starting job in Atlanta, but it would be hard for me to see either of those scenarios happening. So, like most of my posts, I see the Padres 2B of the future coming from within, and I offer up to candidates for the job…Eric Sogard and Lance Zawadzki

Eric Sogard is a 23 year old prospect drafted in the 2nd round in the 07 draft.  In 2008 he was both a mid season and post season Cal League All Star, and recognized by BA as a HIgh Class A All-Star.  This past year he continued his all-star streak by being named to the Texas League All-Star Game.  Sogard is the type of guy that does all the little things to help a team win.  He is a great contact hitter (striking out about 1/11 PA last year), more walks than strike outs, good BA (around .290-300) high OBP (.394 last year 370 this year), and is arguably the best hitter in the Padres system at moving runners.  Sogard is a doubles hitter, but has the power to hit 5-10 HR a year while stealing around 10 bases as well.  Also, arguably the strangest stat, is that while everyone else on the Missions, had great road numbers and horrible home numbers (a lot of comparisons of Wolff Stadium in SA to Petco) Sogard actually hit better .320/.406/.436 at home than on the road: .267/.335/.366. He is an ideal #2 hitter, and the type of player that a lot of us believe we need to have in order to win at Petco….small ball with good mechanics.  Sogard is limited defensively in both range and fielding, but has been something that the Padres’ brass have been working extensively to improve.

Best case scenario he is a .300/.380/.400 guy, who is the ideal #2 hitter to move Cabrera over for the big guns.  Average defender similar to Eckstein.
More Than Likely Scenario:  Still a good contact hitter but hits closer to .268/.345/.360, still has the eye and ability to move runners over and work the count.  A bit below average defensively.

Lance Zawadzki: Is a 24 year old prospect selected in the 4th round of the 2007 draft.  Zawadzki is a very interesting prospect as he arguably the closest to 5 tools as anyone in the Padres upper minor leage levels.  Zawadzki has a strong arm and is more than capable to play at either 2nd or Short.  Offensively he is a switch hitter and has the ability to hit anywhere in the order.  He has the speed (28 SB last year and 17 this year) and OBP (.369) to bat at or near the top.  He has the power (15 HR last year) to bat further down in the lineup.  His .283 career minor league BA and .792 career OPS suggest that he is a legit prospect up the middle.  He as the ability to be a dominant player at either the minor league or major league level, the big thing with him is consistency and cutting down a bit on the strikeouts (101 and 103 the past 2 years).

Best Case Scenario:  .285/.365/.440 with the ability to be a 20/20 guy at the MLB level
More Than Likely Scenario: .260/.340/.400 10-15 HR/SB.  K’s are still a problem but no where near the degree that Khalil had.

So take your pick, do the Padres want consistency, a solid #2 hitter who can get runners over and in, great contact hitter who hits for a fairly high average….OR the potential 5 tool prospect, better defensively, pretty good BA/OBP/SLG but more K?  Its hard to ignore Zawadzki’s potential and not make him the front runner, but Sogard just does so many things right that it would be difficult not to see him on an MLB roster even if it in a reserve role.  Both will more than likely go the hitter friendly PCL, and it will be interesting to see what type of numbers they put up. If one or both of them put up great numbers, could we see Eckstein traded or moved to the bench mid season?  Whether it is mid season, late season, or 2011, I think 2nd base will be another position that the Padres will be able to fill internally with young promising prospects (and hey if one faulters the other can step up….or we might see the resurgence of possibly DOA Matt Antonelli)

Ok 1:30 time to quit ignoring this stupid cold…As always go Padres!

Oh PS:  Zawadzi was named an AFL All-Star and will be in the game tomorrow..err later today

by Ben Davey

BA Posted their top 20 rankings for each league and it was nice to see the Padres get a lot of love. At the time of this post they have only released rankings for High A and below.  Like always these rankings are a mix of projection and results.  Finally not going to go into too much in detail about the rankings, but more to just post them.  All rankings are free content but the reasons for the rankings are all for subscribers only.  Feel free to leave any comment or discussion about the rankings

Rookie League Arizona

Rymer Liriano #4
Aldys Portillo #7
John Galvez #17

I’d like to think that had Portillo done ANYTHING during the AZL season he would have easily been top 5.  Still #7 for a guy that went 1-9 and averaged more then 4.5 BB/9 shows how good of a talent he really is.  I’d also like to think that Galvez could easily be higher on the list if he finally shows that he can play defense.  Either way 2 top 10 and 3 top 20 AZL prospects show the recent strength of the Dominican signings.

The funny thing is that AZL MVP Cody Decker was not even ranked, although that is not surprising as Decker is 22 and a UCLA Grad.  Also of note was that Kelvyn Sampson and Everett Williams would have made the list had they played in more than a few games.

NWL Eugene Emeralds

Edinson Rincon #2
Jerry Sullivan #17

At #2 Rincon ranks as the highest Padre prospect on any list.  There has been some speculation that Sullivan could skip Fort Wayne and go straight to Lake Elsinore, but with Schmidt, Castro, Osuna, Carter, Davis, Watt, etc… I cant see him skipping Fort Wayne.

**Dexter Carter was ranked #15 for the Sally League

MidWest League Fort Wayne Tin Caps

Simon Castro #7
Jaff Decker #8
James Darnell #15

Would have expected Decker to a be a bit higher on the list, but it seems that the only reason for the ranking is some bad information that was given to Jim Callis.  In his writeup  he basically stated, as Ryan619 eloquently wrote, “If you listened to Callis, you’d think Decker is a blue whale.”  A fair ranking and I dont see Decker farther down then #2 or 3.

California League:  Lake Elsinore Storm

Wynn Pelzer #8
James Darnell #10
Cory Luebke #12
Logan Forsythe #17
Craig Italiano #19

Interesting that Darnell was ranked #15 in the MWL but #10 in the Cal League.  Jim Callis did the rankings for the MWL while Dave Perkin did the rankings for the Cal League.  Could this be a difference in opinion on Darnell or does it say something about the strength of the MidWest League?  Either way good to see Darnell getting some love.  Also, I think it is funny that Luebke who absolutely DESTROYED the Cal League was only ranked #12.

So the moral of the story is without even getting to AA or AAA (not that I think anyone on the AAA roster has a chance to make league top 20) the Padres are showing promise in the minor league system and it is is actually being recognized by BA.

by Ben Davey

With the team already possessing players like Kyle Blanks and Adrian Gonzalez, it was a huge surprise for many Padre fans when the team took Allan Dykstra with its first pick in the 2008 draft.  After hearing all the interviews about his back problems and whether or not the Padres were going to sign him, he finally signed on the dotted line on the last day.  He was immediately sent to Lake Elsinore to help them with their playoff run and fared pretty well going .292/.469/.458/.927 in 7 games.  Of course it was a small sample size, but I got to see him play at Petco park, and I have to say I quickly became fine with the pick after I saw this gigantic behemoth of a player crush a few balls during BP.

Enter 2009, and a combination of Allan Dykstra and Matt Clark (between 1st and DH) were bent on destroying the Midwest League.  One of them succeeded and was moved to Lake Elsinore.  But it was not the first round pick.

Instead it was Matt Clark who currently leads the Padres Minor League System with 24 home runs.  Dykstra on the other hand was hitting .210/.399/.352/.752.  Yes the 58 walks in 63 games were impressive, but the .210 BA, 4 home runs, and 56 Ks were not.  I will admit that I myself quickly soured on Dykstra chalking him up to another failed top pick (Bush, Schmidt, Carillo, Anton).  In fact, he got even worse in July as he hit only .159 and saw his overall BA drop below .200.  On July 31st he looked dead in the water, and was no longer batting his customary 4th or 5th spot but went all the way down to 7th.

In an interview in early August with the boys at Madfriars, Grady Fuson had this to say about Dykstra
“There are some things that we probably under scouted in that swing that have come to our attention and are limiting him from putting up the kind of numbers that we thought he would put up or certainly what he wants to put up.”"

So if they were tinkering and cleaning up his swing it looks like it might have finally paid off.   Since August 1st Dykstra has 31 H, 5 2B, 5 HR, 13 RS, 18 RBI, 18 BB, 24 K in 95 AB.  Or a .326/.434/.537/.971 (including Sept 2nds game).  It has raised his overall stats to a .228 BA and .778 OPS both of which are season highs for Dykstra.  From looking at game data, his line drive percentage is up, his BA is up, and he is hitting the ball with authority.  Heck, he has more homeruns in the past month +1 game then he did in the entire 1st half of the season.  He was even named the MWL player of the week for the week of 8/23

So is the Allan Dykstra of the past month the actual Allan Dykstra that led the Padres to chose him #1, or can this just be contributed to a fairly long hot streak?  Have the Padres roving instructors and staff at Fort Wayne managed to clean up his swing enough that he is finally to produce like he did at Wake Forrest?

One thing for certain is as Fort Wayne prepares to take the #1 seed into the MWL playoffs it is great to have their big first baseman hitting on all cylinders and makes the already extremely deadly lineup in Fort Wayne even more toxic to opposing pitchers.