Mat Latos has had a fantastic season.  He has struck out 106 batters compared to only 30 walks in 112 innings pitched.  His 2.48 ERA is accompanied by 11 wins to 4 losses.  Not bad for a second year pitcher.

Latos has great stuff.  His 94 mph fastball is 1.63 runs above average per 100 pitches, and he throws it about 60 percent of the time.  His slider is actually better on a per-pitch basis–2.82 runs above average per 100 pitches–and is thrown one quarter of the time.  Latos’s change-up, his next most frequently thrown pitch is also over a run per hundred pitches above average.

Basically, Latos is young, has good stuff, and has learned how to use that stuff effectively.

The thing is, as good as Latos has been, he has not been 2.48 ERA good.  His FIP stands at 3.35, and his xFIP is 3.51.  Both numbers are incredibly solid, but suggest that Latos has been a bit lucky this season.

The main driver has been a ridiculously low BABIP.  Latos’s BABIP is a miniscule 0.251, fourth lowest in the National League amongst Fangraph’s qualified pitchers.

Latos has also been great at stranding runners, rather than allowing them to score.  His 84.2 percent strand rate is also fourth lowest in the National League (Wade LeBlanc at 85.7 percent leads the league).

Mat Latos is a solid pitcher, and projects to be very good going forward.  But, a low BABIP, low strand rate, and the wonders of Petco Park have combined to make a good pitcher look like a Cy-Young pitcher.  Latos might be one some day, but he is not there quite yet.

Before the season, it was reported that Mat Latos would probably be limited to around 150 innings. The idea is to limit a young pitcher’s workload and to gradually work the pitcher up to a 200+ innings/year level. Pushing a young pitcher who may not be prepared for the rigors of ~200 major league innings is a recipe for disaster.

Or so they say. This theory is largely based on the “Verducci Effect,” which says that pitchers under the age of 25 who experience an increase in workload of 30 or more innings see injury and/or a decrease in performance in the subsequent season. The Verducci Effect has been challenged and debunked, at least to some degree. There’s still a ton of work to be done in predicting injuries — we certainly don’t have any definitive answers, especially on any individual pitcher — thus we cannot just say that a dramatic increase in innings pitched for a young hurler will lead to injury and decreased performance. It might, it might not.

Anyhow, before the season, the San Diego Padres probably did not expect to be sitting atop the NL West in late June, with a 42-29 record. If the Padres play just .450 baseball from here on out, they will finish with 83 wins – in other words, at this point, a playoff run is very probable. Prior to the season, the Padres also probably did not expect Mat Latos to be the staff ace, carrying a 2.93 ERA in 86 innings (8.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, .94 HR/9).

With these new factors – the Padres playoff chances and Latos’ performance – added to the mix, it complicates the decision-making process regarding Latos’ workload. Sure, it’s a nice problem to have, but it’s also one that is extremely hard to make. Flags fly forever, as they say, and Latos is an important part of the Padres success. If he keeps pitching at this rate, I predict he’ll make about 31 starts, good for 190 innings. If the Padres cut him off at 150 innings, he’ll probably miss six or seven starts – or late August and all of September. Critical starts when the Padres will need him most.*

There’s the other side of the coin, too. Is it worth risking Latos’ future in an attempt to reach the playoffs right now? Latos is under control and cheap, and he has a chance to provide a lot of surplus value over the next few years, perhaps developing into a Jake Peavy-like ace, if things break right. Throwing him 190 innings in his first full season, many of them likely critical, high leverage innings down the stretch run, not to mention potential playoff innings, could do a lot to damage Latos’ future impact with the organization.

The good news is that the Padres don’t have to make a decision anytime soon, and they indicate as much in an article by Bill Center at the Union-Tribune. By the time we get to late August, maybe things will take care of themselves, and the decision will be made easier. Or, perhaps the Padres will be in the thick of a playoff race and Latos will still be performing well, making the decision that much tougher. We’ll have to wait and see.

*If there really is a set number, like 150, it might make sense for the Padres to rest Latos now and bring him back for the stretch-run. This would certainly be an out-on-a-limb strategy, with potential negative side-effects, but it might make sense, saving Latos – and having him well rested – for the late-season playoff chase.

On the same day that 22 year old Mat Latos threw his first CG shutout, a fellow 22 year old top pitching prospect named Simon Castro led the San Antonio Missions to only their third win in May (3-9 this month). This win has led many to look at the young Dominican phenom and liken him to last year’s top pitching prospect Mat Latos. These optimistic fans have even gone as far as saying that Castro should be on the same path to the majors as Latos. Let me make this clear, baring catastrophic injuries, and a drastic fall from contention we will not see Simon Castro don a San Diego Padres uniform in the next 3.5 months. These are different players, with a different front office, different prospects ahead of him, and most importantly a different year.

Lets just get the similarities out of the way. Both are 22 (Latos is 4 months older). Both were the #1 pitching prospect in the organization at the time. Both players skipped Lake Elsinore after obliterating Fort Wayne. Both players led the Mission’s rotation despite being the youngest member. Finally both players have #1 potential.

The single biggest factors that surround a top prospects promotion are how well the team is doing, relative strength at the position, and of course money. Last year the Padres were out of contention by the all star break and had already used 10 starters. Of those 10 starters only Peavy (traded), and Stauffer (1 start prior to ASG), had an ERA below 4. In fact the next lowest was Correia at 4.50 and Gaudin (traded) at 5.03. Needless to say the Padres were in desperate need of a starter. In addition the Padres also had flexibility in the 40 man as players like Geer, Silva, Hill, Floyd, etc… could all be DFA or placed on the 60 day DL without much of a concern. They had given other pitchers like Leblanc Geer, and Banks a shot but none were remotely effective.

Enter Mat Latos who after 4 G in Fort Wayne (25.1 IP, 10 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 27 K) was promoted to AA where he was equally as impressive (5-1, 1.91 ERA, 47 IP, 32 H, 9 BB, 46 K). So we have a team out of contention, with a desperate need for starters, other pitching prospects flailing, room on the 40 man, and Latos tearing up AA. Why not promote Latos at that time, especially since it was late enough into the season to not have to worry about Super 2 status.

This year is a different story. The team is currently in first place with the best record in the NL. In addition they are first in the NL in ERA (2.61), 2nd in BAA (.220), 2nd in OPS (.627), 1st in WHIP (1.16), and 5th in QS (17). Every starter has an ERA below 4! Castro is the #1 Padre pitching prospect (#2 overall), and was voted by scout.com as the #12 pitching prospect in all of baseball, and is currently leading the Missions and if he continues on his pace will probably be deserving of a promotion come the all star break. However, while his stats might be deserving the Padres are in contention, have crazy rotation depth (provided Stauffer recovers from his appendicitis and Correia comes back as the same pitcher after the untimely death of his brother), and do not have the flexibility on the 40 man that they did last year. Even if the Padres do begin to falter the current Padre rotation of Garland (30), Coreia (29), Richard (27), LeBlanc (25), and Latos (22) is still extremely young. Also I would have to think that if Garland is traded or someone goes on the DL there is still CY (if he is ever healthy), Stauffer (extremely deserving), Ramos, and Liz who are all on the 40 man roster and will probably have a shot before Castro.

Finally some people have mentioned that if Castro did not follow in the footsteps of Latos, than maybe his path would look more like David Price who was a September call up and helped the Rays into the playoffs and eventually WS. While this scenario is more likely, meaning Castro getting a September call up, the Padres have even better bullpen depth. Russell faced 14 hitters during his last call up with the Padres and retired 13 of them (1 walk), and yet because of depth was sent back down to the minors. The Padres have shown that the big 3 (Bell, Adams, and Gregerson) are nearly unhitable, Stauffer and his 0.49 ERA as a reliever, throw in Russell, Webb, Thatcher, Mujica, and even Ramos and Gallagher and this is one of the best pens in baseball. This isnt even considering the Padres have both the closers at AA (Italiano) and AAA (Frieri) on the 40 man and both are doing extremely well in their perspective leagues. So making the big assumption that every thing stays the way it is come September, tell me what is the point of calling up Castro if there is no place to play him? The Padres wouldnt call him up just to cross their fingers that we play another 22 inning game against the Rockies…

Despite Castro not being Latos or even David Price (talk about setting the bar low), Castro will be in San Diego soon enough. While it would have probably happened anyway, Castro will with 100% certainty be placed on the 40 man roster by November as he would be Rule V eligible. Now whether he starts 2011 in the Padres rotation remains to be seen. No matter the outcome the future looks extremely bright for this potential number starter, and while the temptation might be there, there is no need to rush.

by Daniel Gettinger

The HotStove.com guys asked: “Bearing in mind that Spring Training stats are essentially meaningless, who among the Padres’ players have helped or hurt themselves the most with their performances this spring?”

My response:

The San Diego Padres most interesting spring battle is for the fifth slot in the rotation. Of the candidates for that role, Wade LeBlanc has probably helped himself the most. Thus far, he has a 2.00 ERA, five strikeouts, and only one walked allowed in nine innings pitched. Sure the sample size is small, but the Padres will need to base their decision on something. If LeBlanc continues to pitch well, he may very well earn a job in the rotation.

Honestly, I am not sure any player can really help or hurt himself via spring performance.  The sample sizes are just too small, and spring statistics hold almost no predictive power.  Sure Matt Antonelli has an 0.825 OPS in TWENTY-FOUR plate appearences, and Wade LeBlanc has a 2.0 ERA in his NINE innings, but those numbers are essentially meaningless.

LeBlanc may earn a job in the rotation, but so too might Sean Gallagher, Tim Stauffer, or Mat Latos. Regardless of who wins the job coming out of the spring, all of those guys will get a chance at some point during the season.  Injuries happen.  People are ineffective.  Teams use more than five starters over the course of a season.

by Ben Davey

As I have referenced in almost all of my previous posts, the Portland Beaver’s pitching will be by far the toughest thing to accurately predict. There is a large crop of talent that will be battling for a few spots on the AAA rotation and pen. In a normal offseason, you might see a couple of the AAA main starters leave, a few be promoted to the San Diego Padres major league club, and only one or two remaining for a repeat tour of AAA. And to some extent that remains true for this offseason.

Last year the Beavers had 12 starters make at least 5 starts for the Beavers, and none of them made more than 20 starts (Leblanc). Of those 12, Josh Banks, Walter Silva, Michael O’Connor, Brian Lawrence, and Josh Geer will all definitely be gone. Sean Gallagher is out of options, and will be with the Padres, and Matt Buschmann will be out of the rotation and battling for a bullpen spot (if he’s not released). The sad thing is that already leaves the Beavers with 5 members from last years team (Poreda, Leblanc, Inman, Carrillo, Ramos), and thats not including players moving up from AA or a certain top prospect moving down from the majors.

Last year the Beavers ranked 10th (of 16) in ERA at 4.56, 13th in K (907), and 10th in WHIP (1.44). I will say that we should expect some improvement in this number as a lot of the “fat” (see above) has been cut, and of course the addition of a certain “no longer rookie” top pitching prospect will help too. So with that being said I will go through the starters and relievers, starting with the locks, and moving down to the “good luck” players. Note, I am assuming 12 pitchers (5 starters, 7 relievers on the roster).

One of the most interesting things about this staff is it could feature 3 pitchers who at one point were their teams #1 overall prospect (Latos, Poreda, Carrillo), another that was ranked in the top 100 overall prospects (Inman), plus another supplemental first (Ramos), an 2nd round (Leblanc) pick. On paper this rotation is crazy good…

Locks:

Mat Latos (22, RHP)- Last year Latos jumped from Low A to the Padres and is no longer a rookie (by 1 inning). He has a career minor league record of 12-8, 2.49 ERA, 184 IP, 216 K. Anyone reading this does not need me to tell you how great Latos is.  He has a Mid 90’s fastball, above average secondary pitches, and improved command and mechanics that he has shown in ST so far. He could easily end up being the Padres ace by seasons end, but with Gallagher and Stauffer both out of options, Latos is 95% sure to start the season in AAA to gain a bit more experience (only 47 IP in AA or AAA) before coming back to the bigs.

Aaron Poreda (23, LHP) Like Latos, he was at one point the White Sox top prospect. He is a big lefty, with a big time fastball. That alone will give him every chance possible to succeed. At the top end, his ceiling is probably a legit #2 starter. Now the likelihood of him reaching that potential… (hint this will be a reoccurring theme). He needs to be able to spot the fastball and work on his secondary pitches. He spent all of the off season working with the Padres staff, so we will see when the season starts if that makes a difference.

Wade Leblanc (25, LHP) Honestly, Leblanc has nothing left to prove in AAA. He has logged over 259 AAA innings, and will be starting his 3rd go around with the Beavers. What else is there to say? Best change-up in the organization, decent fastball and secondary pitches. He doesnt project nearly as high as Poreda or Latos, but could easily be a solid lefty #4 or 5 starter for a big league team…just waiting for his shot (again)

Battling it Out:

Cesar Carrillo (25, RHP) I was debating whether to put him in the locked category or not, but if I did that would be 4 locks for 5 spots so I thought #1 on the next list. Carrillo is a top prospect who was derailed by TJ surgery in 2007. Since then Carrillo has struggled to regain his form since then. His ceiling would be a solid #3 starter in the big leagues. At his best Carrillo can consistently hit 94 on the gun, has an above average curve used as a great K pitch, and a solid change. Well by the end of last season we saw the FB speed return, but the command was gone, the curve went from a hammer to a slow looper…but the change improved netting him more GB outs. Reports from ST are promising, the command is better and the curve looks sharper. If this carries over to the regular season we will see a lower ERA, more K, and a way better overall pitcher. I’m optimistic and he’s my sleeper pick so stay tuned on Carrillo.

Cesar Ramos (25, LHP) Ramos had some bad luck last season. After a disappointing 2008 season (9-11 5.29 ERA in 149 IP in Portland) Ramos seemed like a completely different pitcher in 2009, and due to injuries and bad pitching in SD it looked like Ramos would get to taste the big leagues early in 2009. Unfortunately after a great start on 5-23 (6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K) he was injured in his next and final start for 3 months lasting only 1.1 IP (4 ER). When he returned he couldnt quite duplicate his earlier success. Ramos is another guy who has logged way too many AAA innings (226) and will begin his 3rd season with the Beavers. He is a back of the rotation starter without the ++ pitch like Leblanc’s change. His FB can get up to the low 90’s but he is mainly a 2 pitch pitcher as his slider is a big ?. Still he is on the 40 man roster, so that counts for something.

Will Inman (23, RHP) Pre-2007 ranked as the #91 prospect in all of baseball (BA). At 23 Inman is still considered young for AAA, but has spent the last 3 years between AA and AAA. His future went from incredibly bright to fading fast. In 2007 he was top 5 in all minor league pitchers with 180 K, but that number has steadily declined. Last year he was shelled in Portland going 1-4, 6.71 ERA, in 12 starts. And as such was not protected (added to the 40 man roster) for the Rule V draft. His greatest + and - is his delivery. It is incredibly deceptive, but is a mechanical nightmare. The Padres have done everything from tweaking the mechanics to changing the arm angle, and this offseason they taught him a new pitch…the cutter. We will see if it makes a difference, but it should be viewed as a slap in the face that not only was he not placed on the 40 man roster, but Inman was invited to big league camp. Inman can still turn into a solid big league starter, he just needs to get everything in order first…

Ernesto Frieri (24, RHP) Went 10-9 with a 3.59 ERA in AA last year, and was the Missions most consistent pitcher throughout the year. Frieri was 8th in the Texas League in ERA, 3rd in K (118), 3rd in BAA (.237), 3rd in runners stranded % (74.2), but was also 4th in BB allowed. He was added to the Padres 40 man roster and in 2 games last year did not allow a hit striking out 2 and walking 1. He consistently sits in the low 90’s with his fastball (topping out at 95), and has an improved curve. The change is still a WIP, and he needs to gain better control with the curve, but his ability to spot the FB with a good deceptive delivery makes him a nightmare to hit against. He has earned a chance to start in AAA but will it be given to him?

Steve Garrison (23, LHP) Well at least this will be slightly easy. He will start the season on the DL after injuring his knee on his very last pitch of the AFL (he got the out), his timeline is set for May. Garrison is another bad luck pitcher. Mechanically he is a dream for pitching coaches, everything is smooth and fluid. Despite this Garrison was the one to go down with the arm injury in 2008. Before that Garrison had yielded 1 run or fewer in 10 of his 24 starts in AA (2008), including a 7 inning no hitter in April. Garrisons best feature is his control. Throughout his career has averaged fewer than a BB every 4 IP (2.21 BB/9). Garrison can locate his FB (87-90 mph) with pinpoint control. He is also able to throw both the slider and curve with good control and movement. He has an improving change, and when used with the rest of his pitches is a good change of pace pitch. On occasion Garrison will miss with control, and when that happens he gets shelled. Garrison was added to the 40 man roster, and while he doesnt have the ceiling of any of the players above him, he is the closest to reaching that ceiling. Best case scenario he ends up being a great back of the rotation lefty starter. When he is on he can be successful at any level, when hes off well thats another story (think BLaw circa 2002 (210 IP, 3.69 ERA)). The Padres will give Garrison every chance to show his success, and will be given a spot come May.

Others of note that have a chance (barely) Corey Luebke, Matt Buschmann, Nathan Culp, Stephen Faris….and because I want to throw it out there CLAYTON RICHARD (haha). Thats 7 quality pitchers for 5 spots, and 1 coming off the DL in May.

My guess: Latos, Leblanc, Carrillo, Poreda, Inman (R/L/R/L/R).  I think Ramos starts in the pen, and Frieri could be moved to the AA pen or take the #5 spot away from Inman.

On Thursday I will look at the candidates for the 7 bullpen spots, Perdomo, Russel, Webb, Burke, DeMark, Gomes, Scribner, Worrel, Ellis, and of course the players listed above. Not only who will make the team but who will be the closer, 8th and 7th guys? Is there a chance Frieri becomes the closer? Does Burke keep the role, or does Scribner and the triple headed monster coming up from AA take over? On the bright side survival of the fittest should mean a better overall team, even if it means we let players go that end up having solid MLB career (or at least MLB careers).

by Mike Rogers

Over at Project Prospect, there’s a nice and informative scouting report on the swing of 1st year pro, James Darnell. I had a three part series that looked at the 2008 college bats the Padres took in June of 2008 and I loved everything about James Darnell’s college statistics. I’m still a big time Darnell fan and think the former South Carolina Gamecock can be, at the very least, an average right fielder in the majors (not sure he can stick at third).

The scouting report makes a very interesting swing comparison: Justin Upton. Now, Steve Carter (who is using an alias but did play college baseball), cautioned he’s not expecting near the offensive production of Upton, but that they do have similar swings. An excerpt from the conclusion:

Darnell has the tools, ability, and swing to be a very solid offensive 3rd baseman. Eighteen home runs and a .998 OPS between Low-A Fort Wayne and High-A Lake Elsinore is certainly nothing to scoff at. But, the real test for Darnell will come at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Then we will find out if he is just a polished college hitter pounding A-ball pitching, or a legitimate prospect. If he can improve his upper body pattern and make a few other refinements, he could go from a potential Casey Blake with patience type, and move toward his ceiling of a pre-2009 breakout Ryan Zimmerman with a higher on base percentage.

So, there’s some things to like. Casey Blake with patience definitely isn’t anything to scoff at and Ryan Zimmerman with better OBP is very good outcome as well. There’s a lot to like about Darnell.

Now, while you’re perusing the Project Prospect website, feel free to read my PITCHf/x look at Jake Arrieta, a Baltimore Orioles right-handed pitcher. Yeah, it’s self-promotion and I will not be ashamed of it! Why should you read about an Orioles pitching prospect? Well, because I’ll be writing these types of pieces for Project Prospect when prospects make their debuts. So, I want you to get used to the format for when I pen my piece on Mat Latos (which I already looked at his debut right here for FF) through the PITCHf/x lens.

by Mike Rogers

UPDATE: Unfortunately, as I was doing this this evening, I mistakenly lumped Latos’ curveball’s in with his change-up’s. I have since fixed this, and re-written the paragraph on his change as well as penned one on his curveball. Whoops.

I’m just going to get this out of the way: I did not see one single pitch Mat Latos threw, unfortunately. I was busy and missed both his abbreviated outing in the Future’s Game, as well as his Major League Debut last night against the Colorado Rockies.

Here’s what I know about him: he can throw the baseball. Hard.

These graphs are made possible by Harry Pavlidis and his Pitch Flight tool.

First up, are the release points. Click on both images to enlarge.

That y-axis is in feet. That means, Mat Latos is “releasing” (data’s actually recorded 50 feet from home plate, I believe, so it’s not “true” release point) the baseball from nearly 7 feet in the air. He’s a big boy as it is, and his tall-and-fall mechanics lead to an even higher, over the top release point.

Now, on to the PITCHf/x flight path graphs. What this shows me is the movement of each of his pitches on its way to home plate. This sort of thing is hard to read for some people, so I am willing to answer any and all questions on it later tonight.

The Fastball (the green line) — 56 of his 70 pitches recorded by PITCHf/x were fastballs and all were coded as 4-seam fastballs. He averaged 94.9 MPH on them. From the graph, I see a very straight heater which is what I saw when I graphed out his Future’s Game performance on the message boards over at Project Prospect. I don’t see a lot of downward movement on his fastball from this outing against the Rockies, either, but coming from such a high release, I’m sure it’s difficult to hit. Ideally, though, you’d like to see a fastball that bends or sinks more than Latos’ does.

The Change-up (the red line) — Latos has a big time arm, but I think his secondary offerings are where his bread is buttered. He threw just one change-up and it clocked in at 82.2 MPH. It came from a lower release point (1st base view) than his other three pitches, but that’s likely because he threw just one of them. Good dive on it and a decent amount of tailing action.

The Slider (the yellow-ish line) — He threw only 8 of these at an average velocity of 82.5 MPH. He’s got a little sweeping action on it (bird’s eye view) and has a lot of downward movement, as well. Both his change-up and his slider compliment his fastball extremely well due to their similar release points, but both dive well below his fastball. I really like both of these offerings much more than his fastball.

The Curveball (the blue line) — He threw five of these averaging 81.8 MPH. It seems very 12-6 but with good drop on it. It comes from the same plane and arm slot as his fastball and follows it pretty well, but it’s kind of slurve-y which leads me to believe that his slider and his curveball are the same pitch, just classified differently by gameday. I’ll defer to Harry Pavlidis’ week New Arms Roundup on Beyond the Boxscore this weekend.

Conclusion

First off, I need to say that there really aren’t any “conclusions” from his outings that were recorded by PITCHf/x. He threw just 8 pitches in the Future’s game and then another 70 last night. That sample is too small to draw any hard conclusions. However, it’s enough to give a decent hypothesis on Latos and his stuff. He’s got the tall-and-fall mechanics with a clean arm action and they seem to be repeatable. Some have panned his mechanics but that’s likely due to not being a fan of the tall-and-fall motion. Alex Eisenberg over at Baseball-Intellect said he’s not a fan of tall-and-fall but that he doesn’t see a red flag from Latos, despite that motion.  I trust Alex’s opinion and some others in the Project Prospect forums have expressed opinions similar to Alex’s: not a fan of that style of pitching (would prefer drop-and-drive), but for what it is, it isn’t overly cringe-worthy.

His stuff features a big time fastball in velocity, but I’d like to see him throw more 2-seamers as his 4-seamer is very straight in both horizontal and vertical movement. His breaking ball and his change-up are great compliments to it — it’s easy to see why Latos’ stuff is heralded. Now, if he can only stay on the field.

Edit to my conclusion: I am not sure what exactly type breaking ball he throws, but they seem to be very similar.

by Daniel Gettinger

Corey Brock is reporting that the Padres are likely to call up pitcher Mat Latos “this weekend for a start against the Rockies at PETCO Park.”  Latos has dominated minor league pitchers this season.  In 47 AA innings, he has 46 strikeouts to only 9 walks.  He has not yet allowed a homerun.  Stats aside, while he may be close to ready to face major league batters, I am indifferent about this move.

Because Latos has thrown only 56 innings in each of his past 2 seasons, a Latos call-up is likely to be short lived.  He has already thrown 72 innings this season, and assuming the Padres will not allow him to double his workload from last season, he only has 40 innings left.  That’s 6 or 7 starts, and a late August shut-down.

From a development standpoint, I would guess a call-up this season could be a somewhat good thing.  Latos will get a chance to experience life in the majors, be challenged by major league hitters, and have a better sense of what skills and pitches require further work.  If Latos holds his own in this stint, it could very well act as a precursor to a full season* in next year’s rotation.

*Of course, his innings next season will need to be closely monitored as well.

There are however some potential drawbacks to such an early call-up for Latos.  First, he accrues service time; not a huge concern since he will be shut down in a few weeks, but definitely something to consider.  More importantly, coming out of college, there were some concerns about Latos’s temperament.  He has only experienced success in the minors, but I worry that if he initially struggles in the majors, he may lose some confidence.  I have no idea how to quantify the effect of lost confidence, but it cannot be a good thing.  I also worry about Latos trying to do too much.  He might be so eager to impress that he overthrows his pitches and deviates from his usual mechanics, resulting in an increased injury risk.

The risks associated with a Latos call-up may be unlikely and small in magnitude, but the rewards are not large either.  Overall I am indifferent, but I am certainly looking forward to watching him pitch.