by Daniel Gettinger

• As a team the San Diego Padres have performed pretty much as expected.  They are currently 6-6 with a slightly positive run differential.  I still think 75-80 wins is a realistic expectation for this team.
• Chase Headley has been locked in offensively, but his defense needs immediate improvement.  He has five errors in 32 chances.  UZR data is not yet available for this season, and even if it was, the sample would be too small to be meaningful.  But Headley’s defense has been so bad that much of his offensive value has likely been negated.
• Will Venable needs to stop swinging at so many pitches out of the strike zone.  He has swung at 34 percent of the pitches out of the zone.  His lack of plate discipline thus far has resulted in a minuscule 4.7 percent walk rate.  Venable has never shown a ton of plate discipline (in either the majors or the minors).  It is something he will need to work on if he wants to become an above average player.
• Perhaps last season was no fluke for Kevin Correia after all.  He’s looked pretty solid.
• Gregerson’s and Adams’ artificially high ERAs are not reflective of the way they have been pitching.
• The Padres bullpen has a lot of good pitchers.  I remain convinced the team will not miss Heath Bell too much once he is traded.
• Labrum surgery is not Tommy John surgery.  Many pitchers never fully recover after having labrum surgery.  They almost never come back stronger.  I hope we have not seen the last of Chris Young as an effective pitcher, but there is a non- trivial chance that might be the case.  (As an aside, I had labrum surgery four months ago, and can certainly understand what Young is going through.  At times the shoulder feels great, but often tightens up after being tested a bit).
• Mat Latos will be fine.  He has given up too many homeruns, but his 30 percent HR/FB rate is nowhere near sustainable.  Braden Looper had the major league’s highest HR/FB rate last season (amongst qualified pitchers), and he was only at 15 percent.  With Latos pitching half of his games at Petco Park, he is highly unlikely to continue serving up home runs at such a high rate.
• Adrian Gonzalez is fantastic.  Nobody wants to pitch to him, and I don’t blame them.  Some team will get an excellent player and the Padres will be properly compensated for trading that excellent player.

by Daniel Gettinger

The San Diego Padres have supposedly made it a priority to run the bases more aggressively this season. The theory is the team has more athletes than in previous seasons, guys who can use their legs to take that extra base and score from first on a double.  What seems to have excited fans is the prospect of the Padres stealing more bases.

Although stolen bases are exciting, I do not believe the Padres should be stealing a lot more this season than last season.

In 2009, the Padres stole 82 bases, and were caught stealing 29 times, for a success rate just under 74 percent.  To offset the risk of making an out, a team must steal successfully between 65 percent and 70 percent of the time. In expectation, the Padres gained about 1 run by stealing bases in 2009.

It is possible that the Padres might be have a higher SB percentage in 2010, but I would not bet on it.  This season, the team’s greatest threats to steal are Everth Cabrera, Tony Gwynn, and Will Venable.  Chase Headley steals, but he is more of a situational base stealer than frequent threats to run.  David Eckstein, Adrian Gonzalez, Kyle Blanks, and Nick Hundley rarely attempt to steal.  There is not a noticeable difference in speed on this season’s team compared to last season’s.

For his career, Gwynn is a 71 percent base stealer, Venable is at 77 percent, and Cabrera is at 74 percent. There is no reason to believe that more stolen base attempts will improve the SB percentage for the guys who will probably have the most attempts.  In fact, if we assume that players choose their attempts optimally, more attempts are likely to decrease their stolen base percentage once we control for differences in times on-base.

Lets however be generous and assume the Padres can steal at a 74 percent level no matter how many steals they attempt.  Even if the Padres doubled their stolen bases attempted to 222, the Padres would only be expected to gain about 2.5 runs over not stealing at all.

If the Padres both doubled their stolen bases and increased their SB percentage to 80 percent, the team could gain an additional 8.5 runs (11 in total).  However, given only one major league team attempted more than 222 stolen bases last season (the Rays with 255) and only two teams exceeded an 80 percent success rate (the Rangers at 80.5 percent and the Phillies at 80.9 percent), I find it unlikely that the Padres could achieve such a feat.

Good base running, what the team seems to be stressing, is an easy way to maximize talent.  However, attempting more stolen bases, which the fans seem to be stressing, is unlikely to have much of an effect on wins/losses.  Last season’s worst stolen base team, the Rockies cost themselves approximately 7 runs by poor base stealing.  The best team, the Rangers gained 10 runs.  The difference from worst to first was less than 2 wins.  The difference between the Padres and the Rangers was less than 1 win.  Stolen bases are exciting, but there’s no need to cry for more of them.  It just won’t matter that much.

by Myron Logan

Recently, I have been thinking about possible storylines for the upcoming season; what we are going to be watching. I think, for the most part, they involve sorting out the future of this team, and not necessarily winning games (though we will accept winning games, too).

I thought we could run through some different issues in separate posts, as sort of a disjointed season preview, touching on major topics (like where Adrian Gonzalez will play his games post all-star break) and micro ones (Cabrera’s fielding or Gwynn’s bat, for example).

Anyway, Everth Cabrera broke onto the scene with a surprising rookie year, making the huge jump from A-ball to the majors as a rule 5 pick. He not only stuck in the bigs, he clearly turned himself from borderline prospect to potential long-term contributor. He had shown plenty of offensive talent in the minors, so perhaps his season with the bat — .255/.342/.361 – should not have been that much of a surprise. He is not a power hitter, and probably will not turn into one, but he combines enough speed and patience to be a solid offensive contributor, especially at shortstop and in Pecto Park.

The CHONE projections, despite pegging him as nearly a league-average offensive player (again, quite a feat coming from a guy who had never played above A ball until last year), have him as a 1 WAR player next year. That is not bad, but it is not exactly earth-shattering either. Why so low? His fielding. CHONE projects his fielding to be 10 runs worse than the average shortstop next year. Considering that is a projection, and not raw numbers based on relatively few opportunities, it is somewhat disheartening.

UZR, available on FanGraphs as well, was also not a fan of Cabrera’s glove-work last year, putting him at nearly 12 runs below average. It was not just an error issue either, as he was equally bad in error runs and range runs (about –6 in each category). The only bright spot was his double play rating, which was just slightly above average.

For even further evidence of his defensive shortcomings, by the numbers, the data available at THT is also not encouraging. Cabrera came in last in the NL, among qualifiers, in RZR (plays in his zone turned into outs). His play out of his zone was respectable, but overall he still comes out well below average.

The good news is that Cabrera is young and talented, so these early numbers do not necessarily show who he is going to turn into on the defensive side of the ball. The other good news is that they may be wrong, or at least too pessimistic. Baseball America 2009 called Everth’s shift to short in 2008 “seamless,” and reported that he showed solid range and arm strength there. The Fans Scouting Report results were also positive, ranking Cabrera as the tenth best SS in the majors, and giving him excellent grades in “first few steps,” “speed”,” and “arm strength.”.

It is possible that the numbers do not represent his actual performance from last year; that due to whatever biases, they did not grade his fielding properly. It is also definitely possible that, despite a bad initial showing, he could develop into an average (even elite) fielder, with good coaching and hard work on his part. Of course, it is also possible that he just is not good with the glove.

Whether Everth Cabrera becomes a staple at the 6 hole for this Padres team may very well come down to what kind of value he ends up providing in the field. His development in this area of his game is something to keep a close eye on this year.

by Daniel Gettinger

The rule IV draft is fun for fans of losing teams.  It is an outlet for hope, and adds a little excitement to an otherwise dull season.  It also helps highlight the importance of consistently developing major league quality players from within, and helps educate fans about concepts such as team control.

Recently, a reader, who like many of us, followed the draft carefully, and keeps close tabs on the Padres’ minor league system, asked an interesting question: “Now that the draft is over, which of the Padres’ young players should they lock up, buying out their arbitration years”?

The answer: Nobody.

Let me explain.

While buying out the arbitration years of young star players is often a good idea, unless the player is an Albert Pujols/Evan Longoria/Hanley Ramirez type star, I see no reason to negotiate in the first three years of team control.  In those years, teams are able to pay players the minimum allowable salary, regardless of their production.

It is not until arbitration that players are compensated based on their performance.  Even then, things do not immediately get too expensive for teams.  A general rule of thumb is that players earn 40% of what they are worth in their first year of arbitration, 60% in their second year, and 80% in their third year.  That is a lot of surplus value.  Particularly in the first year where a player worth $20 million is only expected to earn $8 million.

Buying out a player’s arbitration years early can save teams money, but it is also risky.  An injury or dip in performance can make a commitment look silly quickly.  When the alternative is going year-by-year at greatly discounted salaries, the decision is usually pretty simple.

As I mentioned, unless the player is an obvious star, I do not believe teams should negotiate in the first three years of team control.  The risk is much greater than the reward.

As far as the Padres are concerned, that rules out extending Latos, Cabrera, Blanks, and Headley.

I am more open to negotiating once players reach their arbitration years.

If the Padres were able to buy out a few of Kevin Kouzmanoff’s or Heath Bell’s arbitration years, I would be okay with it.  But I do not consider doing so to be absolutely necessary.  Going year-to-year with relievers is never a bad option.  The same goes for league average third basemen.

The Padres have some solid young players, a few of which could even be labeled promising. What the team does not have is a young sure-fire superstar who still has his arbitration years ahead of him.  At this point, there is little reason to commit to guaranteed multi-year salaries with any of the team’s young players.

by Daniel Gettinger

When the Padres selected Everth Cabrera in this year’s Rule V draft, I was more than a bit skeptical.  While the team praised his speed (73 SB last season), I found it difficult to believe that a player who struck out in over 20% of his plate appearances, and committed 26 errors in 121 games in the A level South Atlantic League would be able to stick on a major league roster.  Even one as bad as the Padres.  Comparisons to Rafael Furcal seemed like wishful thinking to me.  Ben Davey captured my exact thoughts when he wrote:

both had great minor league numbers (in particular SB), and yes both were claimed and made the jump from High A to the majors, but for every Furcal there are about 20 Calix Crabbe’s.  Many people who hit well in High A do not hit well in AA let alone become an all star like Furcal.

Boy was I wrong.  Cabrera has not only made the jump from A ball to the majors, he has positively contributed to the club.  Cabrera has cut down on his strike out rate (19% this season), and has actually been a slightly better than league average hitter.  His OBP of 0.342 is amongst the better marks on the Padres, and believe it or not, is higher than Rafael Furcal’s 0.336 mark this season.*

*Note: Cabrera only has 165 plate appearances this season.  There is nothing in his stats (abnormally high BABIP, ridiculous deviation from a previously established talent level, etc…) to suggest his performance is a fluke, but as always, we should keep the small sample size in mind.

Cabrera has also increased his fielding percentage, while doing a decent job at shortstop.  Baseball Prospectus rates Cabrera as a few runs above average, while UZR feels he has been slightly below average. Every time I have watched Cabrera, I have been impressed with his fielding, but for now lets just call him a league average shortstop with the potential to be significantly better than that.

Combined with his great speed, his average bat, and his ability to man a premium position, Cabrera, in only 42 games and 350 innings played, has been about one win better than a replacement level player.  That is quality production from any player, let alone a 22 year old who jumped straight from A-ball to the major leagues.

Everth Cabrera is not a power hitter, and I doubt he ever will be.  But assuming he continues to improve-even just a little-Cabrera can be the long term answer at shortstop for the Padres.  He gets on base, runs well, and is probably no worse than average with the glove.  A shortstop like that is very valuable, and while the Rafael Furcal comparisons may still be a bit optimistic, Cabrera should be fun to watch for the next few years.  Lets just hope the club is able to surround him with even more talented players.