by Daniel Gettinger

From an offensive perspective, players who get on base are good.  Players who hit for power are too. Players who both reach base frequently, and hit for power are really good.

Because a good measure of getting on base is on-base percentage (OBP), and a decent measure of power is slugging percentage (SLG), it has become somewhat mainstream to evaluate offensive performance by combining the two measures into OPS (OBP+SLG).

Unfortunately, adding SLG to OBP, while easy to calculate, is not an entirely accurate measure of offensive performance.  The main reason is OPS treats OBP and SLG as equals that are scaled in the same manner.  In fact, OBP is actually more important than SLG.  Given two players with the same OPS, the one with the higher OBP is better offensively.

Inside the Book Blog recently published an excerpt from PAAPFLY that illustrates the issue:

Continuing my bashing of Bengie Molina, allow me to show you how his terrible OBP can be quite detrimental. Bengie Molina posted a .727 OPS in 2009, which isn’t very good. Ryan Theriot managed to post an even lower OPS of .712 in 2009. He must be the inferior offensive player. Wrong. Molina’s wOBA is actually .308 to Theriot’s .318. Though Theriot slugged 73 points less than Molina, his OBP was 58 points higher, and, wOBA shows us that his 58 OBP points to Molina’s 73 slugging points were actually worth an additional 10 points in wOBA. This is just a quick example and a good way to illustrate just how much Molina’s extraordinary out making skills truly do hurt his team, offensively of course.

From a Padres’ perspective, I liken the Molina/Theriot example to that of Chase Headley and Kevin Kouzmanoff.  This is how Kouzmanoff and Headley stacked up in 2009:

	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Kouzmanoff	0.302	0.420	0.722	0.312
Headley	0.342	0.392	0.734	0.328

Although not a perfect example (because Headley’s OPS was slightly higher than Kouzmanoff’s OPS), we can see that Headley’s wOBA is 5% greater than Kouzmanoff’s wOBA, compared to only a 1.6% difference in OPS. The reason is Headley’s superior on base skills.

OPS is an okay estimate of offensive skill.  But the only advantage it has over a stat like wOBA, which properly weights OBP and OPS, is ease of calculability.  It would be nearly impossible to calculate a player’s wOBA based on the information given by the stadium scoreboard, or the Channel 4 stat-line.  However, outside of convenience, there is no good reason to use OPS.

by Daniel Gettinger

For over a year I have pleaded (some may call it whining) for the Padres to trade Kevin Kouzmanoff.  As Ben posted earlier, the Padres have finally done so.  In return for Kouzmanoff and Eric Sogard, the Padres will receive outfielders Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham.  This is a great trade for the Padres.

First lets look at what the Padres are giving up.

The As are acquiring Kouzmanoff’s three arbitration seasons.  Kouz has been remarkably consistent as a Padre, posting WARs of 2.7, 2.8, and 2.7.  Both with the glove and the bat, Kouz is average for his position. At 28 years old, the A’s can probably expect Kouzmanoff to continue to post WAR’s between 2.5 and 3.0 for the next three seasons.

Using a dollar per win value of $4MM, and the standard 40%, 60%, 80% expected arbitration award, Kouzmanoff is expected to get paid between $21MM and $25MM while producing $31MM and $37MM worth of value.  That’s $10MM-$12MM of surplus value (not including any free agent compensation the A’s may eventually receive) over the three years.

Eric Sogard is a soon to be 24 year old second baseman who walks a lot, but like most second baseman does not have much power.  John Sickels rates Sogard as the Padres 20th best prosect and gives him a C+ grade, writing: “Gets on base, not punchless, defense is so-so but I like the bat enough to keep give him this grade.”

According to Victor Wang’s research on prospect value, a C hitter older than 23 years is expected to provide $0.5MM of surplus value.  In total, the Padres are surrendering something between $10MM and $13MM of value.

So, what are the Padres getting in return?

The Padres will control Hairston for his final two years of arbitration.  The projection systems peg Hairston as an average outfielder with the bat.  Overall for his career, Hairston has been an average, albeit versatile fielder.  His biggest problem has been staying in the lineup.  He has never played more than 116 games in any season.

The past three years, Hairston has been a 1.8, 1.8, and 1.4 WAR player.  He might be slightly better than that, but for the sake of being conservative, lets say he will be between a 1.5 and 2.0 WAR player over the next two seasons.  In a vacuum, that equates to between $2.5MM and $3.5MM in surplus value.

Sickels rated Aaron Cunningham the A’s third best prospect entering the 2009 season (due to a brief appearance in the majors this season, he was ineligible for this year’s list.)  Sickels gave Cunningham a B grade writing: “A solid all-around player. Doesn’t have the ceiling of some of these other guys, but a surer bet to reach his.”  Baseball America rated Cunningham baseball’s 55th best prospect entering last season.

According to Wang’s research, a hitter ranked between 51 and 75 on Baseball America’s rankings is worth $14.2MM.  In total, the Padres are receiving about $17MM of value in return for $10MM-$13MM of value.

However, things get even better.  The Padres traded from an area of surplus for talent in an area of need.

With Chase Headley on the roster, the Padres had two third baseman, but were forcing one (Headley) to masquerade as a left-fielder.  Not surprisingly, Headley’s fielding was a major liability and zapped much of his value.  In the minors, Headley was considered an average fielding third baseman, and in the majors Headley has shown to be no worse than an average hitter.  In replacing Kouz with Headley at third, the Padres essentially break even.

Replacing Headley with Hairston in the outfield, however is an upgrade.  Hairston provides similar value with the bat, but is a much better (think 15-20 runs better) fielder than Headley, and given his ability to play CF, more versatile.

Kouz for Hairston alone, while not necessarily a great deal from a traditional surplus value calculation perspective would probably have been a break-even proposition for the Padres due to their surplus of third baseman.  Also adding a solid prospect like Cunningham ensures that the team received more than fair compensation for Kouzmanoff, and makes this deal a serious win for the Padres.

by Ben Davey

In case anyone didnt see this Hacksaw, MLBTR, and a few other sources are saying the Padres sent 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff to the A’s for former Padre Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham. I guess a prospect is also being sent the A’s way but I will take a wild guess and assume its not going to be a top prospect. Maybe someone like Chad Huffman or a low level prospect

To me this is a good move by the Padres. Adding Hairston and Cunningham to the OF rotation will help out a lot defensively (especially considering no more Headley in the OF).  Also we already know Scotty can help offensively which will hopefully make up for the loss of Kouz.

I dont know much about Cunningham, but he seems to draw a lot of comparisons to recently DFA’d outfielder Eric Byrnes. He has not had much success playing limited time in the majors the past 2 seasons. He is only 23 (turns 24 in April) and put up .309/.382/.493 averaging about 25 SB and 20 HR for a full season. Baseball Reference has him playing all 3 OF positions, mainly RF and CF the past couple years.

Just based on the little knowledge I know of the prospect and of course of Scotty I think its a good trade by the Padres

More links Bleacher Report
SF Gate

by Daniel Gettinger

Kevin Kouzmanoff trade rumors have dominated the Padres related rumors coming out of the winter meetings.  Much of the chatter has been centered around a possible Giants deal, and a potential Twins deal.

Jason Stark reported that the Padres offered Kouzmanoff to the Giants for outfielder Fred Lewis and second base/utility guy Kevin Frandsen.  Stark also reported that the Padres have requested pitcher Glen Perkins and some second player in return for Kouz.

Neither deal strikes me as something the Padres should seriously consider.

Kevin Kouzmanoff has been an extremely consistent (at least year-by-year) player for the Padres the past three seaons, compiling WARs of 2.6, 2.7, and 2.7 respectively.  He is essentially a league average third baseman.  This year, following three seasons in which he got paid the minimum salary, he is eligible for arbitration, and should earn something around $5M, which assuming he will continue to play like he always has, would result in an expected surplus value of about $7M.

Fred Lewis is a speedy outfielder with little power, but an above average glove at a corner position.  He has not played much in center, but is probably between average and a bit below average there.

In 2008, Lewis had a decent 2.3 WAR season, but last year (albeit with less at bats) only posted 0.9 WAR. Lewis turned 29 today, so he cannot be described as a youngster.  That 2008 season may have been a career-year for him.  Lets split the difference between his 2008 and 2009 season and call him a 1.6 WAR player going forward.

Frandsen is pretty terrible.  He has no power, and lacks the on-base skills to make up for it.  He can play a lot of positions, but there is not sufficient evidence to claim that he is a great fielder.  Frandsen is essentially a replacement level utility player.  Lets be generous and say he can put up 0.5 WAR in 2010.

Combined, Lewis and Frandsen equate to an expected 2.1 WAR, trailing Kouzmanoff’s 2.6 WAR.  Their advantage over Kouzmanoff is they will only get paid around $1M between them this year, and are under team control for a few more seasons.  Combined, if you accept the assumptions I have already laid out, they will provide around $8.5M in excess value in 2010, which exceeds Kouzmanoff’s expected surplus value of $7M.

Of course, they take up two roster spots, while Kouz only takes up one, which more than cancels out the $1.5M difference in surplus value.  In addition, neither player is very good; certainly not as good as Kouzmanoff.  Neither Lewis nor Frandsen are players the team can realistically build around, making their acquisition somewhat pointless.

The proposed Twins trade makes a bit more sense, in that it suggests the Padres would be acquiring a starting pitcher.  Again though, the issue is that the player in question-Glen Perkins-is not good.

Perkins has been a 1 WAR player the past two seasons, and does not project to improve much.  He has decent control, but strikes almost nobody out (only about 4.4 K/9).  He is no better (and quite possibly worse) than guys like Clayton Richard, Tim Stauffer, and Sean Gallagher.

Unless the mystery “second man” in the deal is someone significant, this trade makes less sense than the Giants deal.

The Padres need to trade Kevin Kouzmanoff.  It is silly to have Chase Headley masquerade as a corner-outfielder, when he is clearly a third baseman.  But, taking back a bag of garbage just to make room for him at third does nothing to improve the team.

That said a package of Lewis and a mid-level prospect or two (the type of players who have a chance of playing at a Kouzmanoff level in a few years) might be enough to get a deal done.

by Daniel Gettinger

The National League Gold Glove winners were announced today.  Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez won his second consecutive gold glove.  Despite heavy support from the Padres and the San Diego media, Kevin Kouzmanoff, who set the National League single season record for fielding percentage, did not win an award.

Before I touch on Adrian’s award, I want to reiterate that Kouzmanoff did not deserve to win a gold glove this season.  Sure, he made very few errors, but he also has limited range.  Ryan Zimmerman was clearly the best fielding third-baseman in the National League.  His UZR of 18.1 was more than double Kouz’s 7.5. Zimmerman also bested Kouz by a significant margin in Tom Tango’s community scouting report.

As for Adrian…At first, I was surprised to see him win the award again this season.  Most Padres fans know Gonzalez is a pretty good fielding first baseman, but I had just assumed Albert Pujols, who is also often cited as a great fielding first baseman would win the award.

According to UZR though, the voters got this one right.  Gonzalez led all N.L. first basemen with a 3.8 UZR, just edging out Derrek Lee (3.7).  Pujols ranked fourth with a UZR of 1.3.  The thing is, fielding statistics are not entirely precise, so I am not sure we should make much out of the difference between Gonzalez and Pujols in the stat.

According the fan’s scouting report, Pujols actually bests Gonzalez.  But not by much.  Pujols scored an average grade of 3.96, while Gonzalez had an average grade of 3.91.  Derek Lee was at 3.69.  Even if you are not too familiar with the distribution of scores in the fan’s scouting report, it is pretty clear that little separated Pujols and Gonzalez.

All in all, I’d say this one was a toss-up.  Neither Gonzalez nor Pujols (nor Lee if you prefer) distinguished themselves as significantly better fielders than the other this season.  Because the voters did not ignore a greatly more deserving candidate (as would have been the case had Kouzmanoff earned a gold glove at the expense of Zimmerman), I am happy to see Gonzalez, a Padre, be recognized with a post-season award.

by Daniel Gettinger

Chase Headley had a terrible first half.  Prior to the all-star game, he only reached base 30.8% of the time, mustering a putrid 0.674 OPS.  Those numbers would be borderline unacceptable for a slick fielding second baseman, let alone a corner outfielder.

Since the break however, Headley has actually been hitting the ball like many of us expected him to all season.  His post allstar game on base percentage is 0.382, and he has slugged at a 0.488 clip, good for a 0.820 OPS.

Part of the improvement was expected.  There was little chance that Headley’s was truly a Deivi Cruz clone at the plate.  Some of the improvement may also be a function of a small sample size.  Headley has only stepped to the plate 193 times since the allstar game was played.  That said, I feel Headley is at least an average major league hitter, and based on his solid minor league statistics and his recent success, potentially a bit better than that.

Unfortunately, slightly above average major league hitting does not profile well to a corner outfield position. Combined with the fact that Headley is not a good fielder in the outfield (-11.4 UZR/150 this season, and -16.0 UZR/150 last season), his value shrinks to just slightly better than replacement level.

That is when he is forced to play the outfield.

As a third baseman, Headley could be a very valuable player. Even if he is finds it difficult to make the transition back to third base, it is unlikely Headley will field any worse there than he has done in left field, making the move worthwhile due to the approximately 8 run positional adjustment Headley would receive over the course of the season.

If he is able to regain his previous form at third (most scouting reports indicated Headley was no worse than a slightly below average fielder), he would likely be a league average third baseman.  Think Kevin Kouzmanoff with less power, but better on base skills.

Basically the Padres have two league average third basemen on their roster, one of which is masquerading as a left fielder.  Headley can be a pretty good third baseman, but he is not a good left fielder.  Over the off-season the team must trade either he or Kouz.  Because Headley has accumulated less service time, and Kouzmanoff’s value will probably never be higher (after all, Kouz is a gold glove caliber player who drives in lots of runs…exactly what every team needs.  Right???)*, Kouz will probably be the one to go.  Either way, the Headley in left field experiment needs to end.

*Frequent readers will recognize I am being sarcastic, but in case you are reading Friar Forecast for the first time, or perhaps the first time in a while, I do want to be clear: I do not believe Kouzmanoff should win the gold glove this year, and I do not believe high RBI totals tell us very much about a player’s talent level.

by Daniel Gettinger

First off, I apologize for not posting much recently.  A new school season has begun, and musing about a last place team has taken a back seat to classes, catching up with friends, and the post graduation job search.

While my blogging production has not been consistent in recent weeks, I have noticed that Kevin Kouzmanoff’s 2009 season is remarkably consistent with his performances in each of the two previous years.

In 2007, Kouz posted a WAR of 2.6.  In 2008, he was worth 2.7 wins above replacement.  This season: 2.4 WAR with a little under one month to go.  While not all-star level production, Kouz has established himself as a solid everyday third baseman; essentially an average player.

What I find funny is Kouz has developed an anecdotal reputation for being somewhat streaky, or at the very least, a slow starter.  In 2007, led by a horrific April, Kouzmanoff had a pre-allstar game OPS of 0.674 compared to 0.890 after the break.  Kouz also stumbled out of the gate last season, posting a 0.646 OPS in April.  This year, on May 15, Tim Sullivan, felt Kouzmanoff was playing so terribly that he advocated sending Kouz to AAA.

Kouzmanoff may actually be a slow starter.  More likely though, one months worth of at bats is just not enough to jump to any conclusions.*  As he once again proved this season, Kouz is who he is: an average third baseman, who when all is said and done, will provide adequate and consistent value to his club.

*I was watching Office Space the other day…Next year, when some Padre player has a rough first month and a half, and people begin to overreact, I really should order and send out as gifts a few of the “jump to conclusions mats”, proposed as a great invention idea by “Tom Smykowski.”

by Daniel Gettinger

The rule IV draft is fun for fans of losing teams.  It is an outlet for hope, and adds a little excitement to an otherwise dull season.  It also helps highlight the importance of consistently developing major league quality players from within, and helps educate fans about concepts such as team control.

Recently, a reader, who like many of us, followed the draft carefully, and keeps close tabs on the Padres’ minor league system, asked an interesting question: “Now that the draft is over, which of the Padres’ young players should they lock up, buying out their arbitration years”?

The answer: Nobody.

Let me explain.

While buying out the arbitration years of young star players is often a good idea, unless the player is an Albert Pujols/Evan Longoria/Hanley Ramirez type star, I see no reason to negotiate in the first three years of team control.  In those years, teams are able to pay players the minimum allowable salary, regardless of their production.

It is not until arbitration that players are compensated based on their performance.  Even then, things do not immediately get too expensive for teams.  A general rule of thumb is that players earn 40% of what they are worth in their first year of arbitration, 60% in their second year, and 80% in their third year.  That is a lot of surplus value.  Particularly in the first year where a player worth $20 million is only expected to earn $8 million.

Buying out a player’s arbitration years early can save teams money, but it is also risky.  An injury or dip in performance can make a commitment look silly quickly.  When the alternative is going year-by-year at greatly discounted salaries, the decision is usually pretty simple.

As I mentioned, unless the player is an obvious star, I do not believe teams should negotiate in the first three years of team control.  The risk is much greater than the reward.

As far as the Padres are concerned, that rules out extending Latos, Cabrera, Blanks, and Headley.

I am more open to negotiating once players reach their arbitration years.

If the Padres were able to buy out a few of Kevin Kouzmanoff’s or Heath Bell’s arbitration years, I would be okay with it.  But I do not consider doing so to be absolutely necessary.  Going year-to-year with relievers is never a bad option.  The same goes for league average third basemen.

The Padres have some solid young players, a few of which could even be labeled promising. What the team does not have is a young sure-fire superstar who still has his arbitration years ahead of him.  At this point, there is little reason to commit to guaranteed multi-year salaries with any of the team’s young players.

by Daniel Gettinger

Last week, Corey Brock pointed out Kevin Kouzmanoff has the highest “fielding percentage of any Major League third baseman (.988) and the fewest errors (3).”

Brock argued, “the number of errors and fielding percentage the Padres’ third baseman has in 2009 certainly show that he should be, at the very least, in the discussion for the holy grail of awards for fielders.”

I disagree.

Kouz’s lack of errors are great, but not making errors on balls a player gets to is only one component of defense.  The other major defensive component for a third baseman is range.  And Kouzmanoff does not have great range.  UZR feels Kouzmanoff’s range has been -1.4 runs below average.

His overall UZR of 2.3 (3.4 UZR/150), seems about right to me.  It reflects Kouz’s consistency on balls he gets to (4.1 errors runs above average), but dings him for his below average range.

Baseball Prospectus is even harsher.  Their fielding metric sees Kouzmanoff’s fielding as about 5 runs below average this season.

The problem with fielding metrics is they are not very precise.  Over long periods of time, they seem to do a pretty decent job, but even a sample of 115 games (the number of games Kouz has played this season) is not sufficient to reach any definite conclusions.

That said, in 2008, UZR saw Kouzmanoff as 2.7 runs above average.  Like this season, Kouz made few errors, but displayed only passable range in 2008.  Based on his stats this year, as well as last year, I feel comfortable stating that Kevin Kouzmanoff has been a slightly above average fielder this season and projects to play the same way the remainder of the season.

Average fielding is fine, but it is not gold glove worthy.  The N.L. gold glove winner at third base should be Ryan Zimmerman.  It is not a close call.

Due to his phenomenal range, UZR feels Zimmerman has been 16 runs above average with the glove this season.  Zimmerman’s past suggests such a positive UZR may not be a fluke.  He struggled with injuries last year, but in 2007, Zimmerman was 17.4 runs above average at third base.

No other N.L. third basemen is within 10 runs (approximately one win) of Zimmerman defensively. Pedro Feliz and Casey Blake, both of whom trail Zimmerman but lead Kouzmanoff in UZR, have been 4.7 and 4.3 runs above average defensively.

Kouzmanoff has been solid with the glove, but to even consider him for the gold glove is ludicrous considering how good Zimmerman has been.  Limiting errors is great, but getting to the ball is important as well.