by Daniel Gettinger

The Rookie of the Year awards were announced yesterday.  In the National League, Chris Coghlan of Florida won the award.  He was followed by J.A. Happ, Tommy Hanson, and Andrew McCutchen.

My personal picks, which I posted a few weeks ago had McCutchen winning the award, with Hanson, and Colby Rasmus right behind him.  While much has already been written about the McCutchen/Coghlan debate, I was surprised to see that Rasmus, my third place pick, garnered so little support amongst actual voters.  He received only one total point in the voting.

I think the reason Rasmus was overlooked by the voters is that so much of his value comes from playing a premium position, playing good defense at that position, and running the bases well.  Rasmus’s batting average of 0.251 pales in comparison to Coghlan’s 0.321 mark.  He also trails Coghlan in some of the more advanced stats such as wOBA.  Coghlan’s bat was worth about 26 more runs than Rasmu’s this past season, a large and significant difference.

However, Rasmus makes up the difference with the glove.  He was worth about 10 runs more than the average center fielder. Meanwhile, Coghlan was 11 runs worse than the average left fielder.  Throw in a seven run difference for positional adjustments (based on their actual playing time), and 3.5 run difference for baserunning, and Rasmus actually edges Coghlan (albeit barely, and perhaps insignificantly) in value for the 2009 season.

Chris Coghlan was not a terrible choice for N.L. Rookie of the Year.  He just was not my pick.  But, the lack of support for Colby Rasmus seems to demonstrate that voters are still underweighting defense, baserunning, and positional scarcity, while overweighing offense.

by Daniel Gettinger

The National League Gold Glove winners were announced today.  Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez won his second consecutive gold glove.  Despite heavy support from the Padres and the San Diego media, Kevin Kouzmanoff, who set the National League single season record for fielding percentage, did not win an award.

Before I touch on Adrian’s award, I want to reiterate that Kouzmanoff did not deserve to win a gold glove this season.  Sure, he made very few errors, but he also has limited range.  Ryan Zimmerman was clearly the best fielding third-baseman in the National League.  His UZR of 18.1 was more than double Kouz’s 7.5. Zimmerman also bested Kouz by a significant margin in Tom Tango’s community scouting report.

As for Adrian…At first, I was surprised to see him win the award again this season.  Most Padres fans know Gonzalez is a pretty good fielding first baseman, but I had just assumed Albert Pujols, who is also often cited as a great fielding first baseman would win the award.

According to UZR though, the voters got this one right.  Gonzalez led all N.L. first basemen with a 3.8 UZR, just edging out Derrek Lee (3.7).  Pujols ranked fourth with a UZR of 1.3.  The thing is, fielding statistics are not entirely precise, so I am not sure we should make much out of the difference between Gonzalez and Pujols in the stat.

According the fan’s scouting report, Pujols actually bests Gonzalez.  But not by much.  Pujols scored an average grade of 3.96, while Gonzalez had an average grade of 3.91.  Derek Lee was at 3.69.  Even if you are not too familiar with the distribution of scores in the fan’s scouting report, it is pretty clear that little separated Pujols and Gonzalez.

All in all, I’d say this one was a toss-up.  Neither Gonzalez nor Pujols (nor Lee if you prefer) distinguished themselves as significantly better fielders than the other this season.  Because the voters did not ignore a greatly more deserving candidate (as would have been the case had Kouzmanoff earned a gold glove at the expense of Zimmerman), I am happy to see Gonzalez, a Padre, be recognized with a post-season award.

by Daniel Gettinger

We were requested to make our MVP ballot ten players deep.  The San Diego Padres chapter of the BBA voted in the following manner:

1) Albert Pujols

2) Hanley Ramirez

3) Chase Utley

4) Tim Lincecum

5) Adrian Gonzalez

6) Prince Fielder

7) Ryan Zimmerman

8. Troy Tulowtizki

9) Ryan Howard

10) Derek Lee

My personal ballot basically mirrored the fangraphs value page with a few minor adjustments.  Mainly, I left a number of the first basemen off my ballot and added in a few pitchers.

1) Albert Pujols

2) Chase Utley

3) Tim Lincecum

4) Hanley Ramirez

5) Ryan Zimmerman

6) Adrian Gonzalez

7) Troy Tulowitzki

8. Matt Kemp

9) Chris Carpenter

10) Javier Vazquez

The Sacrifice Bunt Ballot:

Websoul Surfer Ballot:

10 - Pablo Sandoval – He carried surprising Giants offensively in 2009 •

9 - Ryan Braun - .320 with 32 home runs. But those are not the numbers that • got him on this list. 342/.399/.629/1.029 and 21 hrs with runners on did. Isn’t that what a MVP does, hit better when it counts?

8 - Derrek Lee - Epic numbers with RISP in a lineup that gave him little or • no protection for much of the season - .319/.417/.645/1.062 with 80 RBI .306/.394/.579/.972 with 35 home runs on the season. MVP Numbers.

7 - Chase Utley - .282/.397/.508/.905 and 31 home runs while providing • Gold Glove type defense at 2B. A 7.7 WAR! •

6 - Ryan Howard – 45 Home Runs, 141 RBI .571 Slugging. .292 ISO

5 - Tim Lincecum – Yes, I have him higher in MVP than Cy Young voting. • I think he was more important to his team’s success than Carpenter was. Without him the anemic hitting Giants struggle to win 80 games.

4 - Prince Fielder - .299 .412 .602 1.014 with 46 Home Runs and 141 RBI • .303 ISO and .420 wOBA. 7.92 WPA – best in baseball.

3 - Hanley Ramirez – My preseason pick. This season Ramirez turned into a • full fledged “I will carry this team” player. He led the league in BA @ .342, hit 24 home runs, scored & drove in 100+ runs. .543 SLG/.954 OPS

2 - Adrian Gonzalez - The best player no one knows about. 40 hr, .274 ISO • and .402 wOBA playing in Petco 81 games a season. Enough Said.

1 - Albert Pujols – Unquestionably the best player in baseball

Okay…that concludes my series on post season awards.  I apologize for not providing thorough analysis on my selections-I just did not have the time.  At the same time, my picks in all three player categories should not surprise any regular readers.  I have a strong tendency to go with the “sabermetric” picks in each category.  If you are confused by my selections, just head over to Fangraphs and cruise their “value leaderboard.”

by Daniel Gettinger

Continuing our BBA end of season awards, today we deal with the Cy Young award.

The San diego chapter of the BBA voted in the following manner:

First Place: Tim Lincecum

Second Place: Chris Carpenter

Third Place: Javier Vazquez

Both The Sacrifice Bunt and I voted in the exact order as the chapter vote.

Lincecum was clearly the best pitcher in the National League and was worth 8.2 wins against replacement.

A group of pitchers that included Carpenter, Ubaldo Jimenez, Adam Wainwright, Dan Haren, and Javier Vazquez compiled WARs between 5.6 and 6.6.  I gave my second place vote to Carpenter on the strength of his 2.24 ERA and 2.78 WHIP.

Although Vazquez had a higher WAR (he trailed only Lincecum in that category), I knocked him down a notch because Vazquez has long history of  underperforming his FIP, and to be honest, I was swayed a bit by Carpenter’s league leading ERA.

Websoul Surfer’s votes:

First place: Chris Carpenter

Sometimes it’s not all about he numbers, even though Carpenter’s numbers (17-4 in 28 starts, 2.24 ERA) certainly warrant this award. This is a pitcher that time and again was the stopper for his team and stepped up when he was facing tough teams. He was undefeated against division foes with a 1.58 ERA in 15 starts.

Second Place: Tim Lincecum

15-7 with a 2.48 ERA and a league leading 261 SO in 225.1 IP. Certainly worthy numbers. The difference for me was the 2.83 ERA against the NL West vs the 2.26 ERA against the rest of baseball.

Third Place: Adam Wainwright

19-8 with a 2.68 ERA, but just not quite good enough for me. At times he just seemed more lucky than good.

by Daniel Gettinger

A few days ago I mentioned that Baseball Bloggers Alliance is voting on end of season awards.  Each chapter receives two votes in each category.  The Padres chapter decided to allow each member to vote, and then aggregate the results.  For Rookie of the Year, the chapter results were:

First Place: Andrew McCutchen (PIT)

Second Place: Tommy Hanson (ATL)

Third Place: Chris Coghlan (FLA)

I personally voted in the following manner:

First Place: Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen was an easy choice.  He showed an above average bat and an average glove at a premium position (CF).  In all, he was worth 3.4 wins above replacement, tops amongst NL rookies.

Second Place: Tommy Hanson

Hanson did not start the season in the majors, and only threw 127 innings, but he made those innings count.  He had a 2.89 ERA and a 3.50 FIP.  He struck out over eight batters per nine innings, and never showed serious control or homerun problems.  Hanson has a very bright future in this league.

Third Place: Colby Rasmus

Rasmus was slightly below average offensively, but was excellent defensively, posting a 10.3 UZR.  He was worth 2.3 wins over a replacement player, pretty much identical to fellow rookie Chris Coghlan’s 2.4 WAR. Since it is so close, I will give my third place vote to the player who is likely to be better three years from now.

The votes of other chapter members:

The Sacrifice Bunt

First Place: Andrew McCutchen

Second Place: Tommy Hanson

Third Place: Garrett Jones

Websoulsurfer

First Place: Chris Coghlan

.321/.390/.460/.850 with 9 HR from the LF

Second Place: Andrew McCutchen

.286/.365/.471/.836 with 12 HR and Gold Glove quality defense in CF

Third Place: Everth Cabrera

My Homer Vote – Jumped from Low A to the majors after being the Padres Rule V draft pick and hit .255 with 25 SB. His defense was erratic, he was spectacular when ranging far but often blew the routine play, but the promise of exceptional D is there.

Up next: Cy Young Award

by Daniel Gettinger

A few months ago, I joined a loose coalition called The Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA).  According to its website, the BBA was “created to foster communication and collaboration between bloggers across baseball.  Member blogs are encouraged to use one another to deepen their understanding of the game and the teams that play it.”  In addition, the BBA produces year-end awards.  The BBA is broken into chapters, consisting of bloggers from each team.  Each chapter receives two votes.

The San Diego Padres chapter, which also includes Peter Friberg (Padres Rundown), The Sacrifice Bunt (Melvin Nieves and Ray Lankford), Websoulsurfer, and Avenging Jack Murphy, decided rather than allowing only two members to vote, to aggregate our votes and issue one “Padres chapter” ballot worth two votes.  For Manager of the year, the chapter voted in the following manner:

1) Jim Tracy-Colorado

2) Tony LaRussa-St. Louis

3) Joe Torre-Los Angeles

Each member voted as follows (if they provided explanations, those are listed as well):

Daniel Gettinger: Tony LaRussa (1), Joe Torre (2), Bobby Cox (3)

Honestly, I do not really know the best way to evaluate managers.  I considered abstaining from this category, but instead elected to just go with a few managers whose teams did a bit better than I thought they would.

The Sacrifice Bunt (Ray Lankford): Jim Tracy, Fredi Gonzalez, Budford vonBlackenstein (Bud Black)

Websoulsurfer:

1) Jim Tracy-Took over an 18-28 team and got them to play some of the best baseball in the NL from that point on and win the Wild Card

2) Tony LaRussa-LaRussa once again took a team that was projected to be middle of the pack and with the addition of 1 player is in the playoffs.

3) Bud Black-For Not Losing 100 with this group.

Peter Friberg: Jim Tracy, Joe Torre, Fredi Gonzalez

Avenging Jack Murphy-Jim Tracy, Joe Torre, Tony LaRussa

So thats all for manager of the year.  I will let you know the results of the full BBA as soon as they are released.  Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP are the other categories we voted on, and I will have posts on those as well.