by Daniel Gettinger

• As a team the San Diego Padres have performed pretty much as expected.  They are currently 6-6 with a slightly positive run differential.  I still think 75-80 wins is a realistic expectation for this team.
• Chase Headley has been locked in offensively, but his defense needs immediate improvement.  He has five errors in 32 chances.  UZR data is not yet available for this season, and even if it was, the sample would be too small to be meaningful.  But Headley’s defense has been so bad that much of his offensive value has likely been negated.
• Will Venable needs to stop swinging at so many pitches out of the strike zone.  He has swung at 34 percent of the pitches out of the zone.  His lack of plate discipline thus far has resulted in a minuscule 4.7 percent walk rate.  Venable has never shown a ton of plate discipline (in either the majors or the minors).  It is something he will need to work on if he wants to become an above average player.
• Perhaps last season was no fluke for Kevin Correia after all.  He’s looked pretty solid.
• Gregerson’s and Adams’ artificially high ERAs are not reflective of the way they have been pitching.
• The Padres bullpen has a lot of good pitchers.  I remain convinced the team will not miss Heath Bell too much once he is traded.
• Labrum surgery is not Tommy John surgery.  Many pitchers never fully recover after having labrum surgery.  They almost never come back stronger.  I hope we have not seen the last of Chris Young as an effective pitcher, but there is a non- trivial chance that might be the case.  (As an aside, I had labrum surgery four months ago, and can certainly understand what Young is going through.  At times the shoulder feels great, but often tightens up after being tested a bit).
• Mat Latos will be fine.  He has given up too many homeruns, but his 30 percent HR/FB rate is nowhere near sustainable.  Braden Looper had the major league’s highest HR/FB rate last season (amongst qualified pitchers), and he was only at 15 percent.  With Latos pitching half of his games at Petco Park, he is highly unlikely to continue serving up home runs at such a high rate.
• Adrian Gonzalez is fantastic.  Nobody wants to pitch to him, and I don’t blame them.  Some team will get an excellent player and the Padres will be properly compensated for trading that excellent player.

by Daniel Gettinger

The biggest story of the San Diego Padres’ first win of the season was pitcher Chris Young’s performance. Young surrendered only one hit over six shutout innings.  He struck out five Arizona Diamondbacks and walked three.  Aside from the walks, there is little about the results that could be improved.

The results were good, and a win is always nice, but I was a bit disappointed with the speed of Young’s pitches.

In 2006 and 2007, Young threw his fastball around 89 mph on average, and got it up to 91 or 92 mph when he needed to get a little extra on a pitch.

Last night, as tracked by pitch f/x, Young’s average fastball was 84.4 mph, and his fastest fastball was only 87 mph.  Also, as the following chart demonstrates, Young’s fastball velocity consistently declined over his start…

More importantly, Young’s fastball was not rising as much as it has in the past.  Young got 12 inches of vertical break compared to nearly 15 inches in 2007.  The amount of break Young gets on his fastball is very likely a function of his pitch speed.  To be at 15 inches, he needs to be throwing closer to 89 mph.

At his best, Young was never an overpowering pitcher, but hitters seemed to have trouble with his fastball. The biggest reason was the extreme rise, and a deceptive delivery.  Young was often able to throw his fastball down the middle of the plate and get away with it.  At 84 mph, and with less rise, such pitches will eventually get hammered.  My hope is that Young is still building arm strength and that he will eventually throw 88 or 89 mph fastballs again.  If he is unable to regain such fastball speed, Young’s first-start effectiveness is unlikely to be sustainable.