Comments on: Recalculating Kouzmanoff’s value (and more arbitration fun) http://friarforecast.com/?p=1439 A Blog About the San Diego Padres Wed, 08 Sep 2010 13:34:05 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: Myron (MB) http://friarforecast.com/?p=1439#comment-12579 Myron (MB) Thu, 21 Jan 2010 04:50:50 +0000 http://friarforecast.com/?p=1439#comment-12579 Mike, nice catch. Actually, the decimal is right, but the 4 is supposed to be a dollar sign. Fixed it. And I saw that link; very nice. Right back at ya for your stuff on UZR and wOBA. Mike, nice catch. Actually, the decimal is right, but the 4 is supposed to be a dollar sign. Fixed it.

And I saw that link; very nice. Right back at ya for your stuff on UZR and wOBA.

]]> By: Mike Rogers http://friarforecast.com/?p=1439#comment-12576 Mike Rogers Wed, 20 Jan 2010 22:33:58 +0000 http://friarforecast.com/?p=1439#comment-12576 P.S.: and you got a link from Tango. Nice work! http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/padress_off_season_signings/ P.S.: and you got a link from Tango. Nice work!

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/padress_off_season_signings/

]]> By: Mike Rogers http://friarforecast.com/?p=1439#comment-12575 Mike Rogers Wed, 20 Jan 2010 22:33:29 +0000 http://friarforecast.com/?p=1439#comment-12575 Myron, you have a decimal error in your table for the total salary for Hairston. You have $47.8 mil. Just a pet peeve! Myron, you have a decimal error in your table for the total salary for Hairston. You have $47.8 mil. Just a pet peeve!

]]> By: Daniel Gettinger http://friarforecast.com/?p=1439#comment-12574 Daniel Gettinger Wed, 20 Jan 2010 15:49:13 +0000 http://friarforecast.com/?p=1439#comment-12574 Myron-Looks good. I agree that anywhere from 2.5-3 WAR seems about right for Kouz. Myron-Looks good. I agree that anywhere from 2.5-3 WAR seems about right for Kouz.

]]> By: Myron (MB) http://friarforecast.com/?p=1439#comment-12568 Myron (MB) Wed, 20 Jan 2010 06:45:27 +0000 http://friarforecast.com/?p=1439#comment-12568 All above average performance is expected to come back to earth (average) at some point. Kouzmanoff is still in his prime years, so I think 2.5 WAR seems fair, based on his past; just a very slight drop-off, barely noticeable, over his three year average. Over the last three years, Hairston's average WAR has actually been a little higher than 1.5. Anyway, the beauty of this type of analysis is that you can easily change the numbers, and re-figure things. So, if you think Kouz is a 3 WAR player then you can calculate the numbers as if he were. And, make no mistake, these are just back-of-the-envelope projections, if you will, on my part. I mean CHONE has him at 2 WAR, while one of the other systems may very well have him at 2.5 or 3. I'm just eyeballing his recent stats and making a (hopefully!) educated guess. The way the dollar/win value is chosen is essentially by looking at how teams actually are spending money on the free agent market. Over the last few years, that number was over $4 million per marginal win, approaching 5, but it's taken a big hit this year with the economic decline. Teams just aren't willing to pay as much on the free market. So, the number I'm now using is 3.5, and that number is in line with what teams are spending this off-season. All above average performance is expected to come back to earth (average) at some point. Kouzmanoff is still in his prime years, so I think 2.5 WAR seems fair, based on his past; just a very slight drop-off, barely noticeable, over his three year average.

Over the last three years, Hairston’s average WAR has actually been a little higher than 1.5. Anyway, the beauty of this type of analysis is that you can easily change the numbers, and re-figure things. So, if you think Kouz is a 3 WAR player then you can calculate the numbers as if he were.

And, make no mistake, these are just back-of-the-envelope projections, if you will, on my part. I mean CHONE has him at 2 WAR, while one of the other systems may very well have him at 2.5 or 3. I’m just eyeballing his recent stats and making a (hopefully!) educated guess.

The way the dollar/win value is chosen is essentially by looking at how teams actually are spending money on the free agent market. Over the last few years, that number was over $4 million per marginal win, approaching 5, but it’s taken a big hit this year with the economic decline. Teams just aren’t willing to pay as much on the free market. So, the number I’m now using is 3.5, and that number is in line with what teams are spending this off-season.

]]> By: ThePadFather http://friarforecast.com/?p=1439#comment-12567 ThePadFather Wed, 20 Jan 2010 05:57:30 +0000 http://friarforecast.com/?p=1439#comment-12567 Why do you project Kouzmnaoff's WAR lower than any season he has had as a Padre while putting Hairston above his average season? Why so much higher on both than Chone? Wouldn't it make more sense to go with an average year when doing comparisons? What have FA that hit .265 with 15-17 hr recieved in FA this year? Last season? Is that consistent with the value you have placed on Kouz and Scotty? I am just curious because I really don't understand how guys like James and Chone come up with their projections. Why do you project Kouzmnaoff’s WAR lower than any season he has had as a Padre while putting Hairston above his average season?

Why so much higher on both than Chone? Wouldn’t it make more sense to go with an average year when doing comparisons?

What have FA that hit .265 with 15-17 hr recieved in FA this year? Last season? Is that consistent with the value you have placed on Kouz and Scotty?

I am just curious because I really don’t understand how guys like James and Chone come up with their projections.

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