by Daniel Gettinger

On Friday, for the first time in Padres history, the pitcher batted eighth in the lineup.  Rookie shortstop Everth Cabrera batted ninth.  The same lineup configuration was used on Saturday and Sunday.  In defending the somewhat unorthodox move, Bud Black explained: “Once the lineup turns over the first time, it gives us two leadoff hitters.”

Black is correct.  There are good reasons to bat the pitcher eighth, but merely saying “it gives us two leadoff hitters” is not very illuminating.  There is more to it than unleashing the mythical powers of the “second leadoff guy.”

In The Book, it is revealed that an optimal lineup will bat the pitcher eighth.  As The Hardball Times Joe Beamer explained, “The theory is that by batting the pitcher in the number eight slot then the number nine hitter has a better chance of getting on base and being driven in by the number two to four hitters (or specifically Pujols in this case).”  The benefits of having more guys on base for a team’s best hitters will outweigh the costs of the pitcher getting more at-bats, and having a few more guys on base for him to attempt to drive in.  Simulations tend to support the “bat the pitcher eighth” theory.

That said, the authors of The Book found batting the pitcher eighth instead of ninth is only expected to add two runs per season.  Not even half a win.  Due to variance, it is even possible that batting the pitcher eighth will hurt a team over the course of a season.  In reality, batting the pitcher eighth won’t help the Padres score many more runs, but it probably won’t cost the Padres any runs either.

Besides contributing to a slightly more optimal lineup, batting Cabrera ninth may be better for his development.  As a young player who prior to this season had never seen action above single-A, Cabrera is still very raw.  Batting him any higher than eighth may put more pressure on him than the team would like. Batting eighth, in front of the pitcher, he might see a bunch of junk pitches, and since he is so young and undeveloped, he may get anxious and start chasing those bad pitches.  Batting Cabrera ninth puts him in a “more natural,” low pressure hitting environment.

I am not sure how much Cabrera’s development will benefit from him batting ninth instead of eighth.  It might not even help at all.  But because batting the pitcher eighth is actually optimal, there is little to lose. It will not hurt Cabrera, and it will not hurt the team.