Myron’s Musings: Giles’ legacy

July 1st, 2009  |  Published in Myron Logan, Padres, baseball  |  1 Comment

by Myron Logan

Brian Giles has had a pretty interesting career. His skill-set and his environment have made him arguably one of the most underrated players of this era. And since coming to San Diego, a lot of the talk surrounding Giles has been about his hefty contract and his disappointing play. Giles detractors are, in some ways, right on both issues.

Brian Giles has indeed made a pretty good chunk of change  while playing for the Padres, especially for an organization with a relatively low yearly payroll. And, yes, Giles has not quite lived up to expectations, even after taking into account his hitting environment.

However, in his time in San Diego, he has hit  .279/.380/.435 (121 OPS+), His fielding, according to UZR, has been a little bit below average (about 10 runs overall). Giles, overall, has been worth 19.6 wins above replacement in San Diego, according to FanGraphs’ calculations. That’s around 3.5 WAR per full season (650 PA), which is well above average performance. 

So while Giles has not lived up to expectations – he hit .308/.426/.591 in 5 years in Pittsburgh – he’s still been a very good player. Now let’s quickly touch on Giles’ contract. Since 2004, Giles’ performance, again according to FanGraphs, has been worth about $66 million (that’s counting the negative 7.3 figure from this year, which is debatable). Over that time he’s been paid about $53 million (including this year).

We’ve found that Giles has been an above average player and that his contract has actually been a bargain, compared to what you should pay on the free market for his performance. Let’s look at one more issue Giles detractors like to point out: the trade that involved Jason Bay – I know that Oliver Perez was in it too, but I’m ignoring him in this simplified analysis.

Here’s a chart of Bay’s and Giles’ performance in WAR, since the deal:

Bay Year Giles
.9 WAR 2003 1.3 WAR
2.2 2004 5.1
6.4 2005 5.7
5.5 2006 3.3
.1 2007 1.1
2.9 2008 4.7
1.7 2009 -1.6
19.7 Total 19.6

 

Look at that – Giles and Bay have basically been equal in performance since the trade. So much for the idea that Bay has been a much better player than Giles. Ahh, but wait. Bay’s made a lot less money than Giles over that time period. From ‘04 through ‘08 with the Pirates, Bay was only paid ~$9.3 million. During that same time period with San Diego, Giles was paid almost $9 million per year.

Looking back, the trade hasn’t been a good one for San Diego. They probably would have been better off keeping Bay and Perez (though, as others have noted, nobody really expected Bay to turn out the way he did). The fact that the trade hasn’t quite worked out for the Padres isn’t really the fault of Giles. Again, he’s been a very good player, worth more than his contract. Jason Bay’s explosion is to blame for the results of the trade (or, if you’d like, the Padres front office).

My point here is not to do a detailed analysis of that trade back in 2003, or Giles career in San Diego. I just hope that, amidst his terrible struggles this season, fans realize just how good Brian Giles has been. No, he hasn’t been the guy he was in Pittsburgh and he also hasn’t been as valuable as Jason Bay. But he has been a very good player on some very good teams, and I think that’s what he deserves to be remembered for.

Responses

  1. Daniel Gettinger says:

    July 3rd, 2009 at 1:55 pm (#)

    Yeah, because Giles turned out not to be the power hitter most fans thought the Padres were getting, we sometimes overlook just how good he has actually been over the past 6 years.

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