Myron’s Musings: Hello, elephant
August 10th, 2009 | Published in Myron Logan, Padres, draft, prospects | 18 Comments
by Myron Logan
August 17th is a date that looms large for the San Diego Padres organization. The Padres have until then to sign their 2009 amateur draft picks, which include Donavan Tate (first round), Everett Williams (second round), and Keyvius Sampson (fourth round). All three are high school graduates and all three are expected to sign for more than MLB’s recommended slot bonus.
The Padres were almost universally praised in June for changing their draft strategy, which appeared to center around college players and safe signings (two things that often coincide). Breaking that mold, they picked high school prospects in three out of the first four rounds.
Drafting them is one thing, though, signing them is another. As mentioned, signing them is going to require more money than each respective draft position usually gets – in Tate’s situation, that could be as much as $3-4 million. I think there are two clear (quite obvious) reasons why signing these guys (at least two of them, including Tate) is essential for the Padres:
1. The best way to build a consistent winner is through drafting and developing. Young, cost-controlled players are huge for an organization. They provide both on-field value to the team (if they make the majors, of course) and trade value to bring in a proven player or two. The best way to assure that you have these type of players is to load up on talent – sure, sometimes you’ll miss, but when you hit, you’re getting a ton of surplus value.
2. The Padres need to send a message to the fans. With Jake Peavy’s contract out of town, there’s little excuse to not sign these draftees, especially Tate. If the new Padres regime wants to prove they are ready to contend, they have to spend money. There’s no better place to start than in the draft, especially with a rebuilding team.
I’m not worried about any of the three getting signed – I think they all will, and at least two will sign contracts. That said, I don’t want to see the uproar if Tate goes unsigned. It just won’t look good for the organization. In this lost year, we need good things to happen for a change. The draft was one of them – signing the draft picks will be another. .
August 10th, 2009 at 11:22 pm (#)
More from Bill Center: http://tinyurl.com/nlv5yc
Good discussion at Hank’s: http://tinyurl.com/neu34j
August 11th, 2009 at 1:08 am (#)
I’ve talked to someone pretty close to the Sampson negotiations, that is close to done… I’ll almost be surprised if it take all the way to Wednesday. Tate will sign. He’ll get his $6m (or close to it). Williams is the wild card.
August 11th, 2009 at 10:34 am (#)
From everything I’ve heard, Williams is a great talent. Not too much behind Tate.
I’ve read that, what, Williams wants $1.4 million and the Pads are closer to $.7 million. I don’t think they can let that kind of money get in the way of bringing in a superior talent, especially when they used their second pick on him.
August 11th, 2009 at 2:28 pm (#)
I enthusiastically agree with your opinion with one exception:
“That said, I don’t want to see the uproar if Tate goes unsigned. It just won’t look good for the organization. In this lost year, we need good things to happen for a change. The draft was one of them – signing the draft picks will be another.”
I think that the second point in your post nullifies this final statement.
The Padres have no reason to not get these guys signed…even before the Peavy trade was completed. However, now it is both the collective public perception and reality that the Padres have the means to sign the HS kids. The only caveat would be if Tate were holding out for the type of money that could cripple the franchise in the future if he were to be a bust (see Strasburg and Nationals).
I’ll be pretty bullish on our future if we can get these guys playing.
August 11th, 2009 at 10:15 pm (#)
Good points, AIC.
****
Corey Brock reports that the Padres are “making progress” with Tate: http://tinyurl.com/qqopm2
August 12th, 2009 at 1:58 am (#)
I think Tate and Sampson get done - period. I’ve heard that the Padres have offered closer to $1m (not verified) to Williams. I don’t want to see them let him go, but they HAVE to set a price limit and not go over it. It’s the same if it’s bananas, boats, or baseball players. “I’m willing to pay X.” If it costs more than that and you pay X+ then you’re essentially admitting you do not believe in your evaluation process. Now, all that said, if my source is accurate and the Padres are offering close to or slightly more than $1m I think it gets done.
For the record, I think Sampson get’s done in the $650-800k range.
August 12th, 2009 at 12:35 pm (#)
Peter, good stuff.
If the Padres say that giving Williams a $1 million bonus is what he’s worth, and going over that number isn’t worth it, then fine.
But if they set a limit a $1 million because they just don’t want to spend more on a second round draft pick, who could save the organization millions down the line, then I’d have a problem with that.
I’m not sure which one it is.
August 12th, 2009 at 2:34 pm (#)
From what I understand, the Padres have already made offers to all three that are over slot.
With slot for Tate at about $3.4 million, the $5+ million Borass has been asking for is way above slot.
Williams is asking for money that would place him in with top 10-12 picks in terms of slot money and Sampson is asking for well above slot as well.
I don’t see the small market Padres signing all 3, but I do see them signing at least Tate and Sampson.
August 12th, 2009 at 2:34 pm (#)
BTW, does anyone know if Tate has showed up at UNC yet?
He wasn’t there yet on Sunday.
August 12th, 2009 at 3:17 pm (#)
web, it was reported that he showed up for camp, but that he wasnt required to attend practices. So I dont know if he has actually been to a practice or if he was just showing up so Borass could use it as leverage
August 12th, 2009 at 6:02 pm (#)
Tate arrived at camp on Sunday rather than the expected Saturday but did not participate (which was a surprise) then left camp today (according to various tweets) to “consider a San Diego Padres offer.”
As for Sampson, the day after the draft, his advisor basically admitted that they had agreed-on deals in the $625-50 range but then the teams with whom those deals were made ended up not drafting him. Presumably it will take a deal in that area (maybe as low as $500k) to get it done.
BA reports the slots at:
1-3: $2,925,000
2-3: $$684,000
4-3: $263,700
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/news/2009/268507.html (subscription required)
August 13th, 2009 at 12:14 am (#)
Corey Brock of MLB.com is reporting that Tate left UNC.
According to the Herald-Sun, Tate arrived on Monday, 2 days after he had originally said he would show up, and left today without ever suiting up. Presumably he left in preparation to come to San Diego to sign a contract.
From what Peter posted, it looks like all 3 are asking more than double slot.
If KC had their All Star game pulled for one guy over slot, what will happen to the Padres? LOL.
August 13th, 2009 at 1:41 am (#)
Reading between the lines, Towers said a potential deal with Tate would require a thorough physical. Tate headed back to Carterville, GA to “consider an offer” from the Padres. I’m wondering if part of that consideration is a physical… Assuming the Padres don’t find a degenerative hip condition (ya know, for example) I think we got this one done.
August 13th, 2009 at 8:45 pm (#)
A physical is also required for a major league deal, but I can’t see the raw Tate getting one. The Padres already have the advantage of a two-sport athlete to spread the money out.
Peter, it’s also important to be aware of incremental payoff. It would be counter-productive for the Padres to lose a terrific talent like Williams over a 10% difference, especially since they saved a ton of money in the Peavy trade. Basically, the salary-above-minimum they paid Cliff Floyd to sit in the trainer’s room, for a team that had no realistic shot at competing, would have bridged the gap between their offer and Williams’ camp.
All-Star Game? Moores’ mouth was fastened firmly to Selig’s rear orifice for the last fourteen years, we built a new park, it’s SANDY FRIGGIN AYGO, and we’re still not in the rotation.
August 14th, 2009 at 1:54 am (#)
Towers was on with 619Sports.net talking about the unsigned players. He said (you can believe or not, but KT is usually a straight-shooter even to his own downfall) that the Padres had a significant budget even before the Peavy trade. The trade provided more flexibility at the MLB level but it did not have a baring on the draft signings.
I was told by a national baseball minor league writer that Tate almost certainly DID NOT have a deal in place (despite my thoughts to the contrary) but that Tate was likely taking his physical early under the assumption that the Padres would get the deal done and he would need it…
August 14th, 2009 at 10:41 am (#)
Interesting stuff guys.
Like many of you, I think they will definitely get Tate done, and probably Sampson as well.
Williams seems tougher, but as Tom pointed out, it seems silly not to sign him over a couple hundred thousand dollars. Especially if he really is a first round talent.
August 14th, 2009 at 11:06 am (#)
If the Padre front office can’t adjust their budgets based on new conditions, that’s a bad sign for future competitiveness. Baseball is a big-money business, but this is not a multimillion dollar manufacturing firm that must plan for capital expenditures years in advance and manage huge numbers of employees. The entire organization is about 300 people, most of them on fixed, fairly low salaries. Other businesses, with much more complex financing, transfer funds between buckets all the time. If they adhere to a fixed sum that was determined before they cleared Jake’s salary, that sounds like another chapter in the “John Moores Stands Against A Free Market” draft saga.
I can’t imagine any Boras-advised client having a pre-draft deal in place. That’s not why you hire Scott Boras. He’ll do what you want him to do, but in most cases, what you want him to do is to get the maximum possible contract.
August 14th, 2009 at 3:55 pm (#)
I should know this… Does Boras represent Williams? I didn’t think he did… I know he DOES represent Tate and he does NOT represent Sampson.
I’m not disagreeing TW, in that interview KT said he expects to get deals done with all three and that they have a “significant” budget for the Rule 4 draft. He just said that he would expect to get deals done for all 3 even if Jake was still here. Jake’s trade helps in other areas but it did not impact these descisions.