Mat Latos Has Been a bit Lucky
August 12th, 2009 | Published in Daniel Gettinger, Mat Latos, Padres, Sabermetrics, baseball | 1 Comment
by Daniel Gettinger
Since he was called up, Mat Latos has been fun to watch. He has won four games in five starts, and currently possesses a sparkly 2.43 RA. Plus he throws hard. 95 MPH hard.
The thing is, while Latos has the “stuff” to be a very good pitcher at some point, I am not sure he is there yet. Or at the very least, in an admittedly small sample of 30 innings, he has been somewhat lucky.
Latos has a FIP of 5.06. FIP, unlike ERA is not fooled by a 0.176 BABIP, or a 100% strand rate (Latos’s marks). Striking people out has not been a problem, as he has fanned nearly 7 batters per nine innings. Latos has walked a few more batters than I would like (2.73 BB/9), but his control has not been alarming. What has been an issue is the homeruns. Latos has allowed 6 HR, at least one in each of his starts.
While FIP may not be fooled by an unsustainable BABIP or strand rate, it can be tricked by an unrealistic HR rate. This season, 14.3% of flyballs hit against Latos have gone for homeruns. If he qualified, that HR/FB ratio would rank 7th worst amongst the 101 pitchers with 100 or more innings pitched.
It is certainly possible that Latos is a pitcher who allows a lot of homeruns per fly ball. But considering the small smaple, and that Latos never had a HR problem in the minors, it is more likely that we can expect regression towards a mark that better reflects his true talent.
xFIP attempts to control for this exact shortcoming in FIP. By normalizing the HR rate, many argue that xFIP is actually a better predictor of future performance than FIP. Latos’s xFIP on the season stands at 4.50. Not bad, but not nearly as shiny as his 2.43 RA.
Going forward, more balls that are put in play against Latos will go for hits. Likewise, his strand rate will not remain at 100%. But he is also unlikely to give up as many homeruns. In his 30 innings pitched, Latos has gotten a bit lucky. Which is not to say he cannot be a true 2.43 RA (or more realistically a 3.50 ERA) pitcher in his next 30 innings. Lets just not get overly excited about that 4-1 record and nifty RA. It is too heavily influenced by good luck.
August 12th, 2009 at 11:50 am (#)
I get the sense that because Latos is young, a bit cocky, and has the heat he tries to challenge certain players early in the game and those are the times he’s been hit hard. After that he settles down, and begins to “pitch” rather than “fire”.
It makes sense that he would challenge Joey Cora, and so he does and….well he’s a major leaguer so he has tha ability to hit it out.
I could be wrong but my recollection is that nearly all of the HRs have happened really early and to mostly players who are not significant HR threats. If my memory is slightly accurate then I’m not too worried….I could be wrong but at least Latos isn’t 1-4, which would suck.