Our Answer At Second
November 9th, 2009 | Published in Ben Davey, Padres, baseball, prospects | 5 Comments
by Ben Davey
All has been quiet over here on Friar Forecast for awhile, and I blame mb, and possibly the rest of the contributors for having lives. Anyway, I have been busy finishing up my top 30 prospects for madfriars, and that will be posted on here in a few weeks. So for right now, I am busy pretending to not be sick, and instead of getting that whole “sleep” thing that people always suggest I figured I would do the next best thing….blog about the Padres.
I begin by starting with a universal truth, that we Padre fans hold evident or however that saying goes…”Eckstein is not the answer.” I know, go figure 34 year old 2B with limited range who hit .260/.323/.334 with only 2 HR on the season is not the answer. So if Ecksein is not the best option for the future 2B of the Padres who is? While some Padre fans might argue that the Padres next 2B should come from outside the organization, the prospect of that looks grim. The Padres could spend money and give away prospects to acquire Dan Uggla, or take a flyer out on Kelly Johnson since he lost his starting job in Atlanta, but it would be hard for me to see either of those scenarios happening. So, like most of my posts, I see the Padres 2B of the future coming from within, and I offer up to candidates for the job…Eric Sogard and Lance Zawadzki
Eric Sogard is a 23 year old prospect drafted in the 2nd round in the 07 draft. In 2008 he was both a mid season and post season Cal League All Star, and recognized by BA as a HIgh Class A All-Star. This past year he continued his all-star streak by being named to the Texas League All-Star Game. Sogard is the type of guy that does all the little things to help a team win. He is a great contact hitter (striking out about 1/11 PA last year), more walks than strike outs, good BA (around .290-300) high OBP (.394 last year 370 this year), and is arguably the best hitter in the Padres system at moving runners. Sogard is a doubles hitter, but has the power to hit 5-10 HR a year while stealing around 10 bases as well. Also, arguably the strangest stat, is that while everyone else on the Missions, had great road numbers and horrible home numbers (a lot of comparisons of Wolff Stadium in SA to Petco) Sogard actually hit better .320/.406/.436 at home than on the road: .267/.335/.366. He is an ideal #2 hitter, and the type of player that a lot of us believe we need to have in order to win at Petco….small ball with good mechanics. Sogard is limited defensively in both range and fielding, but has been something that the Padres’ brass have been working extensively to improve.
Best case scenario he is a .300/.380/.400 guy, who is the ideal #2 hitter to move Cabrera over for the big guns. Average defender similar to Eckstein.
More Than Likely Scenario: Still a good contact hitter but hits closer to .268/.345/.360, still has the eye and ability to move runners over and work the count. A bit below average defensively.
Lance Zawadzki: Is a 24 year old prospect selected in the 4th round of the 2007 draft. Zawadzki is a very interesting prospect as he arguably the closest to 5 tools as anyone in the Padres upper minor leage levels. Zawadzki has a strong arm and is more than capable to play at either 2nd or Short. Offensively he is a switch hitter and has the ability to hit anywhere in the order. He has the speed (28 SB last year and 17 this year) and OBP (.369) to bat at or near the top. He has the power (15 HR last year) to bat further down in the lineup. His .283 career minor league BA and .792 career OPS suggest that he is a legit prospect up the middle. He as the ability to be a dominant player at either the minor league or major league level, the big thing with him is consistency and cutting down a bit on the strikeouts (101 and 103 the past 2 years).
Best Case Scenario: .285/.365/.440 with the ability to be a 20/20 guy at the MLB level
More Than Likely Scenario: .260/.340/.400 10-15 HR/SB. K’s are still a problem but no where near the degree that Khalil had.
So take your pick, do the Padres want consistency, a solid #2 hitter who can get runners over and in, great contact hitter who hits for a fairly high average….OR the potential 5 tool prospect, better defensively, pretty good BA/OBP/SLG but more K? Its hard to ignore Zawadzki’s potential and not make him the front runner, but Sogard just does so many things right that it would be difficult not to see him on an MLB roster even if it in a reserve role. Both will more than likely go the hitter friendly PCL, and it will be interesting to see what type of numbers they put up. If one or both of them put up great numbers, could we see Eckstein traded or moved to the bench mid season? Whether it is mid season, late season, or 2011, I think 2nd base will be another position that the Padres will be able to fill internally with young promising prospects (and hey if one faulters the other can step up….or we might see the resurgence of possibly DOA Matt Antonelli)
Ok 1:30 time to quit ignoring this stupid cold…As always go Padres!
Oh PS: Zawadzi was named an AFL All-Star and will be in the game tomorrow..err later today
November 9th, 2009 at 12:41 pm (#)
Big Sogard fan. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do in the PCL next year, and a possible September call-up.
November 9th, 2009 at 6:50 pm (#)
Toward the end of last season, someone at Gaslamp Ball had the idea of trying to convert Luis Durango into a second baseman. I’m all for that. Let’s get some more speed into the lineup. Go into spring training with the mindset that Durango is a Rule 5 draft pick who has to stay on the 25-man roster or be lost. Give him the same kind of crash-course in a new position that Everth Cabrera got at shortstop last year (Cabreara had been a second baseman, by the way). Exercise patience. Start him off with a little playing time here and there and increase the workload if he shows the ability.
November 9th, 2009 at 8:53 pm (#)
I’m pretty sure that the 99% of Padres fans who don’t have blogs love Eckstein.
November 9th, 2009 at 9:49 pm (#)
Durango used to be a second baseman. He was so bad defensively they moved him to the outfield even though he has a popgun arm and less power than Eckstein.
After a few seasons playing the outfield it’s not likely he’ll learn how to be adequate at second. It’s not like Cabrera, who played a fair amount of short in the minors and, if I’m not mistaken, in the winter leagues. He also had the tools for it.
It’s hard to see Durango fitting as a starter in the outfield and almost impossible to picture him succeeding at second. And if you were going to switch him, you’d do it in AAA, not in the majors.
November 9th, 2009 at 10:16 pm (#)
Fans love Eckstein because he goes about the game correctly, he is a pest at the plate, and is a solid contact hitter. Unfortunately for Eck, real baseball fans actually look at stats, and no stat puts eck in a very good light. A .657 OPS is horrible no matter where you play.
I cant see Durango playing 2nd mainly because with Zawadzki (who went 2-5 today, 2B, SB (4)) and Sogard, there is not the huge hole at 2nd that there has been since Barfield let. However with Hunter struggling this past year, Kulbacki being injured, and of course Blanks and Headley not really being real OF, there is a need in the OF. The only way I see Durango taking ground balls at 2nd is if the Padres are trying to make him into a super utility player. If Durango can play CF, LF, and 2nd he would be a nice late inning defensive replacement, pinch runner, pinch hitter, etc…