Padres fielding projections
November 22nd, 2009 | Published in Myron Logan, Padres, fielding | 7 Comments
by Myron Logan
Steve at Play a Hard Nine has been doing some excellent work with fielding projections for next year. The projections include a weighted (5-4-3) version of each player’s UZR, a scouting regression component (using the Fans Scouting Report ratings), and a regression to the league average of zero. Pretty neat. Here are some Padres:
| Player | Projected UZR |
| Will Venable, RF | +10 runs |
| Kouzmanoff, 3B | +3.5 |
| Adrian Gonzalez, 1B | 0 |
| David Eckstein, 1B | -1.5 |
| Everth Cabrera, SS | -2.5 |
| Brian Giles, RF | -6 |
Venable is the guy that stands out, and early on it appears as if he may be a really solid defensive player. So far, in 102 defensive games he’s +8.4 runs with UZR (playing both center and right). Of course, 102 games alone is not really a high enough number to get a solid grasp on his fielding skills. What is also promising about Venable, though, are his FSR ratings. In right field, Venable ranked fourth last year behind Ichiro, Brett Carroll, and Alex Rios. That is, however, only based on thirteen reports. I’ll admit, I’m a bit skeptical of that projection, but regardless Venable has been pretty impressive in the outfield thus far.
Everth Cabrera’s UZR was ugly last year at –12 runs in 110 defensive games (he didn’t look great by RZR either). He was equally bad in range and error runs, just over –6 in both. However, Cabrera was rated very highly in the FSR, with a 4.3 average rating (tenth amongst all shortstops). Using both the fans’ rating and the numbers (and a pretty heavy regression toward average), Cabrera’s projection is somewhat promising.
Anyway, these numbers are certainly not the end-all-be-all, but they are interesting and provide a nice basis for discussion.
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Quick programming note: I’m going to be at Friar Forecast on a more full-time basis, posting most of my Padres stuff here. It just makes more sense. Glad to be back.
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:45 am (#)
I too recently noticed the discrepancy between Cabrera’s poor UZR and solid FSR. I am really curious to see how he performs in the field next season. My guess is somewhere around average.
Before this post, I never really took note of Venable’s apparent quality fielding. If his fielding numbers do in fact hold up over a larger sample, he could end up being a pretty serviceable player.
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:54 am (#)
Howdy,
Glad some folks (outside of just me) are making use of the data.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:03 pm (#)
Daniel, yeah, I think it is going to be interesting to watch those two guys next year.
Steve, great job with this stuff!
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:10 pm (#)
How reliable are the fan rankings?
Of the 2009 Padres, they were close to the UZR rankings for Adrian (UZR: 3/FSR: 4) and Venable (4/4), but not so much with Kouz (5/12), Everth (24/10), and AJ (5/32).
On top of that, while Ichiro had 188 fan votes, the next seven right fielders combined for 163 votes. And we’re talking about players like Brett Caroll, who played 319 innings, and Alex Romero, who played 142.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:39 am (#)
Ray, good question — I don’t know the answer to it.
I like using the FSR for guys with not much playing time, like Cabrera who has only played 100+ games at the big league level. The FSR data is more meaningful, relative to the numbers, when players have played less innings, imo.
With regards to the vote totals, I’d definitely prefer more than the 10-20 most Padres have. However, my guess is that you don’t need that many ballots to get a pretty good idea on a player — i.e., the difference between 20 and 50 ballots may not be that big of a deal.
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:15 pm (#)
Cabrera is the Padre who concerns me the most, in this equation, given his penchant for flashy plays. Khalil had the same flair, but most metrics put him as a subpar defender.
Having said that, where are the results for all of the Padres?
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:40 pm (#)
Right here: http://www.tangotiger.net/scout/index4.php?teamid=135&team=San%20Diego%20Padres
Yeah, there could be some bias for players who make flashy plays but don’t make the more routine-looking plays. And vice versa. I don’t know.
I think Tango tried to mitigate that chance by breaking the FSR down into many components (hands, acceleration, arm strength, etc.).