Anthony Gwynn: A $12M player?
November 24th, 2009 | Published in Daniel Gettinger, Padres, baseball, fielding | 13 Comments
by Daniel Gettinger
I was browsing the Padres page on Fangraphs this evening and came across something absolutely shocking: Fangraphs estimates Anthony Gwynn was worth $12.6M last season.
Gwynn’s value is not derived from the bat, where he was about 2 runs below average. Instead, it comes almost entirely from his fielding.
Gwynn’s UZR, in only 113 games was was 13.6, or 19.4/150 games. He was exceptional both in CF, as well as RF.
As usual when dealing with fielding statistics, it is important to keep in mind the small sample, but Gwynn appears to have been a good fielder during his time in Milwaukee as well. In 51 games with the Brewers (over the 2007 and 2008 seasons), Gwynn compiled a UZR of 4.4 (nearly 13/150 games).
In Tango’s fan’s scouting report, Gwynn does not rate nearly as highly, garnering a fairly average 3.63 mark. However, only 16 votes were cast for Gwynn, so it is tough to tell what to make of his score there.
I am not convinced Gwynn is truly such a great fielder. The sample we have on him is incredibly small, and I certainly never thought he looked outstanding in the outfield, but if he does in fact prove to be an excellent defender, Gwynn could be a nice fourth outfielder.
With his decent speed, ability to play all of the outfield positions well, and affordability, Gwynn could prove to have actual value, not just a great last name.
November 24th, 2009 at 3:03 am (#)
Hey, good topic!
November 24th, 2009 at 10:19 am (#)
Hahaha, that’s really funny that on the same day we both got the urge to write about Anthony. For those of you who have not seen it (like me prior to 5 minutes ago), visit: http://thesacrificebunt.com/1682/the-sacrifice-cheat-sheet-centerfield/ for Ray’s thoughts.
Personally, I disagree slightly with Ray. I do not see Gwynn as more than a fourth outfielder. Not that he’s that much better, but I would rather the team start Venable (assuming they do not make a trade or sign a free agent) in center. Venable’s glove seems pretty similar to Gwynn’s (see Myron’s post), but he offers more with the bat.
November 24th, 2009 at 12:15 pm (#)
These are sorta general defensive comments, which seem to fit here as well as anywhere.
Defensive performance may be more prone to seasonal variation than we think. The majority of defensive plays are “easy,” in the sense that big leaguers (and even most minor leaguers) make them routinely. If that’s true, then the differences between most fielders are primarily found in a relatively small number of difficult plays, which gives us a continual sample size issue. At the extremes (Uggla vs Utley) the difference is more firmly grounded, but for many players it’s based on a handful of “extreme” chances.
Websoulsurfer talked about a player with great range “poaching” chances from his neighbors, specifically in the case of Cabrera and Kouzmanoff. That seems almost impossible. Third basemen are trained to take any ball they can get to on their left, because momentum carries them toward the bag. You almost never see a shortstop cut in front of a 3b to take a ball, unless it’s a squibber that moves unexpectedly toward the left-field line, and I can’t remember a 3b ever letting a ball in the hole go by because the SS is ranging behind him. That wouldn’t happen even with Belanger or Furcal. It’s still a longer throw with the shortstop moving away from the bag.
Poaching seems like it would be more likely in the outfield, and possibly with a rangy first baseman who snags balls that the 2b could have fielded. Maybe not often enough to be significant, but if it happens, it would happen there. But it doesn’t seem like we need to give Kouzmanoff bonus points because Cabrera infringed on his area of responsibility. A lack of range by the shortstop might lead a 3b to more aggressively play balls to his left, but a rangy teammate wouldn’t cause him to “lose” chances.
November 24th, 2009 at 4:41 pm (#)
To the poaching point, it doesn’t help that UZR lists Cabrera’s range below Kouzmanoff’s. But then that’s dependent on your faith in UZR to begin with. Cabrera’s OOZ numbers aren’t bad.
To the point of Venable in center, what’s the transfer rate from right field to center? How much do we have to deduce from Venable’s numbers to compensate for his potential change of position?
November 24th, 2009 at 6:46 pm (#)
I try to maintain an agnostic stance on fielding stats, but whatever UZR’s value, or those of any other measure, I can’t think of a way that it’d penalize Kouzmanoff for playing next to a rangy shortstop. Balls that Cabrera snagged in the hole were balls that Kouzmanoff couldn’t — not “chose not to,” but couldn’t — get to.
Good question on Venable. The demands on our CF are even higher than normal if Blanks plays left. It might be very helpful to have a plus defender in right so the CF could cheat some for the big man. Wonder if there’s a fit with Philadelphia for Michael Taylor? They need a 3b, but seem focused on the free agent market; they may need a closer, or at least a seasoned reliever, but might want that transaction to include Lidge.
November 25th, 2009 at 12:10 am (#)
Tom,
Have you ever played the game? Or even read a book on how to play the game?
The SS ALWAYS has the play in the infield. Its his ball unless he can’t get to it. You ALWAYS give way to him.
Same for the CF.
So try again.
November 25th, 2009 at 12:14 am (#)
UZR blew it again. Sometimes your eye doesn’t lie.
Your eyes told you Gwynn got bad jumps, took bad routes and dropped more balls than just about any outfielder in baseball.
Gwynn is not good enough to win the starting job, let alone be worth $12 million.
November 25th, 2009 at 9:06 am (#)
Websoulsurfer, you’re going to get slivers from grasping at that many straws.
Everyone who’s played 3b even at the little league level is told that the 3b takes anything he can reach to his left, because his momentum leads to a stronger, more accurate throw, either to 2b or 1b.
Anybody who’s watched more than a handful of games has seen the 3b swoop in front of the shortstop on a chopper or lunge to his left to snag a ball before it gets to the hole. I’ve been watching baseball for more than 30 years and I can’t recall ever seeing a 3b pull his glove up so the shortstop could take the play behind him. The only time a SS fields a grounder that the 3b might get is when it’s so loaded with spin that both fielders arrive at the same location simultaneously, and the shortstop grabs it. I bet many teams go entire seasons without that happening.
Shortstops tend to make plays on pop-flies that a 3b might be able to handle, but since UZR doesn’t include pop-flies, that doesn’t support your claim.
Does this seriously require further discussion? You came up with an interesting hypothesis that doesn’t hold up. Getting angry and defensive about it doesn’t change anything. Sometimes it’s better to simply say “Oh yeah, I hadn’t thought of that,” and move on.
November 25th, 2009 at 11:51 am (#)
Yeah, Web, I have never really heard that before. fwiw, I do actually play baseball (shocker, huh? ; ). I actually played a lot of third last year, though I really hadn’t before that. It was always my understanding, and my coach told me numerous times, that I should try to get anything I could to my left, because as Tom says, it is generally an easier play for the 3b.
I played next to a pretty rangy shortstop (by small JC standards), and I can’t really say that he had much effect on my positioning or the balls I got to at third.
Fielding does, in a lot of different ways, involve your teammates. However, I think you are overstating the case a bit with Cabrera/Kouzmanoff.
November 25th, 2009 at 12:17 pm (#)
Myron, I heard the same thing, too, from Little League through an undistinguished HS “career.” It was directed at me when I played third and I heard it plenty of other times when I played elsewhere. Even the good shortstops in rec-league softball said it, and none of us had any range at all by that point in our musculoskeletal lives.
I’m not surprised that someone might think that a rangy shortstop could steal balls from a third baseman. I’m very surprised to see the “evidence” for it being based on experience. It sounds like something a relatively naive statistician might say. Anyone who’s played or watched much baseball, at all, knows that 3b don’t defer to shortstops on balls in the hole. If the 3b can get it, he does. If he can’t, the SS hopefully goes back there and makes the play anyway. But no 3b thinks “I could make that play, but I’d better let the SS have it. After all, he’s the shortstop, even if his body is moving away from the bag and the throw is longer.”
November 25th, 2009 at 9:00 pm (#)
Yeah, the “have you ever played” argument is a classic logical fallacy.
Tom and Myron are right, rangey shortstops have nothing to do with 3B’s getting to balls. The 3b’s either do or don’t. The only way it would possibly factor in is if the SS had way more chances that he didn’t make. I.e., he picked a lot of balls in the hole that a 3B didn’t grab before him and wasn’t able to make the throw…which will be the case the majority of the time on such balls.
November 25th, 2009 at 11:15 pm (#)
By the way, Gwynn’s projected as a +4 fielder in center, by the projections from Play A Hard Nine that I referenced the other day. That seems like a pretty good balance between the impressive early numbers and the FSR.
November 26th, 2009 at 1:19 pm (#)
Thanks Myron, +4 seems pretty reasonable to me as well.