The great debate
November 8th, 2007 | Published in Khalil Greene, Padres, Sabermetrics, baseball, player evaluation | 18 Comments
No, it’s not stats vs. scouts. No, it’s not “bashers” vs. “gushers” (whatever the hell that is). It’s not about replacement level.
As The Phantom of the Padres blogosphere has declared, it’s the debate between those who love Khalil Greene and those who don’t. Now, we’ll discount those who love Khalil because his blond locks (not that their opinion doesn’t count!) and try to look at it from a baseball standpoint. For the heck of it, we’ll try to be objective about it, because that’s kinda the whole point (although it’s hard, if not impossible, to be completely objective). Anyway, first a little background on Greene and why this divide may exist amongst hardcore Padres fans.
- He makes a ton of outs. It has been drilled into people’s heads that making outs is terrible. And it really is.
- He plays great defense that is sometimes believed to be overrated.
- He plays shortstop, which is the position furthest right on the defensive spectrum (not counting catcher).
- He has very good power for a shortstop, which sometimes may be overlooked.
- This is not very baseball related, but he has a “strange” personality and may sometimes come of as not caring (I believe that is bs, but this isn’t about me ; ).
Alright, with that out of the way, let’s try to tackle this in three steps. First, let’s estimate his offensive value. Then we’ll try to estimate his defensive value. And finally, we’ll add in a positional adjustment for playing short. After all of that, we’ll check out Tango’s Salary Scale to see approximately how much money he would be worth if he was a free agent.
Offense
For offense I’ll admittedly go the easy route and just use BP’s EqA. I’d prefer using some form of linear weights, but I don’t have that tabulated (although I may sometime soon) and I don’t believe it’s available anywhere. The advantage of EqA is that it’s throws in steals and, more importantly, is park adjusted. Despite being overly complicated, it will work pretty well to estimate his offensive value. According to Tango, you can convert EqA to runs quite easily: PA * (EqA - league avg. EqA):
2005: +0
2006: +1.4
2007: +2.7
Weighting that 5-4-3 it comes out 1.6 runs above average. We’ll call him average on offense (without regarding position).
Defense
The Fans have him rated at 79. The overall average for shortstops is about 59. Assuming .7 runs per point (which is what Tango et al. are assuming, I think), that puts him at about +14 runs on defense this year.
John Dewan’s plus/minus has him at +7 plays this year, which is about 5 runs above average. MGL’s UZR has him at +9 per 150 from 2003-mid2007. We’ll call him +10 runs (0r 1 win) defensively.
Positional adjustment/aging
For position, we’ll tack on the usual +5 for playing short. We don’t need to do much for aging, as Greene is right in his prime at 28.
So, in runs above average (just approximations):
Hitting: +0
Fielding: +10
Position: +5
So, going forward, I think it’s safe to evaluate him as a ~15 runs above average type player. Replacement level is around 20 runs below that for a full season, so he’s about 35 runs above replacement level. Compare that to what JinAz just did, and he’d be about the third best position player on the Reds.
Yet another update: I kind of account for it down below, so it shouldn’t effect the numbers much, but I should mention it … you can’t just add on the 20 runs above replacement, because that’s assuming a full year (I believe). If we project Greene at about 80% of a full season, that means we should add around 16 runs above replacement, instead of the full 20.
Salary Scale
Tango’s Salary Scale attempts to find what a player’s worth on the free agent market. Let’s call Greene a 3.0 WAR player (we’ll take off a little for regression/injuries) just to be conservative. That puts him in line for contracts like these:
1 year/12m
2 years/23m
3 years/33m
4 years/41m
Greene of course is under control until 2010 and will make considerably less than that. Last year, for example, he made about 2.25 mill.
There are still many things to talk about and discuss with Greene. I mean, for one, saying he isn’t a moneyball player is only based on the idea that moneyball=walks/obp and that is not really true at all. You could argue that his outs certainly impact him negatively as a ball player (they certainly do), but his power/position/fielding make up for it enough to make him into a well above average player.
Still, even acknowledging that, it’s not out of the question that Greene could, at some point, be traded. I don’t think organizations really put anyone out of the question when it comes to trades. If a trade can bring in more value than it gives up, in most all situations the team will probably make the deal. Of course, that’s complicated by many factors such as money, prospects, replacements for the traded player, and so on.
But please don’t mind me and let the debate rage on!
(this was not meant to be a true analysis of Greene — there are many assumptions made, shortcuts taken, etc … just a mere approximation of his value)
Update: Tango has the new Salary Scale up. I was using last year’s, which is based on 4m per marginal win, instead of 4.4m (due to 10% inflation). The numbers are relatively close, but I figured I should let you know, anyway.
November 8th, 2007 at 8:15 pm (#)
I think the unexpected talents Khalil possesses (superhuman defense, good power at a tough position) outweigh the one glaring negative (putrid BA/OBP). Also, given his price, we’re still getting great value for the dollar with him - even if he misses 30 games a year due to injury.
I like your analysis - everytime I read your material, I learn a little more about what all the numbers mean in the grand scheme of things.
November 8th, 2007 at 9:42 pm (#)
Thanks, Brian. If you ever have a question/comment please feel free to comment or email me (not that I am an expert by any means). I’m still learning new stuff everyday and it’s always fun (and I enjoy talking about it). Click on the links too, if you wish, as they are generally helpful. Anyway, not that you need it … I just read your post on Peavy … good stuff again : ) (and, yes, I need another hobby other than surfing the net)
Regarding your first paragraph … I agree. Some people, I think, want to say “his obp sucks, so he can’t be good.” It just isn’t that simple. He happens to provide enough value in other facets of the game to make up for that. As I said on DS the other day, if he played an average left field and hit like this, he wouldn’t be nearly as valuable — but that isn’t the case. In fact, it’s far from it when he add in plus defense at a premium position.
And, yea, for his price, he’s a steal. That’s another thing I think some people forget. All of that said, he could always be traded. It would just have to be for “the right deal.”
November 9th, 2007 at 11:52 am (#)
First off, HT for recognizing me as the unofficial official Padres blog Khalil Greene authority. If you think my rep at DS is amusing, you should see some of the stuff they say about me and Khalil at GLB.
I think you break this down realistically and nicely. With today’s announcement of Towers wanting to extend Khalil, I think we can safely say that the team understands that Khalil is an integral piece of the Padres puzzle. It will be very interesting to see what we hear of the negotiations, as well as the eventual dollar figure that Khalil receives.
I fully admit that Khalil has his warts, but I do think that he is unfairly vilified for his attitude. As you’ve pointed out, that’s total crap, but it is what it is. Regardless, I think signing Khalil to an extension makes a ton of sense for a couple reasons:
- The IF is now set for at least 3 years with a great group of core players who are still relatively young.
- Khalil is still a reasonably priced talent (assuming that he signs a deal below market value).
- He’s a potential franchise player who will, along with Adrian, and as long as he stays, Jake, take over as the face of the franchise once Hoffy and Giles move on.
November 9th, 2007 at 12:32 pm (#)
Thanks for stopping by, Phantom (I knew I’d get ya ; ) Your comments are entertaining and insightful … feel free to stop by and comment whenever you’d like
I just saw the article and I think it’s good that they want to bring back Khalil (or at least that’s what they’re saying). It’ll be interesting to see what kind of deal gets done, considering Khalil of course isn’t a free agent until 2010 (he doesn’t have as much leverage). If he figures without signing a new deal, he makes ~12m over the next two years, then he can go into free agency from there. Say, at that point, he can sign a 4 year, 40m deal (inflation, but his true talent goes down). So that’s about 52 million over the next 6 years if he chooses to not sign a deal now (of course, just a random guess by me).
Now, if he signs an extension soon, you have to figure he’ll get less overall money, but it’ll be guaranteed. The question kind of becomes how much of that 52m in 6 years does Khalil need to extend right now? Let’s say the Pads will give him 32 m for 4 years, which buys out 2 years of his free agency. Then he only has to make 20 in 2 years to equal what he would have gotten. I’d say somewhere in that range if reasonable for bith San Diego and Greene, but really of course I have no idea.
I agree with your general opinion on Greene and the three points at the bottom of your post. He’s a flawed player (like most), but he’s still very good overall.
November 9th, 2007 at 2:02 pm (#)
I really suck at estimating contracts and money, so what you’ve suggested seems reasonable. Inflation in baseball is getting almost ridiculous, which makes it incredibly difficutlt to accurately price talent anymore.
I think the FO making a public overture on the grounds of this contract is a good sign that they believe a deal is possible. Either that, or they expect Khalil to try to kill them in arbitration and want to put forth a “well we tried” front. However, Khalil doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy to be in it for the money, and given his injury history, I think he’ll probably take a guaranteed below market deal.
November 9th, 2007 at 3:56 pm (#)
I agree on both accounts …. that the Padres want to try and get him locked up and that Khalil isn’t all about money. Still, I think he’ll look for a good deal, as this is the time in his career where he should be able to cash in (well, when free agency comes).
You make a good point about injuries. If Khalil thinks he may actually have some trouble there, he may want to take the locked in money. Just another variable to throw into the mix …
November 9th, 2007 at 11:36 pm (#)
Great job walking through this. I think it would be interesting to compare his contribution to some other prominent shortstops (mainly I want to see him be more valuable than Jeter and his -20 fielding
) and a guy or two that would be representative of the type of player we could replace him with (Eckstein, Vizquel, Uribe, Robles, etc.). That would give a good idea of what kind of return would be necessary to justify a trade.
November 10th, 2007 at 9:48 am (#)
Thanks, Ben.
I think he’s a lot closer to guys like Jeter than people think, but Jeter’s overrated, at least to me, because of his perceived leadership skills (where is that when the yanks lose?) and his terrible defense (as you mention). MGL says quite often that he thinks he may be the most overpaid player in the game.
Greene blows those other guys out of the water because he brings both offense and defense. I may take a look in the future, though.
November 13th, 2007 at 9:06 am (#)
[...] The great debate (Friar Forecast). Speaking of Khalil Greene, here’s a nice little summary that should help Big- and Little-endians alike. [...]
November 13th, 2007 at 11:41 am (#)
A quibble. You say, “You could argue that his outs certainly impact him negatively as a ball player (they certainly do), but his power/position/fielding make up for it enough to make him into a well above average player.”
But your numbers, +15 runs above average, show him to be only slightly above avearage, not well above. He’s well above a replacement player, which his frequent injuries force us into using during the many games he misses, but he’s only a win and a half (if 10 runs equals a win as you mention) above an average player. Or only one win above an average SS since 5 of those runs come from your positional adjustment.
I’m not trying to pick on your analysis, which is vastly superior to anything I could do, but I’m trying to point out how far down his poor offense (or more specifically poor K-zone discipline and judgement) drags him.
November 13th, 2007 at 1:55 pm (#)
Thanks for dropping in, Pat.
I agree with your quibble : ) imo, it’s all in the eye of the beholder with statements like that. That’s why I try to use numbers in most cases so it isn’t simply opinion and my idea of “well above average” … it would have been better if I compared +15 runs to everyone or to all shortstops or something like that … to see where exactly Greene comes in (I don’t have that calculated, but I may … could do it with VORP and a defensive measure easy enough).
So, “well above average” may have been a bit too much, like you say. I think he’s clearly above average, but there’s a definite (pretty big) gap between Khalil and the best players in the league. Saying “well above” could mean anything from +15 to +40, which is of course huge.
On your second point, it depends on how you’re looking at it/who you’re talking to. If someone thinks Khalil’s an mvp candidate because of his defense, position, and whatever else then I’d use the whole “his offense isn’t that great” stance. And vice versa for those who think he sucks because of his offense. The goal is to try to put both together and see where he falls, and that happens to be on the good side of average, which is pretty valuable for the money he brings in.
Good points and nice to have you aboard, Pat.
November 13th, 2007 at 2:03 pm (#)
When going through the 2007 numbers, I was surprised at how valuable Greene was. Hadn’t really paid him any attention. But I will now.
November 13th, 2007 at 3:04 pm (#)
Hey Sky … here’s Sky’s shortstop ratings this year:
http://skyking162.com/2007/11/2007-review-top-shortstops/
If you stop back, what are you using for offense (some form of linear weights, I assume .. )?
Anyway, he’s got Greene at 41 runs above replacement
(6th overall) and ahead of guys like Tejada (+31) and Jeter (+22). He’s a real “hidden value” type player, imo. I’d like to see the baserunning numbers on Greene in the Bill James handboook (I have to pick up the 08 version). I know one year he ranked very poorly there, which was somewhat surprising. Also could track down Fox’s ratings …
November 13th, 2007 at 4:09 pm (#)
An even-tempered analysis? What’s going on here? I thought Khalil Greene is the most divisive among the Padres’ fans, and here you have to go and ruin that.
Great job, man. That’s the thing with Greene, his perceived faults are greater (outs, low OBP) than his perceived value of production and good defense. I’m surprised, however, at how cheap he is in this crazy market for the value he brings to the team.
For comparison, Troy Tulowitski road numbers are abysmal but he plays great defense. Some thought him to be a much better player than Greene. I’m guessing he’s more valuable to the Rockies since he’s drawing only a first year rookie salary.
November 13th, 2007 at 7:35 pm (#)
haha, thanks Didi : )
Yeah, I’d say Tulo is a notch above Greene. At least he was last year he was when trying to account for everything. Check the link to Sky’s blog above, if you want to see some numbers. If his glove is as good as it was last year, he’s going to be a fine player.
November 26th, 2007 at 4:07 am (#)
[...] Speaking of shortstops, MB at Friar Forecast presents the relative merits of Khalil Greene. [...]
November 27th, 2007 at 8:16 am (#)
Nice anlysis MB. Khalil’s detractors always point to his low OBP but it’s really his only flaw as a player. A huge flaw to be sure but he does everything else well. I think those free agent numbers sound about right but if he were to somehow be granted free agency today I think he’d get even more.
Is EqA park adjusted using the same numbers for all players? As an extreme fly ball hitter, Khalil is abolutely killed by Petco. Tulowitzki is a good young player but imagine Khalil’s road numbers (.840 career OPS) added to his Coors numbers (1.078 OPS), stretched out to 81 games in Denver. He’d be a .900+ OPS shortstop and probably be considered one of the top 3 shortstops in the game.
November 27th, 2007 at 12:54 pm (#)
Hey, Anthony.
I am 90% sure that EqA is adjusted just by using a runs based factor, and not by components (i.e., it’s the same for all players whether they are ground ball or fly ball guys or whatever).
I think that’s fine for value, but for a better estimation of actual ability you would probably want to use component based factors like you’re saying. Patriot has some stuff on PF’s: http://gosu02.tripod.com/id103.html
Greene probably is hurt by his somewhat high fb% rate and that’s another thing to consider if you’re the Padres … or another team.