Weekend links
November 29th, 2009 | Published in Myron Logan, links | 3 Comments
by Myron Logan
ZIPS projections for the Padres are up at Baseball Think Factory.
Jeff Zimmerman offers some free agent projections – Mike Cameron, a possible candidate for centerfield, is projected at 2 WAR.
Speaking of centerfield, Ray at the The Sacrifice Bunt takes a look at the situation in center for next year – I like the idea of going with a young, cheap player like Anthony Gwynn over an overpaid free agent, however, I’m not yet sure if I’d pick Gwynn over Will Venable to be that player.
Colin Wyers has published some base running ratings for 2009 at THT – Everth Cabrera was the most valuable Padre at +4 runs.
Matt Antonelli has a blog, and it is pretty good.
November 30th, 2009 at 1:21 pm (#)
I have very little confidence in Venable.
I hope he proves me wrong, but I don’t get the feeling he can repeat his 09 campaign, and he only posted a .331 wOBA this year. He didn’t walk a lot, and he’s never walked a lot, and he didn’t hit the ball hard enough to think his power will stay up.
Granted, AJ has his own huge problems, but he’s also shown he can handle centerfield, which Venable has not.
November 30th, 2009 at 11:27 pm (#)
Zip is exactly the level of confidence I have in those BBTF projections.
They are basically trying to say almost every Padres player is going to regress even though a large percentage are at an age and number of years of service where past performance says they should be improving.
432 AB from Salazar? WTF?
Adrian Gonzalez HR totals are going to drop 5 when they have improved each of the last 3 seasons and his BA drop 9 points when it has dropped 5 points in 3 seasons? I don’t think so. Somehow his OPS+ is going to drop 23 points? Makes no logical sense at all.
And David Ortiz is a comp for Adrian? WTF? He doesn’t even play 1B and hasn’t in years.
Eckstein’s abs are going to drop by nearly 25%?
Forsythe is going to get 522 abs? Darnell is going to get 505 abs? Pascucci 437? Why even bother to make those predictions? They are just not going to happen so you look stupid from the start.
Italiano 17 starts? Not even in the realm of possibility at this point.
Banks, Geer and Silva 69 starts between them? They aren’t even on the Padres minor league rosters right now as far as I know.
Yes you need to give projections for a few minor league guys, but seriously - Darnell getting 505 abs and Italiano getting 17 starts? Why?
December 1st, 2009 at 1:00 pm (#)
Web, he specifically says that he’s not projecting playing time:
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
****
I can’t see how Gonzalez’s projection is too out of line. A 143 OPS+ would be he second highest OPS+ season ever. The projections are essentially taking the last few years of performance, regressing it to some mean, and then maybe adding in some extra adjustments for age and whatnot.