Previewing Portland’s Starting Pitching
March 15th, 2010 | Published in Ben Davey, Mat Latos, San Diego Padres, baseball, prospects | 10 Comments
by Ben Davey
As I have referenced in almost all of my previous posts, the Portland Beaver’s pitching will be by far the toughest thing to accurately predict. There is a large crop of talent that will be battling for a few spots on the AAA rotation and pen. In a normal offseason, you might see a couple of the AAA main starters leave, a few be promoted to the San Diego Padres major league club, and only one or two remaining for a repeat tour of AAA. And to some extent that remains true for this offseason.
Last year the Beavers had 12 starters make at least 5 starts for the Beavers, and none of them made more than 20 starts (Leblanc). Of those 12, Josh Banks, Walter Silva, Michael O’Connor, Brian Lawrence, and Josh Geer will all definitely be gone. Sean Gallagher is out of options, and will be with the Padres, and Matt Buschmann will be out of the rotation and battling for a bullpen spot (if he’s not released). The sad thing is that already leaves the Beavers with 5 members from last years team (Poreda, Leblanc, Inman, Carrillo, Ramos), and thats not including players moving up from AA or a certain top prospect moving down from the majors.
Last year the Beavers ranked 10th (of 16) in ERA at 4.56, 13th in K (907), and 10th in WHIP (1.44). I will say that we should expect some improvement in this number as a lot of the “fat” (see above) has been cut, and of course the addition of a certain “no longer rookie” top pitching prospect will help too. So with that being said I will go through the starters and relievers, starting with the locks, and moving down to the “good luck” players. Note, I am assuming 12 pitchers (5 starters, 7 relievers on the roster).
One of the most interesting things about this staff is it could feature 3 pitchers who at one point were their teams #1 overall prospect (Latos, Poreda, Carrillo), another that was ranked in the top 100 overall prospects (Inman), plus another supplemental first (Ramos), an 2nd round (Leblanc) pick. On paper this rotation is crazy good…
Locks:
Mat Latos (22, RHP)- Last year Latos jumped from Low A to the Padres and is no longer a rookie (by 1 inning). He has a career minor league record of 12-8, 2.49 ERA, 184 IP, 216 K. Anyone reading this does not need me to tell you how great Latos is. He has a Mid 90’s fastball, above average secondary pitches, and improved command and mechanics that he has shown in ST so far. He could easily end up being the Padres ace by seasons end, but with Gallagher and Stauffer both out of options, Latos is 95% sure to start the season in AAA to gain a bit more experience (only 47 IP in AA or AAA) before coming back to the bigs.
Aaron Poreda (23, LHP) Like Latos, he was at one point the White Sox top prospect. He is a big lefty, with a big time fastball. That alone will give him every chance possible to succeed. At the top end, his ceiling is probably a legit #2 starter. Now the likelihood of him reaching that potential… (hint this will be a reoccurring theme). He needs to be able to spot the fastball and work on his secondary pitches. He spent all of the off season working with the Padres staff, so we will see when the season starts if that makes a difference.
Wade Leblanc (25, LHP) Honestly, Leblanc has nothing left to prove in AAA. He has logged over 259 AAA innings, and will be starting his 3rd go around with the Beavers. What else is there to say? Best change-up in the organization, decent fastball and secondary pitches. He doesnt project nearly as high as Poreda or Latos, but could easily be a solid lefty #4 or 5 starter for a big league team…just waiting for his shot (again)
Battling it Out:
Cesar Carrillo (25, RHP) I was debating whether to put him in the locked category or not, but if I did that would be 4 locks for 5 spots so I thought #1 on the next list. Carrillo is a top prospect who was derailed by TJ surgery in 2007. Since then Carrillo has struggled to regain his form since then. His ceiling would be a solid #3 starter in the big leagues. At his best Carrillo can consistently hit 94 on the gun, has an above average curve used as a great K pitch, and a solid change. Well by the end of last season we saw the FB speed return, but the command was gone, the curve went from a hammer to a slow looper…but the change improved netting him more GB outs. Reports from ST are promising, the command is better and the curve looks sharper. If this carries over to the regular season we will see a lower ERA, more K, and a way better overall pitcher. I’m optimistic and he’s my sleeper pick so stay tuned on Carrillo.
Cesar Ramos (25, LHP) Ramos had some bad luck last season. After a disappointing 2008 season (9-11 5.29 ERA in 149 IP in Portland) Ramos seemed like a completely different pitcher in 2009, and due to injuries and bad pitching in SD it looked like Ramos would get to taste the big leagues early in 2009. Unfortunately after a great start on 5-23 (6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K) he was injured in his next and final start for 3 months lasting only 1.1 IP (4 ER). When he returned he couldnt quite duplicate his earlier success. Ramos is another guy who has logged way too many AAA innings (226) and will begin his 3rd season with the Beavers. He is a back of the rotation starter without the ++ pitch like Leblanc’s change. His FB can get up to the low 90’s but he is mainly a 2 pitch pitcher as his slider is a big ?. Still he is on the 40 man roster, so that counts for something.
Will Inman (23, RHP) Pre-2007 ranked as the #91 prospect in all of baseball (BA). At 23 Inman is still considered young for AAA, but has spent the last 3 years between AA and AAA. His future went from incredibly bright to fading fast. In 2007 he was top 5 in all minor league pitchers with 180 K, but that number has steadily declined. Last year he was shelled in Portland going 1-4, 6.71 ERA, in 12 starts. And as such was not protected (added to the 40 man roster) for the Rule V draft. His greatest + and - is his delivery. It is incredibly deceptive, but is a mechanical nightmare. The Padres have done everything from tweaking the mechanics to changing the arm angle, and this offseason they taught him a new pitch…the cutter. We will see if it makes a difference, but it should be viewed as a slap in the face that not only was he not placed on the 40 man roster, but Inman was invited to big league camp. Inman can still turn into a solid big league starter, he just needs to get everything in order first…
Ernesto Frieri (24, RHP) Went 10-9 with a 3.59 ERA in AA last year, and was the Missions most consistent pitcher throughout the year. Frieri was 8th in the Texas League in ERA, 3rd in K (118), 3rd in BAA (.237), 3rd in runners stranded % (74.2), but was also 4th in BB allowed. He was added to the Padres 40 man roster and in 2 games last year did not allow a hit striking out 2 and walking 1. He consistently sits in the low 90’s with his fastball (topping out at 95), and has an improved curve. The change is still a WIP, and he needs to gain better control with the curve, but his ability to spot the FB with a good deceptive delivery makes him a nightmare to hit against. He has earned a chance to start in AAA but will it be given to him?
Steve Garrison (23, LHP) Well at least this will be slightly easy. He will start the season on the DL after injuring his knee on his very last pitch of the AFL (he got the out), his timeline is set for May. Garrison is another bad luck pitcher. Mechanically he is a dream for pitching coaches, everything is smooth and fluid. Despite this Garrison was the one to go down with the arm injury in 2008. Before that Garrison had yielded 1 run or fewer in 10 of his 24 starts in AA (2008), including a 7 inning no hitter in April. Garrisons best feature is his control. Throughout his career has averaged fewer than a BB every 4 IP (2.21 BB/9). Garrison can locate his FB (87-90 mph) with pinpoint control. He is also able to throw both the slider and curve with good control and movement. He has an improving change, and when used with the rest of his pitches is a good change of pace pitch. On occasion Garrison will miss with control, and when that happens he gets shelled. Garrison was added to the 40 man roster, and while he doesnt have the ceiling of any of the players above him, he is the closest to reaching that ceiling. Best case scenario he ends up being a great back of the rotation lefty starter. When he is on he can be successful at any level, when hes off well thats another story (think BLaw circa 2002 (210 IP, 3.69 ERA)). The Padres will give Garrison every chance to show his success, and will be given a spot come May.
Others of note that have a chance (barely) Corey Luebke, Matt Buschmann, Nathan Culp, Stephen Faris….and because I want to throw it out there CLAYTON RICHARD (haha). Thats 7 quality pitchers for 5 spots, and 1 coming off the DL in May.
My guess: Latos, Leblanc, Carrillo, Poreda, Inman (R/L/R/L/R). I think Ramos starts in the pen, and Frieri could be moved to the AA pen or take the #5 spot away from Inman.
On Thursday I will look at the candidates for the 7 bullpen spots, Perdomo, Russel, Webb, Burke, DeMark, Gomes, Scribner, Worrel, Ellis, and of course the players listed above. Not only who will make the team but who will be the closer, 8th and 7th guys? Is there a chance Frieri becomes the closer? Does Burke keep the role, or does Scribner and the triple headed monster coming up from AA take over? On the bright side survival of the fittest should mean a better overall team, even if it means we let players go that end up having solid MLB career (or at least MLB careers).
March 15th, 2010 at 11:18 pm (#)
After 29 wins including a pair of playoff wins in his first two years, all of a sudden Nathan Culp is on the also-ran list. If one just bases their opinions on 2009 stats alone(8-9 4.21)you don’t get an accurate picture of how good he really was last year:
*11 no decisions overall in which his ERA was 3.24
*1 ND he was charged with 9 earned runs, (3 of his base runners plating after he departed) - the other 10 NDs his ERA was 2.15.
*Culp gave up 2 runs or fewer in 10 of his 11 NDs. And overall, in 18 of his 28 starts.
* He had 1 win and 4 NDs when leaving with a 1-run or 2-run lead.
* when leaving behind by one or two runs, he was 0-1 with 5 NDs.
* San Antonio scored 83 runs while he remained in the game. 23 of those occurred in 3 games. Thus in 25 of his 28 starts SA scored a total of 60 runs while he was pitching, an average of 2.4 runs/game.
*SA was shut out in 4 of his starts. They scored 2 or fewer runs in 12 of 28 his starts. (0-5, 7 ND’s.
* Culp was 0-8 when his team scored 3 runs or less.
* He was 8-0 with 10 NDs when he gave up 2 or fewer runs.
* Without runners scoring after he departed, his era was 3.69.
* On two occasions Culp was charged with 9 earned runs. Factoring those out, his era was 3.35 for the other 26 starts.
* In summary, Culp could easily have won 14 or 15 games again, with an ERA around 3.70.
* I submit if those were the stats you were seeing, you would be raving about him.
March 16th, 2010 at 8:42 am (#)
@Bruce
The stat that matters most for Culp, and for any young pitcher, are strikeouts. I don’t know if you could find a successful major leaguer who averaged less than 5 K’s per 9 in the minors, only 4.2 in 08 and not even 4 last year in AA. Nobody’s anti-Culp, but history says that K rate is unsustainable. His major league equivalencies, which should be viewed skeptically but are based on a lot of research, give him a major league k/9 of 3.01. Nobody succeeds in the majors with a K rate that low.
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=502155
You also can’t forget that San Antonio’s home park depresses offense for both sides. Yes, the Missions sometimes didn’t score for him, but many of those games were at home, when the park helped Culp keep runs off the board.
March 16th, 2010 at 8:12 pm (#)
@Tom
I agree with you in general. I was just looking at Randy Jones’s stats though, and in his 8 years with the Padres, only twice did he post K/9 rates of higher than 4.00.
March 16th, 2010 at 10:46 pm (#)
@Zach
True enough, but the average strikeout rate was much lower then, and Randy Jones was something of a freak, much like Mark Fydrich. A very short peak, not all that much career value.
Baseball almost 40 years ago placed a premium on hitters NOT striking out. For example, the Phillies led the NL in strikeouts in Jones’ 1976 campaign with 960. That would have placed them last in strikeouts in 2009, 300+ K’s behind last year’s leader. NL pitchers averaged 2 less strikeouts per game back then.
None of this is personal, but Culp is a helluva lot more likely to be a LH Junior Herndon than the next Randy Jones. His W-L record if we ignore some bad starts and his home park doesn’t make it any more likely.
March 17th, 2010 at 12:52 am (#)
Last years lowest K/9 amongst pitchers that threw at least 160 innings.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=160&type=1&season=2009&month=0
Some good ones, some bad ones, but only one under 4.0 k/9.
Even if Culp were to maintain his 2009 level of 3.9 k/9 in the majors, it still makes him a marginal pitcher at the ML level.
March 17th, 2010 at 4:25 am (#)
The big issue we are dealing with is potential ceilings of players. Every player that I listed has the potential/ceiling of being a solid everyday starting pitcher in the majors (with the exception of maybe Ramos). The reason I didnt list Culp is mainly because he does not have the ceiling of the others, and in a limited rotation Culp is more than likely squeezed out of a spot. Tom was also right in noting that one of the big indicators of major league success, or failure, is K/9 numbers in the minors, which is something Culp doesnt have.
Culp reminds me a lot of Josh Geer, except he did not have nearly as good of year in the Texas League. He could probably have some success in AAA and maybe get a few starts in the majors, but will almost certainly not be a mainstay. Unfortunately for Culp with the Padres not giving any spots to young guys and the terrific young LE pitching coming into SA. If Culp is starting it probably will not be with the Padres organization
March 17th, 2010 at 4:43 pm (#)
So far in the battle for the fifth spot, it looks like a Latos/Leblanc choice. They pitched four innings apiece the other day, with Latos giving up a run with two walks and three strikeouts. Leblanc gave up no runs with no walks and three strikeouts. What got me was that Latos threw 57 pitches with a 2/7 groundout/flyball ratio, while Leblanc threw 44 pitches with a 7/1 groundball/flyball ratio.
It’s still too early for a decision, but from what I’ve seen so far, Leblanc is about as ready as he’ll ever be, while Latos’ limited pro experience will work against him. That brings up Stauffer, who’s pitched horribly so far. Do clubs put enough stock in ST that he’ll pass through waivers and replace Leblanc in Portland?
March 18th, 2010 at 12:06 am (#)
“Randy Jones was something of a freak, much like Mark Fydrich. A very short peak, not all that much career value.”
TW, not arguing with your point on K rates, which I agree with, but I think the reason Jones has very little career value is because of his arm injury, not because he couldn’t sustain his success with his K rate.
March 18th, 2010 at 10:23 am (#)
@Pat
Both Jones and The Bird suffered injuries, almost certainly because their extraordinary ground-ball tendencies led to overuse. It’s impossible to prove that either player would have continued to succeed without the injuries, but they could have been exceptions. They were well-suited to the period in which they played, when the strike zone was at least close to the rule book definition, many hitters would rather roll an easy 4-3 groundout than walk back to the dugout with a bat in their hands, and teams placed a premium on up-the-middle defense.
When Bill James looked at this problem, IIRC, the key indicator wasn’t absolute strikeout rate but a pitcher’s K rate compared to the average.
March 25th, 2010 at 3:08 am (#)
According to John and Denis over at madfriars the Padres will start Poreda in the pen (in Portland) at least to begin the year. I am guessing that might give Ramos his spot back in the rotation
So Latos, Leblanc, Carillo, Ramos, Inman (or Frieri). Although the way Leblanc and Latos are pitching I really dont know ow the Padres are going to send them down….