Why The San Diego Padres Should Trade Heath Bell
March 25th, 2010 | Published in Daniel Gettinger, San Diego Padres, baseball, rumors | 8 Comments
by Daniel Gettinger
Heath Bell is a very good reliever. Last season he threw nearly 70 innings and struck out 79 batters. His ERA of 2.71 was not a function of Petco Park. His 2.42 FIP, 3.02 xFIP, and 2.25 tERA are all evidence that Bell was not just lucky last season. This season, he projects to be just as good.
That said, the San Diego Padres should still trade Heath Bell. As good as he is, Bell is a reliever. Relievers do not add much value relative to full time position players and starters.
According to Fangraphs WAR, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Jonathan Broxton was the most valuable reliever in the major leagues last season. He accumulated 2.9 WAR. In 2008, Mariano Rivera was the league’s most valuable reliever. His WAR: 3.1.
To put this into perspective, 49 starters had a higher WAR than Broxton in 2009. Zach Greinke, the major league leader in WAR for pitchers, was at 9.4 — over three times Broxton’s WAR in 2009. As for position players, 76 players were more valuable than Jonathan Broxton in 2009. And this is in comparison to the most valuable reliever in baseball.
That said, a high quality reliever can be very useful for a good team that plays in a lot of high leverage situations. Typically when I refer to a high leverage situation, I am talking about an important moment in a particular game. In this case however, I am referring to situations that can impact whether or not a team will make the playoffs.
For teams on the playoff bubble, winning close games is immensely important. Just a game or two can be the difference between a playoff birth and a shot at the world series, and a disappointing season. The value of high quality relievers to this type of team almost certainly exceeds the baseline WAR of that player.
The Padres are not such a team. Like it or not, the Padres are not yet ready to compete for a playoff spot. Sure the team has a few nice pieces, but it is at least two years away from being truly competitive.
In itself, not being competitive this year (or even next year) is not good enough reason to justify trading Heath Bell. The real issue is that Bell’s age and contract situation does not make him a great fit for the team two or three years down the road.
Bell is 32 years old. His fastball was 3 MPH slower in 2009 than in 2007, and his slider was 4 MPH slower than in 2007. As Bell continues to age, he is likely to continue to lose velocity. He may still be an effective pitcher, but he is unlikely to be as effective.
Meanwhile, as Bell continues to age, his salary is likely to increase. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts Bell currently has a touch over four years of service time. This season, his second eligible for arbitration, he agreed to a $4MM contract. He will be eligible for arbitration once again following the 2010 season, and then eligible for free agency following the 2011 season.
Closers are well compensated by both the arbitration and free agent process. Teams still seem willing to pay a premium for saves, and arbiters seem just as willing to provide large rewards for proven closers. Typically, a player is expected to earn approximately 80% of their free agent value in their final year of arbitration. Although I don’t have the stats to back it up, I would guess that closers receive even greater percentage.
Essentially, Heath Bell is only cheap for the Padres through this season. In 2011, he will get paid between 80% and 100% of his full value, and after that, he becomes a free agent. Because the Padres are not expected to compete this season (and possibly not next), Bell does not provide as much value to the Padres as he would a better team.
Meanwhile, the Padres do have a number of possible replacements for Bell. Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson were both excellent last season, each striking out over ten batters per nine innings. Promising arms like Joe Thatcher, Adam Russel, and Ryan Webb may step up and prove to be late inning relievers as well. Replacing Bell’s production is not a huge concern.
Because the Padres are not expected to be good while Bell is both good and cheap, trading him makes a lot of sense. This is especially true because losing Bell will not be as damaging from an on-field perspective as most fans believe. The Padres do not necessarily need to trade Heath Bell today. The team should trade him at the moment they believe they can get the greatest return (taking into account possible fan backlash and decreased ticket revenue). But trading Bell this season is something that should be done.
March 25th, 2010 at 9:37 pm (#)
Daniel,
I agree the Padres should attempt to trade Heath Bell. My only question is, what kind of trade value does he actually have? he’s not particularly cheap this year, and will only get more expensive in 2011. Neither is he young, and he projects to become less effective every year from here on out.
So, what should we reasonably expect for him? From what we heard last year, the Padres were asking for an obscene amount, multiple top prospects, and presumably that’s why he wasn’t traded. Should we a expect one top prospect? One mid-level prospect? What’s your opinion?
March 26th, 2010 at 1:35 pm (#)
Very nice analysis. I am in complete agreement with the conclusion. I would like to see them work something out. The sooner they do, the more value they should realize in return.
March 26th, 2010 at 2:07 pm (#)
I agree that Bell probably should be traded. The main one is that there are suitable replacements. I have a problem with writing off seasons before they start. It is kind of like saying you probably aren’t going to pass the exam this week so you should give a better student your calculator and lecture notes. The Padres probably wont do much this year, but I feel that it is dangerous to start writing off multiple seasons. Like the Saints and Northern Iowa, you have to play the game and you generally want your best assets playing with you instead of against you.
March 26th, 2010 at 2:10 pm (#)
I am a homer be assured, but why is it that everything things the Padres are not going to compete?
I think trading Bell makes sense, but only in the context of making the Padres better now.
If the Padres constantly think they are not ready to compete now, then they never will.
We are solid at 1B, and I would say the bench.
We have good potential to be solid at 3B, LF, and SS.
CF should be decent with the platoon.
RF between Venable and Cunningham has potential.
C is a ? mark but a healthy season from Hundley with Torrealba’s guidance will answer some questions.
Our starting rotation has huge potential not knowing the ceilings on Richard, Latos, or LaBlanc or really a healthy Young. Correia and Garland are average to above average innings eaters that give us a chance to win any game.
Seasons all rest on being healthy, and I know this FO leadership is concentrating on health.
Why can’t we win our division?
March 26th, 2010 at 5:02 pm (#)
Zach-As you suggest, Bell probably does not have as much value as most fans believe. The Padres will not receive a collection of top prospects for him. But a solid haul like the Orioles received from the Dodgers last season for George Sherrill (Josh Bell-top 50 prospect and Steve Johnson) is certainly realistic.
David-Thanks
Tate-I understand your point, but do not entirely agree with it. A team should make decisions based on how it believes it will perform in various seasons. Sure there is uncertainty regarding those beliefs, but that uncertainty should be taken into account as well.
Dan-I sure hope you are correct, I just don’t see it happening this year. The Padres have a lot of league average players, but not a lot of excellent players. Its tough to win divisions with that type of roster. At the conclusion of my “projection series” (I have forecast the Padres hitters, and will do the same for pitchers next week), I will provide my best guess for wins. It should be somewhere in the mid-70s.
April 1st, 2010 at 10:01 am (#)
I’m with you Daniel.
I always look back to (and wrote about it last year) the Adrian Gonzalez for Ugueth Urbina trade back in 2003 as a precedent for the value a team can receive for a closer. The value of a closer increases as teams begin to believe they are only a “piece” away from being able to win a WS. The Twins could end up being that team around the All Star break or it could be another.
Here’s the catch: I believe the Padres will be near .500 around the All Star game and in WC contention, at which point trading Bell would lead to a warranted backlash from fans. If we’re out of it though, a fan backlash would be ridiculous, and those who complain should be put through a “special” school for incompetent baseball fans;~)
April 1st, 2010 at 6:58 pm (#)
“…those who complain should be put through a “special” school for incompetent baseball fans”
LOL! Best laugh I’ve had today. Of course, EVERY fan goes through a couple periods per season suffering from what the experts call “temporary insanity”. If there’s one fan who doesn’t go to a game for every fan who attends at least one game, the total would be over 100 million, I reckon. That’s going to be one crowded school! I hope my seat is by the window - overlooking a baseball field.
April 2nd, 2010 at 8:25 am (#)
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