State of the Bullpen: Present and Future

May 23rd, 2010  |  Published in Ben Davey, San Diego Padres, Uncategorized, baseball, prospects  |  3 Comments

Arguably the biggest reason for the San Diego Padres fast start is the work of their bullpen.

8 of the 10 relievers used by the Padres this season have a sub 4 ERA. In fact if you take away Ramos (21.21 ERA) and Gallagher (6.92 ERA), the bullpen ERA drops from a really good 3.12 ERA to an insane 2.03, while the WHIP drops from 1.08 (really good) to .892 (WOW). Russell, Stauffer, Gregerson, Thatcher, and Mujica all not only have a stellar ERA but also have a sub 1 WHIP. Russel, Bell, Gregerson, Adams, and Thatcher also average more than 1 K per inning. Needless to say, provided that Stauffer comes back healthy, the Padres do not need any help in the pen.

Are these pitchers playing over their heads? Yes… We cannot expect Stauffer to maintain his 0.39 ERA all year. Nor can we expect Gregerson to allow 11 baserunners all year. But that does no mean that if and when they regress to their norms that the numbers will not still be spectacular. The updated ZIPS projections still have Bell (2.31), Gregerson (2.93), Adams (3.48), Thatcher (3.18), Russell (3.49), and Stauffer (3.84 15 starts), all under 4.00.

All of this is great, and me telling you that our pen is excellent is not surprising. But what might be surprising is that extra depth that the Padres have in AAA and AA who could probably step into the pen right now and put up solid numbers. Here are just a few names that might be called up to replace members of the pen should more injuries or trades occur

Already on 40 man roster:

Ernesto Frieri: Frieri made his major league debut last September. Most Padres fans will not remember him as he only appeared in 2 G, working a scoreless inning in each appearance. MLB totals 2 IP, 0 H, 1 BB, 2 K. Despite being a starter for most of the past 2 years, with rotation depth the front office decided to make him the Beaver’s closer. Frieri has responded to the challenge by going 2-1, 1.50 ERA with 9 SV in 10 opportunities. More impressive is that in his 18 innings he has 27 Ks.

Frieri is a 3 pitch pitchers with a plus FB, with a deceptive delivery, that he can work to all 4 corners of the plate. He sits in the low 90’s but can top out at 95. His curve is a solid pitch, and in the past year has improved greatly. His change is a WIP which might have been why he was sent to the pen. He does need to improve on his walks (averaging 6 BB/9 IP), but he has big time stuff to fit anywhere from closer to long relief on a MLB team.

Craig Italiano: Italiano was acquired in the Scott Hairston deal #1. Italiano has always been known for having big time stuff, but his mechanical issues, and numbers resulting from that have always been the hindrance to his success. However, he comes over to Lake Elsinore, and almost immediately manager Carlos Lezcano and pitching coach Dave Rajsich work on cleaning up his mechanics. The result? His 5.63 ERA with Stockton turned into a 1.44 ERA with the Storm, and he averaged 12.64 K/9! He has since become the closer in an unbelievably stacked Mission’s bullpen where he has posted a 0.93 ERA in 19.1 IP with 8 SV. His K/9 are a bit down (7.0) but its hard to complain with the ERA.

Italiano sits consistently at 94 on his FB and can top out at 98. He has a power slurve that sits in the mid 80’s with tremendous movement. Like Frieri his change is more of a show me pitch to keep hitters from attempting to sit dead red. Either way with Italianos PF velocity and movement, as well as that power slurve, and he could step into the 9th inning of a Padre game tomorrow and be able to pick up the save.

Not on 40 man but WOW:

Mark Worrell: Lifetime minor league ERA of 3.01 with a 10.4 K/9 IP and 3.04 K/BB, Worrell has always had the stats to play at the next level. He was the centerpiece in the Khalil Greene deal was going to be a part of the Padres rotation. Injuries in ST in 09′ cost him the entire year. He might still not be completely recovered from the injury but has put up a respectable 1-0, 3.79 ERA in 19 inning in Portland. I was told to think of Cla (Meredith) except with more speed, so if he makes a mistake it is not an automatic HR.

Brandon Gomes-
Along with Italiano Gomes was ranked as one of the top 20 minor league prospects in all of baseball (by Scout.com). A change in his arm slot a few years ago turned him from minor league fodder to MLB prospect. Gomes sits in the low 90s with the ability to top out at 94-95. His best pitch though is his splitter, which is thrown with the same exact arm action as the FB. Hitters think FB and then watch the tremendous late break of the splitter, and often flail over the top or miss it completely. Add a slider that he can throw in the mid 70’s with nice action down and away to righties, and the result was 100 strikeouts last year as a reliever! Gomes has picked up where he left off with a 1-0, 1.66 ERA, and 10.8 K/9 this season (still in AA). Like Italiano, Gomes doesnt have much left to prove at AA, and in nearly any other farm system would be getting ready to make his MLB debut.

Evan Scribner
: My last entry into the way too good to be in AA goes to Evan Scribner. Scribner was the Missions closer last year and went 8-4 with a 3.07 ERA and 9.9 K/9. Outside of a stretch where Scribner blew 3 saves in 5 opportunities (in 1 week) he was nearly unhitable. I was shocked not to see Scribner promoted to AAA Portland at the beginning of the season. But like the guy that he is, he managed to take it in stride and has posted even better numbers this year. If his 4-2 record and 1.74 ERA are not good enough, than look at the 30 K in 20.2 IP and the .823 WHIP.

Scribner doesnt have as good of speed as the other prospects, consistently sitting 89-91, but he makes up for it in movement, and a tremendous 12-6 hammer. Scribner’s breaking ball is arguably the best in the organization and with a 20-25 mph difference between his FB and breaking ball he consistently make hitters look…well…like me if I were to take a swing off of him.

There are 5 names that could contribute to the Padres bullpen right now, and have great success. Even with those 5 players I could have still listed Greg Burke (2.45 ERA, 18 IP, 19 K, 0.65 WHIP), Mike DeMark (1-0, 0.60 ERA, 15 IP, 15 K, 0.80 WHIP), and Bryan Oland (0-1, 3.97 ERA, 11.1 IP, 19 K). PLUS all that is not even including every Padre fans favorite Latin American relief prospect Alexis Lara (0-1, 2.37 ERA in AA right now, best known for striking out the side in 2 innings in a late ST game this year), or Aaron Poreda (2.00 ERA and might have the best stuff of anyone if he could work on those 17 BB in 18 IP).

So with that being said, I ask one simple question. Knowing the pen that the Padres have right now, and all the depth that is waiting in the minor leagues….”If you could get a better than expected return for Heath Bell do you make the trade?” “What if you are still battling for 1st?”

Responses

  1. Didi says:

    May 24th, 2010 at 2:01 pm (#)

    Yes, I think Heath Bell will be traded this year.
    Battling for 1st shouldn’t be a hurdle to making that deal if a right one comes along.

    Not sure what the interest would be like as I think most organizations (both contending and non-contending ones) are set with the closer roles.

    Best bet would be the Phillies and the Twins. The problem is what can the Padres get back. Heck, if Tampa Bay Rays is still interested in Heath Bell at ome point, I’d love it if the Padres would try to get one of their talented prospect starting pitchers.

  2. John Conniff says:

    May 26th, 2010 at 9:02 am (#)

    Solid article Ben and you make good points about how deep the system is in the bullpen.

  3. Tom Waits says:

    May 26th, 2010 at 9:20 am (#)

    Didi, I’ll take a big piece of that action. I can’t imagine Bell going anywhere if we’re within 5 games of first or the WC. He’s still under team control for one more season. Hoyer will be content to hold onto him, even though he’s single-handedly putting fans in the cardiac wards with his high-wire saves, and explore moving him in the offseason.

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