Luis Durango called up
May 24th, 2010 | Published in Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, baseball, prospects | 17 Comments
The Padres recently called up 24 year old outfielder Luis Durango. Durango has a very unique skill-set, with great contact skills, patience, and speed. He also offers almost no power game. Check out his minor league stats, courtesy of First Inning:
| League | Age | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | BB% | K% | EXB | SB-SBA |
| RK | 19 | 239 | .342 | .473 | .384 | 15.5 | 10.5 | 7 | 19-32 |
| RK | 20 | 170 | .378 | .470 | .448 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 6 | 17-23 |
| A- | 21 | 335 | .363 | .415 | .457 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 16 | 17-27 |
| A | 22 | 385 | .300 | .383 | .358 | 12.7 | 11.2 | 14 | 14-21 |
| A+ | 22 | 87 | .431 | .506 | .514 | 14.9 | 8 | 5 | 1-1 |
| AA | 23 | 559 | .281 | .377 | .309 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 11 | 44-61 |
| AAA | 24 | 176 | .305 | .375 | .318 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 1 | 18-28 |
| Totals | - | 1956 | .326 | .418 | .378 | 12.8 | 11 | 61 | 130-194 |
*EXB: extra base hits.
As you can see, Durango does as excellent job putting the ball in play and getting on base. His career groundball rate sits at 72%, which is not necessarily a bad thing for someone with so little power. Taking walks and beating out infield singles are going to be a big part of Durango’s game, if he is to become a successful major league. In his minor league career, he also had 84 bunt hits.
Durango obviously has excellent speed, but has just managed a 67% stolen base rate in the minors. It looks like he has some work to do with that part of his running game; getting good jumps, timing pitchers, knowing when to run, etc. In the outfield, splitting time between center and left, he’s been –26 defensive runs over his career, by Total Zone.
Overall, Luis Durango has a pretty interesting set of skills, in the mold of a Juan Pierre or Luis Castillo. It’ll be interesting to see how his game translates to the major league level.
May 24th, 2010 at 12:35 pm (#)
Durango posted an IsoP of .024 in Double and Triple-A. I am really having trouble believing that such an incredible lack of power is going to fly in the big leagues.
May 24th, 2010 at 1:23 pm (#)
His speed will carry him on a Major League level for a couple years. The second he loses a step, he is going to be worthless.
May 24th, 2010 at 4:34 pm (#)
Perhaps Ray has not seen the San Diego Padres’ roster and the incredible lack of power they’ve had ever since moving into Petco. Durango is exactly the kind of player they need — if he can improve his base-stealing instincts.
I just don’t understand why so many people are down on Durango when the Padres roster is filled with guys who just can’t hit: Will Venable (.233, 49 Ks), Jerry Hairston (.225), Oscar Salazar (.214), Everth Cabrera (.212), Tony Gwynn (.183), Matt Stairs (.162) and Kyle Blanks (.157). That’s just awful. Now the Padres have someone who can get on base ahead of Eckstein, Gonzalez, Headley and Torrealba. Now the Padres only have three gaping holes in their lineup, and hopefully Scott Hairston will fill one when he comes off the DL.
May 24th, 2010 at 7:27 pm (#)
Ray, Pierre’s minor league career ISO was .062 and Castillo’s was .049. Durango’s is .052.
Obviously, I’m picking those guys because they happened to become successful major leaguers, and have a similar skill-set to Durango, but I think they give us some hope for Durango’s future.
John, I’m not too down on Durango. If anything, he’s an interesting guy and I wouldn’t mind seeing him get a shot. If he can hit around the .300 range in the majors, I think he could be fine. It’d help if he was excellent defensively, but the reports (and numbers) say differently. Hopefully, he can harness his speed, and improve his defense and base running numbers.
May 24th, 2010 at 8:11 pm (#)
Just to add some balance, Joey Gathright has a minor league career IsoP was .059,
May 24th, 2010 at 8:45 pm (#)
And he can jump over cars!
Exactly, though — I was actually thinking of doing a mini-study on players with comparable MiLB #s to Durango, but I did not know of a database where I could get career minor league stats.
The best way to look at it –something like a PECOTA or many of the other systems do — is to look at all players with a similar skill-set, and see how they develop. For every Pierre and Castillo, there are probably multiple Gathright’s.
May 25th, 2010 at 10:26 am (#)
I don’t know what to make of Durango.
As Ray points out, his “power” disappeared in the upper minors. Castillo held his power — what there was — in the higher levels. Pierre did, too, although it was only 107 games in AA. But Durango is still getting on, and the scouting report must be widely available on him now. I don’t buy that minor league outfielders are playing him straight up but will cheat in on him in the majors. The PCL and Texas League have played him close and it didn’t hurt his core skill of hitting for a high average and taking walks. The closeness of the outfielders is a likely explanation of why his ISO dropped. He’s not able to take the extra base on a ball to the outfield anymore. Maybe he wasn’t hitting in any harder in A ball, but he was getting a lot of extra bases that aren’t available now.
John, those are legit concerns, but most of those players did hit in the minors. It’s partly Petco and partly adjusting to the majors that explains their current struggles. Durango probably isn’t immune.
Another thing that makes comps difficult is Durango’s sheer lack of size. He’s listed at 5′9″, two inches shorter than Castillo, who looks tiny compared to his peers. 5′9″ may be generous. Durango’s strike zone is the size of a hardback novel. He’s not the easiest guy to throw strikes against.
May 26th, 2010 at 12:49 am (#)
Durango is not a legit major league player. His BB rate has declined, K rate has increased and “power” disappeared as the level of competition increased.
The average will decline further at the major league level, and the BB/K rates will continue to move in the wrong directions. He will not be able to get on base enough to be a productive offensive player.
A player who cannot get the ball out of the infield is not exactly the kind of player the Padres need in Petco.
May 26th, 2010 at 8:30 am (#)
Pat, that’s not exactly true, although your conclusion could definitely still be valid.
Durango’s walk rate went up from rookie ball to High A, and then it took a tiny dip in AA. It’s down further the first two months of 2010, but as he climbed the first three rungs of the ladder his BB rate got better, not worse.
If we figure his combined A ball K rate, at all 3 levels, is in the 10% neighborhood, then his AA and AAA rates of 12.5 represent something like 12 more strikeouts over an entire season. I’d be more convinced if the rate had doubled, which has happened to plenty of prospects.
There’s no way that Texas and Pacific Coast league managers weren’t pinching him. They want to win as badly as anybody else. His production has declined, but his home parks weren’t hitter-friendly and his numbers were still very good.
I’m not saying he’s bound to succeed. It seems more likely that he’d be a 5th outfielder for a few years. But his statistical profile is more complicated than that, and since we’re getting very little offense from CF or LF right now anyway, he’s not going to hurt us. I’d like to see Denorfia get an extended shot before him.
May 26th, 2010 at 10:01 am (#)
One good thing with Durango, he truly won’t be negatively impacted by Petco!
His power numbers have dropped in the higher levels, but that is just observed performance. I’m not sure that it means he won’t hit for any power in the big leagues (by power, I generally mean doubles and triples).
I think he’s an interesting player to watch, and a little bit better of a prospect than some are giving him credit for.
May 26th, 2010 at 2:53 pm (#)
I think Durango will be Freddy Guzman ver. 2.0 & I hope i’m wrong.
May 27th, 2010 at 1:58 am (#)
TW, for a guy playing AAA (and now having received a call up) I’m not looking at Rookie ball and Low A numbers. His BB rate has indeed dropped from AA to AAA, and rather significantly although it’s still a small sample for AAA. Maybe the K rate hasn’t increased all that much, but it sure will against big league pitchers, imo.
May 27th, 2010 at 7:07 am (#)
Pat, “as the level of competition increased,” Durango’s walk rate has only dropped once. In the toughest jump, from High A to AA, his BB rate was a mere .4% lower. His K rate from AA to AAA is exactly the same.
His walks will go down and his strikeouts will go up in the majors, but that happens to almost everybody. He may not have the skills to be even a platoon player, but his track record is a little too robust to say for sure that his lack of power completely cripples him.
May 27th, 2010 at 11:07 am (#)
Pat, I want to emphasize that I am skeptical of Durango’s possible contributions. I’m just not as skeptical as I was of players like Humberto Quintero or Luis Rodriguez. There’s more cause for cautious optimism with Durango — even though his lack of power is a big concern, it might not be fatal in his case.
May 28th, 2010 at 6:13 am (#)
OK, I’m looking at the chart wrong. I was looking at higher BB% as being worse. So he actually improved his walk rate from A to AA (I don’t consider 87 PA’s at high A relevant), but then dropped significantly this year in AAA, although in a small sample. Yes, K rate this year is the same, but higher than A ball and he is now K-ing more than BB-ing.
I just don’t see him as being a viable big league hitter. Where are the comps? Who does he look like as a AA and AAA player who has been successful in the bigs? I haven’t found anyone. Guys who have come up and failed/been below average who are similar all had more power than him in the minors.
May 28th, 2010 at 10:45 am (#)
There’s not going to be an exact comp for Durango. His minor league path was unusual for a Latin player — didn’t even play stateside until he was 20. Some of the players who are in his neighborhood, like Castillo, were called to the majors early. Another problem is that for the last 20 years or so there’s been a selection bias towards power hitters, especially in the outfield. You almost have to look back to the mid-60s through mid-80s to find enough powerless starters to act as a reasonable sounding board, and then you run into issues comparing the different minor league environments.
Durango spent hardly any time in High A and he’s only 1/3 of the way through a AAA season, so looking for statistical comps is something of a lost cause. But from a physical tools standpoint he’s not dissimilar to Castillo, Pierre, Brett Butler, maybe even Richie Ashburn. All small speedy men who didn’t hit for power in the majors. There’s almost no chance that Durango is ever as good as the worst of those players, but it’s not a non-zero chance. Since Gwynn Jr might as well be hitting with a rubber chicken right now, giving Durango a chance doesn’t hurt us.
The point at which his most likely outcome and the most valuable outcome intersect is probably as a 4th/5th outfielder who offers better speed, defense, and bunting ability than many of his peers.
May 29th, 2010 at 2:36 am (#)
Thanks for the insights, Tom!