On The Road With Madfriars: Portland
June 27th, 2010 | Published in Ben Davey, San Diego Padres, baseball, interviews, prospects | 15 Comments
John Conniff is a senior writer for MadFriars.com, a webzine that covers the San Diego Padres minor league system, and a free-lance contributor to Baseball America and 619 Sports.net. As in the past, we caught up with him to get his impressions on his third trip of the year to the AAA Portland Beavers.
1. What happened to Mark Worrell? He was doing tremendous than sort of ran into bad game after bad game?
John Conniff: You know its tough to tell. As you said he got off to a good start in April and then kind of ran into some bad outings. Right now he’s pretty far down on the bullpen chart in Portland with Ernesto Frieri, Scott Munter, Adam Russell and Aaron Poreda all ahead of him on the depth chart let alone in San Antonio.
2. What are the fans impressions of losing the team next year?
John Conniff: The majority of my time was in Eugene, so I was only in Portland for a game but just by talking with people around the Beavers it hasn’t been a good season. The night I was at the park, ironically the same night Geoff Young of Ducksnorts was there, but we missed each other, it was as dead as any minor league stadium that I have been too. I think its equal parts that the team isn’t going to be there next year and the other is that the team just isn’t very good this year.
3. Going into the year the Padres were raving about a guy they claimed off waivers named Dusty Ryan. Ryan is currently hitting .129 in AAA and struggling. Is he really the player the Padres hyped him up to be or is he the .129 hitting catcher that we are watching in Portland?
John Conniff: The people that I spoke with, who want to remain anonymous, believe he is the catcher that we are seeing now. One of them said he was the worst hitter that they saw in the PCL this year.
4. Every year the Padres appear to have stacked teams in San Antonio, Lake Elsinore, and Fort Wayne, and yet in the past few years the Beavers have been a wasteland for talent. The prospects that do come to Portland in years past either struggle (Antonelli, Zawadzki, Cunningham) or are gone so fast before they can really give the Beaver fans something to be excited about (Venable, Blanks, Headley). Who in Portland currently should Padre fans, and Beaver fans, be excited about? Are there any future Padre starters on that team?
John Conniff: I think there are a few. For pitchers I really like Ernesto Frieri, who has put up some pretty good numbers for a closer on a bad team. Adam Russell, who is struggling now, I think also will eventually end up in the Padres’ bullpen as well. For position players, if you give Lance Zawadzki a mulligan for April, he’s played pretty well and I’ve always been a big fan of his game. I like Luis Durrango too, but I’m not sure as an everyday player. Finally I’ve always been a big fan of Mike Baxter, who can play both corners of the infield, all three outfield positions and even serve as an emergency catcher if needed.
In many ways AAA is my least favorite of all the levels to go too because its really a place where for most players their dreams of being a major league player end. You have so many players that have major league experience that it didn’t work out for and are just hanging on. On the other side you have players that have performed well in the lower leagues, but not quite good enough to really earn a spot on a big league roster.
Most of the guys have also been doing this for three or four years and their bonuses were some time ago. Its one thing to be playing pro baseball for little or no money at 19 or 21, quite another when you are over 25 and starting to wonder if you made the right career decision.
June 28th, 2010 at 10:42 am (#)
Tekotte deserved a promotion to AA, but moving Hunter up to Portland puts him with our worst team and possibly back in a CF rotation with Durango.
The team faces some tough 40 man questions in the second half. They may be in desperate need of pitching reinforcements, and several promising arms aren’t on the roster yet. They may need to cut Carrillo and Ramos to make room for players like Scribner/Gomes/Oland.
June 28th, 2010 at 7:05 pm (#)
Tom, NO! They can’t cut BOTH of our Cesars! They both got a look-see last year, and it doesn’t look like Carrillo impressed Bud and Darren at all. Ramos, though, got a call up earlier this year, and though he sure didn’t take advantage, he’s a lefty. Lefthanders are so rare that just average is enough to get another shot.
Given the logjam caused by bringing in 9 pitchers in trades last year, what are the chances of the Padres moving up a passel of pitchers from San Antonio next year to load up the new triple-A franchise, wherever it may be?
June 29th, 2010 at 12:57 pm (#)
I come not to praise Cesars, but to bury them. I care only for the K/9 and K/BB rates.
Come September, with Latos nearly out of innings and Richard + LeBlanc working in uncharted IP territory, we may not be able to afford giving another opportunity to Ramos at the expense of a more talented pitcher.
The Padres could have a very solid pitching staff in AAA next year, fronted by Castro. Or they could keep their best pitching prospects in AA (to benefit from their home park) while promoting hitters like Darnell to the friendlier confines of AAA.
June 29th, 2010 at 3:46 pm (#)
Do we know where their Triple A franchise will be next season?
June 29th, 2010 at 6:21 pm (#)
I’m aware Latos has had very limited innings in his short pro career, but I don’t understand the IP concern over the lefties. LeBlanc pitched 167 innings last year between the majors and triple-A, and did his best work in his last seven starts in the majors. He pitched 160 innings overall in ‘08 and 149 in ‘07. I don’t see where 32 starts would hurt him.
Richard pitched 153 innings last year, all in the majors (26 starts), and 175 innings total in ‘08. He had 161 minor league innings in ‘07 too. They’ve both shown they can get major leaguers out, and workload is a problem only if you ignore minor league innings.
Correia doesn’t look good now, but he went through a similar stretch in late June-early July last year too. His last 13 starts from late July to the end of last season were pretty good, judging by the average 6.5 innings/start and 2.66 ERA over that stretch. I think Bud will keep him in the rotation.
Anyway, if they need a spot starter, there’s always Gallagher and Mujica, with Geer waiting in Portland!
June 29th, 2010 at 7:15 pm (#)
Geer will never appear in a Padres uniform again.
Larry, its not that LeBlanc and Richard will be limited IP wise, but that they have never thrown that many innings so it will be unclear how they will perform. I also dont see the Padres shutting down Mat if they are still in contention. The front office knows that Mat has essentially been our best pitcher this year, so shutting him down will only hurt us.
If the Padres really need a left handed reliever they would probably call up Poreda instead of Ramos (both are on the 40 man roster). I am part of the mass majority that think that a bad lefty shouldnt be on a team just because they are left handed. Padres have plenty of RHP that do well against LHB. Frieri .173 BAA, Scribner .237, Italiano .186, DeMark .210. All have solid numbers against LHB. BTW Ramos vs lefties in AAA 10 hits in 35 AB, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HR…yep we definitely need him in our pen
June 29th, 2010 at 8:11 pm (#)
Good teams don’t hope. They plan.
Neither LeBlanc nor Richard has broken the 200 IP mark. We can assume that they’ve never faced a series of high-intensity games like we all want them to face in August and September, when they’re bearing down on every pitch. That’s uncharted territory. Maybe they’ll be just fine, maybe Correia will regain his 2009 form. Hey, maybe Chris Young will be healthy in September. If they can afford it, they shouldn’t count on maybes.
Holding Latos to their pre-season limit of 150, or even lower in hopes of him staying strong in the playoffs, they’re going to need 70-100 innings from somebody. I disagree with Ben — they will limit Latos, just as Hoyer saw happen with Bucholtz in Boston. They’re not risking a potential 75 million (or more) in surplus value over the next 5 years. It may not be 150, but they’re going to manage his workload.
Gallagher + Mujica are not competitive options, while Geer is god-awful. The in-house choice to replace Latos and/or Correia is Tim Stauffer. That’s not a bad choice, but Hoyer knows pitching depth can turn into a mirage in the blink of an eye.
As for the LOOGY, between Poreda’s walks and Ramos’ hittability, we should all hope for Thatcher’s continued health.
June 29th, 2010 at 10:37 pm (#)
Tom,
From everything I have read - and what most of the people in Portland seemed said off of the record - they believe the team will be in Tucson unless its sold to someone else.
While I agree with Ben that Stauffer is the next option as a starter, you also may want to look at Will Inman, who is having a better year than Carrillo or Geer.
I’m not saying I would put Inman in the rotation, but he has some decent numbers.
June 30th, 2010 at 12:23 pm (#)
Worrell got cut …
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100629&content_id=11730774¬ebook_id=11739970&vkey=notebook_sd&fext=.jsp&c_id=sd
June 30th, 2010 at 12:38 pm (#)
The Padres’ supply of fill-in starters has dwindled. Inman went on the DL with an elbow strain last week. He and Liz were the only Portland starters getting enough strikeouts to be decent options for 6+ major league starts.
I’d move Cedric Hunter and an arm, msybe as good an arm as Pelzer, for Ted Lilly. Don’t know if the Cubs are looking for an OF, but Hunter is one of our only position prospects who has produced this season.
An off-the-wall option would be to replace the marginal players on the 40 man with our top minor league relievers, and in September turn Latos into a 3 inning starter.
June 30th, 2010 at 2:24 pm (#)
Ben, relax. I was just kidding about Gallagher, Mujica and Geer. Lilly sounds great, but his #13 million contract doesn’t. My gut feeling is the Padres won’t be making any trades, or Hoyer wouldn’t be getting married and going on his honeymoon in July. I can see them picking up a couple castoffs and giving them a look in Portland, maybe bringing one up for a short stretch.
If they don’t want to move anybody off the 40-man roster or pay out money or prospects, they might just bring up a starting pitcher from AA. Towers has done that more than once, and I wouldn’t put it past Jed doing that too. This year was originally a shakedown cruise, to see what the kids could do all year after the 37-25 finish last year. The talk of team chemistry leads me to think they don’t want to mess with a good thing.
The cheapest, most efficient move is to stay with the original game plan and see what the kids can do in the heat of a pennant race they got themselves into. I guess Moorad’s perfectly happy to take the heat if they come up just short, but in the long run, it may be the right thing to do.
June 30th, 2010 at 2:45 pm (#)
The salary of a midseason pickup is a real concern — we don’t know how much the Padres can actually afford. We’d need about 4 million to pay Lilly if he was acquired late in July.
Moorad may also be interested in convincing the fans that he’s a different breed of cat than John Moores. Despite Moores’ past claims to the contrary, there is a real, measurable revenue benefit from making the playoffs.
July 1st, 2010 at 2:20 pm (#)
I was just attempting to state the obvious on Geer, no worries Larry.
Im not sure if the Padres pitching depth is weak, or ifs its just that none of them are on the 40 man roster. I would imagine that (as Larry mentioned) the Padres could call up Luebke, Castro, or Hefner and do as good if not better than Correia.
Another name to keep an eye on will be Steve Garrison. He is back in Portland after being out since the AFL. If he can put together a few solid starts I wouldnt be surprised to see him get a look at in SD.
July 1st, 2010 at 2:46 pm (#)
Although Correia has struggled badly, I wouldn’t be too sure of replacing him with a prospect. We’ve seen many prospects, for the Padres and other teams, fail miserably after seeming to be very solid in the upper minors. Even if the failures aren’t permanent, we’re only looking at a 2-3 month window.
Remember back in 2004, when we traded Ismael Valdez because some combination of Hitchcock, Germano, and Tankersley would do as good or better? We swapped one below-average starter for three below-average starters. The prospects Ben mentions could do better than Correia, and maybe our financial situation makes them the best choices, but there’s still a real, and fairly big, chance that they don’t pitch any better than Correia has or would.
Ben, you’re exactly right on the depth question. The best SP prospects aren’t on the 40 man now. That’s why I brought up clearing off the Cesars, Dusty Ryan, and others.
July 2nd, 2010 at 8:35 am (#)
[...] On The Road With Madfriars: Portland (Friar Forecast). John Conniff talks about the Portland Beavers. He also hits up the Emeralds. [...]