Buy or sell: Is there any question?
July 3rd, 2010 | Published in Myron Logan, San Diego Padres, baseball | 15 Comments
Normally a team sitting at 47-33 in early July, with a 3.5 game lead in the division, is almost certainly going to be “buyers” at the deadline. The idea, of course, is that a team in that position is set up to make a run at the playoffs, if not the World Series. Adding players at the deadline both increases the team’s chance of making the playoffs and going deep into the playoffs once they get there.
The San Diego Padres (47-33, 3.5 game lead, conveniently just like our theoretical team above), then, are going to be buyers at the deadline, right? Right? Well, according to Dave Cameron and Tim Marchman, maybe they shouldn’t be. Marchman, I think, is a little extreme and off-base with his take, and he receives some deserved, if not slightly over the top, criticism at GLB. Cameron is more fair with his assessment.
Anyway, the issue, if you don’t read the articles, is that the Padres are not your typical 47-33 first place club. Yes, they are playing good, and undoubtedly they are better than the preseason projections. However, there’s little doubt that they *should* come back to Earth a bit in the second half. The argument can be made that they should stick with their original plan, before all of this winning baseball got in the way, which was likely to trade players like Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell at the deadline, getting as much value out of their star players as possible, and rebuilding for a future perennial contender.
That’s a fair argument and I don’t think it is crazy, but I am not going to make it. The old adage, “flags fly forever,” rings true. Sure, the Padres could look to build a powerhouse in, say, 2012 or 13, but that plan – acquiring a “can’t miss” prospect or two for veteran stars with expiring contracts – might not materialize either. Meanwhile, the Padres sit in first place, and adding a couple of legitimate players at the deadline will only increase the likelihood that they will be playing post-season baseball this season, and if not, at least be in contention through September. It is not easy to build a .588 team with a good shot at the playoffs, so once it happens, even if by accident, it doesn’t usually make sense to disassemble it.
Further, giving up on a season like this, even if it is the correct decision long-term, will never sit well with a fan base. While you can’t always try to please the fans – Jed Hoyer was part of a Red Sox front office that traded Nomar Garciaparra during the 2004 season; it turned out okay – it would be scary to see the reaction in San Diego after blowing up a first place team and dealing away the franchise player.
July 3rd, 2010 at 11:49 am (#)
I agree, Myron.
I think it’s likely that the Padres will attempt to split the difference–they’ll try to add a couple complimentary pieces like a new 5th starter to take Correia’s spot and a bench bat to replace Stairs, without having to give up any favorite prospects.
I’m not holding my breath for Cliff Lee.
July 3rd, 2010 at 11:53 am (#)
Not to be self-aggrandizing, but I suggested Kevin Millwood on GLB the other day. Basically, when you look at his underlying numbers (Ks, BBs) he is still pretty good. The issue is mostly home runs and BABIP, which are almost entirely explainable by ballpark and crappy Baltimore defense. I think a move out of the AL East and into Petco Park would do wonders for him. Dave Cameron on Fangraphs suggested a couple weeks ago he could be this year’s version of Carl Pavano.
July 3rd, 2010 at 2:34 pm (#)
I think Cameron and Marchman are only half right. Maybe the Padres would do best to leave the club alone and see how far they can go. Think of them as the miracle nobodys, the little team that could. If they go all the way, it’s a dream season. If they come up short, it’s still the baseball story of the year, and a shot in the arm for the franchise.
Where Cameron and Marchman go horribly wrong is in believing the Padres can get the most value in a midseason trade for Heath or Adrian. They still control both for next year, and the best value can be had in the offseason without the recriminations that breaking up a winning team midseason would produce.
The Padres are not your conventional contender. There’s nobody having a career year, even the pitching isn’t too far ahead of their track record, except for guys who didn’t have much track record to begin with. Several position players are actually playing below their track records and can improve in the second half. That might offset any dip in the pitching, making trades unnecessary.
Jed has said the Padres would be very active, but that doesn’t mean he’ll actually make any trades. The team has put him in the rare position (for a franchise under reconstruction) of gathering valuable intelligence that can be used in the future, maybe as soon as the next offseason.
The pundits, commentators and bloggers can speculate for the next month over trading the potential of lefties like Poreda and Luebke for a two month rental, but I personally hope the Padres stand pat and send Jed on an espionage junket of a lifetime, preserving the potential of a magical season while gathering the data to make better decisions in the very important coming offseason.
July 3rd, 2010 at 2:36 pm (#)
Millwood is not a bad choice. Personally, I like Ted Lilly a little bit better, but they are relatively close, both in terms of contract and projected performance. I think Lilly, with extreme fly ball tendencies, would fit in nicely with Petco and the good outfield defense.
July 3rd, 2010 at 2:40 pm (#)
Larry, great points. Hard to argue with any of that, though if the Padres are still rolling by late July, I think it makes a lot of sense to at least add some depth, without giving up any top prospects, to make a stronger push at the postseason (and success, once there).
July 3rd, 2010 at 5:07 pm (#)
I think that what these articles are trying to say is that, in a vacuum, the best move for the Padres would be to trade Adrian. The slight shame is that the team’s hot start has put them in a position where they can’t do the strategic thing.
Now, if you believe this team has a legit shot at going all the way, then you’re probably right to think of them as ridiculous, but if you entertain the idea that the Padres are in store for a steep drop, then there’s merit to what they’re saying. As a small market team, any risk we take is magnified by our nonexistent margin of error and going for it this year is a risk.
July 4th, 2010 at 6:12 pm (#)
I do not see why this team “has to come down to earth”.
Will the pitching staff continue to give up zero runs in the 7-9th innings? No. But as we have seen in the last couple days the Padres are completely capable of scoring late too. I do not know why everyone things Adrian has to be traded this year. I think that Adrian will be just as valuable either walking (and getting a 1st round pick + supplemental pick) or just resigning the guy after we get some capital following a post-season run.
Winning teams are winning teams, and we are winning with what we have. If we can pick up a little depth trading for a starter in a salary dump like situation (Millwood). We would not have to give up vital prospects. Prospects are so risky that the marginal difference between trading for or drafting prospects is not worth what Adrian could bring to a couple winning seasons.
July 4th, 2010 at 9:38 pm (#)
Dan, with regards to coming down to earth, I think the idea is that *most* .588 teams are going to come back toward .500. And the Padres, who were a projected .450-.500 team, might come back a little harder. I don’t think that it’s definitely going to happen — anything can happen over three months of baseball — but I wouldn’t disagree with someone suggesting the Padres play, say, .510 baseball from here on out.
I agree with the rest of what you said. I am certainly not in favor of trading Adrian this season, unless the Padres completely fall out of it in the next month (which is highly unlikely).
July 4th, 2010 at 10:16 pm (#)
Myron, even if the Padres do play .510 baseball from here on out, they would still end up winning 90 games, which could be enough for a playoff spot. With their great play to date, the Padres have built themselves something of a cushion.
July 4th, 2010 at 10:18 pm (#)
Also, I think Lilly is a fine option. I just looked at Millwood because I feel like he should cost less given his poor ERA and W/L. Also, he’s underperforming his underlying stats while Lilly is overperforming them. I’m afraid that Lilly would regress in the second half and not be as effective.
July 4th, 2010 at 11:56 pm (#)
Zach/#9 — Exactly, that’s why I’m pro-buy at the deadline.
#10 — I still like Lilly better overall, but yeah it definitely depends on cost. If Millwood could be had for nothing, and Lilly would require a good prospect or two, then I’d probably be all for Millwood.
I think adding a pitcher like that plus a bat would be ideal, and I don’t think it is out of the question for the Padres, if Hoyer and company can convince the ownership that it will add revenue in the end.
July 5th, 2010 at 12:25 pm (#)
Myron, I definitely agree they need an arm and a bat. They’ll especially need the SP if they’re going to give Latos a rest in August like Hoyer talked about. Hopefully he can talk Moorad into freeing up payroll, or he can talk whoever the trading partner is into forking over some cash.
July 6th, 2010 at 10:26 am (#)
They are 19-10 in 1 run games, but this team has been very consistent. They have one streak, and since then have basically crawled up their win pct a series at a time. I hold my breath any time they play a contender, but they are winning.
You cannot toss aside seasons like this, unless the package you are receiving is so obviously potent that you cannot pass it up. You don’t sell high just to sell high when your team is in first. Honestly, KT spoiled us. Contending is a rare, rare thing for most small market teams. Do not assume we have will have plenty of seasons like this waiting for us.
You don’t trade away the farm because there is not much there and we need that to build on. Pick up the type of players that I think Hoyer should have gotten in the off-season. Guys that cost 3-6m a year, play OK enough D but can produce well above replacement level. I would get the type of starters mentioned: someone that can replace Corriea and soften the impact the fewer innings Latos will pitch, but not a star.
I’ve said it other places and been derided. I wish we had signed Burrell. 300k for 945 OPS in 27 games. Yes, we give some of that back on his D, but c’mon. For 300k and no prospects relinquished?
July 7th, 2010 at 11:08 pm (#)
jay - definitely. Agree with most all of your points there.
July 9th, 2010 at 8:43 am (#)
[...] Buy or sell: Is there any question? (Friar Forecast). I was going to write about this earlier in the week but then, as he so often does, Myron said what I would have said: “It is not easy to build a .588 team with a good shot at the playoffs, so once it happens, even if by accident, it doesn’t usually make sense to disassemble it.” Yeah, you pretty much have to go for it. The thing is, I’m not sure more than a few minor tweaks are needed. [...]