Latos Is Good…But Not This Good
July 25th, 2010 | Published in Daniel Gettinger, Mat Latos, San Diego Padres, baseball | 6 Comments
Mat Latos has had a fantastic season. He has struck out 106 batters compared to only 30 walks in 112 innings pitched. His 2.48 ERA is accompanied by 11 wins to 4 losses. Not bad for a second year pitcher.
Latos has great stuff. His 94 mph fastball is 1.63 runs above average per 100 pitches, and he throws it about 60 percent of the time. His slider is actually better on a per-pitch basis–2.82 runs above average per 100 pitches–and is thrown one quarter of the time. Latos’s change-up, his next most frequently thrown pitch is also over a run per hundred pitches above average.
Basically, Latos is young, has good stuff, and has learned how to use that stuff effectively.
The thing is, as good as Latos has been, he has not been 2.48 ERA good. His FIP stands at 3.35, and his xFIP is 3.51. Both numbers are incredibly solid, but suggest that Latos has been a bit lucky this season.
The main driver has been a ridiculously low BABIP. Latos’s BABIP is a miniscule 0.251, fourth lowest in the National League amongst Fangraph’s qualified pitchers.
Latos has also been great at stranding runners, rather than allowing them to score. His 84.2 percent strand rate is also fourth lowest in the National League (Wade LeBlanc at 85.7 percent leads the league).
Mat Latos is a solid pitcher, and projects to be very good going forward. But, a low BABIP, low strand rate, and the wonders of Petco Park have combined to make a good pitcher look like a Cy-Young pitcher. Latos might be one some day, but he is not there quite yet.
July 26th, 2010 at 3:17 pm (#)
Daniel,
While you’re right that the strand rate is pretty high, his entire season FIP is being weighted down by a lousy April.
His FIP in April: 5.91
Now here it is for the other months of the season:
May: 2.59
June: 3.01
July: 2.82
So while his ERA is being depressed by a low BABIP and strand rate, it isn’t THAT much of a disparity, especially when you look at how he’s pitched since April.
July 26th, 2010 at 8:17 pm (#)
At some point, the Petco factor needs to be given up. Latos has pitched 7 games at home and 11 on the road. His ERA is higher on the road (2.63 vs 2.23 at home), but his WHIP is lower on the road (0.980 va 1.015 at home),his K/9 is higher on the road (9.2 vs 7.3 at home) his batting average given up is lower on the road (.191 vs .210 at home), and even his road Babip is lower (.231 vs .252 at home).
Road stats like that indicate he’s not a Petco creature. They also indicate he might actually be that good. You can look for black clouds on the horizon, in the form of abnormal strand rates and fielding-independent measures, but I’m willing to enjoy the sunshine while it lasts.
July 27th, 2010 at 7:56 am (#)
[...] Latos Is Good…But Not This Good (Friar Forecast). Daniel isn’t impressed with Mat Latos’ success in 2010. [...]
July 27th, 2010 at 9:57 am (#)
Well, it’s a good thing that Mat Latos doesn’t pitch without a defense, huh? Latos is a very good young pitcher who seems to be getting better as he develops his secondary pitches. He’s got a very good defense behind him and a ballpark that will erase some mistakes.
Yes, in a neutral ballpark with a neutral defense he’d likely have a higher ERA. You can say that for almost all the ERA leaders.
July 28th, 2010 at 6:32 pm (#)
Who wrote this? Morosi? Who thinks the Padres would be 10 games out at the AllStar break? Put the author on these stupid articles. Latos has been as good or better on the road. A great pitcher has the ability to bear down when he needs to. If you do the same stats on hall of fame pitchers, you will see the same as Latos. I don’t understand why the east coast writers slam what they have not seen. Get a grip! San Diego will be there when it’s all said and done.
Morosi, you suck!
July 29th, 2010 at 3:22 pm (#)
Jerry, get ahold of yourself! Lokk at the tags at the top. The author is usually the first name listed, in this case, Daniel Gettinger, NOT J.P.Morosi.
It’s not a slam on Latos, just a reminder that Mat’s performance is not all sweetness and light, as some might think. There are statistical negatives, and sometimes those negatives can reveal a future problem. That’s all Daniel was pointing out.
I know the mainstream sportswriters haven’t been kind to the Padres, with assessments ranging from dismissive to insulting. That drumbeat has aggravated fans, the Padres front office and the players themselves, but let’s keep it in perspective.